Tall-Dragonfruit — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$33

Unrealized P&L

-$8

Hit rate

31.2%

Resolved

Trades

1,019

lifetime

Volume

$22.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$23

Open exposure

$62

1 position

First seen

2026-01-04

last 06-04 12:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

53% 50% $-3

Politics

43% 0% $-30

Sports

1% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 47 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No		-100	$-54	62¢	$-62	$-8	05-28 11:25

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will lus marques mendes win the 2026 portugal presidential election	8	$913	800	800	+0	open	—	01-05 22:58
over 40m committed to the ranger public sale 819 688	7	$489	520	520	+0	open	—	01-04 12:28
Over $7M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	8	$486	400	600	-200	open	—	02-04 09:42
israel strikes iran by march 31 2026	3	$421	200	400	-200	open	—	02-15 07:37
will israel strike lebanon on january 16 2026	13	$411	402	328	+73	open	—	01-17 10:05
trump invokes war powers against venezuela by january 9 737	4	$399	400	200	+200	open	—	01-05 23:53
will the next official us iran meeting be in turkey	2	$390	100	300	-200	open	—	02-06 06:44
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	4	$374	300	350	-50	open	—	06-02 14:22
Insurrection Act invoked by January 31?	3	$373	200	200	+0	open	—	01-22 16:28
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	6	$363	200	200	+0	open	—	05-27 13:51
will sinners win best picture at the 98th academy awards	6	$343	167	270	-103	open	—	03-04 10:13
will tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in q1 2026	2	$328	300	300	+0	open	—	01-04 12:28
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	3	$324	200	300	-100	open	—	03-10 07:42
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	6	$308	300	300	+0	open	—	05-25 11:49
will the dhs shutdown last 30 days or more 945 663	4	$297	200	240	-40	open	—	02-16 05:16
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?	4	$296	300	100	+200	open	—	02-15 07:36
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	3	$292	150	200	-50	open	—	05-11 02:24
will no qualifying us iran meeting occur by february 13 2026	6	$276	294	106	+188	open	—	02-06 06:37
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 7 2026	7	$271	100	200	-100	open	—	03-06 14:46
Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	4	$257	200	200	+0	open	—	02-04 08:45
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 260 279	4	$255	150	150	+0	open	—	03-16 11:00
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	31	$240	335	150	+185	open	—	04-19 12:03
will fidesz kdnp win at least 60 seats	2	$236	100	200	-100	open	—	04-11 10:09
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	2	$233	100	200	-100	open	—	02-11 12:19
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	3	$230	100	150	-50	open	—	05-24 13:49
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	3	$228	150	150	+0	open	—	04-11 08:36
Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	7	$225	240	240	+0	open	—	02-04 15:33
will israel strike gaza on march 4 2026	12	$222	250	250	+0	open	—	03-04 11:01
will how to make a killing opening weekend box office be between 3pt5m and 5m	2	$218	100	220	-120	open	—	02-26 10:05
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	4	$217	200	200	+0	open	—	02-04 13:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-04 12:24:48	will wti reach 130 in june 2026 362	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x81328c…
06-02 16:33:42	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	61	51¢	$31	0x05549a…
06-02 16:21:27	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	39	51¢	$20	0xb2ffa8…
06-02 14:22:33	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	Yes	SELL	350	57¢	$199	0x6f9c08…
06-02 13:46:38	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0xc23829…
06-02 13:45:07	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	Yes	BUY	100	57¢	$57	0x9d8678…
06-02 13:38:46	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	Yes	BUY	100	58¢	$58	0xc4ded7…
06-02 13:38:46	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	Yes	BUY	100	59¢	$59	0x771692…
05-28 11:25:27	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	30	54¢	$16	0xc9c721…
05-28 10:49:36	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	70	54¢	$38	0x0e1f8f…
05-27 18:09:48	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	No	SELL	100	93¢	$93	0x5d9957…
05-27 16:57:07	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	50	88¢	$44	0x2091d5…
05-27 14:31:03	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	No	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0x890b3b…
05-27 14:04:23	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x6575ca…
05-27 13:53:08	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	37¢	$18	0xfb0fc6…
05-27 13:52:50	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0xb2f41c…
05-27 13:51:00	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	176	90¢	$159	0xd62d38…
05-27 13:50:58	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11	90¢	$10	0x446b08…
05-27 13:50:46	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	90¢	$3	0xb85cca…
05-27 13:49:40	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	BUY	100	21¢	$21	0x6b4d91…
05-27 13:49:08	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0x0071fe…
05-27 13:44:56	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0xa4261f…
05-27 13:44:56	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0x65299e…
05-27 13:42:47	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x065b77…
05-25 12:53:28	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0x7a41d4…
05-25 12:40:43	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	50	95¢	$48	0x3e70c2…
05-25 11:49:58	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	250	49¢	$122	0xea8e4e…
05-25 11:40:16	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0x5d204d…
05-25 11:39:09	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	100	52¢	$52	0x3ba386…
05-25 11:11:41	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0xc115db…
05-25 10:42:13	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	50	53¢	$26	0xbae038…
05-25 10:40:54	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0xc70a3b…
05-25 10:15:44	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	3	6¢	$0	0xdd8a31…
05-25 10:15:28	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	47	6¢	$3	0x890f9f…
05-24 13:49:24	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	Yes	SELL	150	92¢	$138	0x47c6d8…
05-24 13:05:40	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Yes	SELL	39	95¢	$38	0xc1c468…
05-24 13:02:40	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Yes	SELL	11	95¢	$10	0x3d3d80…
05-24 12:58:58	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Yes	SELL	50	95¢	$48	0x280df7…
05-24 12:32:13	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Yes	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0x52e890…
05-24 12:29:44	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	Yes	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0xc76ec4…
05-24 12:29:23	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	Yes	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0x597c1b…
05-24 03:23:23	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	Yes	SELL	20	59¢	$12	0x5eb783…
05-22 15:08:38	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	SELL	50	57¢	$28	0x972658…
05-22 12:53:23	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	50	78¢	$39	0x566bb2…
05-22 12:27:57	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x1174a8…
05-22 12:22:02	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	40	75¢	$30	0xf2a20a…
05-22 11:59:05	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	64¢	$32	0x8a6aca…
05-22 11:58:51	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	Yes	BUY	49	65¢	$32	0xff06bb…
05-22 11:58:47	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	66¢	$33	0xd25002…
05-22 11:47:14	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	50	56¢	$28	0x3b478b…
05-18 18:21:41	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in May?	Yes	SELL	50	78¢	$39	0x448c9a…
05-18 08:20:37	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0x1fff51…
05-11 13:37:27	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 in May?	Yes	SELL	50	47¢	$24	0xfa4474…
05-11 03:45:19	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	47¢	$24	0x4adbc1…
05-11 02:34:14	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0xc325a8…
05-11 02:24:56	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	SELL	200	85¢	$170	0x437399…
05-06 06:22:26	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	100	81¢	$81	0x2a7554…
05-06 06:01:46	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x9e7f77…
05-06 05:39:34	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	50	82¢	$41	0xd88429…
04-27 08:15:30	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	No	SELL	69	34¢	$24	0x1a5176…
04-27 08:10:50	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	No	SELL	81	34¢	$27	0x1939c5…
04-27 05:03:52	The Devil Wears Prada 2 vs. Michael Opening Weekend Box Office	Michael	SELL	26	89¢	$23	0x48321a…
04-27 04:12:18	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 27?	No	SELL	37	70¢	$26	0x2c49a0…
04-27 02:42:10	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 27?	Yes	SELL	12	32¢	$4	0xf08f42…
04-27 01:52:52	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 27?	Yes	SELL	10	32¢	$3	0x673be0…
04-27 01:46:56	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 27?	Yes	SELL	3	32¢	$1	0xaab4a4…
04-27 01:43:36	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 27?	Yes	SELL	5	32¢	$2	0x8eaaf0…
04-27 01:16:14	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	No	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0xeecec8…
04-27 01:11:48	Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	50	53¢	$27	0x31eeda…
04-27 01:04:00	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 27?	No	BUY	31	68¢	$21	0xd70952…
04-27 01:02:26	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x36b110…
04-27 00:50:48	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 27?	No	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0xe83e42…
04-27 00:47:26	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0xe8a32e…
04-27 00:42:52	Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 20.5m?	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0xb8d42d…
04-27 00:42:32	Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 20.5m?	Yes	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0x052b87…
04-27 00:36:44	The Devil Wears Prada 2 vs. Michael Opening Weekend Box Office	Michael	BUY	13	88¢	$11	0x49ce47…
04-27 00:35:56	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	No	BUY	50	23¢	$12	0xedf787…
04-27 00:35:54	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	No	BUY	33	24¢	$8	0xf16698…
04-27 00:30:38	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	No	BUY	17	24¢	$4	0xb08736…
04-27 00:22:26	The Devil Wears Prada 2 vs. Michael Opening Weekend Box Office	Michael	BUY	13	88¢	$11	0x70b50f…
04-26 11:03:18	Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	No	SELL	60	47¢	$28	0xfb6eb2…
04-25 04:45:24	Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0xc482b1…
04-23 13:41:50	lowest temperature in shanghai on april 23 2026 13c	Yes	SELL	100	97¢	$97	0x5a1f36…
04-23 13:41:20	Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	Yes	SELL	100	34¢	$34	0xb09270…
04-23 13:31:28	Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	47	85¢	$40	0xfd5532…
04-23 13:28:28	Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	85¢	$10	0x99c1cc…
04-23 13:28:20	Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0xa04d83…
04-23 13:20:52	Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	No	SELL	60	17¢	$10	0xda39c8…
04-23 13:12:36	Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	No	BUY	50	66¢	$33	0x5ace5f…
04-23 12:54:54	Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	No	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x015c1e…
04-23 12:51:28	Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	Yes	BUY	22	31¢	$7	0x73c4a8…
04-23 12:51:22	Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	Yes	BUY	18	31¢	$6	0xeea2b0…
04-23 12:41:10	highest temperature in nyc on april 23 2026 72 73f	No	BUY	13	35¢	$4	0x3be571…
04-23 12:39:48	highest temperature in nyc on april 23 2026 72 73f	No	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0x19f358…
04-23 12:39:42	highest temperature in nyc on april 23 2026 72 73f	No	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0x7ae76e…
04-23 12:38:58	Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x06e181…
04-23 12:33:56	highest temperature in nyc on april 23 2026 72 73f	No	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0xe3eb6b…
04-23 12:32:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	37	43¢	$16	0xf7214e…
04-23 12:29:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	4	43¢	$2	0x1aaa01…
04-23 12:27:50	highest temperature in nyc on april 23 2026 72 73f	No	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0x7dca4b…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	214	$16.5M	33,294	06-10 03:54
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	205	$345.4K	28,818	06-01 03:47
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	196	$1.02M	22,174	06-10 02:34
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	185	$27.3K	5,086	06-08 12:04
(anonymous) 0xd6ee…37a2	164	$147.7K	15,011	03-29 13:33
(anonymous) 0xa3e2…fdf8	154	$30.5K	1,515	06-03 05:16
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	151	$61.1K	1,398	06-08 20:16
Fragrant-Dandelion 0x1408…b4f8	145	$42.1K	10,014	05-08 11:07