Muffled-Alpha — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$49

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

86.3%

Resolved

124

Trades

275

lifetime

Volume

$3.26K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-19

last 05-23 03:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 81% -$40

Other

0% 33% -$2

Sports

0% 0% -$3

Tech

0% 0% -$3

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$1

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-23).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	2	$204	105	105	+0	Down	+$4	05-20 02:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	2	$99	1,084	0	+1,084	Down	-$99	05-21 01:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	4	$88	1,275	1,275	+0	Down	-$12	05-20 02:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	2	$70	45	45	+0	Up	+$20	05-20 00:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	3	$70	45	43	+2	Up	+$16	05-21 02:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	2	$65	40	40	+0	Down	+$15	05-20 00:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	2	$63	38	38	+0	Up	+$13	05-20 02:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	2	$63	38	38	+0	Down	+$13	05-20 00:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	2	$62	38	38	+0	Down	+$13	05-20 02:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	2	$61	36	36	+0	Down	+$11	05-19 23:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	2	$59	33	33	+0	Down	+$7	05-21 02:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	2	$59	33	33	+0	Up	+$7	05-21 02:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	2	$59	33	33	+0	Up	+$7	05-21 02:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	2	$58	32	32	+0	Down	+$6	05-21 02:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	2	$57	32	32	+0	Up	+$7	05-20 23:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	2	$57	32	32	+0	Down	+$7	05-20 01:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	2	$56	31	31	+0	Down	+$6	05-20 00:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	2	$56	31	31	+0	Down	+$6	05-20 01:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	2	$55	32	32	+0	Up	+$7	05-21 04:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	2	$55	30	30	+0	Up	+$5	05-21 01:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	2	$55	30	30	+0	Down	+$5	05-19 23:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	2	$55	30	30	+0	Up	+$5	05-21 02:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	2	$54	29	29	+0	Up	+$4	05-20 17:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	2	$54	29	29	+0	Up	+$4	05-20 01:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	2	$54	29	29	+0	Down	+$4	05-20 01:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	2	$54	29	29	+0	Down	+$4	05-21 01:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	2	$53	29	29	+0	Up	+$3	05-21 02:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	2	$53	28	28	+0	Up	+$1	05-21 02:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	2	$53	28	28	+0	Up	+$3	05-21 01:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	2	$52	27	27	+0	Up	+$0	05-21 02:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-23 03:29:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x591e7c…
05-23 03:24:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xa90ca8…
05-23 03:23:12	Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?	Yes	SELL	6	74¢	$4	0x4462fc…
05-22 03:08:43	Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be between 120k and 140k?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x1a7839…
05-22 03:07:21	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	No	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0xc1fbbe…
05-22 03:03:07	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 22?	Yes	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0xb886a5…
05-22 02:58:55	Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x78b377…
05-22 02:58:02	Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?	Yes	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0x59d77f…
05-22 01:35:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	17	83¢	$14	0x6c12eb…
05-22 01:30:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0xca014e…
05-22 01:24:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x56dba2…
05-22 01:16:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	SELL	18	91¢	$16	0x553c9f…
05-22 01:15:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	BUY	18	79¢	$14	0x3cfdec…
05-22 01:08:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	SELL	16	97¢	$15	0x8707e5…
05-22 01:07:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	16	89¢	$14	0x8b767e…
05-22 01:05:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	SELL	18	99¢	$17	0x35bc8e…
05-22 01:02:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	18	80¢	$14	0xcef4a0…
05-22 01:00:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x5ee387…
05-22 00:59:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	14	97¢	$14	0x752a26…
05-22 00:24:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	SELL	25	4¢	$1	0x49bd6f…
05-22 00:22:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	BUY	25	61¢	$15	0x4ffe38…
05-22 00:22:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	19	79¢	$15	0x90160f…
05-22 00:19:15	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	23	66¢	$15	0x67e0ea…
05-22 00:13:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	SELL	18	93¢	$17	0x74a36f…
05-22 00:11:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	18	84¢	$15	0x27a0e6…
05-22 00:02:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	19	80¢	$15	0x581acb…
05-21 23:54:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	SELL	21	89¢	$18	0x198fe6…
05-21 23:54:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	21	70¢	$15	0x87f6b9…
05-21 23:44:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	16	94¢	$15	0x10c78a…
05-21 23:19:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	SELL	16	97¢	$16	0x98c40b…
05-21 23:17:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	16	91¢	$15	0x951a7e…
05-21 21:24:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x327dad…
05-21 21:24:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x4dfda9…
05-21 21:19:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x840e7a…
05-21 21:18:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0x6cdb24…
05-21 21:13:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	SELL	4	95¢	$3	0xd1b905…
05-21 21:12:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	83¢	$3	0x1e77c2…
05-21 21:12:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	SELL	4	77¢	$3	0x4c4378…
05-21 21:11:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	80¢	$3	0x91616f…
05-21 21:10:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xca0646…
05-21 21:09:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	SELL	4	82¢	$4	0x2f8515…
05-21 21:06:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	4	70¢	$3	0x5ead01…
05-21 21:04:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x927e9a…
05-21 21:01:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	3	93¢	$3	0xbc7151…
05-21 21:01:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	SELL	4	81¢	$3	0xb3255e…
05-21 21:00:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0xcdb75c…
05-21 20:58:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	SELL	3	94¢	$3	0xb46586…
05-21 20:57:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0x3f0993…
05-21 20:57:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	SELL	4	76¢	$3	0xd2db1c…
05-21 20:55:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x19e760…
05-21 20:53:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x2e3a05…
05-21 20:52:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	3	89¢	$3	0x84fcea…
05-21 20:48:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	SELL	3	97¢	$3	0x6acf75…
05-21 20:47:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0xe9f6e4…
05-21 20:44:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	SELL	5	86¢	$5	0x5474e0…
05-21 20:44:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x88995f…
05-21 20:39:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0x4c2c64…
05-21 20:15:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x5f8fc5…
05-21 20:13:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xe7a9d3…
05-21 18:17:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0xfcdf82…
05-21 18:17:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x6cadd0…
05-21 18:14:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xc8079f…
05-21 18:13:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0xca77f4…
05-21 18:12:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x092832…
05-21 18:12:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x4e69c0…
05-21 17:40:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xb32afd…
05-21 17:37:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xa8f786…
05-21 17:37:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0xb204c7…
05-21 17:37:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x20453e…
05-21 17:17:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	SELL	7	98¢	$6	0x609b4d…
05-21 17:16:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xdcd988…
05-21 17:16:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x19fdb9…
05-21 17:16:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0xb5311a…
05-21 16:58:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x16e35b…
05-21 16:57:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x6e75b8…
05-21 16:57:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x04fba9…
05-21 16:57:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xeecbdc…
05-21 16:54:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x5053cb…
05-21 16:53:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x2c3fc2…
05-21 16:53:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0xfd631a…
05-21 16:50:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x39f203…
05-21 16:49:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x6d0dc6…
05-21 16:46:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0xb73c7c…
05-21 16:29:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xf26bf7…
05-21 16:27:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x387cc9…
05-21 16:27:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0xbae381…
05-21 16:25:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x8ea69a…
05-21 16:24:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x7e956a…
05-21 16:24:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0xf41816…
05-21 16:18:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0x320969…
05-21 16:17:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x4b53a4…
05-21 16:17:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x0e571c…
05-21 16:15:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x133a01…
05-21 16:14:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x2dccac…
05-21 15:48:19	World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	No	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0x0e74a4…
05-21 13:44:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xcb101b…
05-21 13:44:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x277642…
05-21 13:39:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	SELL	7	99¢	$6	0x198e8a…
05-21 13:37:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x0a8208…
05-21 13:37:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	3	93¢	$3	0xf6073c…