Virtual-Underestimate — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$11

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

159

lifetime

Volume

$1.77K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-08

last 07-01 21:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

69% 100% +$11

Other

19% — —

Politics

12% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	2	$247	130	130	+0	open	—	04-16 15:49
will fidesz kdnp win 100 114 seats in the hungarian national assembly in this election	4	$220	135	135	+0	open	—	04-02 09:33
btc updown 5m 1770924300	4	$210	117	116	+0	open	—	02-12 19:28
btc updown 15m 1770643800	2	$195	116	116	+1	open	—	02-09 13:42
ethereum up or down february 8 9am et	2	$177	120	120	+0	open	—	02-08 14:54
btc updown 5m 1775122800	1	$110	123	0	+123	open	—	04-02 09:42
btc updown 5m 1771070400	1	$106	109	0	+109	open	—	02-14 12:04
btc updown 15m 1770666300	6	$85	54	50	+4	open	—	02-09 20:00
btc updown 15m 1770891300	2	$55	36	36	+1	open	—	02-12 10:24
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	4	$30	349	349	+0	open	—	04-13 07:38
btc updown 15m 1770528600	4	$27	23	23	+0	open	—	02-08 05:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	1	$25	29	0	+29	Down	+$4	05-13 14:19
btc updown 15m 1770540300	2	$24	22	21	+0	open	—	02-08 08:47
highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 14c	5	$18	25	24	+1	open	—	04-01 07:06
btc updown 5m 1782941700	4	$16	11	11	+0	open	—	07-01 21:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	3	$15	15	5	+10	Down	+$1	05-09 22:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	1	$10	13	0	+13	open	—	05-17 20:34
btc updown 15m 1770562800	9	$10	15	11	+4	open	—	02-08 15:16
btc updown 15m 1770529500	2	$10	20	0	+20	open	—	02-08 05:47
btc updown 5m 1770923400	1	$8	16	0	+16	open	—	02-12 19:10
btc updown 15m 1770889500	2	$8	13	0	+13	open	—	02-12 09:52
btc updown 5m 1774699200	2	$7	4	4	+0	open	—	03-28 12:05
eth updown 15m 1770555600	1	$7	9	0	+9	open	—	02-08 13:02
highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 13c	4	$6	19	10	+9	open	—	03-31 07:28
btc updown 15m 1770915600	1	$6	11	0	+11	open	—	02-12 16:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	3	$6	22	0	+22	open	—	05-17 20:14
btc updown 5m 1782942000	2	$6	12	0	+12	open	—	07-01 21:41
btc updown 15m 1770760800	2	$6	4	4	+0	open	—	02-10 22:16
highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 12c	4	$6	23	11	+11	open	—	03-31 07:28
btc updown 15m 1770545700	4	$5	7	7	+0	open	—	02-08 10:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-01 21:51:25	doge updown 5m 1782942600	Up	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x45588f…
07-01 21:41:52	btc updown 5m 1782942000	Up	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xb42d20…
07-01 21:41:23	btc updown 5m 1782942000	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xdda8ed…
07-01 21:39:58	btc updown 5m 1782941700	Down	SELL	6	89¢	$5	0x102141…
07-01 21:38:53	btc updown 5m 1782941700	Up	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x14f2f1…
07-01 21:38:16	btc updown 5m 1782941700	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x66b87a…
07-01 21:36:47	btc updown 5m 1782941700	Down	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0x93c9f4…
06-04 21:05:31	btc updown 5m 1780607100	Up	SELL	2	57¢	$1	0x9bd1e1…
06-04 21:04:42	btc updown 5m 1780607100	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xf46611…
05-17 20:44:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xaf33d7…
05-17 20:34:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x8a3451…
05-17 20:25:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x7e5e79…
05-17 20:18:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x8da340…
05-17 20:14:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x4676de…
05-17 20:14:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x64dbd1…
05-17 20:12:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x40d8f0…
05-17 20:09:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xd42168…
05-17 20:06:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x53c653…
05-16 08:54:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x291acb…
05-16 08:54:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	SELL	1	21¢	$0	0x885080…
05-16 08:53:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x747721…
05-16 08:50:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x1a4ef8…
05-16 08:49:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xf7f6c3…
05-13 20:54:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	SELL	2	91¢	$1	0xa32c02…
05-13 20:52:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xf5e623…
05-13 20:38:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	SELL	4	61¢	$2	0x5f8671…
05-13 20:37:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x7a41c2…
05-13 17:57:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xc3f978…
05-13 17:52:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xaabd40…
05-13 17:46:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xbe00b6…
05-13 14:19:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	29	86¢	$25	0xb320f9…
05-09 22:24:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xa40be9…
05-09 22:24:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	SELL	5	51¢	$3	0x02397e…
05-09 22:22:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x6e6f8f…
05-09 19:50:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xb9f877…
05-05 18:59:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0x787c26…
05-05 18:56:08	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x3db655…
04-16 15:49:22	Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	No	SELL	130	97¢	$126	0xc4c041…
04-13 07:38:27	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	SELL	326	0¢	$1	0xf80026…
04-12 19:03:09	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	BUY	326	3¢	$10	0xe350c5…
04-08 10:18:35	Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	No	BUY	130	93¢	$121	0x0f3079…
04-04 12:56:59	btc updown 5m 1775307300	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xfd2f1a…
04-02 09:42:35	btc updown 5m 1775122800	Down	BUY	123	90¢	$110	0x36fe53…
04-02 09:33:33	will fidesz kdnp win 100 114 seats in the hungarian national assembly in this election	No	SELL	135	81¢	$110	0x2b8658…
04-01 20:01:21	will fidesz kdnp win 100 114 seats in the hungarian national assembly in this election	No	BUY	116	82¢	$95	0xe90023…
04-01 20:00:57	will fidesz kdnp win 100 114 seats in the hungarian national assembly in this election	No	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x91b992…
04-01 20:00:21	will fidesz kdnp win 100 114 seats in the hungarian national assembly in this election	No	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0xbbf77b…
04-01 07:06:31	highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 14c	Yes	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0xb04fc1…
04-01 07:06:05	highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 14c	Yes	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x0d2d66…
03-31 07:28:43	highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 14c	Yes	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0xed4f56…
03-31 07:28:29	highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 13c	Yes	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0xc69450…
03-31 07:28:21	highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 11c	Yes	BUY	15	14¢	$2	0xcae53e…
03-31 07:28:15	highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 12c	Yes	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x20db9e…
03-31 05:17:43	highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 10c	Yes	SELL	15	4¢	$1	0xb4751f…
03-31 05:17:39	highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 15c	Yes	SELL	13	12¢	$2	0xd90a4d…
03-31 05:17:35	highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 11c	Yes	SELL	10	14¢	$1	0x97c079…
03-31 05:17:27	highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 14c	Yes	SELL	11	15¢	$2	0x2a5c32…
03-31 05:17:21	highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 12c	Yes	SELL	11	17¢	$2	0x5d59d3…
03-31 05:17:07	highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 13c	Yes	SELL	10	23¢	$2	0x7c888d…
03-30 21:24:37	highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 10c	Yes	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0x3621f4…
03-30 21:19:15	highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 15c	Yes	BUY	13	12¢	$1	0xfe241e…
03-30 21:19:03	highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 14c	Yes	BUY	12	13¢	$1	0x9d5d55…
03-30 21:16:31	highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 13c	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x9d4d3e…
03-30 21:16:25	highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 12c	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x1d598a…
03-30 21:15:23	highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 13c	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xabc4b8…
03-30 21:15:15	highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 12c	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xcfc29f…
03-30 21:14:55	highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 11c	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x2a0b94…
03-28 12:05:19	btc updown 5m 1774699200	Down	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xe66896…
03-28 12:04:07	btc updown 5m 1774699200	Down	BUY	4	68¢	$3	0x4b8eeb…
03-28 11:49:31	btc updown 5m 1774698300	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x6bc580…
03-27 21:24:41	highest temperature in atlanta on march 28 2026 70 71f	Yes	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x003a50…
03-27 21:24:15	highest temperature in atlanta on march 28 2026 68 69f	Yes	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0xa6976f…
03-27 21:23:57	highest temperature in atlanta on march 28 2026 66 67f	Yes	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0x85a2b4…
03-27 21:23:23	highest temperature in atlanta on march 28 2026 64 65f	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x6ee18f…
03-27 19:59:37	highest temperature in atlanta on march 28 2026 66 67f	Yes	SELL	6	21¢	$1	0x02d6c1…
03-27 19:55:27	highest temperature in atlanta on march 28 2026 66 67f	Yes	BUY	6	23¢	$1	0x21be0d…
03-11 08:39:41	highest temperature in dallas on march 11 2026 74forhigher	No	SELL	3	31¢	$1	0xbf56dc…
03-10 20:34:11	highest temperature in dallas on march 11 2026 74forhigher	No	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x2c6891…
03-10 18:43:51	btc updown 5m 1773168000	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x9ad0ae…
03-10 18:41:57	btc updown 5m 1773168000	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xe8796e…
02-14 12:04:03	btc updown 5m 1771070400	Down	BUY	109	97¢	$106	0x42eed1…
02-14 11:18:43	btc updown 5m 1771067700	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x250cf2…
02-14 11:13:15	btc updown 5m 1771067700	Down	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x39814a…
02-14 11:09:35	btc updown 5m 1771067400	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x4850d5…
02-12 19:28:13	btc updown 5m 1770924300	Down	SELL	114	92¢	$105	0x8b579f…
02-12 19:27:19	btc updown 5m 1770924300	Down	BUY	115	89¢	$102	0xca2be2…
02-12 19:26:21	btc updown 5m 1770924300	Down	SELL	2	80¢	$1	0x4c4fc4…
02-12 19:24:49	btc updown 5m 1770924300	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xf332de…
02-12 19:10:57	btc updown 5m 1770923400	Up	BUY	16	51¢	$8	0xbb7bb8…
02-12 19:07:51	btc updown 5m 1770923100	Up	BUY	15	27¢	$4	0xd66009…
02-12 18:59:57	btc updown 5m 1770922800	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x85fc39…
02-12 18:57:35	btc updown 5m 1770922500	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x87d7b6…
02-12 18:55:41	btc updown 5m 1770922200	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xffd4aa…
02-12 18:49:57	btc updown 5m 1770921900	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xbe1364…
02-12 18:48:59	btc updown 5m 1770922200	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x061c7e…
02-12 18:45:13	btc updown 5m 1770921900	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xfde388…
02-12 18:39:37	btc updown 5m 1770921600	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x976d7c…
02-12 16:59:11	btc updown 15m 1770915600	Up	BUY	11	53¢	$6	0x956de3…
02-12 16:47:23	btc updown 15m 1770914700	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x79c020…
02-12 16:47:11	btc updown 15m 1770914700	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x5b74f6…