Rough-Reasoning — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.93K

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

88.6%

Resolved

815

Trades

2,983

lifetime

Volume

$128.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$43

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-04-09

last 10-30 09:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 146 days

Categories

Other

96% 83% -$1,513

Crypto

3% 63% -$418

Politics

0% 54% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

82 active days in 12wk • peak 48 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	+5	$5	98¢	$5	+$0	10-30 06:43
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+2	$2	99¢	$2	+$0	10-26 02:48
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	+1	$1	99¢	$1	+$0	10-23 12:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14?	64	$2.8K	2,126	1,912	+214	Down	-$173	06-14 13:44
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on July 10?	11	$2.8K	1,400	1,410	-10	No	+$3	07-10 07:09
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on July 11?	2	$2.0K	2,000	0	+2,000	No	+$3	07-11 02:34
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on July 13?	2	$2.0K	2,000	0	+2,000	No	+$25	07-12 23:20
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 10?	11	$1.9K	1,955	0	+1,955	Yes	+$8	07-10 08:48
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on September 6?	1	$1.9K	1,853	0	+1,853	No	+$2	09-06 09:02
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 27?	9	$1.6K	1,600	0	+1,600	No	+$7	07-27 06:39
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on July 20?	14	$1.6K	1,600	0	+1,600	No	+$10	07-20 03:46
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 25?	62	$1.6K	1,318	1,000	+318	Yes	+$127	08-25 08:22
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on July 28?	1	$1.5K	1,500	0	+1,500	No	+$2	07-28 03:27
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on August 14?	15	$1.4K	1,377	0	+1,377	No	+$14	08-14 07:49
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 21?	8	$1.3K	688	688	+0	No	+$41	06-21 01:42
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 12?	37	$1.3K	1,467	0	+1,467	Yes	-$9	08-12 08:46
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 26?	9	$1.3K	1,287	0	+1,287	No	+$3	07-26 08:54
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on August 15?	9	$1.3K	1,258	0	+1,258	No	+$3	08-15 07:58
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 20?	14	$1.3K	642	642	+0	No	+$32	06-20 01:56
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on July 14?	7	$1.2K	1,160	0	+1,160	No	+$4	07-14 05:08
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on August 4?	63	$1.1K	1,411	158	+1,253	No	-$361	08-04 08:52
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on September 16?	3	$1.1K	1,119	1,119	+0	Yes	-$1,095	09-16 08:05
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on July 9?	6	$1.1K	539	539	+0	No	+$0	07-09 04:20
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on July 10?	9	$1.1K	537	547	-10	No	+$1	07-10 07:09
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on September 4?	49	$1.1K	727	727	+0	Yes	+$127	09-04 06:05
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 27?	3	$1.1K	533	533	+0	No	+$7	06-27 04:06
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 18?	10	$1.0K	1,056	0	+1,056	No	+$7	07-18 07:54
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on September 7?	3	$1.0K	1,057	0	+1,057	No	+$9	09-07 08:07
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on July 15?	8	$1.0K	1,061	0	+1,061	No	+$14	07-15 05:58
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17?	12	$1.0K	530	550	-20	No	+$36	06-17 02:55
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on July 8?	5	$999	1,000	0	+1,000	No	+$1	07-08 03:07
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on July 17?	2	$998	1,000	0	+1,000	No	+$2	07-17 01:09
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 26?	6	$998	500	500	+0	No	+$1	06-26 01:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 09:43:45	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x16a372…
10-30 09:10:12	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x956b79…
10-30 06:43:24	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xeb77b8…
10-30 05:40:48	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	2	74¢	$1	0xfa820a…
10-30 05:31:09	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x57c238…
10-30 04:43:49	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xf9a082…
10-30 03:59:46	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on October 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc142dd…
10-30 03:45:55	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on October 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc2d4cb…
10-30 03:38:27	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	4	89¢	$4	0x80bf59…
10-29 07:43:43	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on October 29?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xb9b36c…
10-29 07:43:41	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3b7abf…
10-29 07:10:02	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x93b0b4…
10-29 07:04:46	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C or below on October 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7db7f3…
10-29 06:21:07	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xd2db8b…
10-29 06:21:01	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xfbf2b3…
10-29 06:20:07	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x7703ea…
10-29 05:38:32	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x7252c1…
10-29 05:19:59	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xbf5d65…
10-29 05:07:34	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xcc9e19…
10-29 05:05:04	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x0703fd…
10-29 04:55:34	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x60256c…
10-29 04:55:02	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xb81b3b…
10-29 04:44:52	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc12427…
10-29 04:44:50	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on October 29?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x2c842a…
10-29 03:35:07	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on October 29?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xfe7d46…
10-29 01:36:04	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on October 29?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa55377…
10-29 01:34:16	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on October 29?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc3f947…
10-28 10:49:11	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on October 28?	No	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0x2ad0e6…
10-28 08:19:17	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xa3d822…
10-28 06:46:04	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on October 28?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x1dd00f…
10-28 06:32:53	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xdabab5…
10-28 04:13:08	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x01566b…
10-28 01:52:17	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on October 28?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xdff977…
10-28 00:12:18	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x84114e…
10-28 00:12:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x3e679f…
10-28 00:11:48	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xffc8a0…
10-28 00:11:48	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf4141e…
10-27 07:42:38	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 27?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x304f49…
10-27 03:21:00	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xed5cc8…
10-26 23:13:54	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x550ba1…
10-26 16:38:26	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on October 27?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x432f47…
10-26 02:52:41	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 26?	No	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0x906bd5…
10-26 02:49:09	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on October 26?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xff0a39…
10-26 02:48:03	Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc49d0a…
10-26 02:45:54	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	BUY	4	94¢	$4	0xaacf5f…
10-26 02:45:41	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	94¢	$4	0x6c0b20…
10-26 02:44:00	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 26?	Yes	SELL	2	32¢	$1	0xe40420…
10-26 02:03:15	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xb03418…
10-26 01:11:05	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on October 26?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x87e33c…
10-26 01:10:57	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on October 26?	Yes	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x9e61dd…
10-25 23:45:42	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 26?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0xf8f462…
10-25 23:10:44	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on October 26?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xdd0efa…
10-25 23:10:33	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on October 26?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x736a90…
10-25 23:08:59	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xdcbcee…
10-25 23:08:51	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x9444aa…
10-25 23:08:48	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x342834…
10-25 16:57:00	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on October 26?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xf36190…
10-25 16:56:59	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on October 26?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xfbc3c0…
10-25 16:56:59	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on October 26?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x337192…
10-25 16:31:41	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x38d31f…
10-25 16:31:35	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x93f643…
10-25 16:12:47	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on October 26?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xf82794…
10-25 08:31:08	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x024c21…
10-25 08:08:45	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xd4b031…
10-25 08:08:14	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x6562b1…
10-25 05:15:14	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x4f981b…
10-25 02:23:24	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on October 25?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x12fbde…
10-25 01:58:20	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on October 25?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x212b0c…
10-25 01:29:57	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x9f4759…
10-25 00:17:20	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x15b400…
10-25 00:16:26	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x933bf8…
10-25 00:13:36	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on October 25?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x4710db…
10-25 00:08:11	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on October 25?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x4eb412…
10-24 06:06:32	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x20ddf5…
10-24 06:06:21	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xbca80c…
10-24 03:32:57	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on October 24?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0xc2d620…
10-24 03:12:54	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 24?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xf42e18…
10-24 03:11:24	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 24?	No	SELL	2	18¢	$0	0x01e905…
10-24 02:43:21	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 24?	No	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x641ee8…
10-24 02:41:44	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on October 24?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x1de7eb…
10-24 01:21:11	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on October 24?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x9cd364…
10-23 12:40:14	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xdb161a…
10-23 06:32:32	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x631dc1…
10-23 06:31:02	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x7ba7d5…
10-23 06:30:44	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xdea608…
10-23 05:36:56	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 23?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x35651a…
10-23 05:35:21	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 23?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x757ed7…
10-23 05:34:18	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x890cc3…
10-23 04:11:20	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 23?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd0c042…
10-23 03:58:45	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 23?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x823a25…
10-23 03:58:32	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 23?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x74dbec…
10-22 17:43:59	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on October 23?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x96de02…
10-22 17:21:53	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	Yes	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x6e13ae…
10-22 17:15:30	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x6ebdf7…
10-22 06:22:11	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x08a893…
10-22 06:20:52	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc5ca88…
10-22 06:19:28	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x46c74f…
10-22 03:36:18	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 20?	Yes	SELL	7	0¢	$0	0xa11f5a…
10-21 04:11:35	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x4f3c8a…
10-21 04:09:45	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x5952ad…