Pessimistic-Tube — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$100

Unrealized P&L

-$5

Hit rate

84.6%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$695

lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

$10

1 position

First seen

2026-05-07

last 06-11 22:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

47% 0% $-5

Sports

24% 100% +$114

Crypto

21% 56% $-9

Tech

7% — —

Other

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (17) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?	Yes		+112	$15	9¢	$10	$-5	06-08 16:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	2	$189	152	152	+0	open	—	06-08 16:34
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	2	$164	139	139	+0	Sean Strickland	+$114	05-10 05:33
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	1	$50	104	0	+104	open	—	06-11 22:04
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	2	$50	173	0	+173	open	—	05-23 20:53
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	4	$37	6,323	0	+6,323	open	—	05-21 12:16
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 18?	1	$35	65	0	+65	open	—	05-17 18:13
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?	1	$15	112	0	+112	open	—	06-08 16:40
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 17?	1	$13	26	0	+26	open	—	05-17 05:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	2	$12	7	7	+0	Down	+$2	05-07 20:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	2	$10	5	5	+0	Up	+$0	05-07 16:23
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	2	$10	90	0	+90	open	—	05-15 18:57
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	2	$10	186	0	+186	open	—	05-15 23:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	1	$5	8	0	+8	Down	+$3	05-08 16:17
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$5	100	0	+100	open	—	05-12 17:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	1	$5	500	0	+500	Down	$-5	05-07 15:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	Down	+$5	05-08 15:20
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$5	56	0	+56	open	—	05-12 17:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	1	$5	42	0	+42	Down	$-5	05-07 16:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	1	$5	26	0	+26	Down	$-5	05-07 19:13
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10?	1	$5	52	0	+52	No	$-5	05-09 20:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	1	$5	14	0	+14	Down	$-5	05-07 16:06
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	1	$5	55	0	+55	No	$-5	05-07 19:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	Up	+$5	05-07 16:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	1	$5	7	0	+7	Up	$-5	05-09 08:25
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	1	$5	24	0	+24	open	—	05-17 18:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	1	$5	9	0	+9	Up	$-5	05-08 15:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	1	$5	9	0	+9	Down	+$4	05-08 15:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	1	$5	8	0	+8	Down	+$3	05-08 14:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	1	$5	7	0	+7	Down	+$2	05-07 16:11
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$5	7	0	+7	open	—	05-12 17:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-11 22:04:51	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	Yes	BUY	104	48¢	$50	0xec371b…
06-08 16:40:34	Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?	Yes	BUY	112	13¢	$15	0x0b5a4a…
06-08 16:34:10	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	152	100¢	$151	0xe972b2…
06-01 13:17:17	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	152	25¢	$38	0xcd1795…
05-23 20:53:36	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	63	32¢	$20	0x419074…
05-21 12:16:11	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	5,500	0¢	$11	0x906539…
05-17 18:51:55	Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	Yes	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x36cf14…
05-17 18:13:53	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 18?	Up	BUY	65	54¢	$35	0x08481f…
05-17 10:54:13	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	240	2¢	$6	0x2d0145…
05-17 05:26:42	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 17?	Up	BUY	26	50¢	$13	0x16c71d…
05-16 08:03:00	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	417	4¢	$15	0xe95daf…
05-15 23:00:49	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	138	3¢	$4	0x0bfc9b…
05-15 23:00:24	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	179	3¢	$5	0x059062…
05-15 23:00:21	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	167	3¢	$5	0x772f57…
05-15 18:57:08	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0xf4f8df…
05-14 05:57:54	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0xb9ae13…
05-12 17:30:03	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xde3671…
05-12 17:29:52	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0xc316e3…
05-12 17:27:30	Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x5c707b…
05-12 17:27:27	Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0xc1e688…
05-12 09:48:46	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x59bc66…
05-10 05:33:07	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Sean Strickland	SELL	139	100¢	$139	0x2acbad…
05-09 20:45:49	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10?	Yes	BUY	52	10¢	$5	0x866e3f…
05-09 08:25:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x0a37c8…
05-08 16:17:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0xf36fa1…
05-08 16:11:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0xb07cf5…
05-08 15:56:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x218144…
05-08 15:20:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xafe991…
05-08 15:02:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x1c8160…
05-08 14:52:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xeacde8…
05-07 20:36:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x32d846…
05-07 20:30:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x014160…
05-07 19:46:11	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	55	9¢	$5	0xbfb9ea…
05-07 19:13:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x5bf62b…
05-07 18:35:34	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	111	27¢	$30	0x26e2ae…
05-07 16:25:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xc3a1de…
05-07 16:23:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x1da51e…
05-07 16:22:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x5e7405…
05-07 16:16:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x7c2cec…
05-07 16:11:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x61e40b…
05-07 16:06:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xddacaa…
05-07 15:59:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xafbef1…
05-07 15:42:28	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Sean Strickland	BUY	139	18¢	$25	0x8e38b6…