Broken-Tub — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$22

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

54.6%

Resolved

Trades

203

lifetime

Volume

$217

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-05-20

last 07-08 04:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 13 days

Categories

Other

97% 8% -$19

Politics

2% 0% $0

Tech

1% 0% -$3

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-08).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (16) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Discord have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	—	+1,244	$1	0¢	$2	+$1	06-28 05:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 2?	4	$118	96	96	+0	No	+$0	06-02 15:31
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 2?	2	$80	50	50	+0	Yes	-$9	06-02 12:11
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	2	$4	50	50	+0	No	$0	06-02 10:10
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on June 2?	3	$2	100	100	+0	Yes	$0	06-02 11:25
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	12	$1	1,319	0	+1,319	No	-$1	07-02 13:15
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 28, 2026?	22	$1	1,271	0	+1,271	No	-$1	07-08 04:01
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 25, 2026?	32	$1	1,251	0	+1,251	No	-$1	07-08 04:00
Will Discord have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	1	$1	1,244	0	+1,244	open	—	06-28 05:10
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on July 6?	15	$1	1,211	0	+1,211	No	-$1	07-05 15:05
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 79°F or below on July 4?	1	$1	1,165	0	+1,165	No	-$1	07-04 08:28
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on July 7?	2	$1	1,142	0	+1,142	No	-$1	07-06 12:35
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 27?	1	$1	1,133	0	+1,133	No	-$1	06-27 06:45
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June?	2	$1	1,120	0	+1,120	No	-$1	06-26 08:12
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C or below on July 1?	27	$1	1,062	0	+1,062	No	-$1	06-30 19:23
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 29?	12	$1	1,028	0	+1,028	No	-$1	06-29 12:23
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on July 2?	62	$1	1,008	0	+1,008	No	-$1	07-01 14:41
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 55°F or below on May 21?	3	$0	240	0	+240	No	$0	05-20 11:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-08 04:01:14	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	104	0¢	$0	0xb0883e…
07-08 04:01:07	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xa41cb7…
07-08 04:01:07	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x35e6a8…
07-08 04:00:56	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x0bd2b1…
07-08 04:00:52	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	49	0¢	$0	0x65a3d3…
07-08 04:00:41	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	0¢	$0	0xeb4c7e…
07-08 04:00:41	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	0¢	$0	0xdeb6db…
07-08 04:00:41	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0xb03ea8…
07-08 04:00:41	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	0¢	$0	0x7b1c55…
07-08 04:00:41	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x2fec09…
07-08 04:00:40	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	0¢	$0	0x8a13ea…
07-08 04:00:40	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	0¢	$0	0x7532ce…
07-08 04:00:40	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	246	0¢	$0	0x0cf167…
07-08 03:14:40	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0xeb218a…
07-08 03:14:40	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0xde16a3…
07-08 03:14:40	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x78cd89…
07-08 03:14:40	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	0¢	$0	0x028ec6…
07-07 20:01:02	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	0¢	$0	0x327a45…
07-07 18:43:38	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x95dc35…
07-07 12:00:35	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0xd44ed4…
07-07 11:59:14	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xfaeb43…
07-07 10:59:07	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x960e97…
07-06 22:51:55	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	75	0¢	$0	0xb06481…
07-06 21:54:37	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0xfa7a37…
07-06 17:01:44	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	0¢	$0	0xfc35a4…
07-06 17:01:44	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x4f9b33…
07-06 17:01:31	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	0¢	$0	0x9fd215…
07-06 13:36:07	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	0¢	$0	0xbb55de…
07-06 12:35:26	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on July 7?	Yes	BUY	1,100	0¢	$1	0x74de04…
07-06 12:01:29	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on July 7?	Yes	BUY	42	0¢	$0	0xcf630b…
07-05 19:18:25	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x9aa914…
07-05 16:14:01	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x4d5bda…
07-05 15:05:43	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on July 6?	Yes	BUY	997	0¢	$1	0xd4acad…
07-05 15:05:29	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on July 6?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x5b68d7…
07-05 15:05:08	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on July 6?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xfcc353…
07-05 15:03:20	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on July 6?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x18933b…
07-05 15:01:32	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on July 6?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x5217c9…
07-05 15:01:31	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on July 6?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0xadec88…
07-05 15:01:31	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on July 6?	Yes	BUY	27	0¢	$0	0x381864…
07-05 14:53:07	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	0¢	$0	0xa1e806…
07-05 14:53:07	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x86b4ea…
07-05 14:32:20	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on July 6?	Yes	BUY	60	0¢	$0	0x5d407e…
07-05 14:32:20	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on July 6?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x1be764…
07-05 14:32:11	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on July 6?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x3aa8a9…
07-05 14:12:34	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x4378dd…
07-05 14:12:34	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x0a1d45…
07-05 14:08:13	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on July 6?	Yes	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0xdc8f7a…
07-05 13:31:07	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on July 6?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x13c739…
07-05 13:18:14	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on July 6?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x2546a5…
07-05 12:49:46	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on July 6?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x96d37e…
07-05 12:48:53	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on July 6?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x0efedd…
07-05 00:07:40	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xe43078…
07-05 00:07:40	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xc9aebb…
07-04 08:28:34	Will the highest temperature in Miami be 79°F or below on July 4?	Yes	BUY	1,165	0¢	$1	0xb3b94f…
07-03 22:28:26	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0x49878c…
07-03 21:16:43	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	0¢	$0	0x94101e…
07-03 15:25:14	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x5745b2…
07-03 15:25:14	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x2d31b2…
07-03 15:21:02	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x73ed2d…
07-03 15:21:02	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x07c8bf…
07-03 14:48:53	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xac2a6c…
07-03 14:48:53	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x992de2…
07-03 14:00:11	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x94ada3…
07-03 14:00:11	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	271	0¢	$0	0x6d1f0b…
07-03 10:56:23	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x60be27…
07-03 09:56:47	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x09a142…
07-03 09:48:31	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0xb40f1f…
07-03 09:40:40	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x4d20a2…
07-03 07:31:35	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0x2adb24…
07-02 13:15:01	Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	411	0¢	$0	0x54c2fc…
07-02 13:07:56	Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0xd1862a…
07-02 13:07:35	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	0¢	$0	0x0a9c43…
07-02 12:40:22	Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	55	0¢	$0	0xf52f90…
07-02 12:40:22	Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	80	0¢	$0	0xd9e2cc…
07-02 12:40:22	Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	75	0¢	$0	0x0d325f…
07-02 11:52:28	Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	33	0¢	$0	0x3c6e80…
07-02 11:37:22	Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	80	0¢	$0	0x50d521…
07-02 11:32:11	Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	88	0¢	$0	0xe00ddf…
07-02 11:32:08	Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xf943d0…
07-02 11:32:08	Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	95	0¢	$0	0x9cacdf…
07-02 11:15:31	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x59d9fe…
07-02 11:15:26	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	251	0¢	$0	0x0bf4f8…
07-02 11:12:35	Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	70	0¢	$0	0x9b8151…
07-02 11:08:14	Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	319	0¢	$0	0x84b193…
07-01 14:41:16	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on July 2?	Yes	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0x7ac776…
07-01 14:41:08	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on July 2?	Yes	BUY	17	0¢	$0	0xe85e94…
07-01 14:40:47	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on July 2?	Yes	BUY	16	0¢	$0	0xb49a20…
07-01 14:39:35	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on July 2?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x7f36c6…
07-01 14:39:02	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on July 2?	Yes	BUY	16	0¢	$0	0xe9814b…
07-01 14:38:34	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on July 2?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xf73a98…
07-01 14:38:07	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on July 2?	Yes	BUY	18	0¢	$0	0xfe05f5…
07-01 14:37:20	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on July 2?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xe4a685…
07-01 14:36:49	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on July 2?	Yes	BUY	16	0¢	$0	0x5abdaf…
07-01 14:36:19	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on July 2?	Yes	BUY	23	0¢	$0	0xe1d509…
07-01 14:35:55	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on July 2?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xcc9fd4…
07-01 14:35:07	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on July 2?	Yes	BUY	22	0¢	$0	0xe79c2c…
07-01 14:34:37	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on July 2?	Yes	BUY	19	0¢	$0	0x37df59…
07-01 14:33:52	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on July 2?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xeac683…
07-01 14:31:14	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on July 2?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x0eeae9…
07-01 14:31:05	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on July 2?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x973c4d…