Stimulating-Perspective — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$11

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

69.4%

Resolved

Trades

136

lifetime

Volume

$2.24K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$17

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-27

last 06-02 05:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

88% — —

Other

7% — —

Crypto

5% 50% $-11

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 30 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (6) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	11	$1.1K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-29 18:55
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	13	$394	400	400	+0	open	—	06-01 17:50
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	2	$218	130	130	+0	open	—	06-02 05:43
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	2	$195	100	100	+0	open	—	06-01 03:03
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	9	$59	12,253	0	+12,253	open	—	06-01 00:14
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	15	$47	28,334	0	+28,334	open	—	05-29 16:03
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	6	$35	12,355	0	+12,355	open	—	06-01 01:10
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 28?	4	$20	17	16	+1	open	—	04-28 04:54
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	1	$18	18,000	0	+18,000	open	—	05-29 10:39
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 29?	3	$13	105	0	+105	open	—	04-28 05:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	2	$13	10	10	+0	Down	+$3	05-13 16:07
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	5	$13	7,500	0	+7,500	open	—	05-31 13:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	4	$13	10	10	+0	Down	+$1	05-13 15:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	2	$11	30	0	+30	Up	$-11	05-13 16:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	1	$10	21	0	+21	open	—	05-14 16:29
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 28?	2	$9	8	8	+0	open	—	04-28 03:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	3	$7	225	0	+225	open	—	05-14 16:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	3	$7	111	0	+111	Up	+$2	05-13 16:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	6	$6	114	0	+114	open	—	05-14 15:38
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 28?	2	$5	29	27	+1	open	—	04-28 03:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	1	$5	31	0	+31	open	—	05-14 16:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	05-14 15:55
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 28?	2	$4	57	54	+3	open	—	04-28 03:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	4	$4	65	0	+65	open	—	05-14 15:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	3	$3	54	0	+54	open	—	05-14 15:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	3	$3	25	0	+25	open	—	05-14 15:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	3	$3	8	0	+8	open	—	05-14 15:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	3	$3	3	0	+3	Down	+$0	05-13 15:39
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 29?	2	$2	74	71	+4	open	—	04-28 05:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	Up	+$0	05-07 07:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-02 05:43:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	SELL	130	85¢	$110	0x3e7823…
06-01 17:58:53	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	130	83¢	$108	0xd6c1fa…
06-01 17:50:13	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	200	35¢	$70	0x86c4d2…
06-01 17:48:16	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	200	35¢	$70	0xf44d77…
06-01 17:43:20	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	10	68¢	$7	0x2b3f1b…
06-01 17:40:13	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	14	68¢	$10	0x043b34…
06-01 17:39:21	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	6	68¢	$4	0xa67ca3…
06-01 17:39:10	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	10	68¢	$7	0x4a04be…
06-01 17:34:11	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	30	68¢	$20	0xf9428b…
06-01 17:33:29	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	10	68¢	$7	0x5e8ef2…
06-01 17:33:20	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	5	68¢	$3	0x059b1d…
06-01 17:33:17	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	5	68¢	$3	0x5d87da…
06-01 17:32:45	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	10	68¢	$7	0x6c786e…
06-01 17:29:45	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	100	68¢	$68	0x481ebe…
06-01 03:03:12	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xb795eb…
06-01 01:10:06	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	No	BUY	1,069	0¢	$1	0xe0734e…
06-01 00:32:11	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	No	BUY	3,286	0¢	$3	0xfce57a…
06-01 00:14:39	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0x024cf6…
05-31 17:46:44	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	No	BUY	5,000	0¢	$10	0x0aa71b…
05-31 17:42:20	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	No	BUY	2,246	1¢	$16	0xfc1a0f…
05-31 17:42:20	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	No	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x7f08e7…
05-31 17:39:58	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	1,000	2¢	$22	0x9d3b1c…
05-31 13:36:40	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x1f9dda…
05-31 10:28:37	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x5217cc…
05-31 06:46:22	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	No	BUY	753	1¢	$5	0xf6844d…
05-31 06:45:44	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	1,000	1¢	$13	0x5001ec…
05-31 06:45:16	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	105	1¢	$1	0xa3d4dd…
05-30 17:33:44	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0xe36aa5…
05-30 17:33:44	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x96b93e…
05-30 16:10:11	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0x891ef5…
05-30 16:07:45	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	60	7¢	$4	0x887f11…
05-30 16:07:42	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	8	7¢	$1	0xe09bba…
05-30 09:38:16	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0xf8fe62…
05-30 09:35:49	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	200	59¢	$118	0x3400c0…
05-29 18:55:04	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	172	36¢	$62	0x660b07…
05-29 18:54:55	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	67	37¢	$25	0x897534…
05-29 18:54:01	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	261	36¢	$94	0x848b48…
05-29 18:53:16	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	35¢	$175	0xa82687…
05-29 17:59:20	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0xafc5be…
05-29 17:47:52	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	76¢	$152	0xebd094…
05-29 17:42:42	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	77¢	$77	0x4b0e0d…
05-29 17:41:13	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	78¢	$156	0xa5851e…
05-29 17:21:21	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	73¢	$73	0x756d01…
05-29 17:08:16	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	74¢	$74	0xe65470…
05-29 16:46:00	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0x1d5406…
05-29 16:03:27	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	120	0¢	$0	0xac1415…
05-29 15:56:17	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	0¢	$0	0xb96de0…
05-29 15:56:06	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	0¢	$0	0xea46d3…
05-29 15:56:06	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9,591	0¢	$10	0xe6ab92…
05-29 15:56:06	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	0¢	$0	0xb012d0…
05-29 15:56:06	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	0¢	$0	0x9f4a92…
05-29 15:56:06	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	0¢	$0	0x86ebdb…
05-29 15:56:06	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x328123…
05-29 15:56:06	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x1aa0c7…
05-29 15:56:06	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	0¢	$0	0x0a6d58…
05-29 15:56:06	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	0¢	$0	0x09a248…
05-29 15:56:06	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	0¢	$0	0x00cf16…
05-29 15:54:49	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,221	0¢	$4	0x9bac37…
05-29 15:48:56	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6,112	0¢	$12	0x12284e…
05-29 15:46:15	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10,000	0¢	$20	0x60bdaf…
05-29 11:01:33	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	3,000	0¢	$6	0x9a72b0…
05-29 10:39:40	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	Yes	BUY	18,000	0¢	$18	0xa13023…
05-29 07:09:42	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	2,000	0¢	$4	0xa20328…
05-28 23:18:08	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xfb70da…
05-14 16:29:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0xa80fe2…
05-14 16:28:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0x2185f7…
05-14 16:09:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xebe644…
05-14 16:08:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x1f66fc…
05-14 16:07:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0x44c153…
05-14 16:04:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x5e060a…
05-14 15:55:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x6fd5ca…
05-14 15:43:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x84d360…
05-14 15:42:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xa6af86…
05-14 15:40:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x88de2e…
05-14 15:40:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x48876a…
05-14 15:38:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x5d3f52…
05-14 15:38:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x6ce91b…
05-14 15:38:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x2ff67a…
05-14 15:37:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x2c0e26…
05-14 15:36:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x883f19…
05-14 15:35:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x281cfd…
05-14 15:34:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x56f14f…
05-14 15:32:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xb8335a…
05-14 15:31:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xd23069…
05-14 15:27:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x1872d8…
05-14 15:25:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xde31ef…
05-14 15:24:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x40da90…
05-14 15:24:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x0a5f8d…
05-14 15:23:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x935cd7…
05-14 15:15:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xde5175…
05-14 15:15:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x9643cf…
05-14 15:12:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x7daaff…
05-14 15:11:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x2df3af…
05-14 15:10:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xf906ed…
05-13 17:36:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x3901bf…
05-13 17:30:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xc88366…
05-13 16:40:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xb2fa9b…
05-13 16:39:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x0b30a9…
05-13 16:38:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x67ce8d…
05-13 16:23:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xdb83c4…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6	38	$68.6K	1,493	06-09 08:23
(anonymous) 0xb27b…5b82	25	$52.8K	7,650	05-14 16:34
(anonymous) 0xf8e3…fd17	25	$39.0K	3,746	05-14 16:34
(anonymous) 0x3761…c482	25	$17.9K	1,847	05-14 16:34
(anonymous) 0x3375…a69c	25	$15.2K	1,830	05-14 16:34
Rash-Alternative 0xf353…6685	25	$13.4K	634	05-14 16:34
Slight-Goodnight 0x6088…f361	25	$13.0K	619	05-14 16:34
Colorless-Camp 0x0748…92a1	25	$10.6K	1,546	05-14 16:34