Agonizing-Precedent — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$67

Unrealized P&L

-$48

Hit rate

58.0%

Resolved

160

Trades

383

lifetime

Volume

$2.81K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$14

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-13

last 05-10 16:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 15 days

Categories

Crypto

85% 38% -$8

Politics

14% 0% -$59

Other

1% 33% +$0

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-10).

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes		+347	$54	3¢	$12	-$42	05-10 14:07
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes		+84	$8	2¢	$2	-$6	05-07 13:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-17 23:10 UTC	2	$292	204	196	+8	Down	+$104	04-17 23:15
Trump out as President before 2027?	6	$186	857	510	+347	open	—	05-10 14:07
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	2	$84	298	298	+0	Yes	-$5	05-04 00:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-17 22:55 UTC	2	$77	50	49	+2	Down	+$21	04-17 23:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-17 19:25 UTC	4	$75	178	61	+118	Down	+$0	04-17 19:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-17 23:00 UTC	1	$48	93	0	+93	Down	+$45	04-17 23:00
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026?	2	$46	329	329	+0	Yes	-$11	04-19 01:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-19 16:45 UTC	10	$41	103	51	+52	Up	-$3	04-19 16:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 12:25 UTC	3	$40	29	28	+1	Down	+$15	04-13 12:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 19:10 UTC	2	$40	23	23	+0	Up	+$6	04-18 19:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 16:00 UTC	3	$37	26	25	+1	Down	+$14	04-13 16:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 15:45 UTC	5	$37	32	25	+7	Down	+$14	04-13 15:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 16:50 UTC	2	$37	29	28	+1	Down	+$20	04-13 16:55
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	2	$36	656	144	+511	Yes	-$24	05-04 00:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-19 01:15 UTC	3	$35	50	13	+37	Down	-$9	04-19 01:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-17 21:00 UTC	2	$34	27	26	+1	Up	+$18	04-17 21:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-19 01:20 UTC	2	$32	20	19	+0	Down	+$7	04-19 01:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-19 02:20 UTC	6	$31	36	34	+1	Down	-$4	04-19 02:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 17:00 UTC	3	$31	44	21	+23	Up	-$11	04-13 17:02
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-14 22:35 UTC	3	$31	62	18	+44	Down	+$6	04-14 22:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 19:15 UTC	4	$30	49	47	+2	Up	-$19	04-18 19:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-17 18:50 UTC	3	$30	174	0	+174	Down	-$30	04-17 18:52
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-14 21:45 UTC	2	$30	21	20	+1	Down	+$11	04-14 21:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-17 22:15 UTC	4	$30	30	29	+1	Down	-$4	04-17 22:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-19 01:30 UTC	2	$29	43	41	+2	Down	+$9	04-19 01:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-14 20:20 UTC	2	$29	20	20	+1	Down	+$10	04-14 20:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-14 21:25 UTC	2	$29	20	19	+1	Up	+$9	04-14 21:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 18:25 UTC	4	$28	64	61	+4	Up	+$5	04-18 18:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-19 02:10 UTC	4	$28	25	24	+1	Up	+$3	04-19 02:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-17 23:05 UTC	2	$28	19	19	+1	Down	+$9	04-17 23:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-10 16:07:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xfdda08…
05-10 16:06:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0xcedbbf…
05-10 16:05:31	Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	9z	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x29ebdb…
05-10 14:24:13	Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	9z	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0xbd905b…
05-10 14:18:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x4017f5…
05-10 14:18:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	SELL	2	83¢	$1	0xe06415…
05-10 14:16:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x56c0f8…
05-10 14:16:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xb12fe9…
05-10 14:15:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x5b7934…
05-10 14:15:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x06861d…
05-10 14:14:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x1d8111…
05-10 14:14:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	SELL	2	42¢	$1	0x119195…
05-10 14:13:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	SELL	2	69¢	$1	0xdf7ceb…
05-10 14:11:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xc05987…
05-10 14:10:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x4c61c6…
05-10 14:10:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x85d4aa…
05-10 14:07:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x7d9ef0…
05-10 14:07:22	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	SELL	18	11¢	$2	0xedb4e5…
05-10 13:51:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x665c3e…
05-10 13:50:48	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	SELL	4	11¢	$0	0xf0774d…
05-08 19:47:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x3acf4a…
05-08 19:47:18	Will Trump say "Scam" or "Fraud" this week?	No	SELL	6	24¢	$1	0x0fc65d…
05-08 18:29:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x0d8a17…
05-08 18:29:09	Will Trump say "Nuke" in May?	Yes	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x4b0d44…
05-07 23:48:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x890caa…
05-07 19:02:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	SELL	4	5¢	$0	0x69bcb4…
05-07 19:01:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x417a88…
05-07 19:01:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xd835eb…
05-07 18:57:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xca8fce…
05-07 18:57:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x0a0f12…
05-07 18:57:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x7e2bab…
05-07 18:56:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xd70404…
05-07 18:56:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xa8d997…
05-07 18:55:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xf7ec77…
05-07 18:55:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x92295f…
05-07 18:55:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x69054d…
05-07 18:51:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xa15ea1…
05-07 18:50:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xe23763…
05-07 18:50:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x4b7fcd…
05-07 16:58:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x80cc74…
05-07 16:55:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x0128e9…
05-07 16:54:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x6fccfb…
05-07 16:54:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	SELL	10	22¢	$2	0x438086…
05-07 16:54:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xaf257f…
05-07 16:25:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x1acfc5…
05-07 16:24:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x5927ac…
05-07 15:27:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xbb9d83…
05-07 15:26:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	SELL	9	81¢	$8	0xbceda2…
05-07 15:26:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	SELL	7	14¢	$1	0x49cb18…
05-07 15:25:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x823b57…
05-07 15:25:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0xb88841…
05-07 15:24:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x464a46…
05-07 15:22:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	9	12¢	$1	0x12d6b2…
05-07 15:22:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	SELL	10	83¢	$8	0x7f3550…
05-07 15:21:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x8f2423…
05-07 15:20:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	13	43¢	$6	0xf5c4a3…
05-07 15:19:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x359899…
05-07 15:18:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xf1ce5f…
05-07 15:18:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	13	37¢	$5	0xf3f65c…
05-07 13:31:46	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	84	9¢	$8	0x4cf707…
05-07 13:31:25	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	SELL	60	13¢	$8	0x6f7d36…
05-04 01:22:38	Will Trump say "Nuke" in May?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xb04277…
05-04 01:21:06	Will Trump say "Scam" or "Fraud" this week?	No	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0xb602ae…
05-04 00:53:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x84a330…
05-04 00:51:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xe5e03a…
05-04 00:49:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xb7fb03…
05-04 00:49:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x734aaa…
05-04 00:48:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	SELL	2	1¢	$0	0x4f4667…
05-04 00:44:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xaf0776…
05-04 00:43:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xce3c52…
05-04 00:41:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x3f8f67…
05-04 00:41:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xc5937e…
05-04 00:40:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xf148c3…
05-04 00:40:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xeadf43…
05-04 00:40:10	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	No	SELL	144	4¢	$6	0xb5e000…
05-04 00:38:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	SELL	14	1¢	$0	0x2677d1…
05-04 00:37:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xe5a5f3…
05-04 00:37:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x9534d6…
05-04 00:36:02	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	429	14¢	$60	0xbd96fa…
05-04 00:34:32	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	No	BUY	656	5¢	$30	0x823fc6…
05-04 00:34:06	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	SELL	298	13¢	$39	0x0a002f…
05-04 00:33:50	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	SELL	429	13¢	$56	0x2479d7…
05-03 23:57:04	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	298	15¢	$45	0x34faba…
05-03 23:56:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x7a0929…
05-03 23:53:38	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	429	14¢	$60	0xb451b9…
04-20 20:39:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 20:35 UTC	Down	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0xe554e9…
04-20 20:38:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 20:35 UTC	Up	SELL	10	38¢	$4	0x0c4baf…
04-20 20:35:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 20:35 UTC	Up	BUY	11	48¢	$5	0x17d8a0…
04-20 20:31:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 20:30 UTC	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x87e95e…
04-20 20:30:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 20:30 UTC	Up	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x63d130…
04-19 16:50:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-19 16:50 UTC	Up	BUY	33	32¢	$11	0xa77f37…
04-19 16:50:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-19 16:45 UTC	Up	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x964a7b…
04-19 16:49:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-19 16:45 UTC	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xfd106a…
04-19 16:49:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-19 16:45 UTC	Down	SELL	15	2¢	$0	0x2b4cb9…
04-19 16:48:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-19 16:45 UTC	Up	BUY	7	81¢	$5	0x99a3c7…
04-19 16:48:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-19 16:45 UTC	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xee9482…
04-19 16:47:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-19 16:45 UTC	Up	SELL	7	65¢	$5	0xf29308…
04-19 16:47:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-19 16:45 UTC	Down	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0xe1d229…
04-19 16:47:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-19 16:45 UTC	Up	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0xac1665…
04-19 16:46:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-19 16:45 UTC	Down	SELL	21	33¢	$7	0x38af8c…