Previous-Principle — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$26.2K

Unrealized P&L

+$7.56K

Hit rate

53.5%

Resolved

195

Trades

1,293

lifetime

Volume

$435.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$337

Open exposure

$15.6K

1 position

First seen

2026-01-15

last 10-27 22:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 99 days

Categories

Politics

74% 53% -$10,281

Other

24% 53% -$15,788

Crypto

1% 20% -$515

Tech

1% 75% +$296

Sports

0% 100% +$48

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 30 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes		+30,246	$8,013	52¢	$15.6K	+$7,564	10-27 22:52

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?	17	$70.5K	35,339	35,339	+0	No	+$128	08-27 23:50
will iran strike israel on march 6	28	$42.2K	25,794	23,544	+2,250	No	-$818	03-11 14:21
will iran strike israel on march 10	28	$31.2K	24,695	15,114	+9,582	Yes	-$5,127	03-14 00:34
nato downs another russian drone by august 31 20260726215001931	9	$19.8K	19,871	0	+19,871	Yes	+$51	08-21 10:49
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?	4	$15.4K	7,990	7,990	+0	Yes	-$525	09-03 20:55
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	2	$14.5K	18,969	0	+18,969	No	-$14,531	05-19 14:49
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	10	$13.9K	9,188	5,144	+4,044	Yes	-$16	04-07 23:22
us x iran ceasefire by april 10	9	$10.3K	8,130	3,088	+5,042	Yes	-$693	04-07 23:35
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	3	$8.0K	30,246	0	+30,246	open	—	10-27 22:52
will israel take military action in gaza on march 28 2026	16	$7.5K	5,373	5,373	+0	No	+$107	04-02 16:19
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	11	$7.1K	7,213	0	+7,213	No	+$67	08-16 14:42
Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in Japan?	7	$6.7K	7,000	0	+7,000	No	+$291	09-02 00:03
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	10	$6.5K	4,660	4,660	+0	No	-$105	04-17 15:00
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	2	$6.1K	6,746	0	+6,746	Yes	+$647	03-25 14:23
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 22 2026 392	1	$5.8K	5,989	0	+5,989	Yes	+$147	03-22 15:18
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?	11	$5.0K	4,997	0	+4,997	Yes	+$25	08-21 20:43
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	4	$5.0K	3,029	2,026	+1,002	Yes	-$48	04-07 23:26
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 25, 2026?	3	$4.9K	2,649	2,649	+0	Yes	-$385	09-03 20:55
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?	6	$4.5K	4,642	0	+4,642	No	+$121	05-09 00:06
will artemis ii launch by april 30 584 422 878 853 499	8	$4.5K	4,621	0	+4,621	Yes	+$101	04-01 22:29
will donald trump publicly insult someone on august 13 2026 20260724221849644	4	$4.3K	4,540	0	+4,540	Yes	-$6	08-13 22:04
Will Trump praise Bryson DeChambeau in August?	20	$4.2K	4,702	1,000	+3,702	Yes	-$932	09-02 12:08
us strike on somalia by march 7 324	12	$4.2K	4,375	0	+4,375	No	+$162	03-09 23:29
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	4	$4.0K	3,017	1,010	+2,006	Yes	-$20	04-07 23:26
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026?	2	$3.9K	2,014	2,014	+0	Yes	-$93	09-03 20:55
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get less than 40 million views on day 1?	6	$3.8K	3,784	0	+3,784	Yes	+$8	08-28 17:12
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 25 2026 431	13	$3.6K	2,080	2,080	+0	Yes	-$407	03-26 18:18
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 26 2026 528	18	$3.6K	3,643	0	+3,643	Yes	+$82	03-26 19:09
will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	2	$3.4K	3,373	30	+3,343	No	+$3	08-05 14:18
will israel take military action in gaza on march 18 2026	18	$3.3K	2,286	2,266	+20	Yes	-$16	03-19 20:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 22:52:42	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	3,409	44¢	$1,500	0x11760f…
10-27 21:16:59	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	4,060	37¢	$1,502	0x0d54cb…
10-27 14:58:18	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	22,777	22¢	$5,011	0xf93b51…
09-25 00:05:41	Will Netanyahu use a visual aid during his UNGA speech?	No	BUY	36	30¢	$11	0xdd21f7…
09-25 00:05:41	Will Netanyahu use a visual aid during his UNGA speech?	No	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0x49cbcb…
09-25 00:05:39	Will Netanyahu use a visual aid during his UNGA speech?	No	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0xf7e30f…
09-25 00:05:39	Will Netanyahu use a visual aid during his UNGA speech?	No	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0xc58ff4…
09-25 00:05:39	Will Netanyahu use a visual aid during his UNGA speech?	No	BUY	2	30¢	$1	0x9b25b8…
09-25 00:05:39	Will Netanyahu use a visual aid during his UNGA speech?	No	BUY	4	30¢	$1	0x8f7e3a…
09-25 00:05:39	Will Netanyahu use a visual aid during his UNGA speech?	No	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x83eec9…
09-25 00:05:39	Will Netanyahu use a visual aid during his UNGA speech?	No	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x749f19…
09-25 00:05:39	Will Netanyahu use a visual aid during his UNGA speech?	No	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0x5e7d69…
09-25 00:05:39	Will Netanyahu use a visual aid during his UNGA speech?	No	BUY	4	30¢	$1	0x51f106…
09-25 00:05:39	Will Netanyahu use a visual aid during his UNGA speech?	No	BUY	25	30¢	$7	0x4d4e53…
09-25 00:05:39	Will Netanyahu use a visual aid during his UNGA speech?	No	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x0dc87e…
09-25 00:05:39	Will Netanyahu use a visual aid during his UNGA speech?	No	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x023008…
09-24 23:59:29	Will Netanyahu use a visual aid during his UNGA speech?	No	BUY	100	39¢	$39	0xcac377…
09-24 23:51:36	Will Netanyahu use a visual aid during his UNGA speech?	No	BUY	100	44¢	$44	0x6dbf52…
09-05 13:25:09	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	No	BUY	100	31¢	$31	0x248f33…
09-05 13:15:43	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	No	BUY	100	32¢	$32	0xd67578…
09-05 08:46:07	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	BUY	339	100¢	$338	0xcceed3…
09-05 03:24:42	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	BUY	661	100¢	$660	0x354ffb…
09-03 20:55:39	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7,990	93¢	$7,446	0x685799…
09-03 20:55:34	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 25, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,649	85¢	$2,261	0x084e73…
09-03 20:55:28	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,014	95¢	$1,919	0xd0f516…
09-03 15:45:13	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,635	100¢	$2,632	0xa001fc…
09-03 15:45:09	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x4c9544…
09-03 15:44:45	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,165	100¢	$2,163	0x1873c0…
09-03 15:44:42	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	844	100¢	$842	0x1e6777…
09-03 15:44:37	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,981	100¢	$4,966	0x897b19…
09-03 15:43:34	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,014	100¢	$2,012	0x466c3e…
09-02 12:08:40	Will Trump praise Bryson DeChambeau in August?	Yes	BUY	99	99¢	$98	0x3c22e2…
09-02 11:50:00	Will Trump praise Bryson DeChambeau in August?	Yes	BUY	603	99¢	$597	0xa5e35d…
09-02 11:44:19	Will Trump praise Bryson DeChambeau in August?	Yes	BUY	53	99¢	$53	0xac21e8…
09-02 00:03:10	Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in Japan?	No	BUY	1,000	96¢	$959	0x58f9e3…
09-01 18:27:39	Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in Japan?	No	BUY	1,000	96¢	$958	0x25e9b2…
09-01 16:13:12	Putin meets with Iranian officials by August 31?	No	BUY	200	46¢	$92	0xe63c81…
09-01 15:57:13	Will Trump praise Bryson DeChambeau in August?	No	BUY	96	6¢	$6	0xd1001e…
09-01 15:55:40	Putin meets with Iranian officials by August 31?	No	SELL	83	49¢	$40	0x02acc9…
09-01 14:59:42	Will Trump praise Bryson DeChambeau in August?	No	BUY	2	6¢	$0	0x345471…
09-01 14:59:37	Will Trump praise Bryson DeChambeau in August?	No	BUY	2	6¢	$0	0x77201c…
09-01 14:46:43	Putin meets with Iranian officials by August 31?	No	BUY	82	31¢	$25	0x9c02ee…
09-01 14:46:21	Putin meets with Iranian officials by August 31?	No	BUY	18	31¢	$6	0xd05b53…
09-01 14:03:57	Putin meets with Iranian officials by August 31?	No	BUY	100	38¢	$38	0x97f77d…
09-01 13:49:37	Putin meets with Iranian officials by August 31?	No	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0x0640d1…
09-01 13:34:49	Will Trump praise Bryson DeChambeau in August?	No	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0x55a1b9…
09-01 13:32:39	Will Trump praise Bryson DeChambeau in August?	No	BUY	100	55¢	$55	0x78fe79…
09-01 13:30:34	Will Trump praise Bryson DeChambeau in August?	No	BUY	200	55¢	$111	0xedecc9…
09-01 13:27:36	Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in Japan?	No	BUY	1,000	95¢	$949	0xb70c82…
09-01 13:18:12	Putin meets with Iranian officials by August 31?	No	BUY	100	36¢	$36	0xceedaa…
09-01 13:12:37	Putin meets with Iranian officials by August 31?	No	BUY	100	39¢	$39	0x8282e2…
09-01 13:03:45	Will Trump praise Bryson DeChambeau in August?	Yes	SELL	1,000	30¢	$296	0xb5a28d…
09-01 12:40:28	Will Trump praise Bryson DeChambeau in August?	Yes	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0x2ac591…
09-01 12:39:07	Putin meets with Iranian officials by August 31?	No	BUY	100	36¢	$36	0x3035e3…
09-01 12:29:30	Will Trump praise Bryson DeChambeau in August?	Yes	BUY	300	83¢	$250	0xcba5d8…
09-01 12:29:10	Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in Japan?	No	BUY	1,000	96¢	$955	0xefd84e…
09-01 12:18:58	Putin meets with Iranian officials by August 31?	No	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0x063887…
09-01 12:14:58	Putin meets with Iranian officials by August 31?	No	BUY	229	44¢	$100	0x8c18f9…
09-01 11:51:28	Putin meets with Iranian officials by August 31?	No	BUY	77	39¢	$30	0xb46964…
09-01 11:43:58	Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in Japan?	No	BUY	1,000	96¢	$961	0xacc073…
09-01 11:38:24	Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in Japan?	No	BUY	1,000	96¢	$962	0xf31dbb…
09-01 11:03:30	Putin meets with Iranian officials by August 31?	No	SELL	17	49¢	$8	0x5b4cb3…
09-01 11:02:28	Putin meets with Iranian officials by August 31?	No	BUY	100	46¢	$46	0x8c8262…
09-01 02:43:34	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xfa3730…
09-01 01:17:30	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x4db6b6…
08-31 19:49:54	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xb4fc79…
08-31 13:38:18	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,040	100¢	$3,037	0xf751ae…
08-31 13:38:13	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x399755…
08-31 13:38:09	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	121	100¢	$121	0xe117d5…
08-31 00:07:07	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	500	77¢	$384	0x4b1e73…
08-28 17:12:36	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get less than 40 million views on day 1?	Yes	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xfe9465…
08-28 15:50:13	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get less than 40 million views on day 1?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x8ad757…
08-28 15:11:15	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get less than 40 million views on day 1?	Yes	BUY	152	99¢	$150	0xa52eb4…
08-28 13:37:46	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get less than 40 million views on day 1?	Yes	BUY	120	99¢	$119	0x0430da…
08-28 13:30:42	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get less than 40 million views on day 1?	Yes	BUY	1,270	100¢	$1,269	0x2d3f62…
08-28 13:30:39	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get less than 40 million views on day 1?	Yes	BUY	2,229	100¢	$2,225	0x16b2ff…
08-27 23:50:31	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?	No	SELL	35,339	100¢	$35,303	0x5d0037…
08-24 23:23:18	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?	No	BUY	3,000	99¢	$2,973	0xd0d39a…
08-24 23:22:22	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?	No	BUY	217	99¢	$215	0xb2b467…
08-24 23:22:21	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?	No	BUY	312	99¢	$309	0xb0570c…
08-24 23:22:21	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?	No	BUY	312	99¢	$309	0x9a418e…
08-24 23:22:21	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?	No	BUY	259	99¢	$257	0x020bb6…
08-24 23:18:51	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?	No	BUY	312	99¢	$310	0xfcb1f7…
08-24 23:18:43	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?	No	BUY	289	99¢	$287	0xd440aa…
08-24 23:18:03	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?	No	BUY	4,494	100¢	$4,473	0xd75945…
08-24 23:17:46	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?	No	BUY	5,000	100¢	$4,980	0x3a06a3…
08-24 23:17:31	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,996	0xacacef…
08-24 23:17:24	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x05a7e2…
08-24 23:16:55	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?	No	BUY	5,100	100¢	$5,090	0xfa599f…
08-24 23:16:45	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x237264…
08-24 23:16:36	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?	No	BUY	5,000	100¢	$4,985	0xdb7e54…
08-24 23:16:33	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?	No	BUY	989	100¢	$985	0x6dc11e…
08-24 23:15:16	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?	No	BUY	8,000	99¢	$7,952	0xad7939…
08-21 20:43:19	Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x1a3d26…
08-21 20:29:19	Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?	Yes	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x949992…
08-21 20:15:37	Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x1a505d…
08-21 20:15:24	Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?	Yes	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0x6e20d9…
08-21 20:14:24	Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc36244…
08-21 20:13:19	Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?	Yes	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x4d1986…
08-21 20:13:07	Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x6641be…