Idle-Probability — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$12

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

99.9%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$23.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$528

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-11

last 06-25 05:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 62% +$12

Other

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (8) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?	No		+6	$6	100¢	$6	+$0	06-25 05:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 6?	1	$2.1K	2,079	0	+2,079	No	+$6	05-07 02:30
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 6?	1	$2.1K	2,073	0	+2,073	No	+$4	05-06 08:19
Will Ethereum reach $2,450 on May 5?	1	$2.1K	2,069	0	+2,069	No	+$4	05-06 02:56
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 5?	1	$2.1K	2,065	0	+2,065	Yes	+$4	05-05 07:45
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 on May 4?	1	$2.1K	2,061	0	+2,061	No	+$4	05-05 02:22
ethereum above 3300 on january 22	1	$1.1K	1,082	0	+1,082	open	—	01-22 02:31
will the price of ethereum be between 3300 3400 on january 21	1	$1.1K	1,080	0	+1,080	open	—	01-21 02:02
will the price of ethereum be between 3500 3600 on january 20	1	$1.1K	1,077	0	+1,077	open	—	01-20 03:03
ethereum above 3500 on january 19	1	$1.1K	1,076	0	+1,076	open	—	01-19 02:40
will the price of ethereum be greater than 3600 on january 18	1	$1.1K	1,074	0	+1,074	open	—	01-18 01:18
will the price of ethereum be between 3400 3500 on january 17	1	$1.1K	1,072	0	+1,072	open	—	01-17 05:04
will the price of ethereum be between 2900 3000 on january 16	1	$1.1K	1,070	0	+1,070	open	—	01-16 06:55
will the price of ethereum be greater than 3600 on january 15	1	$1.1K	1,068	0	+1,068	open	—	01-15 07:00
will the price of bitcoin be between 88000 90000 on january 14	1	$1.1K	1,066	0	+1,066	open	—	01-14 08:05
ethereum above 2800 on january 13	1	$1.1K	1,063	0	+1,063	open	—	01-13 08:56
will the price of ethereum be between 2700 2800 on january 12	1	$1.1K	1,062	0	+1,062	open	—	01-12 04:21
ethereum above 3300 on january 11	1	$1.1K	1,060	0	+1,060	open	—	01-11 07:36
bitcoin above 62k on march 31	1	$16	16	0	+16	open	—	03-30 07:20
bill clinton in jail by december 31	4	$11	6	5	+1	open	—	01-28 16:23
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?	1	$6	6	0	+6	open	—	06-25 05:04
will the price of ethereum be between 2200 2300 on march 10	1	$6	2,153	0	+2,153	open	—	03-10 07:29
nflx above 200 on june 30 2026	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	06-17 10:41
xrp above 1pt8 on february 13	1	$5	1,143	0	+1,143	open	—	02-13 01:12
will the price of bitcoin be between 78000 80000 on february 9	3	$5	1,140	0	+1,140	open	—	02-09 02:01
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on May 12?	1	$4	1,816	0	+1,816	No	$-4	05-12 11:57
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11?	1	$4	1,815	0	+1,815	Yes	$-4	05-11 07:34
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on May 7?	2	$4	1,813	0	+1,813	No	$-4	05-08 01:48
will the price of ethereum be between 2300 2400 on march 6	1	$3	1,142	0	+1,142	open	—	03-06 06:56
will the price of bitcoin be between 56000 58000 on march 2	1	$3	1,108	0	+1,108	open	—	03-02 01:41
Will Hoppers be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?	1	$3	3	0	+3	open	—	04-13 09:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-25 05:04:14	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x102cca…
06-17 10:41:41	nflx above 200 on june 30 2026	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x2f4707…
05-20 07:36:19	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $375 Week of May 18 2026?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xd6e22d…
05-12 11:57:55	Will the price of Solana be above $110 on May 12?	Yes	BUY	1,816	0¢	$4	0x90ec5f…
05-11 07:34:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11?	No	BUY	1,815	0¢	$4	0x866e4f…
05-08 01:48:03	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on May 7?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0x47807b…
05-08 01:48:01	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on May 7?	Yes	BUY	1,810	0¢	$4	0x1b8652…
05-07 02:30:53	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 6?	No	BUY	2,079	100¢	$2,073	0x30b521…
05-06 08:19:28	Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 6?	No	BUY	2,073	100¢	$2,069	0xf43e65…
05-06 02:56:46	Will Ethereum reach $2,450 on May 5?	No	BUY	2,069	100¢	$2,065	0x606645…
05-05 07:45:40	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 5?	Yes	BUY	2,065	100¢	$2,061	0x872c28…
05-05 02:22:28	Will Ethereum reach $2,500 on May 4?	No	BUY	2,061	100¢	$2,057	0x950681…
04-13 09:37:15	Will Hoppers be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xf1ed06…
03-30 07:20:46	bitcoin above 62k on march 31	Yes	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0x95caa6…
03-10 07:29:43	will the price of ethereum be between 2200 2300 on march 10	Yes	BUY	2,153	0¢	$6	0xd7e939…
03-06 06:56:59	will the price of ethereum be between 2300 2400 on march 6	Yes	BUY	1,142	0¢	$3	0x3d9ee4…
03-02 01:41:41	will the price of bitcoin be between 56000 58000 on march 2	Yes	BUY	1,108	0¢	$3	0xc70316…
02-13 01:12:55	xrp above 1pt8 on february 13	Yes	BUY	1,143	0¢	$5	0xbaf5b9…
02-09 02:01:47	will the price of bitcoin be between 78000 80000 on february 9	Yes	BUY	0	0¢	$0	0x1e15f6…
02-09 02:01:47	will the price of bitcoin be between 78000 80000 on february 9	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x0cc3c3…
02-09 02:01:45	will the price of bitcoin be between 78000 80000 on february 9	Yes	BUY	1,120	0¢	$4	0xedccf7…
02-02 10:43:32	will msft close below 390 week february 6 2026	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x079fbb…
02-02 03:00:46	will the price of ethereum be between 2800 2900 on february 2	Yes	BUY	1,068	0¢	$1	0x00957d…
01-31 08:45:54	will the iranian regime fall by january 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x808c28…
01-29 07:41:16	will russia capture all of prymorske by january 31 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x1e0975…
01-28 16:23:30	bill clinton in jail by december 31	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x19eb6b…
01-28 16:23:28	bill clinton in jail by december 31	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x657fe3…
01-28 16:23:24	bill clinton in jail by december 31	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xd1a3c6…
01-28 12:09:19	us recognizes machado as leader of venezuela by january 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xfed096…
01-28 02:56:15	ethereum above 2700 on january 28	No	BUY	1,070	0¢	$1	0xd5d94e…
01-26 11:27:19	bill clinton in jail by december 31	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x56aebd…
01-26 02:36:20	will the price of xrp be greater than 2pt50 on january 26	Yes	BUY	1,076	0¢	$1	0xddadba…
01-22 02:31:44	ethereum above 3300 on january 22	No	BUY	1,082	100¢	$1,080	0x9c3787…
01-21 02:02:52	will the price of ethereum be between 3300 3400 on january 21	No	BUY	1,080	100¢	$1,078	0xefd78b…
01-20 03:03:36	will the price of ethereum be between 3500 3600 on january 20	No	BUY	1,077	100¢	$1,076	0x3f569e…
01-19 02:40:10	ethereum above 3500 on january 19	No	BUY	1,076	100¢	$1,074	0xe54e31…
01-18 01:18:12	will the price of ethereum be greater than 3600 on january 18	No	BUY	1,074	100¢	$1,072	0x2c17df…
01-17 05:04:38	will the price of ethereum be between 3400 3500 on january 17	No	BUY	1,072	100¢	$1,070	0xaf9d5b…
01-16 06:55:40	will the price of ethereum be between 2900 3000 on january 16	No	BUY	1,070	100¢	$1,068	0x3da3cf…
01-15 07:00:56	will the price of ethereum be greater than 3600 on january 15	No	BUY	1,068	100¢	$1,066	0xd319d6…
01-14 08:05:48	will the price of bitcoin be between 88000 90000 on january 14	No	BUY	1,066	100¢	$1,064	0x92b270…
01-13 08:56:23	ethereum above 2800 on january 13	Yes	BUY	1,063	100¢	$1,062	0x5b1966…
01-12 04:21:06	will the price of ethereum be between 2700 2800 on january 12	No	BUY	1,062	100¢	$1,061	0x761092…
01-11 07:36:26	ethereum above 3300 on january 11	No	BUY	1,060	100¢	$1,058	0xdb103d…