Salty-Confidence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$191

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

93.8%

Resolved

453

Trades

1,092

lifetime

Volume

$31.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$29

Open exposure

$12

1 position

First seen

2026-03-28

last 08-13 02:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 58 days

Categories

Other

98% 80% -$191

Politics

1% 50% +$1

Sports

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes		+15	$9	78¢	$12	+$3	08-13 02:22

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
highest temperature in wuhan on april 20 2026 23c	2	$518	261	260	+0	Yes	+$2	04-20 09:01
highest temperature in jakarta on april 16 2026 35c	11	$512	257	257	+0	No	+$2	04-16 11:02
highest temperature in nyc on april 18 2026 64 65f	18	$493	251	250	+0	No	+$7	04-18 22:03
highest temperature in seattle on april 16 2026 58 59f	3	$487	245	245	+0	No	+$2	04-17 01:21
highest temperature in ankara on april 16 2026 21c	2	$475	239	239	+0	Yes	+$2	04-16 21:17
highest temperature in shanghai on april 17 2026 21c	3	$474	238	238	+0	No	+$2	04-17 08:45
highest temperature in moscow on april 16 2026 13c	2	$469	237	237	+0	No	+$4	04-16 20:33
highest temperature in moscow on april 19 2026 6c	23	$457	230	230	+0	No	+$2	04-19 17:30
highest temperature in miami on april 22 2026 82 83f	7	$451	227	227	+0	No	+$1	04-22 22:02
highest temperature in paris on april 17 2026 23c	7	$441	223	223	+0	No	+$4	04-17 21:34
highest temperature in moscow on april 15 2026 14c	2	$429	216	216	+0	No	+$2	04-15 16:10
highest temperature in madrid on april 15 2026 24c	5	$429	216	216	+0	Yes	+$3	04-15 19:37
highest temperature in dallas on april 20 2026 74 75f	2	$411	207	206	+0	No	+$2	04-21 01:16
highest temperature in seattle on april 21 2026 58 59f	5	$401	206	205	+1	Yes	+$10	04-22 03:58
highest temperature in amsterdam on april 21 2026 16c	5	$394	199	199	+0	No	+$3	04-21 18:25
highest temperature in istanbul on april 13 2026 12c	3	$390	197	197	+0	Yes	+$2	04-13 17:42
highest temperature in hong kong on april 14 2026 29c	2	$384	192	192	+0	Yes	+$0	04-14 15:41
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on April 28?	5	$370	186	186	+0	No	+$1	04-28 22:51
highest temperature in beijing on april 15 2026 26c	24	$368	185	184	+0	No	+$1	04-15 09:16
highest temperature in helsinki on april 20 2026 14c	2	$362	182	182	+0	No	+$2	04-20 18:37
highest temperature in chongqing on april 12 2026 26c	8	$359	181	181	+0	No	+$2	04-12 08:00
highest temperature in busan on april 14 2026 20c	25	$355	178	178	+0	No	+$1	04-14 08:21
highest temperature in los angeles on april 11 2026 72 73f	10	$355	179	178	+0	No	+$2	04-11 22:18
highest temperature in seattle on april 22 2026 58 59f	2	$335	168	168	+0	No	+$2	04-23 01:38
highest temperature in wuhan on april 18 2026 29c	10	$326	164	164	+0	Yes	+$3	04-18 11:16
highest temperature in guangzhou on april 19 2026 34c	2	$324	164	164	+0	No	+$3	04-19 09:47
highest temperature in paris on april 22 2026 21corhigher	5	$315	158	158	+0	No	+$1	04-22 18:03
highest temperature in atlanta on april 20 2026 72 73f	5	$314	158	158	+0	No	+$0	04-20 19:52
highest temperature in sao paulo on april 12 2026 30c	27	$314	157	157	+0	No	+$0	04-12 18:14
highest temperature in shenzhen on april 11 2026 29c	8	$308	155	155	+0	No	+$1	04-11 10:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-13 02:22:28	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	60¢	$9	0xdad1f1…
08-13 02:21:07	Will Jake Merrick win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xcef989…
06-15 02:06:21	Will Jake Merrick win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x4fc9f9…
06-08 02:36:00	Will Martin O'Donnell be the Republican nominee for NV-03?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xdca9cc…
06-04 06:24:19	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 5?	No	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0xdd0e11…
06-04 06:16:15	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 5?	No	BUY	8	56¢	$4	0x8062b4…
06-04 03:00:49	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 5?	No	BUY	9	70¢	$6	0x7efe5a…
06-04 01:45:00	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 5?	No	BUY	12	52¢	$6	0xef95e6…
06-04 01:29:16	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 5?	No	BUY	9	70¢	$6	0xa7416e…
06-04 01:13:04	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 5?	No	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0xdcdcd3…
06-03 21:21:13	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 5?	No	BUY	9	72¢	$6	0xd0a3ab…
06-03 14:48:12	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 5?	No	BUY	9	69¢	$6	0xc23634…
06-03 14:01:00	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 5?	No	BUY	9	69¢	$6	0x5544dd…
06-03 12:11:27	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 5?	No	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0x020078…
06-01 19:11:15	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 2?	No	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0xd4117b…
06-01 18:42:12	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 2?	No	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x8201a3…
06-01 17:16:46	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 3?	No	BUY	11	60¢	$7	0x4832c9…
06-01 16:36:35	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 3?	No	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0xf20c64…
06-01 15:35:25	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 3?	No	BUY	7	65¢	$5	0xf94081…
06-01 15:35:25	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 3?	No	BUY	1	65¢	$1	0x0da89f…
06-01 15:02:10	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 3?	No	BUY	9	75¢	$7	0x7bbc07…
06-01 13:24:03	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 3?	No	BUY	9	72¢	$6	0xc8d85f…
06-01 12:46:32	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 3?	No	BUY	9	74¢	$7	0x9f9bc8…
06-01 10:45:33	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 3?	No	BUY	8	74¢	$6	0x4a6edf…
05-31 22:10:38	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 2?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x7e24a3…
05-31 22:10:00	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 2?	No	BUY	4	68¢	$3	0xa181a5…
05-31 22:09:25	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 2?	No	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x0e6095…
05-31 21:07:24	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 2?	No	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0xcb3bad…
05-31 18:51:05	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on June 2?	No	BUY	9	70¢	$6	0x9b1c30…
05-31 11:02:45	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 2?	No	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0x9928b3…
05-31 08:29:13	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 1?	No	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0xfea25d…
05-31 04:05:57	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 1?	No	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x3b1efe…
05-30 19:36:42	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 1?	No	BUY	9	73¢	$7	0x8576ba…
05-30 03:55:07	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 31?	No	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0xa6c3c5…
05-30 03:53:27	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 31?	No	BUY	9	66¢	$6	0x82fe77…
05-30 00:50:33	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 31?	No	BUY	7	66¢	$5	0x73df9f…
05-29 23:06:50	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 30?	No	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0xf880ea…
05-29 22:52:48	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 30?	No	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x4fe9e2…
05-29 22:14:03	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 76°F or higher on May 31?	No	BUY	11	64¢	$7	0x61411d…
05-29 21:12:21	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 31?	No	BUY	12	59¢	$7	0xcad35b…
05-29 21:07:29	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 31?	No	BUY	13	60¢	$8	0x7a62a7…
05-29 20:23:39	Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 31?	No	BUY	12	62¢	$7	0x6fc9c5…
05-29 20:07:47	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on May 31?	No	BUY	6	62¢	$4	0x73949a…
05-29 20:06:54	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on May 31?	No	BUY	6	62¢	$3	0xf35f72…
05-29 16:11:20	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 30?	No	BUY	11	72¢	$8	0x3abc96…
05-29 16:08:56	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on May 30?	No	BUY	11	70¢	$8	0x9eda49…
05-29 03:17:36	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 29?	No	BUY	4	64¢	$3	0xb39c63…
05-29 03:01:42	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 29?	No	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0xdc15b5…
05-29 02:55:15	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 29?	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x4af5fc…
05-29 01:23:14	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on May 30?	No	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x2fda7a…
05-28 23:19:34	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on May 29?	No	BUY	6	61¢	$4	0x7a39df…
05-28 23:14:49	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on May 29?	No	BUY	6	60¢	$4	0x7b7a96…
05-28 22:28:44	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 30?	No	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0xf34dec…
05-28 21:22:45	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 30?	No	BUY	6	62¢	$4	0x6a43d1…
05-28 21:21:28	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on May 29?	No	BUY	13	66¢	$8	0xa3a43b…
05-28 21:02:15	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 30?	No	BUY	11	60¢	$7	0x7b4318…
05-28 20:55:52	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 30?	No	BUY	7	62¢	$4	0x8a31bb…
05-28 20:50:31	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 30?	No	BUY	13	60¢	$8	0xc9da6b…
05-28 10:34:02	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on May 28?	No	BUY	13	60¢	$8	0xa61416…
05-28 08:18:47	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 29?	No	BUY	9	62¢	$6	0xc231b5…
05-28 08:18:36	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 84°F or higher on May 29?	No	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0x855464…
05-28 08:16:41	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on May 28?	No	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xd4b056…
05-28 08:16:41	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on May 28?	No	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xbadfe9…
05-28 08:04:45	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on May 28?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xc7657b…
05-27 23:25:00	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 28?	No	BUY	21	64¢	$13	0x526c1d…
05-27 22:32:00	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 28?	No	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x0d8074…
05-27 22:30:14	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 28?	No	BUY	9	64¢	$6	0x8a8846…
05-27 22:16:33	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 28?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x4f5b0b…
05-27 22:14:39	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 29?	No	BUY	4	65¢	$2	0xe046e2…
05-27 21:18:23	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 29?	No	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x987f17…
05-27 21:18:08	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 29?	No	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xda8867…
05-27 20:34:19	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on May 29?	No	BUY	22	57¢	$13	0x853196…
05-27 19:30:21	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on May 28?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xc05633…
05-27 19:30:16	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on May 28?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xc2d97c…
05-27 19:30:04	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on May 28?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x85764b…
05-27 19:30:02	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on May 28?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x87c961…
05-27 17:42:25	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 28?	No	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0x2c2e63…
05-27 17:39:56	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 28?	No	BUY	7	65¢	$5	0xb48285…
05-27 13:35:41	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on May 28?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x30dcd2…
05-27 13:34:28	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on May 28?	No	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0x750dfc…
05-27 13:33:18	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on May 28?	No	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0x4a453c…
05-27 13:28:17	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on May 28?	No	BUY	7	62¢	$4	0x3202b0…
05-27 13:20:26	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C or higher on May 28?	No	BUY	13	64¢	$9	0xcab118…
05-27 08:18:23	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on May 27?	No	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x870c0f…
05-27 08:14:25	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on May 27?	No	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0x695c44…
05-27 05:49:59	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 27?	No	BUY	18	61¢	$11	0xefcb1e…
05-27 05:13:49	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 27?	No	BUY	1	62¢	$0	0x9c79d5…
05-27 02:09:34	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 27?	No	SELL	0	60¢	$0	0x0f5d79…
05-27 02:06:03	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 27?	No	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0xe4c6fc…
05-27 02:06:01	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 27?	No	SELL	11	60¢	$7	0xfb8476…
05-27 00:29:09	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 28?	No	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x610ecb…
05-27 00:02:17	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 28?	No	BUY	12	60¢	$7	0x9efa47…
05-26 23:18:31	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 28?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xe45a36…
05-26 23:18:31	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 28?	No	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x422b27…
05-26 22:55:49	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on May 28?	No	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x8b5f99…
05-26 22:54:43	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on May 28?	No	BUY	6	61¢	$4	0xe444af…
05-26 22:54:43	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on May 28?	No	BUY	6	61¢	$4	0x378754…
05-26 22:54:39	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on May 28?	No	BUY	6	61¢	$4	0x7336c2…
05-26 22:42:40	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 28?	No	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x673894…
05-26 22:19:43	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on May 28?	No	BUY	15	60¢	$9	0x43d936…