Dirty-Exaggeration — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$85

Unrealized P&L

+$56

Hit rate

64.0%

Resolved (90d)

145

Trades (90d)

259

10,107 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$2.49K

$28.6K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$652

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-12

last 10-30 09:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 137 days

Categories

Other

91% 60% -$412

Politics

7% 38% -$9

Tech

1% 44% -$6

Crypto

1% 60% -$8

Sports

0% 33% +$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

29 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+397	$270	74¢	$294	+$24	10-28 06:22
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+400	$256	72¢	$286	+$30	10-08 01:38
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+130	$70	56¢	$72	+$2	10-29 15:11
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+0	$0	44¢	$0	$0	10-29 13:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	6	$881	699	699	+0	open	—	10-06 20:32
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	4	$270	397	0	+397	open	—	10-28 06:22
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	1	$256	400	0	+400	open	—	10-08 01:38
highest temperature in madrid on april 17 2026 28c	7	$149	80	79	+0	No	-$1	04-17 11:04
will claude opus 4 6 thinking be the top ai model on april 17 2026 style control on	12	$147	78	78	+0	Yes	-$1	04-17 15:16
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	7	$144	160	160	+0	open	—	10-29 13:37
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 24?	29	$124	212	212	+0	Yes	-$56	08-24 07:05
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 2?	39	$110	14,004	0	+14,004	No	-$110	06-02 11:15
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	3	$102	70	70	+0	open	—	10-16 15:40
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	2	$94	80	80	+0	open	—	10-06 09:35
will kailera therapeuticss market cap be between 2pt0b and 2pt1b at market close on ipo day	9	$91	49	49	+0	No	$0	04-17 23:30
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	2	$85	100	100	+0	open	—	10-08 08:49
highest temperature in istanbul on april 17 2026 12c	6	$83	45	45	+0	Yes	-$1	04-17 15:16
will claude opus 4 6 thinking be the best ai model on april 17 2026	7	$77	41	40	+0	Yes	-$1	04-17 13:17
highest temperature in los angeles on april 22 2026 64 65f	13	$74	39	39	+0	No	$0	04-22 16:26
highest temperature in seattle on april 22 2026 58 59f	20	$74	38	38	+0	No	-$1	04-23 07:57
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	1	$70	130	0	+130	open	—	10-29 15:11
highest temperature in warsaw on april 18 2026 19c	6	$67	36	35	+0	No	+$0	04-18 14:41
highest temperature in san francisco on april 22 2026 60 61f	14	$65	36	35	+1	No	-$3	04-22 21:53
highest temperature in toronto on april 21 2026 11c	8	$65	35	34	+0	Yes	+$0	04-21 21:01
will shadowrocket be 1 paid app in the us apple app store on april 17	4	$65	34	34	+0	Yes	-$1	04-17 10:06
highest temperature in seattle on april 22 2026 57forbelow	11	$62	33	33	+0	Yes	$0	04-23 07:57
highest temperature in toronto on april 17 2026 19c	4	$61	32	32	+0	No	+$1	04-17 23:32
highest temperature in toronto on april 22 2026 19corhigher	11	$61	32	32	+0	No	$0	04-22 20:52
will hotschedules be 1 paid app in the us apple app store on april 17	3	$56	30	30	+0	No	-$1	04-17 06:52
highest temperature in los angeles on april 22 2026 66 67f	21	$55	29	29	+0	Yes	+$0	04-23 07:57
will anthropic be said during the next episode of the all in podcast 417	10	$48	25	25	+0	Yes	-$1	04-24 10:47
highest temperature in chongqing on april 24 2026 29c	8	$47	25	25	+0	No	$0	04-24 07:59
highest temperature in buenos aires on april 17 2026 23c	5	$47	25	25	+0	No	$0	04-17 15:15
highest temperature in sao paulo on april 21 2026 25c	5	$44	24	23	+0	No	+$1	04-21 17:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 09:17:07	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 30?	No	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x6cfcd7…
10-30 05:26:45	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 30?	No	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xf18d33…
10-30 03:47:19	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	5	13¢	$1	0x517435…
10-29 17:00:28	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x30168d…
10-29 15:11:02	Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	130	54¢	$70	0x431606…
10-29 13:37:43	Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	45¢	$6	0x2471b1…
10-29 13:37:43	Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	116	45¢	$52	0x1da5eb…
10-29 12:32:50	Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	45¢	$2	0x1fb189…
10-29 11:37:19	Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	45¢	$1	0x4390a4…
10-29 11:19:25	Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	45¢	$10	0x606b6b…
10-29 08:39:41	Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	45¢	$1	0x43c75b…
10-29 02:31:13	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on October 29?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0xe75f1c…
10-29 01:03:46	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x2668c4…
10-28 18:10:08	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	3	11¢	$0	0x7a673b…
10-28 17:46:07	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	1	11¢	$0	0x066aca…
10-28 16:29:32	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	1	11¢	$0	0x8024a3…
10-28 14:47:19	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0x56c5af…
10-28 06:22:17	Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0x3791f9…
10-28 06:05:17	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0x6020c3…
10-28 05:13:38	Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0xea0827…
10-28 04:31:58	Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	117	70¢	$82	0xab74fd…
10-28 03:03:15	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	2	33¢	$1	0xb21c80…
10-28 03:03:14	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x6df5ec…
10-27 05:08:12	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	3	20¢	$1	0x419573…
10-27 05:08:02	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	2	20¢	$0	0xfe558f…
10-26 03:35:11	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0xb93147…
10-26 00:44:11	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 26?	Yes	SELL	5	14¢	$1	0x890812…
10-26 00:07:33	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x11b8c4…
10-26 00:05:38	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 24?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x125134…
10-25 04:53:57	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 25?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x509c60…
10-25 03:25:51	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0xccb543…
10-24 04:52:51	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 24?	Yes	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0xc0f600…
10-24 04:51:15	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 24?	Yes	BUY	3	10¢	$0	0x78d3e1…
10-24 04:51:12	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 24?	Yes	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0x86d1a9…
10-23 07:50:00	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	12¢	$5	0x3cd24c…
10-23 05:02:39	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on October 23?	Yes	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0x58a710…
10-23 05:02:27	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on October 23?	Yes	SELL	0	21¢	$0	0x977b5c…
10-23 01:16:53	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0xb7469c…
10-22 08:12:50	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 22?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0xf92229…
10-22 04:52:33	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x4bdcd5…
10-21 04:03:57	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on October 21?	Yes	SELL	5	14¢	$1	0x7a629d…
10-21 02:16:48	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x2e0058…
10-19 07:42:05	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on October 19?	Yes	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0x8c2e55…
10-19 07:16:17	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on October 19?	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xcd7931…
10-19 07:01:02	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 19?	Yes	SELL	5	65¢	$3	0x0441f1…
10-19 06:59:53	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 19?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xb20320…
10-19 04:35:44	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 19?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x0a478a…
10-19 00:58:11	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 19?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x23a6b4…
10-16 15:40:46	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	70	74¢	$52	0x28a587…
10-12 02:45:24	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 12?	No	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xf6461a…
10-09 01:53:23	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x49a8fb…
10-09 01:25:42	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x5a70b3…
10-08 11:32:38	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	14¢	$6	0xa1597c…
10-08 11:00:24	Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	160	45¢	$72	0x2b029e…
10-08 08:49:50	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	43¢	$43	0xb1d6d9…
10-08 06:05:29	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 8?	Yes	SELL	10	30¢	$3	0x0a9256…
10-08 05:53:04	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x5c4e6c…
10-08 02:01:52	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x7035a7…
10-08 01:38:32	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	400	64¢	$256	0xfc7436…
10-07 06:25:33	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on October 7?	No	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x7ac756…
10-07 06:14:39	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on October 7?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xd63cf6…
10-06 20:32:27	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	699	65¢	$454	0x18a2c5…
10-06 09:38:01	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	42¢	$42	0x3d869d…
10-06 09:35:54	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	80	58¢	$46	0x2a1f36…
10-06 04:48:49	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on October 6?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x0d8608…
10-06 01:37:26	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 6?	Yes	BUY	166	0¢	$0	0xff9950…
10-05 07:53:38	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on October 5?	No	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x689f68…
10-05 06:32:35	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on October 5?	No	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0xf52de1…
10-05 06:27:26	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 5?	No	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0xd4f6bd…
10-05 05:03:41	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on October 5?	No	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xe70034…
10-05 03:48:13	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 5?	No	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x954ae7…
10-05 03:11:02	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 5?	Yes	SELL	15	0¢	$0	0x79ce73…
10-05 02:55:49	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 5?	Yes	SELL	5	9¢	$0	0x8e15aa…
10-05 02:42:35	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 5?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xa78c5b…
10-05 02:27:10	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on October 5?	No	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xe54982…
10-05 02:02:11	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 5?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xdd2f3d…
10-05 01:02:55	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 5?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xad3275…
10-05 00:40:40	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 5?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xe7b556…
10-04 05:21:01	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 4?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x42a2fe…
10-04 04:51:59	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 4?	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x15e58e…
10-04 03:58:41	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 4?	Yes	SELL	8	64¢	$5	0xd22347…
10-04 03:15:34	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 4?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xcc263c…
10-04 02:50:08	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 4?	Yes	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0x609763…
10-04 02:39:35	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 4?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xe80617…
10-04 02:33:05	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 4?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x3ea310…
10-04 02:32:37	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 4?	Yes	SELL	61	1¢	$1	0x301dc0…
10-04 02:25:17	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 4?	Yes	BUY	6	3¢	$0	0xf298c5…
10-04 02:24:41	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 4?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0xfadb27…
10-04 02:24:37	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 4?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x6835ac…
10-04 02:19:05	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 4?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x4dbd0a…
10-03 01:28:17	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on October 3?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xbd6299…
10-03 01:01:54	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	140	61¢	$85	0xdbe3be…
10-03 00:46:35	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 3?	Yes	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0xa7198c…
10-03 00:21:45	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	349	61¢	$213	0x99ca7a…
10-03 00:17:24	Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	60¢	$48	0x77e7e9…
10-03 00:16:09	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	60¢	$48	0x3329e0…
10-02 22:57:21	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	72¢	$43	0x459e9a…
10-02 16:29:03	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	61¢	$61	0xa3ecff…
10-02 05:44:27	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on October 2?	Yes	SELL	10	35¢	$4	0xad6e12…
10-02 04:48:50	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on October 2?	Yes	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0xfd1bc6…