Tricky-Overload — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$12.9K

Unrealized P&L

+$20

Hit rate

72.3%

Resolved

57,937

Trades

393,880

lifetime

Volume

$2.28M

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$119

11 positions

First seen

2026-02-04

last 10-30 22:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 258 days

Categories

Other

64% 64% +$6,377

Crypto

23% 50% +$5,411

Politics

10% 80% +$738

Sports

3% 91% +$555

Tech

0% 63% -$107

Pop-Culture

0% 57% -$28

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 5385 trades/day

Open positions (11) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bogdan Guskov be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	No		+30	$22	99¢	$30	+$7	05-27 18:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Up	—	+30	$21	92¢	$27	+$6	10-30 22:33
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 3.0% and 4.0%?	No		-20	-$19	99¢	$-19	$0	04-29 12:49
Will 9-10 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	No		-15	-$15	99¢	$-15	$0	05-28 15:20
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?	No		+15	$10	98¢	$15	+$5	05-26 20:15
BNB Up or Down - October 30, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Up	—	+10	$5	90¢	$9	+$4	10-30 22:30
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	No		-7	-$5	42¢	$-3	+$2	05-17 10:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	—	+10	$4	8¢	$1	-$3	10-30 22:30
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes		-148	$0	0¢	$-0	+$0	08-17 06:16
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No		+3	$1	3¢	$0	-$1	04-29 19:20
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No		+0	$0	94¢	$0	+$0	05-04 12:29

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets february 13 february 20 360 379	358	$4.1K	4,111	0	+4,111	No	+$45	02-20 15:47
elon musk of tweets february 13 february 20 340 359	364	$4.1K	4,193	0	+4,193	No	+$140	02-20 16:24
elon musk of tweets february 13 february 20 320 339	361	$3.4K	4,130	0	+4,130	No	+$765	02-20 16:24
elon musk of tweets february 13 february 20 380 399	290	$3.2K	3,227	0	+3,227	No	+$15	02-20 14:28
elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 300 319	352	$2.4K	2,438	0	+2,438	No	+$50	02-17 15:23
elon musk of tweets february 13 february 20 300 319	361	$2.4K	4,137	0	+4,137	Yes	-$2,384	02-20 16:24
elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 280 299	358	$2.4K	2,496	0	+2,496	No	+$144	02-17 16:05
will the us next strike iran on march 3 2026 et	245	$2.2K	2,241	28	+2,213	No	+$39	02-28 08:35
will the us next strike iran on march 25 2026 et	239	$2.2K	2,192	6	+2,185	No	+$18	02-28 06:50
will the us next strike iran on march 2 2026 et	243	$2.2K	2,229	20	+2,210	No	+$50	02-28 08:35
will the us next strike iran on march 15 2026 et	239	$2.2K	2,196	0	+2,196	No	+$22	02-28 06:56
will the us next strike iran on march 21 2026 et	241	$2.2K	2,204	0	+2,204	No	+$36	02-28 07:14
will the us next strike iran on march 12 2026 et	238	$2.2K	2,191	0	+2,191	No	+$25	02-28 06:56
will the us next strike iran on march 24 2026 et	239	$2.2K	2,181	0	+2,181	No	+$17	02-28 06:50
will the us next strike iran on march 13 2026 et	241	$2.2K	2,206	0	+2,206	No	+$45	02-28 07:14
will the us next strike iran on march 27 2026 et	239	$2.2K	2,184	12	+2,172	No	+$24	02-28 06:54
will the us next strike iran on march 5 2026 et	239	$2.2K	2,185	39	+2,146	No	+$33	02-28 08:35
will the us next strike iran on march 19 2026 et	238	$2.1K	2,168	39	+2,129	No	+$19	02-28 06:56
will the us next strike iran on march 17 2026 et	237	$2.1K	2,166	19	+2,147	No	+$17	02-28 06:50
will the us next strike iran on march 9 2026 et	238	$2.1K	2,168	39	+2,129	No	+$21	02-28 06:56
will the us next strike iran on march 29 2026 et	236	$2.1K	2,162	19	+2,143	No	+$16	02-28 06:39
will the us next strike iran on march 1 2026 et	241	$2.1K	2,210	54	+2,156	No	+$68	02-28 08:35
will the us next strike iran on march 20 2026 et	241	$2.1K	2,186	0	+2,186	No	+$46	02-28 07:14
will the us next strike iran on march 4 2026 et	239	$2.1K	2,173	39	+2,134	No	+$35	02-28 07:14
will the us next strike iran on march 28 2026 et	239	$2.1K	2,158	45	+2,114	No	+$21	02-28 06:56
will the us next strike iran on march 10 2026 et	237	$2.1K	2,158	39	+2,119	No	+$21	02-28 06:54
will the us next strike iran on march 7 2026 et	240	$2.1K	2,197	0	+2,197	No	+$60	02-28 06:56
will the us next strike iran on march 31 2026 et	236	$2.1K	2,153	44	+2,109	No	+$18	02-28 06:54
will the us next strike iran on march 14 2026 et	238	$2.1K	2,168	39	+2,129	No	+$36	02-28 06:56
will the us next strike iran on march 6 2026 et	243	$2.1K	2,192	20	+2,172	No	+$60	02-28 07:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 22:33:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0xdfcfa2…
10-30 22:33:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0xf978b4…
10-30 22:32:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0xe102db…
10-30 22:32:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x26e521…
10-30 22:30:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xaeef36…
10-30 22:30:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0x9c4e33…
10-30 22:30:34	BNB Up or Down - October 30, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x60baaf…
10-30 22:28:57	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x094b48…
10-30 22:26:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0xc8619b…
10-30 22:26:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0x454ae8…
10-30 22:25:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0xb8a86c…
10-30 22:24:10	BNB Up or Down - October 30, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	0	60¢	$0	0x4daa53…
10-30 22:19:31	BNB Up or Down - October 30, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	17¢	$1	0xb36895…
10-30 22:17:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0xeed197…
10-30 22:03:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x2b58f7…
10-30 22:03:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0xc4a957…
10-30 22:02:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0x5c75ea…
10-30 22:02:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0xacff71…
10-30 22:01:58	BNB Up or Down - October 30, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0x3c1d50…
10-30 22:00:09	BNB Up or Down - October 30, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x0966aa…
10-30 21:57:37	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0xc6ec39…
10-30 21:57:30	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0xb592da…
10-30 21:50:39	XRP Up or Down - October 30, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0xdbe1e1…
10-30 21:47:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0x908b5e…
10-30 21:44:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0xc4a351…
10-30 21:43:57	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	9	12¢	$1	0x9d0117…
10-30 21:43:57	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0x20cebe…
10-30 21:42:15	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0x5350b0…
10-30 21:40:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0x4bea3d…
10-30 21:39:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0xbbac97…
10-30 21:19:52	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x864886…
10-30 21:19:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x087d5b…
10-30 21:18:13	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0x1897b8…
10-30 21:13:49	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0xe4197a…
10-30 21:13:22	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0x88d288…
10-30 21:06:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x89fe61…
10-30 21:06:06	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0x9aed26…
10-30 21:05:40	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	8	66¢	$6	0xe37786…
10-30 21:04:37	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	9	77¢	$7	0x760648…
10-30 21:04:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x9c07d8…
10-30 21:03:51	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0x71ca18…
10-30 21:03:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	9	66¢	$6	0x4493d3…
10-30 21:03:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	63¢	$1	0x571665…
10-30 21:02:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0x2c0958…
10-30 21:01:40	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0x682261…
10-30 21:00:07	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	51¢	$0	0x549a49…
10-30 21:00:06	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	9	51¢	$5	0x9461ff…
10-30 20:50:12	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	9	44¢	$4	0x4b0f48…
10-30 20:49:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x67fc49…
10-30 20:49:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	7	77¢	$5	0xcbaf9b…
10-30 20:48:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x4b0e1b…
10-30 20:48:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0xa79781…
10-30 20:47:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0x5cb5c8…
10-30 20:44:24	XRP Up or Down - October 30, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	9	2¢	$0	0xfcefcb…
10-30 20:44:24	XRP Up or Down - October 30, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0xbaaac1…
10-30 20:37:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0xd79665…
10-30 20:36:03	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0x28fb6a…
10-30 20:34:00	BNB Up or Down - October 30, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x555108…
10-30 20:31:30	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0xb71926…
10-30 20:30:07	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0xb69a5d…
10-30 20:27:37	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0x6d9b2a…
10-30 20:27:21	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x2bb46d…
10-30 20:25:36	XRP Up or Down - October 30, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x9d3a8c…
10-30 20:24:39	XRP Up or Down - October 30, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0xa1bd4a…
10-30 20:23:51	XRP Up or Down - October 30, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x6ed1c7…
10-30 20:23:04	XRP Up or Down - October 30, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	33¢	$1	0xc6b7ce…
10-30 20:23:03	XRP Up or Down - October 30, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	8	33¢	$3	0xbaf73d…
10-30 20:20:55	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0x2d6542…
10-30 20:20:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x22cb21…
10-30 20:18:40	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0xee6616…
10-30 20:16:06	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x40d350…
10-30 20:15:07	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	9	49¢	$5	0x467139…
10-30 20:15:07	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	49¢	$0	0x45ed47…
10-30 20:13:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x0666f1…
10-30 20:12:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0xb13179…
10-30 20:12:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0xb08fdd…
10-30 20:12:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0x293f3b…
10-30 20:10:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	71¢	$4	0x009233…
10-30 20:03:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	8	85¢	$7	0x9851f5…
10-30 20:03:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x35c83d…
10-30 20:02:33	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x01a04a…
10-30 20:02:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0xaffa7f…
10-30 20:02:01	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0xd24532…
10-30 19:50:22	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0xcdccdd…
10-30 19:49:48	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x9dbc4d…
10-30 19:49:10	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0xe5e22a…
10-30 19:49:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x0d9297…
10-30 19:48:57	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0xb4f0e5…
10-30 19:48:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0x26ccf8…
10-30 19:48:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0x0f4f41…
10-30 19:46:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0x0f69d7…
10-30 19:41:51	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x51d590…
10-30 19:35:15	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xa29e92…
10-30 19:34:46	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xdeb63e…
10-30 19:34:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xef1d28…
10-30 19:34:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xe7d655…
10-30 19:34:06	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x31873c…
10-30 19:33:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0x22a66f…
10-30 19:32:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0x349378…
10-30 19:31:31	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	65¢	$6	0x0a44f3…