Wary-Shelter — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$14.1K

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

48.4%

Resolved

Trades

1,187

lifetime

Volume

$299.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$252

Open exposure

$13

1 position

First seen

2026-01-08

last 11-06 12:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 54 days

Categories

Politics

99% 29% +$15,552

Other

1% 22% -$1,422

Tech

0% 0% -$50

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes		+164	$10	8¢	$13	+$3	11-06 07:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
iran closes its airspace by june 8	32	$38.0K	30,000	30,000	+0	Yes	+$10,000	06-07 20:45
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	53	$36.4K	69,164	30,704	+38,460	No	-$7,260	06-08 11:19
iran closes its airspace by june 15	43	$33.6K	30,000	30,000	+0	Yes	+$19,781	06-07 20:54
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	57	$30.5K	60,821	28,938	+31,882	No	+$58,704	05-26 01:27
israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	20	$20.6K	11,905	11,905	+0	No	+$599	06-08 10:42
israel closes its airspace by june 8	150	$19.5K	100,880	0	+100,880	No	-$19,499	06-08 11:21
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	92	$15.6K	101,556	0	+101,556	No	-$15,636	05-26 13:08
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?	63	$15.1K	37,306	37,306	+0	Yes	-$3,149	07-24 21:17
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	51	$14.2K	91,397	95,515	-4,118	No	-$12,143	05-28 02:46
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	6	$13.8K	39,300	39,300	+0	Yes	-$5,895	07-28 22:03
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	39	$8.7K	41,885	4,955	+36,930	No	-$8,717	06-01 06:24
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	53	$7.9K	73,473	73,473	+0	Yes	-$1,903	07-22 18:56
will the us next strike iran on february 28 2026 et	2	$7.0K	3,799	3,799	+0	Yes	+$552	03-01 09:51
israel closes its airspace by june 9	43	$5.7K	27,913	0	+27,913	No	-$5,729	06-08 11:18
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	7	$4.9K	10,000	4,589	+5,411	No	+$9,514	05-26 00:34
Israel closes its airspace by June 14?	26	$3.5K	50,387	0	+50,387	No	-$3,543	06-14 20:31
israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	13	$3.4K	19,990	19,990	+0	No	-$1,399	07-28 22:07
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	7	$2.7K	7,730	1,933	+5,798	No	+$6,932	05-26 00:38
israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	27	$2.5K	49,160	0	+49,160	No	-$2,500	07-11 23:59
iran full airspace closure by july 24	19	$2.2K	7,492	7,492	+0	No	+$27	07-23 17:50
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	30	$2.1K	8,013	8,013	+0	No	-$2,124	05-09 05:07
israel closes its airspace by july 24	18	$2.0K	8,419	8,419	+0	No	+$40	07-23 20:13
will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	2	$1.5K	1,430	1,430	+0	Yes	+$1,328	06-18 17:58
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?	2	$1.1K	10,000	10,000	+0	No	-$880	07-29 01:45
israel closes its airspace by june 10	2	$1.0K	43,480	534	+42,946	No	-$998	06-11 07:32
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	4	$540	2,000	2,000	+0	Yes	+$140	02-27 20:44
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	8	$433	305	305	+0	open	—	11-06 12:27
israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	6	$429	1,340	1,340	+0	Yes	+$27	02-27 21:31
israel closes its airspace by june 11	3	$405	18,396	0	+18,396	No	-$405	06-11 17:31
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	3	$352	7,226	7,226	+0	No	-$48	05-08 21:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 12:27:24	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	13	78¢	$10	0xbc9f3e…
11-06 07:31:00	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	164	6¢	$10	0x0a6d0d…
11-05 21:13:57	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	147	78¢	$115	0x72d9bc…
11-02 07:38:09	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	No	BUY	1,042	1¢	$9	0xb3bd7a…
11-02 07:20:07	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	No	BUY	34	1¢	$0	0x807970…
11-02 06:53:15	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	No	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x6c68c3…
11-02 06:53:03	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	No	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x19906f…
11-02 06:53:01	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	No	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0xb2fecf…
11-02 06:52:58	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	No	BUY	27	1¢	$0	0x4ce7cc…
11-02 06:52:58	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	No	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x293f37…
10-30 19:21:19	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 30?	No	BUY	165	0¢	$1	0xbd46f7…
10-27 21:00:54	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	SELL	3	0¢	$0	0xa7ee2f…
10-27 21:00:53	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	SELL	436	0¢	$1	0xae7012…
10-27 21:00:50	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	SELL	9	0¢	$0	0xfbd6f5…
10-27 20:15:39	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x26fc82…
10-27 13:52:06	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x5e5b82…
10-27 13:24:18	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	SELL	38	0¢	$0	0xecb3cc…
10-27 13:22:36	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	SELL	201	0¢	$1	0x50bed3…
10-27 12:32:42	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x07070d…
10-23 21:03:51	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	BUY	2,000	5¢	$100	0x84c2a6…
10-23 20:26:27	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	BUY	1,667	6¢	$100	0xda1cbc…
07-29 01:45:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?	Yes	SELL	10,000	1¢	$120	0x3a340e…
07-28 22:07:55	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	19,990	5¢	$999	0x8b3cfe…
07-28 22:03:22	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	No	SELL	23,350	10¢	$2,335	0x745c93…
07-28 22:03:20	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	No	SELL	1,963	10¢	$196	0xf016b3…
07-28 22:03:04	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	No	SELL	221	10¢	$22	0xc6b338…
07-28 22:02:59	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	No	SELL	11,000	10¢	$1,100	0x1b81a4…
07-28 21:58:52	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	No	SELL	2,765	10¢	$277	0xeb8077…
07-25 13:12:10	will wti reach 105 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	10,000	10¢	$1,000	0xff0772…
07-25 09:37:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	No	BUY	39,300	25¢	$9,825	0x807208…
07-24 21:17:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	SELL	525	16¢	$84	0x85cb3d…
07-24 21:16:31	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	SELL	625	16¢	$100	0xb9e033…
07-24 21:14:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	SELL	72	16¢	$12	0xd941a4…
07-24 21:14:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	SELL	1,000	16¢	$160	0x1e7ed1…
07-24 21:13:07	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	SELL	11,111	16¢	$1,778	0x197c66…
07-24 21:10:22	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	SELL	31	16¢	$5	0xbe78b5…
07-24 21:07:52	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	SELL	1,875	16¢	$300	0xdb24e7…
07-24 21:07:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	SELL	1,875	16¢	$300	0xae3688…
07-24 21:07:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	SELL	7	16¢	$1	0xb53070…
07-24 20:06:46	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	SELL	26	16¢	$4	0xbf44d8…
07-24 20:05:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	SELL	13	16¢	$2	0x7f2b1d…
07-24 20:05:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	SELL	312	16¢	$50	0x7dee2c…
07-24 20:05:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	SELL	5,290	16¢	$846	0xb3bfe3…
07-24 20:03:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	SELL	13	16¢	$2	0x7bb762…
07-24 20:03:19	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	SELL	14,530	16¢	$2,325	0x4c3940…
07-23 20:13:45	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	SELL	7,758	12¢	$931	0xd9ba9e…
07-23 20:00:43	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	SELL	222	12¢	$27	0x547c8d…
07-23 17:50:57	iran full airspace closure by july 24	Yes	SELL	7,492	15¢	$1,124	0x0af2b5…
07-23 16:19:28	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	21,367	23¢	$4,915	0xbe25fd…
07-23 16:16:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	3	23¢	$1	0x754c3f…
07-23 16:10:45	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	50	23¢	$12	0x7ff9e2…
07-23 16:08:37	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?	No	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0xba9a32…
07-23 16:05:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	215	23¢	$49	0x58c48f…
07-23 16:03:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	11	23¢	$2	0x22ed82…
07-23 15:59:21	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	19	23¢	$4	0xe7c65e…
07-23 11:43:31	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	SELL	54	12¢	$6	0x4a0b24…
07-23 09:04:30	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	SELL	17	12¢	$2	0xe8b3ff…
07-23 08:52:55	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	SELL	368	12¢	$44	0xf7b79c…
07-23 03:58:43	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	72	23¢	$17	0x2505cd…
07-23 02:03:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	3	23¢	$1	0x88dd82…
07-23 02:02:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	3	23¢	$1	0x92956a…
07-23 02:02:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	3	23¢	$1	0x3c5c92…
07-23 02:02:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	162	23¢	$37	0x8707fb…
07-23 00:59:25	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	3	23¢	$1	0x3b8085…
07-23 00:59:21	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	3	23¢	$1	0x871e01…
07-23 00:58:43	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	14	23¢	$3	0x17ea3f…
07-23 00:58:31	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	3	23¢	$1	0x521d49…
07-23 00:58:25	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	3	23¢	$1	0x2ccdf7…
07-22 23:55:37	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	3	23¢	$1	0xf49f57…
07-22 23:51:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	2	23¢	$0	0xe29f49…
07-22 23:23:10	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	55	23¢	$13	0x762aab…
07-22 18:56:45	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	SELL	73,231	4¢	$3,002	0x603a8e…
07-22 18:35:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	SELL	14	4¢	$1	0x041680…
07-22 17:19:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	SELL	228	4¢	$9	0x9fcad8…
07-22 16:21:22	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	316	11¢	$35	0x2edbe6…
07-22 16:16:46	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	BUY	3,037	5¢	$155	0xc5c215…
07-22 16:16:31	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0xba3fd3…
07-22 16:16:28	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	BUY	10,000	5¢	$510	0x36e32e…
07-22 16:16:22	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	BUY	1,400	5¢	$71	0x63623d…
07-22 16:16:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	BUY	150	5¢	$8	0xf5af2b…
07-22 16:14:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	BUY	8	5¢	$0	0xc02a07…
07-22 16:14:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	BUY	400	5¢	$20	0xcb00e5…
07-22 16:07:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	2,794	27¢	$754	0x5e69da…
07-22 16:07:01	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	203	27¢	$55	0x60e4ba…
07-22 16:05:58	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	2	27¢	$1	0x17ce2c…
07-22 16:05:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xcdaa3f…
07-22 16:04:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	1	27¢	$0	0x33b5c3…
07-22 16:04:13	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	1,229	27¢	$332	0xfec3f6…
07-22 16:03:13	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	1	27¢	$0	0x3d3703…
07-22 16:03:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	1,948	27¢	$526	0x149663…
07-22 16:01:22	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	1	27¢	$0	0x9cfa8f…
07-22 16:01:21	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	62	27¢	$17	0x2c7881…
07-22 16:00:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	1,617	27¢	$436	0x21c0f5…
07-22 15:51:43	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	322	27¢	$87	0x653b92…
07-22 15:37:40	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	2	27¢	$1	0xc10be1…
07-22 15:37:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	2	27¢	$1	0x5dcdab…
07-22 15:37:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	2	27¢	$1	0x16432d…
07-22 15:35:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	2	27¢	$1	0x56317d…
07-22 15:33:13	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	271	27¢	$73	0xc110bf…
07-22 15:30:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	1,470	27¢	$397	0xc312d8…