Quick-Witted-Perception — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$514

Unrealized P&L

-$248

Hit rate

57.3%

Resolved

230

Trades

909

lifetime

Volume

$26.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$30

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-08

last 11-04 10:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 89 days

Categories

Politics

70% 26% -$230

Other

18% 24% -$266

Crypto

11% 28% +$161

Tech

1% 0% -$162

Sports

0% 0% -$18

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?	No		+462	$13	0¢	$1	-$12	11-04 10:32
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	No		+812	$237	0¢	$1	-$236	11-03 05:42

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
iran closes its airspace by june 8	15	$2.3K	3,051	3,051	+0	Yes	+$116	06-07 20:56
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	7	$1.3K	1,200	1,200	+0	Yes	+$408	06-17 17:16
will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	18	$1.1K	1,518	1,518	+0	Yes	+$232	06-18 20:01
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	23	$975	2,374	1,330	+1,044	No	+$151	05-25 06:00
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	7	$910	1,966	1,966	+0	open	—	10-30 16:05
will trump restart project freedom by june 30	4	$833	900	500	+400	Yes	-$13	06-10 20:27
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?	5	$789	700	700	+0	No	+$112	06-14 19:20
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	5	$776	727	727	+0	No	-$96	05-29 18:51
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?	12	$725	1,038	1,038	+0	Yes	+$70	05-24 14:49
will trump say mutilation during faith freedom coalition conference 20260626142533762	4	$644	1,386	500	+886	No	-$376	06-26 21:35
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	2	$571	476	476	+0	Yes	+$371	06-26 20:58
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14	6	$558	504	504	+0	Yes	+$268	06-14 21:20
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	18	$525	1,500	1,000	+500	No	-$278	06-17 17:22
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	9	$513	4,695	4,694	+0	No	+$263	06-03 16:11
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	6	$512	3,051	2,239	+812	open	—	11-03 05:42
us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	2	$488	300	300	+0	Yes	+$98	06-15 15:40
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 15 2026 671	5	$485	2,429	2,429	+0	No	+$325	06-16 09:11
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	12	$447	1,115	1,115	+0	No	+$347	05-16 13:32
bitcoin above 62k on june 7 2026	5	$446	1,045	1,045	+0	Yes	+$77	06-07 12:10
Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	4	$439	900	900	+0	Yes	-$15	10-31 17:36
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	13	$432	794	794	+0	No	+$54	05-07 18:58
will any flight depart from imam khomeini international airport by june 8 20260607232624532	4	$419	370	370	+0	Yes	+$100	06-08 22:41
bitcoin above 58k on june 6 2026	6	$394	1,009	1,009	+0	Yes	+$193	06-05 18:55
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	11	$378	3,327	3,327	+0	Yes	-$74	10-22 13:44
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	4	$345	1,186	1,186	+0	open	—	09-18 19:41
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	3	$272	200	200	+0	No	-$8	05-23 08:43
Another crypto hack over $100m by October 31?	3	$270	227	227	+0	Yes	+$134	10-29 21:18
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	2	$244	312	312	+0	Yes	+$44	06-13 14:56
will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	5	$240	1,600	0	+1,600	Yes	-$240	06-17 22:09
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	16	$195	5,483	2,076	+3,407	No	-$27	04-14 12:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 10:32:36	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?	No	BUY	462	3¢	$13	0xdcb0c1…
11-03 05:42:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	No	BUY	802	22¢	$172	0xf407be…
11-03 05:41:55	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	No	BUY	8	22¢	$2	0x51e91b…
11-03 05:37:04	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	No	BUY	2	20¢	$0	0xdb6bae…
11-02 21:34:12	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	No	SELL	830	5¢	$43	0x540bed…
11-02 21:27:37	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	No	SELL	1,409	7¢	$94	0xf637c5…
11-02 21:06:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	No	BUY	2,239	9¢	$200	0xcbc79e…
11-02 20:12:21	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on November 2?	Yes	BUY	1,500	7¢	$100	0x9e8a20…
11-02 18:37:45	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	Yes	SELL	1,000	4¢	$35	0xcd24e1…
11-02 17:32:03	Will Trump say "Burger" in October?	Yes	SELL	300	0¢	$1	0x629ef9…
11-02 06:20:30	Will Trump say "Burger" in October?	Yes	BUY	280	16¢	$45	0x88cb0a…
11-02 06:11:09	Will Trump say "Burger" in October?	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0xf71ede…
11-01 20:04:34	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	Yes	BUY	824	4¢	$33	0x1723e0…
11-01 19:44:21	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	Yes	BUY	96	4¢	$4	0xac8342…
11-01 19:44:21	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	Yes	BUY	80	4¢	$3	0x9917f0…
11-01 19:43:13	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	481	4¢	$20	0x8f8f9e…
10-31 17:36:16	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	500	10¢	$52	0xdbee4f…
10-31 17:24:52	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	500	20¢	$99	0x0387a4…
10-31 16:26:09	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	400	40¢	$161	0x441a10…
10-31 16:18:30	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	400	32¢	$128	0x5f213c…
10-31 08:26:19	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on October 31?	Yes	BUY	831	4¢	$33	0xe273e6…
10-30 16:05:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	472	6¢	$28	0x6c38ea…
10-30 15:45:15	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	472	7¢	$34	0x5e4c41…
10-30 10:14:24	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	481	5¢	$25	0xcea0da…
10-30 05:06:21	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	400	10¢	$39	0x72aa7e…
10-29 23:09:33	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	374	30¢	$113	0xef85b6…
10-29 23:09:31	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	26	30¢	$8	0xf7ff4f…
10-29 22:53:00	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	1,094	47¢	$514	0xd09005…
10-29 21:40:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	1,094	16¢	$174	0x7e4c74…
10-29 21:18:54	Another crypto hack over $100m by October 31?	Yes	SELL	227	89¢	$202	0x2206bb…
10-29 19:09:42	Another crypto hack over $100m by October 31?	Yes	BUY	61	30¢	$18	0x3a078b…
10-29 19:08:36	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?	Yes	SELL	807	2¢	$19	0x61bbbe…
10-29 19:08:09	Another crypto hack over $100m by October 31?	Yes	BUY	166	30¢	$50	0x32a6dc…
10-29 15:23:41	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	6,219	0¢	$6	0xf44903…
10-29 06:17:50	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?	Yes	BUY	807	3¢	$25	0x89bdb6…
10-28 21:12:49	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	2,633	0¢	$10	0x3d3757…
10-28 20:14:37	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	3,587	1¢	$25	0x69877d…
10-23 15:33:26	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 23?	Yes	BUY	120	4¢	$4	0x8a8db6…
10-22 16:53:27	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 22?	Yes	SELL	892	0¢	$3	0x700950…
10-22 16:45:09	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 22?	Yes	BUY	150	3¢	$4	0x655d67…
10-22 16:45:05	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 22?	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$2	0xfcf0c8…
10-22 16:34:05	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 22?	Yes	BUY	60	11¢	$7	0x7eefb5…
10-22 16:34:05	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 22?	Yes	BUY	440	11¢	$47	0x6a1841…
10-22 16:22:33	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 22?	Yes	BUY	192	23¢	$44	0xd07520…
10-22 13:44:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	SELL	1,100	5¢	$50	0xceb39e…
10-22 12:02:15	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	1,100	7¢	$82	0xe5af48…
10-22 11:27:35	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	SELL	901	4¢	$40	0xe4c1ac…
10-22 07:03:12	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 22?	No	BUY	500	0¢	$2	0x28daaa…
10-21 19:42:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	701	7¢	$50	0x2d5485…
10-21 19:27:30	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	199	11¢	$21	0xc99537…
10-21 19:27:03	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	SELL	160	12¢	$19	0x9d3257…
10-21 14:55:54	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 21?	No	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xa05d43…
10-21 14:52:38	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	SELL	403	3¢	$13	0x3078fc…
10-21 14:48:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 21?	No	BUY	276	16¢	$43	0xeeaf1a…
10-21 14:22:38	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on October 21?	No	BUY	300	5¢	$15	0x18bdec…
10-21 13:54:54	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on October 21?	No	SELL	300	16¢	$48	0x60cfd0…
10-21 13:47:27	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on October 21?	No	BUY	275	23¢	$63	0x309050…
10-21 13:47:26	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on October 21?	No	BUY	25	23¢	$6	0x4cdd08…
10-20 20:42:27	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-20?	Yes	SELL	366	24¢	$88	0x2c3c73…
10-20 20:37:41	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-20?	Yes	BUY	329	9¢	$30	0xbbd2a2…
10-20 20:34:53	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-20?	Yes	SELL	77	11¢	$8	0xb5eb3f…
10-20 19:45:26	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-20?	Yes	BUY	114	22¢	$25	0xbd77df…
10-20 18:16:18	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	403	6¢	$25	0x40ab9c…
10-20 17:28:29	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	BUY	160	16¢	$25	0x520502…
10-20 15:43:14	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 20?	No	BUY	99	2¢	$2	0x21fec1…
10-20 15:17:47	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 20?	No	BUY	255	10¢	$26	0x4398d0…
10-20 15:17:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	SELL	423	6¢	$27	0xfa4ac5…
10-19 17:18:17	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 20?	No	BUY	2,114	1¢	$28	0x9c5bab…
10-19 17:17:26	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	SELL	334	10¢	$32	0x478bb1…
10-19 14:24:11	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	423	5¢	$23	0xd22666…
10-19 14:01:42	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	SELL	500	4¢	$22	0xca770d…
10-19 13:57:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	28	71¢	$20	0x7c14ea…
10-19 12:44:32	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	BUY	167	15¢	$25	0xc030ac…
10-19 12:38:20	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	BUY	168	15¢	$25	0xdbc017…
10-19 11:39:59	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 19?	No	SELL	222	34¢	$76	0x19d2ba…
10-19 09:27:23	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 19?	No	BUY	103	10¢	$10	0x813fdd…
10-19 09:24:44	Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	99	11¢	$11	0x7c0c56…
10-19 09:12:20	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 19?	No	BUY	119	15¢	$18	0x39aae5…
10-18 12:48:59	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	500	5¢	$25	0xff0723…
10-16 19:46:58	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17?	No	BUY	93	5¢	$5	0xb0ad21…
10-16 17:49:08	Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31?	No	BUY	1,000	2¢	$20	0x43adf5…
10-16 16:13:03	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	279	3¢	$8	0xc380b6…
10-16 08:29:30	Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	99	13¢	$13	0x673677…
10-16 08:28:46	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	141	7¢	$10	0x09925f…
09-19 09:31:55	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on September 19?	No	BUY	180	4¢	$7	0x12ae39…
09-19 08:02:55	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on September 19?	No	BUY	281	13¢	$36	0xcf5f6c…
09-19 08:01:16	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	SELL	771	5¢	$39	0x01dc37…
09-18 19:44:37	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	771	7¢	$54	0xc4c28b…
09-18 19:41:12	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	714	8¢	$56	0xbc3615…
09-18 13:53:45	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on September 18?	Yes	BUY	56	21¢	$12	0x4a9ed3…
09-18 13:50:56	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on September 18?	Yes	BUY	80	10¢	$8	0xfdb328…
09-18 13:50:30	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	778	2¢	$12	0x39b78b…
09-15 14:34:54	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	714	14¢	$100	0xdf1d38…
09-15 13:40:46	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	472	15¢	$71	0xc88584…
09-15 08:08:28	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	208	12¢	$25	0xa27fff…
09-14 08:58:54	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	778	3¢	$25	0xe7a793…
09-13 19:13:31	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	472	25¢	$118	0x7995eb…
08-25 15:49:45	bitcoin above 80k on august 25 2026	Yes	BUY	333	1¢	$2	0xa85a55…
08-25 06:21:33	bitcoin above 82k on august 25 2026	Yes	BUY	280	22¢	$63	0x8b347d…
08-24 09:32:45	Will the price of Solana be above $90 on August 24?	No	BUY	43	10¢	$4	0x0cba58…