Fat-Indicator — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.11K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

63.9%

Resolved

1,780

Trades

6,120

lifetime

Volume

$29.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-12

last 10-05 09:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 84 days

Categories

Crypto

81% 37% -$1,011

Sports

11% 38% +$217

Other

8% 21% -$309

Politics

0% 17% -$7

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 263 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	30	$1.4K	3,264	3,270	-6	No	+$7	07-11 13:31
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	15	$1.2K	3,621	3,621	+0	No	+$36	07-06 20:34
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	8	$1.1K	559	559	+0	Yes	+$3	04-12 20:44
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	12	$512	917	917	+0	Yes	+$180	07-16 09:11
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-15 21:30 UTC	3	$416	238	238	+0	Down	+$56	07-15 21:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	3	$406	218	206	+13	Up	+$2	07-15 21:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 21:05 UTC	4	$262	256	200	+56	Down	+$2	07-15 21:07
atp mrva roncade 2026 07 16	8	$208	240	240	+0	Franco Roncadelli	-$14	07-16 09:05
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-15 21:00 UTC	3	$207	256	106	+150	Down	+$1	07-15 21:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 21:45 UTC	1	$200	230	0	+230	Down	-$200	07-15 21:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	9	$195	773	121	+653	Down	-$45	10-04 20:54
Spain to score first vs. Argentina?	9	$182	378	99	+279	No	-$75	07-19 21:12
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 22:00 UTC	9	$176	219	172	+47	Down	-$40	07-15 22:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-02 15:40 UTC	6	$174	119	119	+0	Up	+$14	07-02 15:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-15 21:45 UTC	7	$171	260	260	+0	Up	+$33	07-15 21:59
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?	8	$155	21,712	112	+21,600	No	-$53	07-19 21:47
Will England win on 2026-07-15?	11	$134	5,130	0	+5,130	No	-$134	07-15 21:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 09:15 UTC	7	$129	139	127	+12	Up	+$21	07-16 09:18
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-11 14:00 UTC	21	$126	209	161	+48	Up	+$6	08-11 14:13
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-11 13:45 UTC	8	$116	231	131	+100	Up	+$84	08-11 13:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 16:20 UTC	5	$112	232	147	+85	Down	-$18	08-11 16:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 09:10 UTC	8	$112	197	158	+38	Down	-$8	07-16 09:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 18:30 UTC	9	$109	139	97	+42	Down	+$9	08-11 18:33
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	5	$101	9,362	162	+9,200	No	-$25	07-19 21:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	8	$99	110	110	+0	Up	+$9	10-04 21:19
Will Portugal win on 2026-10-04?	2	$97	98	96	+2	Yes	-$1	10-04 20:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	13	$93	148	103	+45	Down	+$16	09-29 20:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 18:35 UTC	4	$93	86	86	+0	Down	+$13	08-11 18:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 15:40 UTC	4	$93	74	74	+0	Down	+$55	07-18 15:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	7	$93	97	97	+0	Down	+$23	09-12 13:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-05 09:38:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	64	3¢	$2	0x6588f5…
10-05 09:28:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 09:25 UTC	Up	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x34f006…
10-05 09:28:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 09:25 UTC	Up	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x54c9e9…
10-05 09:27:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 09:25 UTC	Up	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x22d098…
10-05 08:59:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 08:55 UTC	Down	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0x5d9fc5…
10-05 08:59:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 08:55 UTC	Up	SELL	12	79¢	$9	0x9d665b…
10-05 08:59:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 08:55 UTC	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x6e9d74…
10-05 08:58:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 08:55 UTC	Down	SELL	19	73¢	$14	0x6be710…
10-05 08:58:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 08:55 UTC	Down	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x7589e1…
10-05 08:56:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 08:55 UTC	Down	SELL	22	55¢	$12	0x117755…
10-05 08:55:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 08:55 UTC	Down	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xc91f35…
10-05 08:12:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 08:10 UTC	Down	SELL	13	90¢	$12	0x4d0800…
10-05 08:12:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 08:10 UTC	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x644c90…
10-05 08:11:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 08:10 UTC	Down	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x7e0306…
10-05 08:11:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 08:10 UTC	Up	SELL	12	14¢	$2	0xcf619e…
10-05 08:11:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 08:10 UTC	Up	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0xdea560…
10-05 08:03:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0x741b89…
10-05 08:02:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0xda8f4a…
10-05 08:02:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xb31891…
10-05 08:01:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 08:00 UTC	Down	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x99f74d…
10-05 08:01:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 08:00 UTC	Down	SELL	28	36¢	$10	0xe83ac3…
10-05 08:00:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 08:00 UTC	Down	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0xd4a7bb…
10-05 07:53:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 07:50 UTC	Down	BUY	44	9¢	$4	0x94d98f…
10-05 07:53:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 07:50 UTC	Up	SELL	29	80¢	$24	0x016c1a…
10-05 07:53:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 07:50 UTC	Up	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x619f57…
10-05 07:52:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 07:50 UTC	Down	SELL	28	60¢	$17	0xfe2f58…
10-05 07:52:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 07:50 UTC	Down	BUY	11	36¢	$4	0x11100e…
10-05 07:51:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 07:50 UTC	Down	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x6ca11a…
10-05 07:45:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x59b7de…
10-05 07:45:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	SELL	17	42¢	$7	0x17c356…
10-05 07:45:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0xfea415…
10-04 21:33:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 21:30 UTC	Down	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0xde10d1…
10-04 21:32:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x86ab72…
10-04 21:32:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	SELL	47	35¢	$17	0xc5163d…
10-04 21:30:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0x920cf2…
10-04 21:30:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x80df52…
10-04 21:29:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xa00a51…
10-04 21:29:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	SELL	21	22¢	$5	0x146247…
10-04 21:28:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0xc8e86d…
10-04 21:27:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	SELL	30	28¢	$8	0x6dded7…
10-04 21:26:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xcd0523…
10-04 21:26:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x51fdb6…
10-04 21:25:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	SELL	28	23¢	$7	0x7e9e0c…
10-04 21:25:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x9d1259…
10-04 21:20:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x021d48…
10-04 21:20:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x0e77ee…
10-04 21:19:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	SELL	19	20¢	$4	0x7e1685…
10-04 21:18:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0xdb95e2…
10-04 21:17:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	SELL	44	52¢	$23	0x723ea6…
10-04 21:17:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	44	45¢	$20	0xf2d311…
10-04 21:16:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	SELL	17	64¢	$11	0x73001c…
10-04 21:16:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x75efc5…
10-04 21:15:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	SELL	30	53¢	$16	0x7b41d7…
10-04 21:15:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0x5eeccd…
10-04 21:11:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0xd8ee2a…
10-04 21:11:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	SELL	4	87¢	$3	0x12e8d8…
10-04 21:10:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xc011b9…
10-04 21:04:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x1bfae2…
10-04 21:02:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	18	17¢	$3	0x87ae80…
10-04 21:01:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	SELL	21	44¢	$9	0x660cfc…
10-04 21:01:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x9f1ba3…
10-04 20:58:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	57	14¢	$8	0xc6e39c…
10-04 20:56:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	SELL	17	7¢	$1	0x41d262…
10-04 20:55:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xd7e81c…
10-04 20:54:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xc39704…
10-04 20:53:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0xce4e10…
10-04 20:53:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	32	62¢	$20	0x8d9648…
10-04 20:52:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	87	46¢	$40	0x3b6f79…
10-04 20:52:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	SELL	40	40¢	$16	0x952c5d…
10-04 20:52:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x34b795…
10-04 20:52:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	SELL	81	73¢	$59	0x84c659…
10-04 20:52:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	67	45¢	$30	0x13e8f7…
10-04 20:51:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0x5fcb41…
10-04 20:15:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Up	SELL	61	99¢	$60	0x08764e…
10-04 20:14:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	61	17¢	$10	0xddf19f…
10-04 20:12:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0x2ea071…
10-04 20:12:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x23a43a…
10-04 20:11:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xddd9f3…
10-04 20:08:25	Will Portugal vs. Norway end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	43	36¢	$16	0xec9fb7…
10-04 20:08:08	Will Portugal vs. Norway end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x7d63b6…
10-04 20:04:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0xf5c79d…
10-04 20:03:29	Will Portugal vs. Norway end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0xc6cf0b…
10-04 20:03:08	Will Portugal win on 2026-10-04?	Yes	SELL	96	49¢	$47	0x614daf…
10-04 20:02:25	Will Norway win on 2026-10-04?	Yes	SELL	25	15¢	$4	0x338c81…
10-04 20:02:14	Will Portugal win on 2026-10-04?	Yes	BUY	98	51¢	$50	0x808de7…
10-04 20:00:08	Will Norway win on 2026-10-04?	Yes	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x40855c…
10-04 19:24:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 19:20 UTC	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x6e2d36…
10-04 18:56:35	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-04 18:45 UTC	Down	SELL	17	22¢	$4	0x08c2bf…
10-04 18:55:20	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-04 18:45 UTC	Down	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x31d14d…
10-04 18:53:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 18:50 UTC	Down	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0x795e65…
10-04 18:51:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 18:50 UTC	Down	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x97450a…
10-04 18:18:17	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-04 18:15 UTC	Down	SELL	17	42¢	$7	0xf53977…
10-04 18:17:52	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-04 18:15 UTC	Down	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x18bfbc…
10-04 18:17:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 18:15 UTC	Down	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0xf55d00…
10-04 18:16:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 18:15 UTC	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x656003…
10-04 18:15:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 18:15 UTC	Down	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x0b18e8…
10-04 18:14:55	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-04 18:00 UTC	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x309df5…
10-04 18:14:20	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-04 18:00 UTC	Up	SELL	14	20¢	$3	0x3c61a2…
10-04 18:14:07	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-04 18:00 UTC	Up	BUY	14	31¢	$4	0x4ba4dd…
10-04 18:14:01	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-04 18:00 UTC	Down	SELL	35	61¢	$21	0x2a9d21…