Lavish-Subset — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$137

Unrealized P&L

-$250

Hit rate

52.9%

Resolved

7,451

Trades

39,113

lifetime

Volume

$242.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$131

1 position

First seen

2026-03-10

last 09-16 12:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 75 days

Categories

Crypto

80% 70% +$907

Other

19% 83% -$529

Politics

1% 0% -$232

Tech

0% 0% -$10

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 1544 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
will ethereum dip to 1250 by december 31 2026 from june 8	Yes		+1,866	$381	7¢	$131	-$250	08-12 13:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	11	$28.0K	18,097	18,097	+0	No	-$118	07-14 12:27
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	12	$7.6K	4,400	4,400	+0	Yes	-$258	07-29 12:24
google maps renames lake ontario to lake america by september 4 2026	4	$5.9K	4,250	4,250	+0	Yes	+$0	08-29 10:58
Will Marília Arraes win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?	2	$1.6K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	-$110	08-18 15:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 14:40 UTC	74	$1.5K	2,533	0	+2,533	Down	-$1,413	03-18 14:43
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 07:00 UTC	34	$1.2K	1,859	0	+1,859	Down	-$1,209	03-18 07:01
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1?	4	$1.1K	4,300	4,300	+0	No	-$10	08-30 18:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 20:20 UTC	88	$1.1K	1,488	1,205	+283	Up	-$109	03-17 20:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 14:15 UTC	27	$1.1K	1,752	0	+1,752	Up	+$646	03-18 14:17
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 20:45 UTC	67	$1.0K	2,165	0	+2,165	Up	+$1,141	03-17 20:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 20:55 UTC	54	$985	1,926	0	+1,926	Down	+$941	03-17 20:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 00:05 UTC	190	$977	2,006	0	+2,006	Up	+$1,029	03-18 00:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 10:45 UTC	26	$931	1,501	0	+1,501	Up	+$547	03-18 10:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 12:25 UTC	27	$928	1,374	0	+1,374	Up	+$446	03-18 12:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 08:25 UTC	41	$891	1,817	0	+1,817	Down	-$891	03-18 08:27
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 15:20 UTC	19	$836	1,370	0	+1,370	Up	+$534	03-18 15:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 15:30 UTC	26	$830	1,538	0	+1,538	Up	+$686	03-18 15:31
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 20:25 UTC	66	$808	831	627	+204	Up	-$211	03-17 20:27
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 05:00 UTC	65	$783	1,499	0	+1,499	Up	-$744	03-18 05:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 10:40 UTC	109	$676	3,328	0	+3,328	Down	-$655	03-18 10:43
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 08:10 UTC	37	$674	1,188	0	+1,188	Up	+$514	03-18 08:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 19:10 UTC	53	$665	1,585	0	+1,585	Down	-$580	03-18 19:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 15:45 UTC	64	$657	1,504	0	+1,504	Down	-$622	03-18 15:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 14:50 UTC	15	$653	2,050	0	+2,050	Down	-$645	03-18 14:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 08:35 UTC	20	$625	1,002	0	+1,002	Up	+$352	03-18 08:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 14:20 UTC	225	$614	1,072	0	+1,072	Down	-$33	03-24 14:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 08:55 UTC	50	$603	996	0	+996	Up	+$393	03-18 08:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 09:20 UTC	23	$596	978	0	+978	Down	-$523	03-18 09:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 12:30 UTC	8	$591	1,223	0	+1,223	Down	-$578	03-18 12:31
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 14:05 UTC	209	$573	958	0	+958	Up	-$182	03-24 14:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-16 12:57:37	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0xbc66d6…
09-11 05:58:55	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.25% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	37	4¢	$1	0x5aba09…
09-11 05:58:55	Will Styvenson Valentim win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?	Yes	SELL	25	57¢	$14	0x0df6f4…
09-11 05:50:49	Will Styvenson Valentim win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?	Yes	SELL	10	71¢	$7	0x802b23…
09-11 05:49:21	Will Styvenson Valentim win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?	Yes	BUY	35	72¢	$25	0x47fc5a…
09-11 05:16:42	Will Styvenson Valentim win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?	No	SELL	35	25¢	$9	0xdd36b8…
09-11 04:40:39	Will Styvenson Valentim win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?	No	BUY	35	41¢	$14	0x8812ca…
09-11 04:36:01	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.45% before 2027?	No	SELL	45	10¢	$4	0x3f1285…
09-11 04:17:57	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.25% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	33¢	$2	0x2cc990…
09-11 04:01:18	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.45% before 2027?	No	BUY	45	42¢	$19	0xa98477…
09-11 03:46:43	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.80% before 2027?	No	SELL	41	17¢	$7	0x93dc7b…
09-11 03:46:40	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.80% before 2027?	No	BUY	41	18¢	$7	0xc895e0…
09-11 03:18:24	Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 12, 2026?	Yes	SELL	44	39¢	$17	0x92a30f…
09-11 02:42:19	Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	44¢	$19	0x779737…
09-11 00:32:09	Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	Yes	SELL	20	38¢	$8	0x417af2…
09-11 00:04:01	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Jersey be between 3,000,000 and 3,200,000?	Yes	SELL	27	35¢	$9	0x985bc7…
09-10 23:56:03	Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x73e4a6…
09-10 23:27:57	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Jersey be between 3,000,000 and 3,200,000?	Yes	BUY	27	44¢	$12	0x6b22ea…
09-10 21:02:06	Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 12, 2026?	No	SELL	44	53¢	$24	0xd69d2d…
09-10 20:26:03	Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 12, 2026?	No	BUY	44	58¢	$26	0x61a575…
09-10 19:40:07	Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 12, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	42¢	$10	0x40daf4…
09-10 19:08:09	Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 12, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	44¢	$9	0xe3daa4…
09-10 19:05:09	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.78% in September?	No	SELL	70	34¢	$24	0x9776f6…
09-10 19:04:03	Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	45¢	$20	0x477c85…
09-10 18:50:45	Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	67¢	$13	0x3719f2…
09-10 18:45:37	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.39% in September?	No	SELL	26	30¢	$8	0x968cfc…
09-10 18:42:52	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.80% before 2027?	No	SELL	41	31¢	$13	0xde80e0…
09-10 18:40:15	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.40% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	17	2¢	$0	0x7d931d…
09-10 18:39:55	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.40% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	63	3¢	$2	0x586f88…
09-10 18:29:04	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.78% in September?	No	BUY	74	68¢	$50	0xcfcaff…
09-10 18:14:42	Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0xec3db6…
09-10 18:09:34	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.39% in September?	No	BUY	26	57¢	$15	0x575125…
09-10 18:06:48	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.80% before 2027?	No	BUY	41	40¢	$16	0xff7f35…
09-10 18:06:16	Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 12, 2026?	Yes	SELL	44	45¢	$20	0xd4fc08…
09-10 18:04:31	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.25% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	42	40¢	$17	0x8a3092…
09-10 18:04:22	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.30% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	3	48¢	$1	0xaf75c5…
09-10 18:04:21	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.30% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0x88c6e1…
09-10 18:03:52	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.40% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	80	66¢	$53	0x63a197…
09-10 17:33:09	Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	69¢	$14	0x029fde…
09-10 17:30:12	Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	51¢	$22	0xd14b2d…
09-10 16:54:52	Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x9678c1…
09-10 16:43:16	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.36% in September?	No	SELL	51	11¢	$6	0x0a9287…
09-10 16:07:12	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.36% in September?	No	BUY	51	32¢	$16	0x4659e4…
09-10 15:42:10	LAPTOP FDV above $350M one day after launch?	No	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0xaafb67…
09-10 15:42:07	LAPTOP FDV above $350M one day after launch?	No	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x33656d…
09-10 15:33:30	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	20	15¢	$3	0x29f926…
09-10 15:16:15	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.20% in September?	Yes	BUY	26	12¢	$3	0xe67d12…
09-10 14:57:27	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x11fa78…
09-10 14:01:54	LAPTOP FDV above $350M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	20	83¢	$17	0xe50b4b…
09-10 14:01:51	LAPTOP FDV above $350M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x0e9a45…
09-10 13:35:46	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0x456508…
09-10 13:34:40	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.94% in September?	No	SELL	25	34¢	$8	0x817cdc…
09-10 12:59:43	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x3b2ae6…
09-10 12:58:36	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.94% in September?	No	BUY	25	66¢	$16	0xd8930a…
09-10 12:40:31	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.94% in September?	No	SELL	25	70¢	$18	0x961742…
09-10 12:40:28	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.94% in September?	No	BUY	25	71¢	$18	0x69906f…
09-10 09:52:48	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	56¢	$11	0x55be2e…
09-10 09:45:25	Will Anthropic reset Claude usage limit by October 31?	No	SELL	20	37¢	$7	0x1c973b…
09-10 09:16:45	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	75¢	$0	0x6a1056…
09-10 09:16:43	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x66e3db…
09-10 09:09:21	will anthropic reset claude usage limit by october 31 2026	No	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0xb1e749…
09-10 08:15:09	will openai announce another millennium prize solution by december 31 2027	No	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0x206cf9…
09-10 07:38:34	will openai announce another millennium prize solution by december 31 2027	No	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x15f0ea…
09-10 07:29:45	will anthropic announce a millennium prize solution by december 31 2026	No	SELL	20	64¢	$13	0xa7e101…
09-10 07:06:57	will anthropic reset claude usage limit by october 31 2026	No	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0x8e1dca…
09-10 06:53:37	will anthropic announce a millennium prize solution by december 31 2026	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x5a1a90…
09-10 06:48:54	will openai announce another millennium prize solution by december 31 2027	Yes	SELL	20	61¢	$12	0x5ff196…
09-10 06:28:31	will anthropic reset claude usage limit by october 31 2026	No	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0xdb88a5…
09-10 06:22:13	will sb energy ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	20	66¢	$13	0x2cb886…
09-10 06:22:10	will sb energy ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0x3e306e…
09-10 06:15:00	will openai announce another millennium prize solution by december 31 2027	Yes	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0x6871bc…
09-10 06:11:54	will sb energy ipo by october 31 2026	No	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0xe479b7…
09-10 06:10:51	will sb energy ipo by october 31 2026	No	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0x0df68e…
09-10 05:14:48	Will LPV come 2nd place in the next Latvian parliamentary elections?	Yes	SELL	81	41¢	$33	0xce9ead…
09-10 04:38:36	laptop fdv above 350m one day after launch	No	SELL	20	15¢	$3	0x321722…
09-10 01:23:51	Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	Yes	SELL	46	57¢	$26	0x554151…
09-10 01:23:49	Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	Yes	BUY	46	57¢	$26	0xf716d1…
09-10 00:08:03	laptop fdv above 350m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	20	87¢	$17	0xfc0610…
09-10 00:07:51	laptop fdv above 350m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x73e612…
09-09 23:05:21	laptop fdv above 350m one day after launch	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xa82741…
09-09 22:33:37	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	50	24¢	$12	0xcba01f…
09-09 22:08:15	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	50	25¢	$12	0xa52491…
09-09 21:38:40	Will Gregory Nthatisi be the next mayor of Mangaung?	Yes	SELL	34	20¢	$7	0x2170d4…
09-09 21:33:00	Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	72	26¢	$19	0xdc61ca…
09-09 21:05:03	Will Gregory Nthatisi be the next mayor of Mangaung?	Yes	SELL	19	25¢	$5	0xd400b8…
09-09 21:02:36	Will Gregory Nthatisi be the next mayor of Mangaung?	Yes	BUY	53	26¢	$14	0xb77abc…
09-09 20:56:54	Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	72	31¢	$22	0x6b74ec…
09-09 20:55:16	Will Marilyn Crawford win the 2026 Ajax mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	20	67¢	$13	0xbb14d6…
09-09 20:54:09	laptop fdv above 350m one day after launch	No	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0xa5e16a…
09-09 20:54:06	laptop fdv above 350m one day after launch	No	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xcec1a1…
09-09 20:43:06	laptop fdv above 350m one day after launch	No	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0xd0cb53…
09-09 20:43:04	laptop fdv above 350m one day after launch	No	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0xfa0072…
09-09 20:24:18	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	50	24¢	$12	0xbc2a2e…
09-09 20:19:12	Will Marilyn Crawford win the 2026 Ajax mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0xbfa50e…
09-09 19:51:24	Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	72	70¢	$50	0x863876…
09-09 19:48:12	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	50	34¢	$17	0x0b9d86…
09-09 19:22:09	Will Marilyn Crawford win the 2026 Ajax mayoral election?	No	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0x6b2ee4…
09-09 19:20:46	Will Alexandre Curi win the most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?	Yes	SELL	33	24¢	$8	0xb917ce…
09-09 19:15:18	Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	72	75¢	$54	0xfb8bdc…
09-09 19:15:06	laptop fdv above 350m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	20	67¢	$13	0x30cdb2…