Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$86

Unrealized P&L

+$21

Hit rate

51.7%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$558

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

$41

2 positions

First seen

2026-09-27

last 10-16 14:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

80% 53% -$86

Other

18% — —

Politics

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 32 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (19) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes		+664	$10	5¢	$36	+$26	09-27 19:31
Maduro guilty of all counts?	Yes		+14	$10	33¢	$5	-$5	09-27 19:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	2	$30	53	+53	Up	-$20	09-28 19:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 17:45 UTC	1	$25	78	+78	Down	-$25	09-28 17:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 23:05 UTC	1	$25	27	+27	Down	+$2	09-28 23:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 22:45 UTC	1	$25	49	+49	Up	+$24	09-28 22:37
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 22:50 UTC	1	$25	28	+28	Up	+$3	09-28 22:53
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 23:50 UTC	1	$25	45	+45	Up	-$25	09-28 23:52
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 23:00 UTC	1	$25	100	+100	Up	-$25	09-28 23:01
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 17:40 UTC	1	$25	51	+51	Up	+$26	09-28 17:40
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-28 22:30 UTC	1	$25	1,015	+1,015	Up	-$25	09-28 22:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 23:15 UTC	1	$25	27	+27	Up	+$2	09-28 23:16
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 23:25 UTC	1	$25	27	+27	Up	+$2	09-28 23:27
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 23:10 UTC	1	$25	27	+27	Down	+$2	09-28 23:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 17:50 UTC	1	$25	64	+64	Down	-$25	09-28 17:50
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?	1	$10	664	+664	open	—	09-27 19:31
Maduro guilty of all counts?	1	$10	14	+14	open	—	09-27 19:15
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-28 16:00 UTC	2	$10	27	+27	Up	+$10	09-28 16:04
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?	1	$10	231	+231	open	—	09-27 19:25
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	1	$10	233	+233	open	—	09-27 19:25
Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027?	1	$10	1,160	+1,160	open	—	09-27 19:27
Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?	1	$10	711	+711	open	—	09-27 19:31
Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?	1	$10	846	+846	open	—	09-27 19:26
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by December 31?	1	$10	25	+25	open	—	09-27 19:32
US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?	1	$10	40	+40	open	—	09-27 19:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 00:10 UTC	2	$10	60	+60	Down	-$10	09-29 00:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	2	$10	26	+26	Down	-$3	09-28 19:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	2	$10	21	+21	Up	-$2	09-28 20:11
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by December 31?	1	$10	34	+34	open	—	09-27 17:53
Canada admitted to the EU before 2029?	1	$9	63	+63	open	—	09-27 19:36
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 20:55 UTC	1	$5	15	+15	Up	-$5	09-28 20:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 21:45 UTC	1	$5	15	+15	Down	-$5	09-28 21:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-16 14:00:03	Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31?	Yes	BUY	85	5¢	$4	0xfae14d…
09-29 00:45:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 00:45 UTC	Up	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0xa4c024…
09-29 00:19:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 00:20 UTC	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x0e2342…
09-29 00:10:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 00:10 UTC	Up	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x8369a4…
09-29 00:10:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 00:10 UTC	Up	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x0ccc90…
09-29 00:07:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 00:05 UTC	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x4c30ad…
09-28 23:57:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 23:55 UTC	Down	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x5ec71e…
09-28 23:52:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 23:50 UTC	Down	BUY	45	55¢	$25	0xce3fda…
09-28 23:29:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 23:30 UTC	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xea724d…
09-28 23:27:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 23:25 UTC	Up	BUY	27	94¢	$25	0x9d44e9…
09-28 23:16:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 23:15 UTC	Up	BUY	27	91¢	$25	0xd0a782…
09-28 23:11:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 23:10 UTC	Down	BUY	27	94¢	$25	0x028996…
09-28 23:05:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 23:05 UTC	Down	BUY	27	92¢	$25	0x685274…
09-28 23:01:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 23:00 UTC	Down	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0xcc51ab…
09-28 22:53:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 22:50 UTC	Up	BUY	28	90¢	$25	0x2b1153…
09-28 22:38:00	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-28 22:30 UTC	Down	BUY	1,015	2¢	$25	0x6af7ad…
09-28 22:37:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 22:45 UTC	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x99731e…
09-28 21:46:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 21:45 UTC	Up	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x273448…
09-28 21:22:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x89bce6…
09-28 21:15:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 21:15 UTC	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x99ea63…
09-28 20:55:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 20:55 UTC	Down	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0xba298d…
09-28 20:46:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 20:45 UTC	Down	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0xe2e73c…
09-28 20:18:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 20:20 UTC	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x26e8a7…
09-28 20:11:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x33b968…
09-28 20:10:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0xdca4d1…
09-28 19:16:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x58ffe3…
09-28 19:16:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x194228…
09-28 19:11:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x902e4f…
09-28 19:10:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	43	58¢	$25	0x17e85d…
09-28 17:50:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 17:50 UTC	Up	BUY	64	39¢	$25	0x2c319d…
09-28 17:47:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 17:45 UTC	Up	BUY	78	32¢	$25	0xf6c763…
09-28 17:40:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 17:40 UTC	Up	BUY	51	49¢	$25	0x21d26b…
09-28 16:40:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 16:40 UTC	Down	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x98c3e5…
09-28 16:27:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 16:25 UTC	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x54a11e…
09-28 16:22:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 16:20 UTC	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xc72e9a…
09-28 16:04:59	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-28 16:00 UTC	Up	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x81f633…
09-28 16:04:48	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-28 16:00 UTC	Down	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x2ad2d6…
09-28 16:01:29	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-28 15:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0x2df259…
09-27 19:36:53	Canada admitted to the EU before 2029?	Yes	BUY	63	15¢	$9	0xbf0fe6…
09-27 19:32:48	US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by December 31?	Yes	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0x05974c…
09-27 19:31:14	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	664	2¢	$10	0xed17f8…
09-27 19:31:05	Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	711	1¢	$10	0x2c30b1…
09-27 19:27:05	Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,160	1¢	$10	0xc04640…
09-27 19:26:29	Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	846	1¢	$10	0xf93245…
09-27 19:25:33	Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	231	4¢	$10	0x6dd9f3…
09-27 19:25:20	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	233	4¢	$10	0x573c83…
09-27 19:23:21	US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x9f22b2…
09-27 19:15:20	Maduro guilty of all counts?	Yes	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0xa91cdd…
09-27 17:53:29	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by December 31?	Yes	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0xa29717…