Tidy-Negotiation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.10K

Unrealized P&L

+$71

Hit rate

23.5%

Resolved

982

Trades

2,877

lifetime

Volume

$82.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$28

Open exposure

$440

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-01 08:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 238 days

Categories

Other

51% 27% -$1,600

Politics

37% 18% -$401

Tech

4% 29% -$59

Crypto

4% 37% -$270

Sports

3% 48% +$233

Pop-Culture

1% 67% -$6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

76 active days in 12wk • peak 22 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	+300	$201	80¢	$240	+$39	11-01 07:05
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	+200	$148	74¢	$149	+$1	11-01 08:55
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	+118	$20	44¢	$51	+$31	09-25 20:21

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	20	$4.8K	3,450	3,450	+0	open	—	10-25 22:05
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	20	$3.4K	2,800	2,800	+0	open	—	10-31 07:53
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	12	$1.3K	1,003	1,003	+0	open	—	11-01 06:38
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	15	$1.3K	1,164	1,164	+0	Yes	-$41	03-08 20:11
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	12	$904	561	561	+0	Yes	+$0	10-16 05:50
will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	22	$790	717	717	+0	Yes	$0	03-15 20:39
will mrbeasts next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 432	24	$758	718	876	-158	No	-$4	03-22 07:39
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	2	$744	400	400	+0	Yes	+$0	06-06 10:04
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	6	$712	400	400	+0	Yes	+$8	10-23 20:41
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	2	$640	400	400	+0	Yes	+$0	10-23 20:41
spx opens up or down on march 18 2026	6	$617	494	794	-300	Down	+$132	03-17 21:50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	2	$600	400	400	+0	open	—	06-10 20:52
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	4	$587	405	405	+0	open	—	10-31 09:37
spx opens up or down on march 19 2026	10	$556	550	550	+0	Down	-$11	03-18 21:09
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	4	$549	500	200	+300	open	—	11-01 07:05
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	8	$526	500	500	+0	Yes	-$2	03-27 06:24
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	4	$478	400	400	+0	Yes	-$2	03-09 18:30
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	2	$477	278	278	+0	Yes	+$77	09-21 07:39
will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	8	$473	500	500	+0	No	-$63	07-09 19:59
will 15 19 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 17 23	12	$470	492	492	+0	Yes	-$5	03-29 20:24
will edu aguirre attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260806200934310	3	$460	588	588	+0	No	-$112	08-09 05:23
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	4	$414	300	300	+0	open	—	10-25 09:10
will the us accuse iran of oslo embassy attack	17	$402	449	460	-11	No	-$7	03-08 20:53
spx up or down on march 13 2026	4	$398	400	400	+0	Down	-$6	03-13 18:59
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?	2	$370	200	200	+0	Yes	-$2	04-25 12:27
wti up or down on june 30 2026	7	$365	400	400	+0	Down	-$23	06-30 16:32
will the freedom movement gs win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 529	2	$363	200	200	+0	Yes	-$1	03-22 20:27
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	3	$350	200	200	+0	open	—	10-22 19:50
donald trump of truth social posts march 17 march 24 80 99	23	$338	360	360	+0	Yes	-$4	03-22 15:04
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	9	$338	250	250	+0	No	-$16	06-06 01:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 08:55:10	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	200	74¢	$148	0x3ab881…
11-01 07:05:33	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	23	67¢	$15	0x28148f…
11-01 07:05:33	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	277	67¢	$186	0x248686…
11-01 06:38:13	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	237	65¢	$154	0x986df1…
11-01 06:36:27	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	237	65¢	$154	0xce49f5…
11-01 06:36:10	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	363	65¢	$236	0x0318e3…
11-01 06:35:30	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	363	65¢	$236	0x987328…
10-31 09:37:03	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0x4b44c9…
10-31 08:12:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xc3e828…
10-31 07:53:54	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	800	57¢	$456	0xc6ffa3…
10-31 07:37:07	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	800	57¢	$456	0xef2b1b…
10-30 21:48:57	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0xf9d83f…
10-30 12:05:10	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	200	66¢	$133	0x988417…
10-30 12:05:04	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	600	58¢	$350	0xd64718…
10-30 11:11:07	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	600	59¢	$354	0xeae8ab…
10-30 10:53:22	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	65	66¢	$43	0x40bc1d…
10-30 10:50:39	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	124	67¢	$82	0xe199ea…
10-30 10:44:15	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	11	67¢	$7	0x07e375…
10-29 22:32:22	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	400	58¢	$231	0x61bd49…
10-29 20:05:33	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	197	55¢	$109	0x92590f…
10-29 20:02:01	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	111	55¢	$61	0x46bdb2…
10-29 19:59:48	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0xbf89bc…
10-29 19:59:12	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x2837ae…
10-29 19:58:19	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	33	55¢	$18	0x449bba…
10-29 19:58:10	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	22	55¢	$12	0xc25e39…
10-29 19:57:16	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	10	55¢	$5	0xeb03dc…
10-29 19:52:18	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x80f7f9…
10-29 19:52:12	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xa4a719…
10-29 06:48:01	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	200	74¢	$148	0xccbd1a…
10-29 05:37:46	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	200	74¢	$149	0x440864…
10-29 05:25:04	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	380	54¢	$205	0xc2441a…
10-29 05:24:34	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	380	55¢	$209	0x9cea97…
10-29 05:23:32	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	20	55¢	$11	0x77afe8…
10-29 05:22:34	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x2f2b6c…
10-28 21:32:19	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	SELL	400	72¢	$288	0x164def…
10-28 21:30:23	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	400	73¢	$292	0xf03fe7…
10-27 20:24:00	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	3	57¢	$2	0x1d9173…
10-27 20:23:02	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	3	55¢	$2	0x68be3f…
10-27 20:16:54	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	600	73¢	$440	0xe8a38d…
10-27 20:15:36	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	600	73¢	$438	0xd098da…
10-25 22:05:02	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	600	79¢	$474	0x5f9742…
10-25 21:20:17	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	600	84¢	$504	0xf898db…
10-25 09:10:54	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	SELL	150	67¢	$101	0x203266…
10-25 09:10:48	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	600	82¢	$492	0xb8e74b…
10-25 08:05:44	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	600	83¢	$498	0xfc6646…
10-25 07:36:48	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	BUY	150	69¢	$103	0x17fc4b…
10-24 08:05:11	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	SELL	150	70¢	$105	0x7743f5…
10-24 08:04:45	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	600	76¢	$456	0xb88e63…
10-24 06:34:14	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	600	76¢	$456	0x0b3187…
10-24 05:44:42	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	BUY	150	70¢	$105	0x22aff8…
10-23 20:41:14	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	150	75¢	$112	0xa74d20…
10-23 20:41:08	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	400	80¢	$320	0xaa99a9…
10-23 20:41:00	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	400	90¢	$360	0x4e28bb…
10-23 19:37:11	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	86	88¢	$76	0x609784…
10-23 19:36:53	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0xbf281d…
10-23 19:36:53	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	150	75¢	$112	0x79357d…
10-23 19:19:48	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	42	88¢	$37	0xca76f4…
10-23 19:18:03	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	183	88¢	$161	0x6bbe16…
10-23 19:10:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	79	88¢	$69	0xb0e119…
10-23 18:30:48	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	400	80¢	$320	0xe9e72f…
10-23 18:10:41	Will Michael Olise attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	SELL	12	53¢	$6	0x213398…
10-23 18:08:59	Will Michael Olise attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	BUY	12	53¢	$6	0xc635a7…
10-22 20:11:05	NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	80	29¢	$23	0xd3fa0a…
10-22 19:54:50	NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	30¢	$24	0x507e26…
10-22 19:50:47	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	200	87¢	$174	0x433712…
10-22 19:50:39	Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	No	SELL	200	87¢	$174	0x968f91…
10-22 19:07:33	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0xc768db…
10-22 19:07:33	Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	No	BUY	186	88¢	$164	0x9a946b…
10-22 19:07:33	Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	No	BUY	14	88¢	$12	0x1e6912…
10-22 19:03:36	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	75¢	$75	0xb3b147…
10-22 19:03:32	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	37¢	$7	0x149d59…
10-22 19:03:27	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	45¢	$9	0xb26579…
10-22 19:03:21	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	43¢	$22	0x093cd8…
10-22 17:56:32	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	74¢	$74	0x03849d…
10-22 17:49:48	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x814af5…
10-22 17:49:47	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	45	51¢	$23	0xcbb53e…
10-22 17:49:47	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	0	51¢	$0	0x9c7c95…
10-21 18:57:36	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0x2dbfd9…
10-21 18:56:09	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x9b8d04…
10-21 06:16:39	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	200	69¢	$138	0x78b7b7…
10-21 05:03:08	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	200	69¢	$138	0x5973b1…
10-21 04:27:56	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	No	SELL	30	41¢	$12	0x63ab3c…
10-20 19:29:06	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	No	BUY	30	41¢	$12	0xc8b6cc…
10-20 06:26:34	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	SELL	77	26¢	$20	0x7d2fb1…
10-20 06:26:23	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	400	21¢	$84	0x4423c2…
10-20 04:47:23	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	323	22¢	$71	0x8e46a7…
10-20 04:35:12	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xbb8f49…
10-20 04:34:51	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	72	22¢	$16	0xec4fe2…
10-19 19:59:53	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	400	78¢	$312	0x0e7f12…
10-19 19:17:51	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	400	78¢	$312	0xa23d27…
10-18 08:21:59	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	SELL	50	60¢	$30	0x61df49…
10-18 07:40:35	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	50	69¢	$34	0x5b3509…
10-17 07:44:11	next white house press secretary announced by november 30 2026	Yes	SELL	80	56¢	$45	0x6fb404…
10-17 07:44:03	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	400	78¢	$312	0x0a49d5…
10-17 06:50:35	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	400	78¢	$312	0xe49e9d…
10-17 05:44:05	next white house press secretary announced by november 30 2026	Yes	BUY	80	58¢	$46	0x7a38a1…
10-16 19:45:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	SELL	75	45¢	$34	0x8d36fb…
10-16 19:44:13	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	BUY	75	46¢	$35	0xca750a…
10-16 19:30:02	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in September?	Yes	SELL	6	30¢	$2	0xa54c4f…
10-16 19:29:55	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in September?	No	SELL	20	49¢	$10	0x5bfaf3…