Calculating-Vignette — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$11

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

99.2%

Resolved

Trades

1,994

lifetime

Volume

$247.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$124

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-09 20:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Other

67% 97% +$11

Crypto

31% — —

Politics

1% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

60 active days in 12wk • peak 40 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $390 on May 14?	Yes		+5	$5	100¢	$5	+$0	05-14 15:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
googl close above 305 on april 7 2026	16	$2.3K	4,545	0	+4,545	open	—	04-07 20:11
dji up or down on february 24 2026	3	$2.3K	2,290	0	+2,290	open	—	02-24 21:01
ukx up or down on february 26 2026	8	$2.2K	1,138	1,138	+0	open	—	02-26 18:28
dji up or down on january 15 2026	6	$1.7K	1,684	0	+1,684	open	—	01-15 19:53
tsla close above 370 on april 6 2026	3	$1.5K	1,511	0	+1,511	open	—	04-06 18:23
sol updown 15m 1768499100	9	$1.5K	1,505	0	+1,505	open	—	01-15 17:57
spx opens up or down on march 9 2026	3	$1.4K	717	717	+0	open	—	03-09 16:51
sol updown 15m 1768318200	3	$1.4K	1,414	0	+1,414	open	—	01-13 15:44
bitcoin up or down january 12 12pm et	5	$1.4K	702	702	+0	open	—	01-12 17:58
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	6	$1.4K	709	709	+0	open	—	04-02 16:48
tsla close above 420 on february 25 2026	4	$1.4K	1,414	0	+1,414	open	—	02-25 20:37
ukx up or down on march 9 2026	6	$1.4K	702	702	+0	open	—	03-09 19:16
nvda close above 195 on february 26 2026	5	$1.3K	1,393	0	+1,393	open	—	02-26 18:29
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	3	$1.3K	650	650	+0	open	—	04-27 16:27
spx up or down on march 3 2026	8	$1.3K	1,358	0	+1,358	open	—	03-03 19:50
will bnb dip to 800 in december	1	$1.2K	1,201	0	+1,201	open	—	01-01 03:43
ndx up or down on january 20 2026	5	$1.2K	1,180	0	+1,180	open	—	01-20 17:16
ndx up or down on january 8 2026	6	$1.1K	1,113	0	+1,113	open	—	01-08 20:04
bitcoin above 70k on march 28	6	$1.1K	1,097	0	+1,097	open	—	03-28 09:02
amzn close above 205 on february 11 2026	5	$1.1K	1,111	0	+1,111	open	—	02-11 21:00
spx opens up or down on march 19 2026	3	$1.1K	665	665	+0	open	—	03-19 13:42
nvda close above 195 on february 23 2026	7	$1.1K	1,109	0	+1,109	open	—	02-23 19:53
ethereum above 2200 on april 5	4	$1.0K	1,050	0	+1,050	open	—	04-05 10:56
spx up or down on january 5 2026	1	$1000	1,020	0	+1,020	open	—	01-05 15:47
will bitcoin reach 72k march 30 april 5	9	$974	978	0	+978	open	—	04-05 23:36
aapl close above 265 on february 12 2026	4	$962	979	197	+782	open	—	02-12 20:51
msft above 430 on january 2 2026	2	$959	960	0	+960	open	—	01-02 10:06
spx up or down on january 21 2026	9	$924	965	0	+965	open	—	01-21 18:31
bitcoin above 70k on april 5	3	$909	912	0	+912	open	—	04-05 10:01
eth updown 15m 1768496400	4	$900	909	0	+909	open	—	01-15 17:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 20:43:40	tsla close above 430 on june 10 2026	No	BUY	29	98¢	$28	0x35647a…
06-09 20:19:49	spy closes above 720 on june 10 2026	Yes	BUY	37	98¢	$37	0x571345…
06-09 16:48:43	spy closes above 755 on june 10 2026	No	BUY	110	99¢	$109	0xd84d10…
06-09 16:48:37	spy closes above 760 on june 10 2026	No	BUY	110	99¢	$109	0x2c34e5…
06-08 18:39:33	spy closes above 715 on june 9 2026	Yes	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x4fe7f7…
06-08 18:39:15	spy closes above 715 on june 9 2026	Yes	BUY	63	99¢	$63	0x46aeb7…
06-08 16:23:28	spy closes above 730 on june 8 2026	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x7bc56d…
06-08 16:07:31	nvda close above 220 on june 8 2026	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x4def75…
06-08 16:06:07	aapl close above 320 on june 8 2026	No	BUY	71	97¢	$69	0x2c7d21…
06-08 16:05:13	aapl close above 300 on june 8 2026	Yes	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x85f534…
06-08 16:04:46	meta close above 610 on june 8 2026	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x9924d2…
06-08 16:04:34	meta close above 620 on june 8 2026	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x6e816b…
06-08 16:02:58	amzn close above 260 on june 8 2026	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xe51d9f…
06-08 16:02:03	spy closes above 730 on june 8 2026	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x8648c7…
06-08 15:51:43	tsla close above 430 on june 8 2026	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x43c271…
06-05 16:37:13	will spy dip to 725 by june 1 2026	No	BUY	212	99¢	$210	0x482873…
06-05 16:36:36	will spy dip to 730 by june 1 2026	No	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0x85f843…
06-05 15:30:31	dax up or down on june 5 2026	Down	BUY	110	99¢	$109	0x7f2a5c…
06-05 15:29:43	dax up or down on june 5 2026	Down	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x8d52ff…
06-05 15:13:24	dax up or down on june 5 2026	Down	BUY	45	96¢	$43	0x873f4d…
06-04 15:36:07	spy closes above 730 on june 5 2026	Yes	BUY	84	99¢	$83	0x0e26cc…
06-04 15:35:45	spy closes above 725 on june 5 2026	Yes	BUY	52	99¢	$51	0x9720d6…
06-04 15:34:48	spy closes above 740 on june 4 2026	Yes	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x117883…
06-03 20:59:18	nvda close above 235 on june 4 2026	No	BUY	110	99¢	$109	0xed85a2…
06-03 20:58:24	aapl close above 325 on june 4 2026	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xb10c2c…
06-03 20:57:52	meta close above 590 on june 4 2026	Yes	BUY	41	99¢	$40	0x68ed46…
06-03 20:57:42	meta close above 580 on june 4 2026	Yes	BUY	121	99¢	$120	0xe7f1f9…
06-03 20:56:37	amzn close above 265 on june 4 2026	No	BUY	30	99¢	$29	0x7f8cd3…
06-03 20:55:07	msft close above 460 on june 4 2026	No	BUY	110	99¢	$109	0xce16c7…
06-03 20:54:15	spy closes above 745 on june 4 2026	Yes	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0x00b3e4…
06-03 20:52:54	spy closes above 770 on june 4 2026	No	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0x02aa9e…
06-03 20:52:42	spy closes above 770 on june 4 2026	No	BUY	24	98¢	$24	0x0796ea…
06-03 14:34:30	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 3?	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0xe838c6…
06-03 14:34:16	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on June 3?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x001f19…
06-02 20:04:31	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 3?	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xbb947f…
06-02 20:04:10	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 3?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x9340d7…
06-02 20:03:13	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $235 on June 3?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x4b1225…
06-02 20:02:52	Will Apple (AAPL) close above $295 on June 3?	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xd01e76…
06-02 20:01:10	amzn close above 270 on june 3 2026	No	BUY	45	99¢	$44	0xe461d0…
06-02 19:55:31	Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $480 on June 3?	No	BUY	67	100¢	$67	0x153757…
06-01 20:31:17	Will Meta (META) close above $640 on June 2?	No	BUY	80	99¢	$80	0x64e30d…
06-01 20:30:45	Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $450 on June 2?	No	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x2e6d60…
06-01 20:30:12	amzn close above 280 on june 2 2026	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x33f3dd…
06-01 20:29:58	amzn close above 280 on june 2 2026	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x64c896…
06-01 20:29:25	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 on June 2?	Yes	BUY	32	97¢	$31	0x137efc…
06-01 20:29:07	nvda close above 205 on june 2 2026	Yes	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0xa5b441…
06-01 20:28:45	msft close above 430 on june 2 2026	Yes	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x1e2536…
06-01 17:37:37	Will Google (GOOGL) close above $395 on June 1?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xe7a9eb…
06-01 16:14:18	Will Meta (META) close above $660 on June 1?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xd23d91…
06-01 16:13:55	Will Meta (META) close above $650 on June 1?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x1f5b3c…
06-01 10:48:44	Will Meta (META) close above $660 on June 1?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0xd0f8c6…
06-01 10:48:32	Will Meta (META) close above $660 on June 1?	No	BUY	43	98¢	$42	0x2c2684…
06-01 10:47:31	Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $430 on June 1?	Yes	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x761f3f…
06-01 10:47:10	msft close above 420 on june 1 2026	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xbf1b15…
05-31 21:35:31	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 1?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xf4094e…
05-31 21:33:02	Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $285 on June 1?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$9	0x4fbd9b…
05-31 21:32:20	Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $460 on June 1?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x9a1a01…
05-30 11:07:17	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $220 on June 1?	No	BUY	30	88¢	$26	0x0b99dd…
05-30 11:07:05	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $225 on June 1?	No	BUY	53	96¢	$51	0xb10973…
05-30 11:06:28	Will Meta (META) close above $660 on June 1?	No	BUY	46	97¢	$45	0xd2f8e5…
05-30 11:05:14	Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $460 on June 1?	No	BUY	47	97¢	$46	0x3f570f…
05-30 11:03:57	Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $285 on June 1?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xa72cc2…
05-30 11:03:17	Will Apple (AAPL) close above $325 on June 1?	No	BUY	38	98¢	$37	0xb32b20…
05-30 11:02:09	Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $410 on June 1?	Yes	BUY	31	99¢	$30	0xbfa4e2…
05-30 11:02:04	Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $410 on June 1?	Yes	BUY	25	98¢	$25	0x125d1e…
05-29 21:23:18	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?	No	SELL	98	98¢	$96	0x573ad7…
05-29 15:40:44	DAX (DAX) Up or Down on May 29?	Up	BUY	29	93¢	$27	0xa91c84…
05-29 15:33:04	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 Week of May 25 2026?	No	BUY	15	97¢	$15	0x194d22…
05-29 15:30:19	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of May 25 2026?	No	BUY	500	99¢	$496	0xc149ad…
05-28 16:52:54	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $670 Week of May 25 2026?	No	BUY	96	96¢	$92	0x690865…
05-28 16:50:32	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?	No	BUY	53	98¢	$52	0xb1fb92…
05-28 16:45:00	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?	No	BUY	45	98¢	$44	0x507be8…
05-28 15:53:42	FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on May 28?	Down	SELL	114	100¢	$114	0x9fdc0c…
05-28 15:04:45	FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on May 28?	Down	BUY	114	97¢	$111	0x930515…
05-28 15:04:22	Will Meta (META) close above $610 on May 28?	Yes	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xd8f520…
05-28 15:03:44	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 28?	Yes	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x4b9f89…
05-27 19:55:46	Will Meta (META) close above $610 on May 28?	Yes	BUY	300	97¢	$291	0x5add9c…
05-27 19:53:59	spy closes above 770 on may 28 2026	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xd26dcd…
05-26 20:52:55	Will Apple (AAPL) close above $320 on May 27?	No	BUY	34	99¢	$34	0x9fc53b…
05-26 20:52:16	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $225 on May 27?	No	BUY	41	99¢	$41	0x2792ee…
05-26 20:50:52	spy closes above 725 on may 27 2026	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x0180a2…
05-26 20:50:37	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on May 27?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xb23801…
05-25 18:33:23	Will Meta (META) close above $630 on May 26?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x8748ee…
05-21 18:27:48	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $276 Week of May 18 2026?	No	BUY	150	99¢	$148	0x550ed1…
05-21 18:25:03	will meta reach 630 by may 18 2026	No	BUY	92	96¢	$88	0x236024…
05-21 18:20:20	will meta reach 630 by may 18 2026	No	BUY	8	95¢	$8	0x7729b4…
05-21 18:09:52	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $390 Week of May 18 2026?	No	BUY	88	95¢	$84	0x03f3d7…
05-21 18:09:10	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 Week of May 18 2026?	No	BUY	52	95¢	$49	0x603b46…
05-21 18:08:19	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 Week of May 18 2026?	No	BUY	56	98¢	$55	0xf27a76…
05-21 18:04:23	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of May 18 2026?	No	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0x8c65a0…
05-21 18:02:01	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 Week of May 18 2026?	No	BUY	150	97¢	$145	0xf0178a…
05-20 17:03:40	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 20?	No	BUY	133	97¢	$129	0x5ab1f8…
05-20 17:01:58	ukx up or down on may 20 2026	Up	SELL	128	100¢	$128	0x3440d0…
05-20 17:00:22	Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $410 on May 20?	Yes	BUY	171	97¢	$166	0x0b8773…
05-20 15:21:31	ukx up or down on may 20 2026	Up	BUY	128	98¢	$126	0x7d51be…
05-20 15:20:48	DAX (DAX) Up or Down on May 20?	Up	BUY	139	99¢	$138	0x2254cf…
05-19 18:01:26	spy closes above 715 on may 20 2026	Yes	BUY	229	99¢	$227	0x862f11…
05-19 16:56:56	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $235 on May 19?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xb01eca…
05-19 16:52:44	Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $430 on May 19?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x942ea9…
05-19 15:26:14	DAX (DAX) Up or Down on May 19?	Up	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xf0817c…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	328	$16.2K	3,453	06-08 16:58
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	279	$3.93M	5,927	06-08 07:24
(anonymous) 0x113d…3ce8	261	$155.0K	12,588	02-16 17:54
(anonymous) 0x0976…5989	258	$528	1,184	02-16 17:55
(anonymous) 0x375e…b7b4	255	$654	914	02-16 17:55
(anonymous) 0xcbd5…d185	251	$1.52K	256	02-04 17:07
(anonymous) 0x3415…71b7	251	$1.34K	253	02-04 17:07
(anonymous) 0xe993…ab37	248	$627	1,333	02-11 21:15