Dirty-Bibliography — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$464

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

32.4%

Resolved

Trades

366

lifetime

Volume

$4.40K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-03

last 10-19 20:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 15 days

Categories

Other

76% 47% -$515

Politics

24% 100% +$51

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

29 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (18) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	35	$1.1K	7,577	7,577	+0	No	-$468	08-27 11:58
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	10	$617	1,200	1,200	+0	open	—	09-28 12:44
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	37	$400	8,294	1,391	+6,903	Yes	-$134	09-21 13:57
Iran Nuke before 2027?	34	$376	2,500	2,500	+0	open	—	06-23 13:18
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	11	$284	1,170	1,170	+0	open	—	08-20 14:44
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	4	$242	140	140	+0	Yes	+$32	05-24 07:25
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	4	$225	300	300	+0	open	—	10-19 20:48
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	38	$162	7,761	7,761	+0	No	+$68	09-01 07:54
Iran nuclear test before 2027?	13	$160	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	06-14 19:45
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	4	$158	450	450	+0	open	—	10-17 09:23
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	3	$135	212	212	+0	Yes	+$9	05-27 09:20
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	2	$117	500	500	+0	No	+$87	06-18 15:57
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	3	$103	453	453	+0	open	—	09-28 19:26
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	9	$79	3,442	3,442	+0	No	-$10	09-14 08:54
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?	5	$61	710	0	+710	Yes	-$61	09-25 18:10
iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	2	$60	500	500	+0	No	+$10	06-27 06:38
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	58	$40	5,000	5,000	+0	No	-$10	07-07 09:09
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	17	$28	1,400	1,400	+0	No	+$1	06-30 07:00
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	2	$24	300	300	+0	No	+$6	06-16 20:53
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	26	$18	883	882	+0	No	$0	09-15 06:39
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?	17	$15	196	196	+0	open	—	09-10 10:12
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting?	5	$14	330	327	+3	No	+$3	07-15 05:55
Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after November 2026 meeting?	10	$12	203	203	+0	No	+$8	09-24 14:18
will wti reach 80 in june 2026 from june 16	2	$4	100	0	+100	No	-$4	06-27 11:15
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	12	$4	609	609	+0	No	+$1	08-29 18:44
will usd reach 1pt8m iranian rials by june 30	3	$3	60	0	+60	No	-$3	06-28 14:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-19 20:48:05	US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	No	SELL	105	40¢	$42	0xe0ba81…
10-19 19:40:03	US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	No	SELL	195	40¢	$78	0xb95aa9…
10-17 09:23:26	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	SELL	112	16¢	$18	0xecf8f6…
10-14 14:53:54	us announces end of iranian blockade by march 31 2027	No	BUY	257	35¢	$90	0xbb7124…
10-14 13:51:48	us announces end of iranian blockade by march 31 2027	No	BUY	43	35¢	$15	0x2ca916…
10-12 09:29:14	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	SELL	338	16¢	$54	0xd38d7a…
10-02 17:11:18	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	18¢	$36	0xf10d78…
09-28 19:26:02	Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	Yes	SELL	453	11¢	$52	0xbfbf47…
09-28 12:44:11	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	40¢	$395	0x0cd219…
09-25 18:10:05	US x China tariff agreement by December 31?	No	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0xb64e09…
09-24 14:18:46	Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	49	5¢	$2	0xc9fd98…
09-24 13:28:21	Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	58	5¢	$3	0x7ca415…
09-24 13:27:39	Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	77	5¢	$4	0xb4f4b1…
09-24 13:27:38	Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	19	5¢	$1	0x7f3777…
09-21 13:57:03	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0x0d50fd…
09-21 07:01:23	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x4f1382…
09-15 06:39:10	Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x585fe6…
09-14 22:53:31	Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	882	1¢	$9	0x2cdbec…
09-14 08:54:30	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	3,442	1¢	$34	0xbe9dcd…
09-14 08:08:51	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	41¢	$41	0x27ff79…
09-14 01:52:43	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	SELL	42	6¢	$3	0xdd56ca…
09-14 01:00:25	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	SELL	25	6¢	$2	0xfb2c96…
09-14 00:35:13	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0x2ecee0…
09-14 00:31:55	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0x33e8c5…
09-14 00:29:06	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	SELL	0	6¢	$0	0xfe2ef3…
09-13 11:50:16	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	SELL	224	6¢	$12	0x918169…
09-12 04:31:25	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0xbbca79…
09-11 20:28:42	Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	Yes	BUY	300	12¢	$36	0x9f2731…
09-10 10:12:33	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	196	3¢	$6	0x7cb382…
09-10 07:21:06	US x China tariff agreement by December 31?	No	BUY	300	10¢	$30	0xe2d98b…
09-09 08:33:16	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	BUY	105	2¢	$2	0xf3c706…
09-01 07:54:18	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,423	1¢	$11	0x47d582…
09-01 07:24:58	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	125	1¢	$1	0x999e57…
09-01 07:16:16	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x974a4f…
09-01 06:14:40	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	13	1¢	$0	0xeb701f…
08-31 05:40:25	US x China tariff agreement by December 31?	No	BUY	80	10¢	$8	0xd9fa9d…
08-30 07:27:07	US x China tariff agreement by December 31?	No	BUY	80	10¢	$8	0x929990…
08-30 07:21:37	US x China tariff agreement by December 31?	No	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xd0ef19…
08-29 18:44:07	Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	609	0¢	$2	0x01c3c7…
08-27 11:58:13	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	SELL	1,965	2¢	$45	0xb14cf9…
08-27 05:05:12	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	SELL	34	2¢	$1	0xdc0433…
08-26 22:34:01	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	SELL	31	2¢	$1	0x423351…
08-26 20:30:33	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x979a5b…
08-26 20:29:33	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	SELL	41	2¢	$1	0xe46a99…
08-25 22:25:21	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	SELL	430	2¢	$9	0xd47f6e…
08-25 21:18:27	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0x3e44ac…
08-25 21:05:10	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	SELL	525	2¢	$10	0xfad882…
08-25 20:01:00	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	SELL	39	2¢	$1	0x1cea3f…
08-25 18:29:06	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	300	24¢	$72	0x7af16e…
08-25 17:01:25	Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x14b67d…
08-25 16:59:57	Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xf1fe11…
08-25 16:59:57	Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	51	1¢	$1	0xbe40ee…
08-25 16:59:57	Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	52	1¢	$1	0x7938ac…
08-25 16:59:57	Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0x069f28…
08-25 09:53:27	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	SELL	1,028	2¢	$21	0x0d0017…
08-24 17:31:16	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	27¢	$8	0xaf6812…
08-24 17:31:16	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	70	28¢	$19	0x340374…
08-24 17:30:40	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	28¢	$28	0x59ef64…
08-21 18:18:58	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117 222 252	Yes	BUY	250	20¢	$50	0xc5a056…
08-20 17:57:03	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	SELL	552	3¢	$18	0x64da8a…
08-20 14:44:39	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes	SELL	375	14¢	$53	0x261971…
08-20 01:47:07	Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	40	1¢	$0	0x4dffa2…
08-18 22:04:45	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes	SELL	375	14¢	$53	0xf1270f…
08-18 14:40:39	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes	SELL	250	14¢	$35	0x9c5f9f…
08-16 22:35:36	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	No	BUY	100	19¢	$19	0x954da8…
08-15 10:38:58	Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	Yes	BUY	153	10¢	$15	0x3637e0…
08-13 04:53:01	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	BUY	336	5¢	$17	0x1d8f9d…
08-12 19:32:54	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x1039bf…
08-12 16:01:07	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0xac2e5c…
08-12 06:53:28	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	SELL	882	4¢	$36	0xbb897f…
08-11 23:03:48	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	BUY	33	5¢	$2	0x234bae…
08-11 08:33:34	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	BUY	9	5¢	$0	0x39c1b3…
08-11 08:09:48	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	No	SELL	100	21¢	$21	0x4cccea…
08-08 04:00:16	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	562	1¢	$3	0x7e3397…
08-07 16:39:07	Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x7b6798…
08-07 12:57:10	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes	BUY	300	11¢	$33	0x26c817…
08-07 12:41:25	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	564	1¢	$6	0xbf99f6…
08-07 12:39:01	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	436	1¢	$4	0x224155…
08-07 12:06:18	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes	BUY	500	11¢	$55	0x28e380…
08-06 23:33:56	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes	BUY	89	11¢	$10	0x39733b…
08-06 19:30:50	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes	BUY	111	11¢	$12	0xc5dba2…
08-06 19:29:45	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	SELL	1,000	4¢	$45	0x780033…
08-05 20:32:41	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489	No	BUY	500	2¢	$10	0xa9392c…
08-05 20:16:00	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489	No	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x1e6e07…
08-05 18:36:44	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5,463	2¢	$93	0x16f0be…
08-04 20:23:44	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	BUY	476	3¢	$17	0x82afe4…
08-04 16:32:30	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	BUY	107	7¢	$7	0xd634e1…
08-04 14:05:29	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	BUY	200	7¢	$14	0x28a7dd…
08-04 12:56:56	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	BUY	11	7¢	$1	0x45673d…
08-04 12:46:57	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	BUY	11	7¢	$1	0xb29c57…
08-04 12:37:00	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	BUY	22	7¢	$2	0xb042ba…
08-03 12:21:41	Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xbcc3d1…
08-03 12:21:39	Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0xff78d4…
08-03 12:21:39	Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	120	1¢	$1	0xe72dcf…
08-03 12:21:39	Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xcc1285…
08-03 12:21:39	Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x395e73…
08-03 12:21:39	Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	40	1¢	$0	0x329175…
08-03 12:00:05	Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xe5c8c2…
08-03 12:00:05	Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	90	1¢	$1	0x9c1216…
08-03 11:59:48	Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x83766d…