Tricky-Overload — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$13.0K

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

72.3%

Resolved

57,992

Trades

394,022

lifetime

Volume

$2.28M

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$102

10 positions

First seen

2026-02-04

last 10-31 00:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 259 days

Categories

Other

64% 64% +$6,413

Crypto

23% 50% +$5,439

Politics

10% 80% +$738

Sports

3% 91% +$555

Tech

0% 63% -$107

Pop-Culture

0% 57% -$28

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 5385 trades/day

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bogdan Guskov be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	No		+30	$22	99¢	$30	+$7	05-27 18:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	—	+20	$13	99¢	$20	+$7	10-31 01:53
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 3.0% and 4.0%?	No		-20	-$19	99¢	$-19	$0	04-29 12:49
Will 9-10 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	No		-15	-$15	99¢	$-15	$0	05-28 15:20
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?	No		+15	$10	98¢	$15	+$5	05-26 20:15
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	No		-7	-$5	38¢	$-3	+$2	05-17 10:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	—	+30	$18	1¢	$0	-$18	10-31 01:47
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes		-148	$0	0¢	$-0	+$0	08-17 06:16
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No		+3	$1	3¢	$0	-$1	04-29 19:20
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No		+0	$0	95¢	$0	+$0	05-04 12:29

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets february 13 february 20 360 379	358	$4.1K	4,111	0	+4,111	No	+$45	02-20 15:47
elon musk of tweets february 13 february 20 340 359	364	$4.1K	4,193	0	+4,193	No	+$140	02-20 16:24
elon musk of tweets february 13 february 20 320 339	361	$3.4K	4,130	0	+4,130	No	+$765	02-20 16:24
elon musk of tweets february 13 february 20 380 399	290	$3.2K	3,227	0	+3,227	No	+$15	02-20 14:28
elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 300 319	352	$2.4K	2,438	0	+2,438	No	+$50	02-17 15:23
elon musk of tweets february 13 february 20 300 319	361	$2.4K	4,137	0	+4,137	Yes	-$2,384	02-20 16:24
elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 280 299	358	$2.4K	2,496	0	+2,496	No	+$144	02-17 16:05
will the us next strike iran on march 3 2026 et	245	$2.2K	2,241	28	+2,213	No	+$39	02-28 08:35
will the us next strike iran on march 25 2026 et	239	$2.2K	2,192	6	+2,185	No	+$18	02-28 06:50
will the us next strike iran on march 2 2026 et	243	$2.2K	2,229	20	+2,210	No	+$50	02-28 08:35
will the us next strike iran on march 15 2026 et	239	$2.2K	2,196	0	+2,196	No	+$22	02-28 06:56
will the us next strike iran on march 21 2026 et	241	$2.2K	2,204	0	+2,204	No	+$36	02-28 07:14
will the us next strike iran on march 12 2026 et	238	$2.2K	2,191	0	+2,191	No	+$25	02-28 06:56
will the us next strike iran on march 24 2026 et	239	$2.2K	2,181	0	+2,181	No	+$17	02-28 06:50
will the us next strike iran on march 13 2026 et	241	$2.2K	2,206	0	+2,206	No	+$45	02-28 07:14
will the us next strike iran on march 27 2026 et	239	$2.2K	2,184	12	+2,172	No	+$24	02-28 06:54
will the us next strike iran on march 5 2026 et	239	$2.2K	2,185	39	+2,146	No	+$33	02-28 08:35
will the us next strike iran on march 19 2026 et	238	$2.1K	2,168	39	+2,129	No	+$19	02-28 06:56
will the us next strike iran on march 17 2026 et	237	$2.1K	2,166	19	+2,147	No	+$17	02-28 06:50
will the us next strike iran on march 9 2026 et	238	$2.1K	2,168	39	+2,129	No	+$21	02-28 06:56
will the us next strike iran on march 29 2026 et	236	$2.1K	2,162	19	+2,143	No	+$16	02-28 06:39
will the us next strike iran on march 1 2026 et	241	$2.1K	2,210	54	+2,156	No	+$68	02-28 08:35
will the us next strike iran on march 20 2026 et	241	$2.1K	2,186	0	+2,186	No	+$46	02-28 07:14
will the us next strike iran on march 4 2026 et	239	$2.1K	2,173	39	+2,134	No	+$35	02-28 07:14
will the us next strike iran on march 28 2026 et	239	$2.1K	2,158	45	+2,114	No	+$21	02-28 06:56
will the us next strike iran on march 10 2026 et	237	$2.1K	2,158	39	+2,119	No	+$21	02-28 06:54
will the us next strike iran on march 7 2026 et	240	$2.1K	2,197	0	+2,197	No	+$60	02-28 06:56
will the us next strike iran on march 31 2026 et	236	$2.1K	2,153	44	+2,109	No	+$18	02-28 06:54
will the us next strike iran on march 14 2026 et	238	$2.1K	2,168	39	+2,129	No	+$36	02-28 06:56
will the us next strike iran on march 6 2026 et	243	$2.1K	2,192	20	+2,172	No	+$60	02-28 07:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 01:53:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0xec5fa0…
10-31 01:51:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x7c5c27…
10-31 01:47:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0x00eecf…
10-31 01:46:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xde74ff…
10-31 01:46:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0xd1db19…
10-31 01:46:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	0	64¢	$0	0x2ad4d7…
10-31 01:46:16	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0x79d968…
10-31 01:45:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xa26302…
10-31 01:39:07	BNB Up or Down - October 30, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0x05973d…
10-31 01:38:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x719911…
10-31 01:37:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x1c7fea…
10-31 01:37:06	XRP Up or Down - October 30, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0x1410d2…
10-31 01:37:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x1b94ce…
10-31 01:36:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0x96b1b6…
10-31 01:34:43	XRP Up or Down - October 30, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0xe573a5…
10-31 01:33:42	XRP Up or Down - October 30, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x05a0b9…
10-31 01:27:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0x838770…
10-31 01:25:22	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x7189d2…
10-31 01:25:10	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	9	13¢	$1	0xf2ea29…
10-31 01:25:03	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0x3010fb…
10-31 01:24:43	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0x375f3c…
10-31 01:23:25	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xdce764…
10-31 01:14:51	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0xd0c44e…
10-31 01:14:25	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0xb32d0a…
10-31 01:14:24	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	3¢	$0	0xdf64df…
10-31 01:14:24	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	3¢	$0	0x2494f8…
10-31 01:13:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xda509a…
10-31 01:13:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0xa579f0…
10-31 01:12:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	8	30¢	$2	0x4b8336…
10-31 01:12:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	30¢	$1	0x0302eb…
10-31 01:12:25	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0x3f4cd9…
10-31 01:12:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x26bb28…
10-31 01:11:31	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x152884…
10-31 01:11:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x94739d…
10-31 01:10:42	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x30b719…
10-31 01:10:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0x468b39…
10-31 01:06:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0xcd5e9e…
10-31 01:04:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x120a4a…
10-31 01:04:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xe71811…
10-31 01:03:48	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0x447aff…
10-31 01:02:55	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0xefe116…
10-31 01:02:07	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0xd5f9db…
10-31 01:02:07	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x535f15…
10-31 00:57:16	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x7c68b6…
10-31 00:57:01	XRP Up or Down - October 30, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0x24fabf…
10-31 00:56:19	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x796c2b…
10-31 00:49:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	78¢	$1	0xb40bb9…
10-31 00:49:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	8	78¢	$7	0xa18d8b…
10-31 00:49:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0x453536…
10-31 00:48:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0xd582b6…
10-31 00:48:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0xce6bfa…
10-31 00:48:06	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0x5600a3…
10-31 00:48:00	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xb765ba…
10-31 00:47:58	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	84¢	$3	0xaec84d…
10-31 00:41:39	XRP Up or Down - October 30, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0xb4f650…
10-31 00:40:33	XRP Up or Down - October 30, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xd711ab…
10-31 00:40:31	XRP Up or Down - October 30, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x128eca…
10-31 00:39:09	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0xfe9655…
10-31 00:38:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0xfe1d9f…
10-31 00:36:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0xf6aad7…
10-31 00:35:06	XRP Up or Down - October 30, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	33¢	$3	0xb04434…
10-31 00:34:13	BNB Up or Down - October 30, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x10f883…
10-31 00:31:06	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0xc773bd…
10-31 00:29:03	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xe49434…
10-31 00:29:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0x5ded40…
10-31 00:28:33	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	7¢	$1	0x2f4ce3…
10-31 00:28:12	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	8	8¢	$1	0x26e800…
10-31 00:27:34	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	15¢	$0	0x992d6c…
10-31 00:27:10	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x9e339d…
10-31 00:27:10	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x12c176…
10-31 00:25:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0xc79db8…
10-31 00:23:46	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xe05496…
10-31 00:23:45	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	8	74¢	$6	0xa39df4…
10-31 00:23:07	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	61¢	$1	0x8606df…
10-31 00:22:52	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0xe0ff1d…
10-31 00:21:48	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0xa47cf3…
10-31 00:21:07	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xb9337e…
10-31 00:18:42	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x25239e…
10-31 00:18:06	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0xb79f87…
10-31 00:18:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0xb76c89…
10-31 00:17:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0x55cf5a…
10-31 00:16:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0x99e015…
10-31 00:16:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	65¢	$6	0x1eb5d3…
10-31 00:14:10	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x34e0df…
10-31 00:13:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0xdaa2f1…
10-31 00:13:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0xa4f115…
10-31 00:12:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x651e85…
10-31 00:11:55	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0x2b91a7…
10-31 00:09:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x0451dc…
10-31 00:03:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0xbbb612…
10-31 00:01:06	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	8	55¢	$4	0x4e7e4a…
10-31 00:00:34	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xb01b43…
10-31 00:00:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xe70b0f…
10-31 00:00:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	52¢	$1	0x458bc1…
10-31 00:00:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	52¢	$2	0x145fb6…
10-31 00:00:07	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	34¢	$2	0x60ac03…
10-30 23:59:21	XRP Up or Down - October 30, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	9	90¢	$8	0xe2824a…
10-30 23:59:06	XRP Up or Down - October 30, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	62¢	$0	0x02779e…
10-30 23:57:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0xe67c37…
10-30 23:57:06	XRP Up or Down - October 30, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	65¢	$6	0x1271a2…