Knotty-Fishbone — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$63

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

62.0%

Resolved

431

Trades

723

lifetime

Volume

$5.51K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 11-04 15:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 12 days

Categories

Crypto

90% 59% +$156

Other

6% 67% -$4

Politics

4% 29% -$90

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 397 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?	9	$252	300	300	+0	Yes	+$0	01-15 03:06
Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026?	4	$87	90	0	+90	Yes	+$3	05-12 02:57
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	1	$78	91	0	+91	Yes	+$13	05-27 15:25
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	2	$60	120	120	+0	No	+$2	01-08 12:56
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	2	$43	310	0	+310	No	-$43	01-14 23:48
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	1	$33	174	0	+174	No	-$33	01-09 02:06
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-03 05:15 UTC	4	$30	60	0	+60	Down	+$0	01-03 05:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	3	$30	45	0	+45	Up	-$15	11-03 14:48
Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	4	$29	53	0	+53	Up	+$8	11-04 12:17
Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	4	$29	49	0	+49	Down	+$10	11-03 14:52
Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	4	$29	53	0	+53	Up	+$9	11-03 15:08
Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	4	$29	54	0	+54	Up	+$1	11-04 15:57
Ethereum Up or Down - November 2, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	4	$29	59	0	+59	Up	-$1	11-03 03:02
Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	4	$29	55	0	+55	Down	+$1	11-03 14:37
Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	3	$29	44	0	+44	Down	+$15	11-04 02:32
Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	4	$29	53	0	+53	Down	-$6	11-03 15:03
Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	4	$29	60	0	+60	Up	+$1	11-04 04:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	4	$29	56	0	+56	Up	-$14	11-03 15:34
Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	5	$29	61	0	+61	Up	-$13	11-04 15:23
Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	4	$29	55	0	+55	Up	+$16	11-04 14:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	4	$29	57	0	+57	Up	+$1	11-04 14:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	4	$29	54	0	+54	Down	+$10	11-04 16:50
Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	4	$29	59	0	+59	Up	-$14	11-04 14:45
Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	5	$29	54	0	+54	Down	-$13	11-04 16:40
Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	5	$29	59	0	+59	Up	+$14	11-04 15:48
Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	4	$29	60	0	+60	Up	+$16	11-04 16:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	5	$29	56	0	+56	Down	-$3	11-04 14:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	4	$29	56	0	+56	Up	-$4	11-04 03:18
Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	5	$29	68	0	+68	Down	+$16	11-04 15:09
Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	6	$29	70	0	+70	Up	-$4	11-04 15:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 16:50:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	15	73¢	$11	0x0cbb72…
11-04 16:50:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0xbb42ea…
11-04 16:50:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x1fb645…
11-04 16:50:48	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	15	72¢	$11	0x53d702…
11-04 16:50:13	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	15	44¢	$7	0x79c382…
11-04 16:49:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	15	57¢	$9	0x5ca99d…
11-04 16:48:21	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	16	46¢	$7	0xf61e64…
11-04 16:48:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x2129b6…
11-04 16:48:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	15	54¢	$8	0x40e1ea…
11-04 16:45:51	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	15	56¢	$8	0xd25754…
11-04 16:45:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	15	52¢	$8	0x01bc96…
11-04 16:40:36	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0xafd879…
11-04 16:40:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	15	46¢	$7	0xf1a827…
11-04 16:40:31	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xa32bf4…
11-04 16:40:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	15	39¢	$6	0x6f8e9b…
11-04 16:40:19	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	11	42¢	$5	0x699382…
11-04 16:40:19	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x00adec…
11-04 16:40:15	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	15	61¢	$9	0xf9f158…
11-04 16:38:01	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	17	22¢	$4	0xb28d6d…
11-04 16:36:18	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x69de5c…
11-04 16:35:12	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	15	30¢	$4	0x21e897…
11-04 16:34:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	15	55¢	$8	0xb571f6…
11-04 16:33:27	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	7	64¢	$4	0xe97386…
11-04 16:32:31	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	7	36¢	$2	0x73d026…
11-04 16:32:16	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	8	70¢	$6	0x0f66fd…
11-04 16:32:13	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	6	37¢	$2	0x391aef…
11-04 16:31:42	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x671d95…
11-04 16:31:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	15	40¢	$6	0xfd426d…
11-04 16:31:22	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	55¢	$3	0xedf981…
11-04 16:30:34	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x769001…
11-04 16:30:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x301533…
11-04 16:28:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0xd64629…
11-04 16:28:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	15	59¢	$9	0x87337b…
11-04 16:28:03	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	15	32¢	$5	0xa2641f…
11-04 16:27:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	15	45¢	$7	0x3e23aa…
11-04 16:26:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x8a95b4…
11-04 16:26:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	15	52¢	$8	0x243ca8…
11-04 16:25:46	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	15	53¢	$8	0x742a3f…
11-04 16:25:37	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	15	55¢	$8	0xc1ceb2…
11-04 16:25:34	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	15	52¢	$8	0x0e0730…
11-04 16:21:34	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xcf8d12…
11-04 16:21:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	17	32¢	$6	0x927c6c…
11-04 16:21:31	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	15	57¢	$9	0x791241…
11-04 16:21:16	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x77bb9e…
11-04 16:21:16	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	15	50¢	$8	0x0402fd…
11-04 16:20:28	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	17	49¢	$8	0x1636a0…
11-04 16:20:15	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	15	52¢	$8	0x228476…
11-04 16:18:19	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	15	72¢	$11	0x1455ee…
11-04 16:17:09	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	15	51¢	$8	0xaffa33…
11-04 16:16:51	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	15	52¢	$8	0xfc9550…
11-04 16:14:24	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	9	43¢	$4	0x730d48…
11-04 16:11:31	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	15	76¢	$12	0xee7271…
11-04 16:11:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	15	75¢	$11	0x0b80c1…
11-04 16:10:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	15	61¢	$9	0x8fc89d…
11-04 16:10:45	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0xd3366c…
11-04 16:07:45	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0xc20b18…
11-04 16:07:00	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	15	49¢	$7	0x3a580a…
11-04 16:06:21	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x32ae92…
11-04 16:05:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xc36f82…
11-04 15:57:40	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0xc64c50…
11-04 15:57:40	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0x94875d…
11-04 15:57:16	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	15	80¢	$12	0xcee20e…
11-04 15:57:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x231f59…
11-04 15:56:42	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	15	45¢	$7	0x76f66d…
11-04 15:55:54	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	16	46¢	$7	0x61d2ec…
11-04 15:51:28	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	15	76¢	$12	0x36687d…
11-04 15:51:24	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x7965c5…
11-04 15:51:01	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x9a533c…
11-04 15:48:36	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	7	52¢	$3	0x86c989…
11-04 15:48:25	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	15	64¢	$10	0xb7aee3…
11-04 15:47:51	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	16	29¢	$5	0xbe203b…
11-04 15:47:43	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0x200e79…
11-04 15:47:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	15	75¢	$11	0xf36ef9…
11-04 15:46:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	53¢	$1	0xc7a8c4…
11-04 15:46:45	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	39¢	$4	0x882d8f…
11-04 15:46:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	9	47¢	$4	0xe3a4c2…
11-04 15:45:58	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	9	45¢	$4	0xfb399d…
11-04 15:45:48	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	12	61¢	$7	0xe16180…
11-04 15:45:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	15	70¢	$10	0xdbdb91…
11-04 15:42:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	15	35¢	$5	0x137f8e…
11-04 15:41:16	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	15	59¢	$9	0xc927f4…
11-04 15:40:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	15	58¢	$9	0x4af878…
11-04 15:40:48	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$3	0xaf4d2f…
11-04 15:38:21	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	15	54¢	$8	0xfe0129…
11-04 15:37:34	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	15	64¢	$10	0xb1b42b…
11-04 15:37:34	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	15	54¢	$8	0x1d0e6d…
11-04 15:37:06	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	15	58¢	$9	0x3cb37f…
11-04 15:36:54	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	3	40¢	$1	0xd09603…
11-04 15:33:30	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	6	63¢	$4	0xb70d4e…
11-04 15:33:22	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	12	66¢	$8	0x2404c5…
11-04 15:33:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	15	21¢	$3	0x534359…
11-04 15:33:21	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	6	56¢	$3	0x248784…
11-04 15:33:13	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	12	54¢	$6	0xa42042…
11-04 15:31:25	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	15	46¢	$7	0xd48ecd…
11-04 15:31:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	14	64¢	$9	0x02c67f…
11-04 15:30:37	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	0	64¢	$0	0xf2f101…
11-04 15:29:12	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x81aa88…
11-04 15:25:33	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	15	74¢	$11	0xaaa86e…
11-04 15:23:42	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	15	12¢	$2	0x9c46fc…
11-04 15:23:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	15	47¢	$7	0xc6e9dc…