Criminal-Uncertainty — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

+$39

Hit rate

91.7%

Resolved

Trades

8,991

lifetime

Volume

$44.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$113

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-19

last 06-30 04:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

68% 100% +$16

Politics

19% 67% $-13

Crypto

8% — —

Sports

5% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

68 active days in 12wk • peak 1014 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	+66	$53	100¢	$66	+$13	06-27 16:10
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	+38	$11	100¢	$38	+$27	06-14 19:42
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	No	+5	$4	100¢	$5	+$1	05-31 22:57
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	+5	$5	82¢	$4	$-0	06-30 16:08
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	+2	$2	0¢	$0	$-2	06-18 22:25

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	95	$851	484	484	+0	open	—	01-31 17:33
us x iran ceasefire by march 2	14	$331	177	177	+0	open	—	03-01 20:46
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	9	$311	233	233	-0	open	—	03-10 00:33
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	14	$301	222	109	+113	open	—	06-27 16:10
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	20	$296	1,074	956	+119	open	—	03-25 19:01
will israel strike lebanon on march 1 2026	21	$289	181	226	-45	open	—	03-01 23:27
hezbollah strike on israel by march 7	25	$285	442	462	-20	open	—	03-01 23:26
hezbollah strike on israel by march 31 737 523	16	$271	207	139	+68	open	—	03-01 23:46
fifwc bel irn 2026 06 21 total 0pt5	6	$234	219	164	+56	open	—	06-21 20:35
will iran strike dimona by march 31	4	$230	102	148	-46	open	—	03-26 14:19
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	99	$216	290	290	+0	open	—	02-28 06:34
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	20	$202	168	130	+38	open	—	06-14 19:42
fifwc mar hai 2026 06 24 total 4pt5	6	$197	107	107	+0	open	—	06-24 23:40
fifwc irn nzl 2026 06 15 total 2pt5	6	$181	97	156	-59	open	—	06-16 02:10
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	14	$179	182	180	+2	open	—	04-07 22:32
will iran strike cyprus in march	26	$175	212	225	-13	open	—	03-21 13:53
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	23	$167	272	199	+74	open	—	04-07 21:20
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	27	$166	165	181	-16	open	—	01-30 02:12
highest temperature in tokyo on april 20 2026 22c	7	$161	86	76	+10	open	—	04-20 12:59
highest temperature in wellington on april 13 2026 20c	19	$160	88	74	+14	open	—	04-13 07:11
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 64°F or higher on April 26?	16	$156	74	84	-10	open	—	04-27 10:46
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	11	$146	80	142	-62	open	—	04-27 10:46
highest temperature in milan on april 23 2026 20c	19	$141	72	79	-7	open	—	04-22 20:02
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 29?	15	$140	70	80	-10	open	—	04-28 07:33
us strikes iran by february 2 2026	38	$139	80	80	+0	open	—	01-31 18:33
highest temperature in wellington on april 2 2026 20c	7	$138	70	70	+0	open	—	04-02 06:56
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	5	$138	61	105	-44	open	—	03-05 05:32
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	13	$137	161	161	+0	open	—	02-28 18:11
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	10	$136	115	65	+50	open	—	03-09 09:27
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 28?	15	$132	65	70	-5	open	—	04-28 07:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 17:59:58	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xdae98d…
06-30 17:59:56	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x0a0d24…
06-30 17:55:58	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	Yes	BUY	6	99¢	$5	0x5301b8…
06-30 16:08:47	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xde5821…
06-30 04:09:11	hype updown 15m 1782792000	Down	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x4dc8fc…
06-30 04:08:44	hype updown 15m 1782792000	Down	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x3f318d…
06-30 04:08:43	hype updown 15m 1782792000	Down	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0x382052…
06-30 04:06:32	hype updown 15m 1782792000	Up	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x3863a9…
06-30 04:04:58	doge updown 5m 1782792000	Down	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0x4647fd…
06-30 04:04:56	doge updown 5m 1782792000	Down	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0xb0c1bf…
06-30 04:04:56	doge updown 5m 1782792000	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x8134f8…
06-30 04:04:31	doge updown 5m 1782792000	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x7cbffa…
06-30 04:03:35	doge updown 15m 1782792000	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x5c37ea…
06-30 04:01:52	hype updown 5m 1782792000	Up	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x2a2631…
06-30 04:01:50	hype updown 15m 1782792000	Up	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xd1941c…
06-30 03:58:31	hype updown 5m 1782791700	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x3c3fc3…
06-30 03:54:32	doge updown 5m 1782791400	Down	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x532df6…
06-30 03:54:04	doge updown 5m 1782791400	Up	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xd7fece…
06-30 03:53:29	doge updown 5m 1782791400	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x293f05…
06-30 03:53:19	doge updown 5m 1782791400	Up	BUY	2	69¢	$1	0xc72b62…
06-30 03:53:16	doge updown 5m 1782791400	Up	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x001a3a…
06-30 03:52:56	doge updown 5m 1782791400	Down	BUY	2	31¢	$1	0x49b4fa…
06-30 03:52:55	doge updown 5m 1782791400	Down	BUY	2	31¢	$1	0x6c042f…
06-30 03:52:53	doge updown 5m 1782791400	Down	BUY	1	31¢	$0	0x073d02…
06-30 03:50:31	hype updown 15m 1782791100	Down	BUY	2	68¢	$1	0xae7cfd…
06-30 03:50:13	hype updown 15m 1782791100	Down	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x77ca2c…
06-30 03:47:14	doge updown 15m 1782791100	Down	BUY	4	68¢	$3	0xb1b374…
06-30 03:41:31	doge updown 5m 1782790800	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xec888d…
06-30 03:41:29	hype updown 15m 1782790200	Up	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x9c2fdb…
06-30 03:41:29	hype updown 15m 1782790200	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x4ad262…
06-30 03:41:04	hype updown 15m 1782790200	Up	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x8916e7…
06-30 03:37:49	hype updown 15m 1782790200	Down	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xa4cd69…
06-30 03:37:46	hype updown 15m 1782790200	Down	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0xc47294…
06-30 03:37:14	hype updown 15m 1782790200	Down	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0xd1f636…
06-30 03:29:28	doge updown 5m 1782789900	Up	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x8c9902…
06-30 03:29:22	doge updown 5m 1782789900	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x0d0509…
06-30 03:29:04	doge updown 5m 1782789900	Down	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0xf51dab…
06-30 03:28:59	doge updown 5m 1782789900	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x37a858…
06-30 03:28:49	doge updown 5m 1782789900	Down	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x8c6048…
06-30 03:25:10	doge updown 15m 1782789300	Down	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x8f9b51…
06-30 03:25:02	doge updown 15m 1782789300	Down	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x521ded…
06-30 03:24:04	hype updown 15m 1782789300	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x854478…
06-30 03:22:35	doge updown 5m 1782789600	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x72ebc4…
06-30 03:22:35	doge updown 5m 1782789600	Down	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x12fb9f…
06-30 03:22:13	doge updown 5m 1782789600	Up	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xee5cfc…
06-30 03:17:53	doge updown 5m 1782789300	Up	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0xd238bc…
06-30 03:17:05	doge updown 15m 1782789300	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x802f7b…
06-30 03:17:04	doge updown 15m 1782789300	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xe08ecc…
06-30 03:17:04	doge updown 15m 1782789300	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x95531e…
06-30 03:16:31	hype updown 5m 1782789300	Up	BUY	0	85¢	$0	0x487ad1…
06-30 03:15:59	doge updown 5m 1782789300	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x750958…
06-30 03:12:50	doge updown 5m 1782789000	Up	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0xcc30ef…
06-30 03:10:02	doge updown 5m 1782788700	Down	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0xf259cc…
06-30 03:09:58	doge updown 5m 1782788700	Down	BUY	2	69¢	$1	0x52c7a9…
06-30 03:09:58	doge updown 5m 1782788700	Down	BUY	2	68¢	$1	0x29ef62…
06-30 03:09:41	hype updown 5m 1782788700	Down	BUY	2	20¢	$0	0x4a0335…
06-30 03:09:41	hype updown 5m 1782788700	Down	BUY	3	20¢	$1	0x35b8aa…
06-30 03:09:40	hype updown 5m 1782788700	Down	BUY	1	21¢	$0	0xd1c65a…
06-30 03:08:10	doge updown 5m 1782788700	Down	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0xc92e8d…
06-30 03:08:10	doge updown 5m 1782788700	Down	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x5d2c18…
06-30 03:08:04	hype updown 15m 1782788400	Up	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x135428…
06-30 03:06:52	doge updown 5m 1782788700	Up	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x8a3b08…
06-30 03:05:32	doge updown 15m 1782788400	Up	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0xc2b947…
06-30 03:05:32	doge updown 5m 1782788700	Up	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x7059d2…
06-30 03:04:58	hype updown 15m 1782788400	Up	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xe88756…
06-30 03:04:52	hype updown 15m 1782788400	Up	BUY	0	79¢	$0	0x8cc94f…
06-30 03:04:50	hype updown 15m 1782788400	Up	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xe77b80…
06-30 03:02:55	doge updown 15m 1782788400	Up	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x65777e…
06-30 02:59:53	hype updown 15m 1782787500	Down	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x3a0491…
06-30 02:59:38	hype updown 15m 1782787500	Down	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x6f2dc7…
06-30 02:59:26	hype updown 15m 1782787500	Down	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0xd58958…
06-30 02:59:20	hype updown 15m 1782787500	Down	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x72deed…
06-30 02:57:23	hype updown 15m 1782787500	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xb43fda…
06-30 02:55:59	doge updown 5m 1782788100	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x716ae5…
06-30 02:54:52	doge updown 5m 1782787800	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x2a0702…
06-30 02:54:49	doge updown 5m 1782787800	Down	BUY	1	21¢	$0	0x530d77…
06-30 02:54:47	doge updown 5m 1782787800	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x851b9a…
06-30 02:54:20	doge updown 5m 1782787800	Up	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0xaae5d4…
06-30 02:54:14	doge updown 5m 1782787800	Up	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x6cfe46…
06-30 02:54:13	doge updown 5m 1782787800	Up	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x369f13…
06-30 02:50:44	doge updown 5m 1782787800	Up	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xb30d2d…
06-30 02:50:13	doge updown 5m 1782787800	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x180d96…
06-30 02:49:26	hype updown 15m 1782787500	Up	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x9c23ac…
06-30 02:49:13	hype updown 15m 1782787500	Up	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x30e7e9…
06-30 02:46:40	doge updown 5m 1782787500	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x1f5997…
06-30 02:46:19	hype updown 5m 1782787500	Up	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xd77a39…
06-30 02:40:34	hype updown 15m 1782786600	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x68fd92…
06-30 02:39:13	hype updown 15m 1782786600	Down	BUY	0	79¢	$0	0xa55a92…
06-30 02:38:22	hype updown 15m 1782786600	Down	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xcd9134…
06-30 02:38:11	hype updown 5m 1782786900	Down	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x6d3054…
06-30 02:37:50	hype updown 5m 1782786900	Down	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xfea93a…
06-30 02:37:41	hype updown 5m 1782786900	Down	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xe1b9f4…
06-30 02:37:23	hype updown 5m 1782786900	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xef23ba…
06-30 02:36:55	hype updown 5m 1782786900	Down	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x40bf85…
06-30 02:36:47	doge updown 5m 1782786900	Up	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x2608af…
06-30 02:36:14	doge updown 5m 1782786900	Up	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x347942…
06-30 02:35:46	hype updown 5m 1782786900	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xee911a…
06-30 02:35:40	doge updown 15m 1782786600	Down	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xd0db92…
06-30 02:35:38	doge updown 15m 1782786600	Down	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x45c7f1…
06-30 02:35:07	hype updown 5m 1782786900	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xfc0c63…