Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.50K

Unrealized P&L

-$43

Hit rate

9.9%

Resolved

290

Trades

5,289

lifetime

Volume

$47.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$326

10 positions

First seen

2026-08-10

last 10-25 07:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 49 days

Categories

Politics

58% 12% -$735

Other

39% 14% -$512

Crypto

2% 25% -$237

Tech

1% 0% -$12

Sports

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

44 active days in 12wk • peak 380 trades/day

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	+170	$125	82¢	$139	+$13	09-25 16:41
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?	No	+88	$69	75¢	$66	-$3	09-23 23:46
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	No	+62	$50	62¢	$38	-$12	09-26 00:03
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	No	+170	$58	18¢	$31	-$26	09-26 00:07
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Yes	+62	$41	38¢	$24	-$17	09-24 16:44
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?	Yes	+88	$20	25¢	$22	+$2	09-24 01:41
Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?	Yes	+4	$3	95¢	$3	+$1	09-03 04:45
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	No	+3	$2	78¢	$2	+$0	08-25 18:00
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	+3	$0	22¢	$1	+$0	08-25 02:54
Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?	No	+4	$3	5¢	$0	-$2	09-03 14:08

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 20 and 22 million views on week 1?	29	$1.1K	1,600	1,600	+0	Yes	-$25	09-02 00:16
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	24	$653	815	691	+123	open	—	09-26 00:03
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP?	19	$446	322	322	+0	open	—	09-26 00:07
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	13	$409	393	393	+0	open	—	09-09 18:38
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 31-September 6?	21	$387	395	324	+71	No	-$4	09-09 12:08
Will Marília Campos win the most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?	40	$362	399	399	+0	No	-$25	09-13 11:53
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL?	13	$359	320	320	+0	No	-$23	09-21 12:49
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	14	$355	421	265	+156	No	-$11	09-13 11:46
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	21	$355	543	203	+340	open	—	09-26 00:07
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 31-September 6?	29	$339	506	462	+44	Yes	-$18	09-09 12:16
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1?	11	$339	759	759	+0	No	+$12	09-01 23:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 21:20 UTC	12	$313	561	261	+300	Down	+$16	08-14 21:25
Will SPD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	26	$302	554	554	+0	Yes	-$9	09-10 04:32
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat?	10	$295	220	220	+0	Yes	-$5	09-21 13:18
Will AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	19	$260	352	349	+4	No	-$8	09-10 04:29
Will Esperidião Amin win the most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?	14	$256	205	205	+0	No	-$18	09-01 23:46
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	13	$243	256	256	+0	open	—	09-21 00:37
Will Centre Party (C) win between 7% and 9% of all valid votes?	16	$239	257	257	+0	Yes	-$10	09-10 04:30
Will Left Party (V) win between 7% and 9% of all valid votes?	11	$236	250	250	+0	Yes	-$18	09-09 12:44
Will Carlos Viana win the second-most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?	30	$236	270	270	+0	No	-$21	08-27 23:39
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	13	$233	360	360	+0	No	-$25	09-06 20:06
Will Benedita da Silva win the most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?	22	$231	232	232	+0	No	-$11	09-10 04:30
Will Domingos Sávio win the second-most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?	30	$228	266	266	+0	No	-$29	09-13 11:45
Will the Centre Party (C) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	14	$228	283	197	+86	No	-$8	09-10 04:30
Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028?	10	$228	230	230	+0	open	—	09-19 14:33
Will Styvenson Valentim win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?	30	$226	300	300	+0	Yes	-$10	09-13 07:06
Will Marília Campos win the second-most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?	10	$222	177	177	+0	Yes	-$15	08-25 01:15
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	2	$218	200	200	+0	No	-$2	09-20 05:53
Will Marcel Van Hattem win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election?	14	$217	198	198	+0	No	-$8	09-13 13:07
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.5T and $1.75T?	7	$212	211	211	+0	open	—	09-20 06:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 07:49:17	Will CZ post 0-19 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x768951…
10-24 14:49:29	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MI-08 House election by 15%-20%?	Yes	SELL	0	25¢	$0	0x0057d5…
10-24 14:49:24	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-26 House election by 10%-15%?	No	SELL	0	57¢	$0	0xc4d4bc…
10-24 14:49:20	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OH-11 House election by 65%-70%?	Yes	SELL	0	37¢	$0	0xe3283f…
10-24 14:49:15	Will Junts win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	SELL	0	12¢	$0	0x207294…
10-24 14:49:12	Will Vance peak at Category 4?	Yes	SELL	2	1¢	$0	0x1f6d42…
10-24 14:49:08	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 16?	No	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0xa1bff9…
10-24 14:49:00	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-26 House election by 15%-20%?	No	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0xf7b611…
10-24 14:48:50	Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.0% and 2.0%?	No	SELL	0	60¢	$0	0xe964f5…
10-24 14:48:47	Will Trump's approval rating hit 42% by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	17¢	$0	0x08be7d…
10-24 14:48:42	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico be between 700,000 and 750,000?	Yes	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0xda57d2…
10-24 14:48:38	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-09 House election by 0%-3%?	No	SELL	0	37¢	$0	0x59245a…
10-24 14:48:33	Will Junts win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	SELL	0	72¢	$0	0x522b5a…
10-24 14:48:30	Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0x38a8d6…
10-24 14:48:26	Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	SELL	0	85¢	$0	0x6a8461…
10-24 14:48:23	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NV-03 House election by 20%-25%?	No	SELL	0	79¢	$0	0x59e9d8…
10-24 14:48:18	Yum! Brands (YUM) Q3 worldwide same-restaurant sales growth -0.5% to 0.5%?	Yes	SELL	1	61¢	$0	0x560107…
10-24 14:48:12	Will BNB dip to $650 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	64¢	$0	0xfb16a7…
10-24 14:48:08	Will Democrats win 9 or more of the US House seats bordering Mexico in the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	1	64¢	$0	0x525753…
10-24 14:48:03	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Oklahoma Senate election by 20%-25%?	Yes	SELL	3	16¢	$0	0xce2e78…
10-24 14:47:59	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 PA-09 House election by 30%-35%?	No	SELL	1	68¢	$1	0x34330c…
10-24 14:47:54	Will PP win 120-125 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0x9df6cb…
10-24 14:47:50	Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x7b9ed8…
10-24 14:47:44	Will Troy Jackson run 6 to 9 points behind Hannah Pingree?	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xfe47be…
10-24 14:47:39	Will Democrats win 7 or 8 of the US House seats bordering Mexico in the 2026 midterm elections?	No	SELL	1	73¢	$1	0xded074…
10-24 14:47:35	Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0x0a31db…
10-24 14:47:30	Will PP win 144 or more seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0x56c679…
10-24 14:47:26	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MI-08 House election by 20%-25%?	No	SELL	1	75¢	$1	0xb6a5a0…
10-24 14:47:23	Will Naz Reid win the 2026-27 NBA Most Improved Player?	No	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0x02facc…
10-24 14:47:18	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 SC-03 House election by 30%-35%?	No	SELL	2	70¢	$1	0xfd00a7…
10-24 14:47:12	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 GA-14 House election by 20%-25%?	No	SELL	2	72¢	$1	0x87ff48…
10-24 14:47:06	Will PP win 126-131 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	SELL	2	76¢	$1	0x16ab5f…
10-24 13:28:48	Will Trump's approval rating hit 42% by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0x136f89…
10-24 13:21:45	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 GA-14 House election by 20%-25%?	No	BUY	22	76¢	$16	0xa3afd5…
10-24 13:21:45	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 GA-14 House election by 20%-25%?	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x060635…
10-24 13:18:20	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois be between 4,250,000 and 4,500,000?	Yes	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0xeb7d6e…
10-24 13:03:30	Will Qatar win Group F at the 2027 AFC Asian Cup?	Yes	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0x7a787b…
10-24 13:03:21	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 16?	Yes	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x535fd2…
10-24 13:03:00	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 16?	No	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0xfb688e…
10-24 13:03:00	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 16?	Yes	BUY	9	95¢	$8	0x20b0e2…
10-24 13:00:59	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x2f470c…
10-24 13:00:32	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x5c00b4…
10-24 12:54:11	Will Junts win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	7	10¢	$1	0xe95880…
10-24 12:54:11	Will Junts win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	6	90¢	$6	0x74edfa…
10-24 12:52:47	Will Naz Reid win the 2026-27 NBA Most Improved Player?	No	BUY	21	90¢	$19	0xf2f036…
10-24 12:52:47	Will Naz Reid win the 2026-27 NBA Most Improved Player?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x1ed9eb…
10-24 12:27:12	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois be between 4,250,000 and 4,500,000?	Yes	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0x88e0b4…
10-24 12:26:20	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MI-08 House election by 15%-20%?	No	BUY	6	74¢	$5	0x9f7b53…
10-24 12:26:17	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MI-08 House election by 15%-20%?	Yes	BUY	7	26¢	$2	0x7b4400…
10-24 12:24:14	Will London have 110mm or more of precipitation in October?	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x6a3d8c…
10-24 12:13:57	Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of November 7?	No	SELL	20	29¢	$6	0xe3251e…
10-24 12:10:17	Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0x797b99…
10-24 12:10:17	Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x034755…
10-24 12:00:23	Yum! Brands (YUM) Q3 worldwide same-restaurant sales growth -0.5% to 0.5%?	Yes	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x31d8bd…
10-24 12:00:23	Yum! Brands (YUM) Q3 worldwide same-restaurant sales growth -0.5% to 0.5%?	No	BUY	7	41¢	$3	0x1a3020…
10-24 11:56:30	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 SC-03 House election by 30%-35%?	No	BUY	22	75¢	$16	0x5653e4…
10-24 11:56:30	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 SC-03 House election by 30%-35%?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x3e5a27…
10-24 11:52:41	Will Troy Jackson run 6 to 9 points behind Hannah Pingree?	No	BUY	21	75¢	$16	0x7f1730…
10-24 11:52:41	Will Troy Jackson run 6 to 9 points behind Hannah Pingree?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x5338ed…
10-24 11:45:00	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0x79ac7e…
10-24 11:45:00	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0x3122b0…
10-24 11:39:08	Will Democrats win 7 or 8 of the US House seats bordering Mexico in the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0xab2aa4…
10-24 11:39:08	Will Democrats win 7 or 8 of the US House seats bordering Mexico in the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	21	88¢	$19	0xa9eb62…
10-24 11:39:08	Will Democrats win 9 or more of the US House seats bordering Mexico in the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	11	72¢	$8	0x77d271…
10-24 11:39:08	Will Democrats win 9 or more of the US House seats bordering Mexico in the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0x3a8d12…
10-24 11:34:36	Will Junts win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x85313e…
10-24 11:34:35	Will Junts win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x367faf…
10-24 11:33:45	Will London have 110mm or more of precipitation in October?	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0x51dc41…
10-24 11:28:42	Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of November 7?	No	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x83aaa3…
10-24 11:26:44	Will Qatar win Group F at the 2027 AFC Asian Cup?	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0xe71f0d…
10-24 11:24:09	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 GA-07 House election by 5%-10%?	No	BUY	11	65¢	$7	0x7bb724…
10-24 11:24:08	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 GA-07 House election by 5%-10%?	Yes	BUY	11	35¢	$4	0x8ceea4…
10-24 11:12:47	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NV-03 House election by 20%-25%?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x861548…
10-24 11:12:45	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NV-03 House election by 20%-25%?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xd85519…
10-24 11:11:21	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IL-15 House election by 20%-25%?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x3a9c63…
10-24 10:51:02	Will Troy Jackson run 6 to 9 points behind Hannah Pingree?	No	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x8db558…
10-24 10:50:56	Will Troy Jackson run 6 to 9 points behind Hannah Pingree?	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x347941…
10-24 10:49:47	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MI-08 House election by 20%-25%?	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x5a14e2…
10-24 10:49:47	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MI-08 House election by 20%-25%?	No	BUY	21	77¢	$16	0x469661…
10-24 10:39:44	Will BNB dip to $650 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	21	63¢	$13	0xb554ca…
10-24 10:39:42	Will BNB dip to $650 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x9c0b08…
10-24 10:27:05	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OH-11 House election by 65%-70%?	Yes	BUY	0	34¢	$0	0x848752…
10-24 10:19:00	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 GA-06 House election by 55%-60%?	No	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0x327102…
10-24 10:19:00	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 GA-06 House election by 55%-60%?	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x27da6d…
10-24 10:09:41	Will three people dissent the December Fed decision?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x29194e…
10-24 10:05:35	Will PP win 120-125 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xe4f1e8…
10-24 10:05:35	Will PP win 120-125 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x36cba2…
10-24 09:57:02	Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xe8fc87…
10-24 09:57:02	Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x1c5037…
10-24 09:50:41	Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0x9644cf…
10-24 09:50:41	Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x7b3672…
10-24 09:41:20	Will PP win 126-131 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	22	79¢	$17	0x30bb1c…
10-24 09:41:18	Will PP win 126-131 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x0c7cbb…
10-24 09:39:57	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IL-15 House election by 20%-25%?	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0x497bbc…
10-24 09:39:20	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 PA-09 House election by 30%-35%?	Yes	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0xd4e196…
10-24 09:39:20	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 PA-09 House election by 30%-35%?	No	BUY	11	73¢	$8	0x6143e3…
10-24 09:12:35	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-09 House election by 0%-3%?	No	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0xd2f649…
10-24 09:12:35	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-09 House election by 0%-3%?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x3e2ebb…
10-24 09:06:24	Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	0	39¢	$0	0x606be7…
10-24 09:06:23	Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	5	88¢	$5	0xda4691…