Subdued-Casserole — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$875

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

77.7%

Resolved

157

Trades

323

lifetime

Volume

$18.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$58

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-17

last 11-06 21:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 27 days

Categories

Other

62% 68% +$832

Crypto

24% 66% +$220

Politics

13% 33% -$136

Sports

2% 43% -$41

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-11-06?	2	$1.2K	755	755	+0	Yes	+$294	11-06 21:39
efl mid wre 2026 08 07 total 2pt5	2	$1.2K	658	658	+0	Under	+$157	08-07 22:24
Will RKS Raków Częstochowa win on 2026-08-13?	2	$1.0K	725	725	+0	Yes	+$406	08-13 19:20
CA Barracas Central vs. Racing Club: O/U 2.5	2	$843	559	559	+0	Under	+$105	11-06 19:54
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	3	$707	437	437	+0	Yes	+$43	11-04 01:16
arg ros ald 2026 08 07 total 2pt5	1	$642	1,070	0	+1,070	Over	-$642	08-07 22:25
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	3	$636	409	409	+0	open	—	11-04 04:08
usc psg av 2026 08 12 total 4pt5	2	$572	315	315	+0	Under	+$56	08-12 21:01
Galatasaray SK vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5	2	$458	304	304	+0	Under	+$148	11-03 19:42
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC Alverca: O/U 3.5	2	$445	277	277	+0	Under	+$108	11-03 00:09
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	2	$376	345	345	+0	No	-$24	11-02 20:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-12 21:00 UTC	2	$342	245	245	+0	Down	+$142	08-12 21:05
sud san mac 2026 08 13 total 3pt5	2	$323	211	211	+0	Under	+$99	08-14 00:32
ucl hbs crv 2026 08 04 total 2pt5	2	$310	211	211	+0	Under	+$112	08-04 19:28
clf olm atm 2026 08 14 total 3pt5	2	$277	177	177	+0	Under	+$72	08-14 17:32
uel por1 stu3 2026 03 19 total 2pt5	2	$274	184	184	+0	Under	+$94	03-19 21:53
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	2	$259	272	272	+0	No	-$129	11-04 01:07
ucl fen stu1 2026 08 05 total 3pt5	2	$258	160	160	+0	Under	+$62	08-05 19:59
brco cap vit 2026 08 03 total 2pt5	2	$240	243	243	+0	Under	+$17	08-04 00:31
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 00:05 UTC	4	$227	200	198	+2	Down	-$51	03-19 00:09
itsb fro bar 2026 03 18 total 4pt5	2	$195	121	121	+0	Under	+$47	03-18 20:48
bra pal bot 2026 03 18 total 3pt5	2	$194	120	120	+0	Under	+$46	03-19 00:04
arg vel ind 2026 08 03 total 2pt5	2	$189	115	115	+0	Under	+$41	08-04 00:13
Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	2	$177	1,040	1,040	+0	No	-$31	11-04 00:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 19:50 UTC	2	$173	91	91	+0	Down	+$7	03-19 19:54
Buffalo vs. Miami (OH)	2	$161	138	138	+0	Buffalo	-$5	11-04 04:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 00:35 UTC	2	$151	99	98	+2	Down	+$44	03-19 00:40
mls nyc tor 2026 07 31 total 2pt5	2	$145	109	109	+0	Under	+$47	08-01 01:36
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	2	$144	82	82	+0	Yes	+$19	11-04 03:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 00:15 UTC	4	$140	139	137	+2	Down	-$20	03-19 00:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 21:39:07	Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-11-06?	Yes	SELL	755	100¢	$755	0x3f9f2b…
11-06 19:57:46	Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-11-06?	Yes	BUY	755	61¢	$461	0xb51fa0…
11-06 19:54:28	CA Barracas Central vs. Racing Club: O/U 2.5	Under	SELL	559	85¢	$474	0x7b7e44…
11-06 18:19:31	CA Barracas Central vs. Racing Club: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	559	66¢	$369	0xf87969…
11-04 04:34:27	Buffalo vs. Miami (OH)	Miami (OH)	SELL	138	57¢	$78	0x148b0d…
11-04 04:31:00	Buffalo vs. Miami (OH)	Miami (OH)	BUY	138	60¢	$83	0x820fc2…
11-04 04:08:07	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	SELL	409	87¢	$356	0x9f9fb0…
11-04 04:04:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x30c03e…
11-04 04:03:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x082925…
11-04 04:02:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	35	71¢	$25	0x149bdf…
11-04 04:01:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	32	79¢	$25	0x81d193…
11-04 04:01:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	38	65¢	$25	0xd9038e…
11-04 03:56:45	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	82	100¢	$82	0x23229a…
11-04 01:17:36	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	286	74¢	$211	0xdcc684…
11-04 01:16:52	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	223	96¢	$214	0x9c8250…
11-04 01:11:55	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	82	77¢	$63	0xfd8374…
11-04 01:07:01	Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	272	24¢	$65	0xf86dba…
11-04 00:04:19	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	123	56¢	$69	0xdea5e9…
11-04 00:04:04	Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	SELL	1,040	7¢	$73	0xae5a59…
11-03 22:45:43	Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	272	71¢	$194	0x3c7ded…
11-03 22:44:52	Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	BUY	1,040	10¢	$104	0xe3db68…
11-03 19:42:39	Galatasaray SK vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5	Under	SELL	304	100¢	$303	0xa96042…
11-03 19:05:39	Galatasaray SK vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	304	51¢	$155	0xb4556d…
11-03 19:05:16	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	214	75¢	$161	0xf3e6c4…
11-03 00:11:42	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	437	76¢	$332	0x0f18c7…
11-03 00:09:28	Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC Alverca: O/U 3.5	Under	SELL	277	100¢	$276	0x8191a0…
11-02 20:36:36	Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC Alverca: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	277	61¢	$169	0x385da9…
11-02 20:35:58	Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	345	51¢	$176	0x8ca359…
11-02 20:34:31	Newcastle United FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	59	68¢	$40	0x94ccaa…
11-02 20:34:01	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	198	21¢	$42	0xd7a8c7…
11-01 19:06:52	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	198	28¢	$55	0x8652f2…
11-01 19:05:51	Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	345	58¢	$200	0xbba9ff…
08-14 19:30:21	spl ett riy 2026 08 14 total 5pt5	Under	BUY	35	71¢	$25	0x2cda4a…
08-14 19:28:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 19:25 UTC	Up	SELL	26	99¢	$25	0x487bdb…
08-14 19:28:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 19:25 UTC	Up	BUY	26	94¢	$24	0x69e52d…
08-14 19:17:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 19:15 UTC	Up	SELL	62	21¢	$13	0xfcfcb1…
08-14 19:15:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 19:15 UTC	Up	BUY	62	58¢	$36	0x743b49…
08-14 19:12:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 19:10 UTC	Up	SELL	75	13¢	$10	0xf7f0ee…
08-14 19:09:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 19:10 UTC	Up	BUY	75	53¢	$40	0x99e933…
08-14 19:07:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 19:05 UTC	Up	SELL	32	25¢	$8	0x66b0d7…
08-14 19:05:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 19:05 UTC	Up	BUY	32	53¢	$17	0xd80aff…
08-14 19:04:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 19:00 UTC	Down	SELL	51	99¢	$51	0x29b6ce…
08-14 19:02:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 19:00 UTC	Down	BUY	51	72¢	$37	0x8a108f…
08-14 18:59:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 18:55 UTC	Down	SELL	42	7¢	$3	0xda23e9…
08-14 18:58:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 18:55 UTC	Down	BUY	42	70¢	$29	0x6da085…
08-14 17:32:06	clf olm atm 2026 08 14 total 3pt5	Under	SELL	177	99¢	$175	0xab056f…
08-14 15:54:28	clf olm atm 2026 08 14 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	177	58¢	$102	0x11660f…
08-14 00:32:12	sud san mac 2026 08 13 total 3pt5	Under	SELL	211	100¢	$211	0x2b4739…
08-13 22:16:01	sud san mac 2026 08 13 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	211	53¢	$112	0x51482b…
08-13 19:20:10	Will RKS Raków Częstochowa win on 2026-08-13?	Yes	SELL	725	100¢	$725	0x25873d…
08-13 18:01:52	Will RKS Raków Częstochowa win on 2026-08-13?	Yes	BUY	725	44¢	$319	0x8013df…
08-13 17:02:07	Will Hammarby Fotboll win on 2026-08-13?	Yes	BUY	201	61¢	$123	0xe792e8…
08-12 21:05:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-12 21:00 UTC	Down	SELL	245	99¢	$242	0x26eced…
08-12 21:04:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-12 21:00 UTC	Down	BUY	245	41¢	$100	0x55a242…
08-12 21:01:54	usc psg av 2026 08 12 total 4pt5	Under	SELL	315	100¢	$314	0x266712…
08-12 18:29:27	Aston Villa to score first vs. Paris Saint-Germain?	Yes	BUY	61	31¢	$19	0xde350d…
08-12 18:27:10	usc psg av 2026 08 12 total 4pt5	Under	BUY	315	82¢	$258	0x1e4253…
08-12 18:26:52	Will Aston Villa win on 2026-08-12?	Yes	BUY	417	18¢	$75	0x6119e1…
08-07 22:25:58	arg ros ald 2026 08 07 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	1,070	60¢	$642	0xbeb53e…
08-07 22:24:13	efl mid wre 2026 08 07 total 2pt5	Under	SELL	658	100¢	$657	0x32bd44…
08-07 20:18:49	efl mid wre 2026 08 07 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	658	76¢	$500	0x978a26…
08-06 00:42:59	brco fec pal 2026 08 05 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	176	64¢	$113	0xff9dc8…
08-06 00:37:26	brco cru cha 2026 08 05 total 3pt5	Under	SELL	41	100¢	$40	0x5ddb76…
08-06 00:37:06	brco cru cha 2026 08 05 total 2pt5	Under	SELL	75	100¢	$74	0xa3a3ed…
08-05 23:06:38	brco cru cha 2026 08 05 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	41	74¢	$30	0xe4219b…
08-05 23:06:23	brco cru cha 2026 08 05 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	75	47¢	$35	0x2115e2…
08-05 21:01:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 21:00 UTC	Down	SELL	19	90¢	$17	0x833658…
08-05 21:00:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 21:00 UTC	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xc545ca…
08-05 21:00:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 21:00 UTC	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xb37b15…
08-05 19:59:47	ucl fen stu1 2026 08 05 total 3pt5	Under	SELL	160	100¢	$160	0x929c83…
08-05 18:35:00	ucl fen stu1 2026 08 05 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	160	61¢	$98	0x057b51…
08-05 13:26:47	clf cfc juv 2026 08 05 total 1pt5	Under	SELL	43	99¢	$42	0xe84bef…
08-05 13:08:50	clf cfc juv 2026 08 05 total 1pt5	Under	BUY	43	57¢	$24	0xc40e1c…
08-04 22:43:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 22:40 UTC	Down	BUY	62	81¢	$50	0x029654…
08-04 19:28:15	ucl hbs crv 2026 08 04 total 2pt5	Under	SELL	211	100¢	$211	0x889114…
08-04 17:42:41	ucl hbs crv 2026 08 04 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	211	47¢	$99	0xebcefc…
08-04 17:39:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 17:35 UTC	Down	SELL	72	98¢	$71	0xd70cca…
08-04 17:37:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 17:35 UTC	Down	BUY	36	70¢	$25	0x95a117…
08-04 17:37:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 17:35 UTC	Down	BUY	37	68¢	$25	0x6b3743…
08-04 16:56:06	col aud din3 2026 08 04 total 0pt5	Under	BUY	212	32¢	$68	0x480855…
08-04 16:48:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	28	88¢	$25	0xb6b7f2…
08-04 16:48:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	29	87¢	$25	0x4f05e4…
08-04 13:22:42	clf avl pau 2026 08 04 total 4pt5	Under	SELL	103	63¢	$65	0x600dcc…
08-04 13:01:36	clf avl pau 2026 08 04 total 4pt5	Under	BUY	103	57¢	$59	0x1f026d…
08-04 12:56:23	clf avl pau 2026 08 04 btts	No	BUY	95	46¢	$44	0x3e95ad…
08-04 00:31:36	brco cap vit 2026 08 03 total 2pt5	Under	SELL	243	53¢	$129	0x0a87bd…
08-04 00:16:47	brco cap vit 2026 08 03 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	243	46¢	$112	0xd4e055…
08-04 00:13:57	arg vel ind 2026 08 03 total 2pt5	Under	SELL	115	100¢	$115	0xbd1a60…
08-03 22:08:45	arg vel ind 2026 08 03 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	115	64¢	$74	0x205f29…
08-01 23:49:27	mls nyr orl 2026 08 01 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	110	54¢	$60	0x7e218d…
08-01 01:36:11	mls nyc tor 2026 07 31 total 2pt5	Under	SELL	109	88¢	$96	0x50e4ec…
08-01 00:22:17	mls nyc tor 2026 07 31 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	109	45¢	$49	0x4c9642…
07-05 22:20:46	fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 team to advance	England	BUY	63	51¢	$32	0x7cafbe…
07-05 21:59:55	fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 extra time	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x64d0b4…
07-05 21:59:53	fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 extra time	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x56de21…
07-05 21:59:49	fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 extra time	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xb46416…
07-05 21:05:13	fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 extra time	No	BUY	32	69¢	$22	0x2d41a1…
07-05 20:59:11	fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 total 3pt5	Under	SELL	25	90¢	$22	0x03b300…
07-05 16:24:22	fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	25	65¢	$16	0x2e8b31…
07-04 19:21:38	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	333	7¢	$22	0xca13ac…