Thirsty-Pocketbook — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$677

Unrealized P&L

-$4

Hit rate

57.2%

Resolved

2,802

Trades

5,109

lifetime

Volume

$14.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$16

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-10

last 10-27 04:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 177 days

Categories

Crypto

94% 50% -$665

Other

5% 15% +$1

Tech

1% 35% -$15

Politics

0% 17% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

82 active days in 12wk • peak 67 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-15 House seat?	Yes		+10	$10	96¢	$10	$0	09-24 07:25
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	No		+20	$11	32¢	$7	-$4	10-21 10:30

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	2	$418	272	272	+0	Down	+$121	05-19 12:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	41	$288	320	320	+0	Down	+$96	05-06 12:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	49	$249	830	0	+830	Down	-$249	05-06 16:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	37	$142	475	0	+475	Down	-$142	05-06 15:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	1	$98	100	0	+100	Up	+$2	05-22 07:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	1	$98	100	0	+100	Up	+$2	05-22 07:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	9	$96	320	0	+320	Up	+$64	05-06 11:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	1	$94	96	0	+96	Down	+$2	05-21 21:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	11	$91	2	200	-198	Up	-$111	05-21 08:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	1	$88	90	0	+90	Down	+$2	05-21 21:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	1	$86	0	200	-200	Up	-$114	05-19 12:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	4	$84	81	81	+0	Up	+$0	05-18 13:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	12	$84	210	0	+210	Up	+$21	05-11 08:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	83	$83	660	0	+660	Down	-$83	06-01 12:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	21	$81	270	0	+270	Up	-$81	05-06 15:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	2	$74	52	52	+0	Down	+$28	05-19 13:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	1	$70	114	0	+114	Up	+$44	05-01 20:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	5	$69	48	48	+0	Up	+$23	06-10 00:09
Will the Republican Party win the AK-AL House seat?	6	$68	40	40	+0	open	—	10-06 09:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	2	$62	41	41	+0	Up	+$19	05-18 13:49
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on October 5?	9	$61	65	65	+0	Down	-$8	10-05 13:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	2	$60	40	40	+0	Down	+$18	05-20 20:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	2	$59	40	40	+0	Up	+$19	05-17 13:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	4	$58	100	0	+100	Up	-$58	05-21 08:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 20:00 UTC	7	$56	140	0	+140	Down	+$14	06-09 20:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	6	$54	70	70	+0	Up	+$2	05-17 22:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	11	$53	100	50	+50	Up	+$33	05-17 22:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-05 07:50 UTC	2	$53	49	49	+0	Up	+$1	06-05 07:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	8	$48	160	0	+160	Down	-$48	05-06 12:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	6	$48	160	0	+160	Up	+$32	05-05 21:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 04:01:57	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in October?	No	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0xf2c056…
10-27 02:42:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	7	35¢	$2	0x716f4f…
10-27 02:42:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	13	36¢	$5	0x46ef44…
10-27 00:42:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	12	35¢	$4	0xd6f595…
10-27 00:42:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	12	35¢	$4	0xbd601b…
10-27 00:26:30	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	11	26¢	$3	0xff8f88…
10-26 20:45:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	SELL	6	50¢	$3	0xabfc4e…
10-26 20:44:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	47¢	$1	0x34eef2…
10-26 20:44:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	47¢	$1	0x2a0e89…
10-26 19:57:03	Solana Up or Down - October 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	11	54¢	$6	0x209d61…
10-26 15:13:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x797f4f…
10-26 14:48:06	Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the October meeting?	No	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x4201f0…
10-26 14:47:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x9410c5…
10-26 12:52:29	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?	Yes	BUY	0	40¢	$0	0xc0f5fd…
10-26 12:27:42	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	45¢	$3	0xc6a8f0…
10-26 10:06:54	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on October 26?	No	SELL	15	43¢	$6	0xe6b2d3…
10-26 04:05:47	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on October 26?	No	BUY	11	78¢	$9	0x616238…
10-26 04:04:44	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on October 26?	No	BUY	15	78¢	$12	0x6c2911…
10-26 04:04:42	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on October 26?	No	BUY	15	78¢	$12	0x8cdf6d…
10-26 02:57:47	Solana Up or Down - October 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x9b0410…
10-26 02:57:45	Solana Up or Down - October 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xbb2062…
10-26 02:45:56	Ethereum above 2,300 on October 25, 11PM ET?	Yes	BUY	11	37¢	$4	0x82af32…
10-26 02:43:05	Ethereum above 2,300 on October 25, 11PM ET?	Yes	BUY	11	42¢	$5	0xc634c2…
10-26 02:42:18	Ethereum above 2,300 on October 25, 11PM ET?	Yes	BUY	11	43¢	$5	0xf0beae…
10-25 23:25:57	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?	No	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0xe8c1d7…
10-25 22:04:08	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on October 26?	No	BUY	15	29¢	$4	0xd57e88…
10-25 22:03:26	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $102 on October 26?	No	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0x2b2011…
10-25 20:30:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	13	35¢	$5	0x6a47dd…
10-25 20:30:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0x1b1fbb…
10-25 18:30:41	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $102 on October 26?	No	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x4ddc72…
10-25 18:30:39	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $102 on October 26?	No	BUY	11	36¢	$4	0x1da81d…
10-25 16:37:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xc2f386…
10-25 16:37:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	13	40¢	$5	0x918f23…
10-25 02:27:48	Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xa35c2a…
10-24 23:35:03	bitcoin above 80800 on october 24 2026 8pm et	No	BUY	11	24¢	$3	0x9810ed…
10-24 22:36:11	bitcoin above 80600 on october 24 2026 7pm et	No	BUY	11	39¢	$4	0xc56497…
10-24 22:26:36	Solana Up or Down - October 24, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	6	28¢	$2	0xf45e58…
10-24 21:55:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	12	50¢	$6	0xe6cc90…
10-24 21:55:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x7e3113…
10-24 21:10:50	Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the October meeting?	No	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0xfac32e…
10-24 19:33:48	Will the Central Bank of Colombia decrease the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the October meeting?	No	BUY	11	80¢	$9	0xb06490…
10-24 16:02:41	ethereum above 2340 on october 24 2026 1pm et	Yes	BUY	11	7¢	$1	0x347dde…
10-24 15:39:06	Bitcoin above 79,800 on October 24, 12PM ET?	No	BUY	11	76¢	$8	0x9e7413…
10-24 15:16:23	bitcoin above 79000 on october 24 2026 12pm et	No	BUY	11	7¢	$1	0x8eaf9f…
10-24 11:41:44	Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x150c92…
10-24 04:26:36	Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xacf807…
10-24 01:42:11	Solana Up or Down - October 23, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Down	SELL	5	51¢	$3	0x20109e…
10-24 01:42:09	Solana Up or Down - October 23, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x130673…
10-24 00:35:48	bitcoin above 80800 on october 23 2026 9pm et	Yes	BUY	11	29¢	$3	0x32f8ac…
10-23 22:26:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	13	40¢	$5	0x20149d…
10-23 18:57:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	13	30¢	$4	0x023b50…
10-23 04:31:27	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on October 23?	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0xe6f517…
10-23 01:46:45	Bitcoin above 81,600 on October 22, 10PM ET?	No	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0xab2fdd…
10-22 15:40:42	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Up	SELL	5	23¢	$1	0x050f55…
10-22 15:40:41	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x341cd3…
10-22 04:08:24	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on October 22?	No	BUY	9	83¢	$7	0xc51e3b…
10-21 22:16:41	bitcoin above 84600 on october 21 2026 7pm et	Yes	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0x989d17…
10-21 21:39:06	Solana Up or Down - October 21, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x4810f1…
10-21 19:31:21	Bitcoin above 84,600 on October 21, 4PM ET?	Yes	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0x09230c…
10-21 10:30:36	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0xc0e89f…
10-21 10:27:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xc3dd8f…
10-21 05:27:42	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on October 21?	No	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x4eec79…
10-21 00:13:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	12	50¢	$6	0x23349f…
10-21 00:12:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	12	50¢	$6	0xb51f2c…
10-21 00:12:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x96e5fc…
10-21 00:12:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x39a14b…
10-20 23:42:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	7	51¢	$4	0x661475…
10-20 23:25:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	12	70¢	$9	0x974d88…
10-20 23:06:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	12	65¢	$8	0xcf67bd…
10-20 23:06:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0x3b4193…
10-20 22:40:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xc6f111…
10-20 22:40:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x3c6c65…
10-20 22:40:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	13	29¢	$4	0x0a422f…
10-20 22:40:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	13	27¢	$3	0xb3429c…
10-20 19:34:11	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on October 20?	Down	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0x5fde5b…
10-20 19:33:15	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on October 20?	Down	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0xdb9ed9…
10-20 19:32:29	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on October 20?	Down	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0xc622b8…
10-20 16:47:42	Ethereum above 2,450 on October 20, 1PM ET?	No	BUY	15	30¢	$5	0x3d37b4…
10-20 15:16:33	bitcoin above 83000 on october 20 2026 12pm et	Yes	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0x6a78ac…
10-20 15:14:48	bitcoin above 82600 on october 20 2026 12pm et	Yes	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0x7503ca…
10-20 15:14:32	bitcoin above 82800 on october 20 2026 12pm et	Yes	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0x4ca81d…
10-20 12:43:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x8eccfa…
10-20 11:34:48	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $102 on October 20?	No	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0xe40992…
10-20 10:18:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	SELL	3	63¢	$2	0xb2945c…
10-20 10:15:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xb3ed40…
10-20 08:36:05	Ethereum above 2,400 on October 20, 5AM ET?	Yes	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0x31b497…
10-20 08:36:05	Ethereum above 2,400 on October 20, 5AM ET?	Yes	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0x25feb9…
10-20 08:35:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xc26689…
10-20 08:15:26	Will it rain in Miami, FL on October 20?	Yes	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x46cd85…
10-20 04:41:03	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on October 20?	Down	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xa82804…
10-20 04:41:00	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on October 20?	Down	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x55c2de…
10-20 04:40:48	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on October 20?	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xb09b55…
10-20 04:32:14	Will it rain in Miami, FL on October 20?	No	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x90994c…
10-19 23:39:30	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	SELL	11	86¢	$9	0x188fd8…
10-19 21:49:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x83833d…
10-19 18:42:06	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x6978ce…
10-19 13:00:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0xfdf5da…
10-19 12:41:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	15	61¢	$9	0xdbe0b5…
10-19 11:54:53	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on October 19?	Up	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x1c8fde…
10-19 11:54:27	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on October 19?	Up	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0xacde2f…