Nimble-Obstacle — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4.10K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

51.1%

Resolved

239

Trades

1,375

lifetime

Volume

$53.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$39

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-26

last 11-05 21:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 45 days

Categories

Politics

73% 37% -$2,939

Crypto

22% 29% -$1,019

Other

4% 12% -$70

Tech

1% 12% -$72

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 56 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will iran strike israel on march 10	72	$10.8K	19,722	19,722	+0	Yes	+$14	03-15 15:06
houthi strike on israel by march 15 2026	47	$4.0K	8,152	8,152	+0	No	-$1,818	03-15 15:03
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	14	$3.1K	1,752	1,752	+0	Yes	+$267	03-08 21:14
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	11	$2.7K	1,871	1,871	+0	Yes	-$79	03-03 10:36
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$2.0K	2,907	2,907	+0	No	-$189	03-10 15:19
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 14, 2026?	67	$1.9K	4,686	4,686	+0	Yes	-$820	04-13 20:49
will israel strike gaza on march 8 2026	35	$1.5K	1,903	0	+1,903	Yes	+$396	03-08 21:54
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 15 2026	22	$1.5K	4,754	4,754	+0	No	-$403	04-13 18:40
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	4	$1.4K	1,128	1,128	+0	Yes	+$4	03-03 07:24
will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 14 2026	8	$1.3K	1,090	1,090	+0	No	-$55	04-13 21:45
hezbollah strike on israel by march 7	13	$1.2K	638	638	+0	Yes	+$33	03-02 00:48
us strikes iraq by march 7	4	$1.2K	1,090	1,090	+0	Yes	-$80	03-03 19:35
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	7	$1.2K	1,230	1,230	+0	No	+$97	03-08 19:10
hezbollah strike on israel by march 31 737 523	4	$1.0K	519	519	+0	Yes	+$9	03-02 00:57
will israel strike lebanon on march 7 2026	4	$815	473	473	+0	Yes	+$7	03-02 15:49
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	7	$775	2,017	2,017	+0	No	+$10	03-08 19:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	10	$750	26,863	0	+26,863	Up	-$750	06-03 00:33
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	5	$736	1,941	1,941	+0	No	-$88	03-02 18:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 21:20 UTC	6	$713	558	350	+208	Up	-$78	04-13 21:27
will israel strike lebanon on march 3 2026	5	$537	300	300	+0	Yes	+$9	03-02 05:45
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	4	$526	466	466	+0	No	-$9	03-09 05:07
will iran strike nine or more countries in march	2	$519	321	321	+0	Yes	-$27	03-02 18:33
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	3	$421	456	451	+5	Yes	-$405	02-28 06:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	6	$387	12,575	0	+12,575	Up	-$387	06-03 00:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	5	$377	2,938	0	+2,938	Up	-$377	06-03 00:38
will israel or the us target natanz uranium enrichment facility	3	$354	190	190	+0	Yes	-$8	03-02 20:31
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 19:25 UTC	1	$334	464	0	+464	Up	+$129	04-13 19:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	15	$316	1,893	212	+1,681	Up	+$6	11-05 10:09
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	4	$300	480	57	+422	Yes	+$199	05-27 19:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	5	$300	3,769	0	+3,769	Down	-$300	06-03 00:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 21:08:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x800eec…
11-05 21:08:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x7c61fb…
11-05 16:54:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0x312808…
11-05 16:54:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x8736f3…
11-05 11:02:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x43abfb…
11-05 11:02:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x638a7d…
11-05 11:02:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	SELL	14	86¢	$12	0xc60d37…
11-05 11:01:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xae4956…
11-05 11:01:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x17af5f…
11-05 11:00:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	SELL	18	73¢	$13	0x13356e…
11-05 11:00:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x2736ea…
11-05 11:00:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0xa2c80a…
11-05 11:00:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x91ab64…
11-05 10:22:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x516553…
11-05 10:21:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	BUY	95	26¢	$25	0xe41b5c…
11-05 10:19:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	BUY	44	57¢	$25	0xcf9586…
11-05 10:19:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0xc448e4…
11-05 10:19:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x0b03fe…
11-05 10:18:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x5efe8e…
11-05 10:17:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x09dfcb…
11-05 10:17:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	66	38¢	$25	0x5683e7…
11-05 10:17:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	71	35¢	$25	0x0c0307…
11-05 10:17:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	SELL	148	72¢	$107	0xf41a59…
11-05 10:16:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x526d99…
11-05 10:16:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0xe092b3…
11-05 10:16:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x3db962…
11-05 10:16:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	SELL	133	100¢	$133	0x6e0a4f…
11-05 10:10:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	45	56¢	$25	0xe7c05a…
11-05 10:10:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	45	56¢	$25	0xf38fb6…
11-05 10:10:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	43	58¢	$25	0xd244c1…
11-05 10:09:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xf22706…
11-05 10:09:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x1b8c69…
11-05 10:08:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xb15476…
11-05 10:08:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0x9b62e1…
11-05 10:07:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x78343b…
11-05 10:07:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	SELL	68	92¢	$63	0x5d9047…
11-05 10:06:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	SELL	22	29¢	$6	0x30b56f…
11-05 10:06:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	34	74¢	$25	0x2b7fcc…
11-05 10:06:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	34	73¢	$25	0x327a9f…
11-05 10:06:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x0478b0…
11-05 10:06:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	SELL	32	78¢	$25	0x805fda…
11-05 10:06:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	32	78¢	$25	0x85db9e…
11-05 10:05:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	SELL	90	75¢	$67	0x2d519a…
11-05 10:04:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	48	52¢	$25	0xdc3d68…
11-05 10:04:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	42	60¢	$25	0xe5b26e…
11-05 10:03:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xd52dfc…
11-05 10:02:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x7fbef7…
11-05 10:01:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	102	24¢	$25	0x327513…
11-05 09:59:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x635ebe…
11-05 09:58:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	SELL	87	96¢	$83	0x5ab4df…
11-05 09:58:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	48	52¢	$25	0xaab66f…
11-05 09:57:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	SELL	16	51¢	$8	0xc09c00…
11-05 09:57:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	38	65¢	$25	0xf05b76…
11-05 09:56:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0xe66e22…
11-05 09:55:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	SELL	52	57¢	$29	0xc3db32…
11-05 09:54:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	52	48¢	$25	0x8791f3…
11-04 17:05:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	78	32¢	$25	0x038ccf…
11-04 17:04:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x307d0c…
11-02 23:37:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x9cde74…
11-02 23:22:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x3b1123…
11-02 23:22:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0xf77c58…
11-02 23:21:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	SELL	70	75¢	$53	0x180cfd…
11-02 23:20:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0xec9269…
11-02 23:20:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x86dd9c…
11-02 23:20:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x7388fd…
11-02 23:20:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x2d50d4…
11-02 23:18:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	333	3¢	$10	0x5298fa…
11-02 23:16:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0xe36164…
11-02 23:15:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0x6aabdf…
11-02 23:14:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x70164f…
11-02 23:14:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x2f4b8c…
11-02 23:10:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	SELL	14	99¢	$13	0x8f3117…
11-02 23:09:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Down	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0xb02ff6…
11-02 23:09:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Down	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0x06b7f3…
11-02 23:09:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Down	BUY	143	7¢	$10	0x1d311e…
11-02 23:08:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Down	SELL	85	87¢	$74	0x2f7611…
11-02 23:08:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Down	BUY	39	13¢	$5	0xb0cfdd…
11-02 23:08:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Down	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x9aa713…
11-02 23:07:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0x6ac7f3…
11-02 23:06:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Down	SELL	20	58¢	$12	0xeb31f6…
11-02 23:03:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x856791…
11-02 22:58:27	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	No	BUY	736	1¢	$10	0xa2252e…
11-02 22:58:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x90059d…
11-02 22:57:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x8c09fb…
11-02 22:56:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	SELL	24	52¢	$13	0x635cad…
11-02 22:55:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x663065…
11-02 22:54:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x9718c6…
11-02 22:53:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xded246…
11-02 22:53:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	SELL	16	82¢	$13	0x4bd5cc…
11-02 22:52:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x82191f…
11-02 22:52:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0x7baa51…
11-02 22:51:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xe8baab…
11-02 22:51:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	SELL	21	71¢	$15	0x570ce5…
11-02 22:51:03	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	No	BUY	410	1¢	$5	0x421dba…
11-02 22:49:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	21	49¢	$10	0x1131bf…
11-02 22:47:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x2b8ce5…
11-02 22:46:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x21bba1…
11-02 22:46:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x1e9c4a…
11-02 22:45:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	SELL	19	65¢	$12	0x8c7dfa…
11-02 22:45:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x7c8936…