Scrawny-Detection — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$21

Unrealized P&L

+$8

Hit rate

57.4%

Resolved

Trades

466

lifetime

Volume

$35.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$77

Open exposure

$18

1 position

First seen

2026-01-03

last 07-07 00:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Other

74% — —

Politics

14% 0% $-6

Crypto

11% 50% $-15

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

43 active days in 12wk • peak 89 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No		+19	$10	96¢	$18	+$8	05-31 08:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	7	$10.7K	1,479	9,806	-8,327	open	—	07-07 00:05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	19	$5.8K	4,458	3,443	+1,015	open	—	05-06 11:05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	10	$2.6K	1,374	1,374	+0	open	—	05-10 03:40
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	6	$1.8K	2,086	2,086	+0	open	—	02-28 22:32
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$1.2K	704	704	+0	open	—	04-17 15:33
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	9	$1.2K	1,255	1,808	-554	open	—	05-27 22:15
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	1	$1.1K	0	1,086	-1,086	open	—	01-27 10:24
will the government shutdown last 7 days or more 188 769 669 728 992	1	$767	882	0	+882	open	—	01-29 10:42
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	5	$561	541	341	+200	open	—	02-23 06:03
will bitcoin dip to 65k in february 2026 372 697	1	$529	716	0	+716	open	—	02-05 15:55
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	2	$516	627	0	+627	open	—	04-07 22:35
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?	2	$500	689	0	+689	open	—	02-19 23:16
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	7	$489	346	346	+0	open	—	05-06 09:52
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	3	$485	270	270	+0	open	—	04-18 13:08
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	2	$310	172	172	+0	open	—	03-25 12:21
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$309	0	310	-310	open	—	04-17 15:33
Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027?	1	$300	419	0	+419	open	—	01-16 04:03
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	5	$298	211	211	+0	open	—	07-02 01:02
btc updown 5m 1776948300	4	$231	130	129	+1	open	—	04-23 12:48
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	5	$215	161	161	+0	open	—	04-26 10:36
btc updown 5m 1776952800	3	$211	114	102	+12	open	—	04-23 14:05
will the us invade iran by march 31	2	$201	117	117	+0	open	—	03-25 12:19
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$199	120	120	+0	open	—	03-25 12:20
iran strike on us military by february 28	2	$199	102	102	+0	open	—	03-01 01:13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	3	$191	582	582	+0	open	—	06-24 13:38
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	2	$162	167	167	+0	open	—	03-07 02:09
will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026	2	$154	193	193	+0	open	—	01-03 08:21
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?	2	$136	121	121	+0	open	—	05-23 15:00
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	3	$130	201	185	+16	open	—	01-30 17:33
btc updown 5m 1776868500	3	$121	137	19	+118	open	—	04-22 14:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-07 00:05:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	9,806	100¢	$9,796	0x3fcea8…
07-02 01:02:02	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	211	99¢	$208	0x070eeb…
07-01 13:47:04	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	948	0¢	$3	0xe4ec8f…
06-27 05:20:01	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x2f57fd…
06-27 03:05:59	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	35	57¢	$20	0x640cf4…
06-26 16:18:08	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	45	44¢	$20	0x737a5d…
06-26 16:13:07	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x9515da…
06-26 13:52:55	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	53	38¢	$20	0xef783c…
06-26 12:11:14	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	77	39¢	$30	0x28db1c…
06-26 12:10:59	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	833	6¢	$50	0x951616…
06-24 13:38:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	582	14¢	$81	0x605f7b…
06-24 13:36:58	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x44d366…
06-20 15:24:01	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	18	14¢	$3	0xc1c606…
06-18 13:56:35	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x90a89b…
06-15 00:41:13	will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	Yes	SELL	85	7¢	$6	0x7eb282…
06-03 03:53:52	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June?	Yes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x08af1d…
06-01 13:33:37	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	Yes	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0x9b4f74…
06-01 09:50:47	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	Yes	BUY	54	56¢	$30	0xc159a5…
05-31 08:02:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x23b956…
05-31 03:00:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	139	72¢	$100	0xaeddbc…
05-31 01:59:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x9369be…
05-31 01:09:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	SELL	3	5¢	$0	0xd757c1…
05-31 01:07:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x10605c…
05-31 00:44:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	137	73¢	$100	0xcb4533…
05-31 00:44:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0x7971f6…
05-30 16:06:20	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xfaa052…
05-30 16:06:16	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x7e2088…
05-30 15:02:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	149	67¢	$100	0x3847cb…
05-30 14:51:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	526	19¢	$100	0xdc4aea…
05-29 13:39:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	159	63¢	$100	0x008255…
05-28 08:24:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0xbbe1dc…
05-28 05:59:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	76	66¢	$50	0x9745df…
05-27 22:16:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	820	61¢	$500	0xf4afc5…
05-27 22:15:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	554	99¢	$549	0x52a308…
05-26 07:37:51	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	No	SELL	2	89¢	$2	0x0a2e1c…
05-24 03:10:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	1,012	9¢	$96	0xfa4da6…
05-23 18:20:57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	14	52¢	$7	0x771fdf…
05-23 15:00:06	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?	No	SELL	121	46¢	$56	0xb60ac1…
05-23 14:57:13	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 23?	Up	BUY	1,695	1¢	$10	0xe8e26f…
05-23 14:55:56	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 23?	Up	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x3d3a4c…
05-23 14:43:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	254	12¢	$30	0x59aa3e…
05-23 14:42:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	243	88¢	$214	0xbd9d0e…
05-23 14:40:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	758	12¢	$90	0x8cdb50…
05-23 11:34:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x3993f0…
05-23 11:29:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	SELL	8	9¢	$1	0x93e681…
05-23 11:28:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x887088…
05-23 11:24:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	SELL	33	5¢	$2	0xe6b600…
05-23 11:24:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x502a4a…
05-23 11:18:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x8e078d…
05-23 11:18:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xd03104…
05-23 10:56:34	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?	No	BUY	121	66¢	$80	0x407c2c…
05-23 10:40:59	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xa6b0db…
05-23 04:19:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xe45aa5…
05-21 10:57:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	32	95¢	$30	0x04efd8…
05-16 03:54:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Up	SELL	15	61¢	$9	0xc93e42…
05-16 03:54:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Up	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x5894c0…
05-15 11:14:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	SELL	24	1¢	$0	0xae8112…
05-15 11:12:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x0245f5…
05-15 09:48:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	SELL	4	25¢	$1	0x2f93d8…
05-15 09:47:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x202cd0…
05-15 09:46:47	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x4bdc74…
05-15 07:34:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x55e2d9…
05-15 07:29:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	SELL	4	6¢	$0	0xa50387…
05-15 07:29:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xaa5da1…
05-15 06:19:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Up	SELL	12	5¢	$1	0xf4ce03…
05-15 06:19:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x9bde37…
05-14 02:19:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x11a4f3…
05-13 09:43:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x20740f…
05-13 09:43:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x7c0417…
05-13 09:39:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xc7c974…
05-13 09:32:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x49d0ea…
05-13 03:27:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x9801ea…
05-13 02:39:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Down	SELL	4	83¢	$3	0x6ba1b1…
05-13 02:39:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xea3bbf…
05-12 10:38:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x3c8ffb…
05-12 10:37:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0x44cf8d…
05-12 10:18:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	SELL	8	27¢	$2	0x6d6d65…
05-12 10:17:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x1a19dc…
05-10 23:14:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	SELL	7	5¢	$0	0x72cf2f…
05-10 23:14:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0xb3d8a7…
05-10 03:40:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	1,374	98¢	$1,352	0xe125a8…
05-06 11:05:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	508	100¢	$507	0xf47259…
05-06 09:52:38	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	38	66¢	$25	0xa663a1…
05-06 02:49:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Down	BUY	28	4¢	$1	0xb8924b…
05-05 14:44:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	SELL	2	9¢	$0	0x6e7714…
05-05 14:44:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x183e5f…
05-05 09:09:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	SELL	95	11¢	$11	0xa0f6fd…
05-05 09:09:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	95	11¢	$10	0x1f1788…
05-05 08:59:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	16	68¢	$11	0x2eb863…
05-05 08:55:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x41307f…
05-05 08:14:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0xad5986…
05-05 08:09:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0xda91a9…
05-05 08:09:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0xc63e85…
05-05 08:09:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x230962…
05-04 16:25:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	508	100¢	$506	0x68878c…
05-03 11:43:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	600	100¢	$599	0x717e48…
05-03 10:09:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xa197de…
05-01 14:32:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	54	92¢	$50	0xa74d46…
05-01 14:31:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	879	91¢	$800	0x6cfd32…
05-01 14:31:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	877	100¢	$876	0xff948c…