Virtual-Underestimate — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$11

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

187

lifetime

Volume

$2.87K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-08

last 07-28 20:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

81% 100% +$11

Other

11% — —

Politics

8% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
eth updown 5m 1785089100	6	$570	469	469	+0	open	—	07-26 18:10
btc updown 5m 1785268800	2	$249	159	159	+0	open	—	07-28 20:03
Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	2	$247	130	130	+0	open	—	04-16 15:49
will fidesz kdnp win 100 114 seats in the hungarian national assembly in this election	4	$220	135	135	+0	open	—	04-02 09:33
btc updown 5m 1785268500	2	$211	120	120	+0	open	—	07-28 19:57
btc updown 5m 1770924300	4	$210	117	116	+0	open	—	02-12 19:28
btc updown 15m 1770643800	2	$195	116	116	+1	open	—	02-09 13:42
ethereum up or down february 8 9am et	2	$177	120	120	+0	open	—	02-08 14:54
btc updown 5m 1775122800	1	$110	123	0	+123	open	—	04-02 09:42
btc updown 5m 1771070400	1	$106	109	0	+109	open	—	02-14 12:04
btc updown 15m 1770666300	6	$85	54	50	+4	open	—	02-09 20:00
doge updown 5m 1783803900	8	$57	60	5	+55	open	—	07-11 21:09
btc updown 15m 1770891300	2	$55	36	36	+1	open	—	02-12 10:24
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	4	$30	349	349	+0	open	—	04-13 07:38
btc updown 15m 1770528600	4	$27	23	23	+0	open	—	02-08 05:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	1	$25	29	0	+29	Down	+$4	05-13 14:19
btc updown 15m 1770540300	2	$24	22	21	+0	open	—	02-08 08:47
highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 14c	5	$18	25	24	+1	open	—	04-01 07:06
btc updown 5m 1782941700	4	$16	11	11	+0	open	—	07-01 21:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	3	$15	15	5	+10	Down	+$1	05-09 22:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	1	$10	13	0	+13	open	—	05-17 20:34
btc updown 15m 1770562800	9	$10	15	11	+4	open	—	02-08 15:16
btc updown 15m 1770529500	2	$10	20	0	+20	open	—	02-08 05:47
btc updown 5m 1770923400	1	$8	16	0	+16	open	—	02-12 19:10
btc updown 15m 1770889500	2	$8	13	0	+13	open	—	02-12 09:52
btc updown 5m 1774699200	2	$7	4	4	+0	open	—	03-28 12:05
eth updown 15m 1770555600	1	$7	9	0	+9	open	—	02-08 13:02
highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 13c	4	$6	19	10	+9	open	—	03-31 07:28
btc updown 15m 1770915600	1	$6	11	0	+11	open	—	02-12 16:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	3	$6	22	0	+22	open	—	05-17 20:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-28 20:03:50	btc updown 5m 1785268800	Up	SELL	159	94¢	$149	0x6d9a59…
07-28 20:02:14	btc updown 5m 1785268800	Up	BUY	159	63¢	$100	0x112676…
07-28 19:57:46	btc updown 5m 1785268500	Up	SELL	120	92¢	$111	0x1cc9d3…
07-28 19:57:14	btc updown 5m 1785268500	Up	BUY	120	83¢	$100	0x368431…
07-26 18:10:45	eth updown 5m 1785089100	Down	SELL	179	99¢	$177	0x45d3b3…
07-26 18:09:15	eth updown 5m 1785089100	Up	SELL	152	36¢	$54	0x85e97b…
07-26 18:09:07	eth updown 5m 1785089100	Down	BUY	179	56¢	$100	0xa89fd2…
07-26 18:08:54	eth updown 5m 1785089100	Down	SELL	138	28¢	$39	0x2bc370…
07-26 18:08:19	eth updown 5m 1785089100	Up	BUY	152	66¢	$100	0xed2918…
07-26 18:06:43	eth updown 5m 1785089100	Down	BUY	138	72¢	$100	0xcc9034…
07-23 13:05:21	sol updown 5m 1784811900	Down	BUY	8	52¢	$4	0x885be1…
07-23 12:44:51	sol updown 5m 1784810700	Up	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0xc3eef7…
07-23 12:41:13	sol updown 5m 1784810400	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xb9323e…
07-19 14:08:36	doge updown 5m 1784469900	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xd555d3…
07-19 13:58:03	doge updown 5m 1784469600	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x7f48d3…
07-17 19:27:28	doge updown 5m 1784316300	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x6acd19…
07-11 21:09:56	doge updown 5m 1783803900	Up	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0x754752…
07-11 21:09:47	doge updown 5m 1783803900	Down	BUY	26	97¢	$25	0x1417f3…
07-11 21:08:58	doge updown 5m 1783803900	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x2623b1…
07-11 21:08:19	doge updown 5m 1783803900	Down	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x40254e…
07-11 21:07:55	doge updown 5m 1783803900	Down	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0x7942e5…
07-11 21:07:46	doge updown 5m 1783803900	Up	SELL	3	51¢	$2	0x583b31…
07-11 21:07:20	doge updown 5m 1783803900	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x097a72…
07-11 21:06:47	doge updown 5m 1783803900	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x0637a5…
07-11 18:54:58	doge updown 5m 1783796100	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x57d831…
07-11 18:54:52	doge updown 5m 1783796100	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x3562cc…
07-11 14:02:16	xrp updown 5m 1783778400	Up	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x557ee5…
07-11 14:01:46	xrp updown 5m 1783778400	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x429c43…
07-01 21:51:25	doge updown 5m 1782942600	Up	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x45588f…
07-01 21:41:52	btc updown 5m 1782942000	Up	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xb42d20…
07-01 21:41:23	btc updown 5m 1782942000	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xdda8ed…
07-01 21:39:58	btc updown 5m 1782941700	Down	SELL	6	89¢	$5	0x102141…
07-01 21:38:53	btc updown 5m 1782941700	Up	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x14f2f1…
07-01 21:38:16	btc updown 5m 1782941700	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x66b87a…
07-01 21:36:47	btc updown 5m 1782941700	Down	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0x93c9f4…
06-04 21:05:31	btc updown 5m 1780607100	Up	SELL	2	57¢	$1	0x9bd1e1…
06-04 21:04:42	btc updown 5m 1780607100	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xf46611…
05-17 20:44:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xaf33d7…
05-17 20:34:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x8a3451…
05-17 20:25:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x7e5e79…
05-17 20:18:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x8da340…
05-17 20:14:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x4676de…
05-17 20:14:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x64dbd1…
05-17 20:12:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x40d8f0…
05-17 20:09:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xd42168…
05-17 20:06:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x53c653…
05-16 08:54:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x291acb…
05-16 08:54:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	SELL	1	21¢	$0	0x885080…
05-16 08:53:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x747721…
05-16 08:50:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x1a4ef8…
05-16 08:49:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xf7f6c3…
05-13 20:54:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	SELL	2	91¢	$1	0xa32c02…
05-13 20:52:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xf5e623…
05-13 20:38:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	SELL	4	61¢	$2	0x5f8671…
05-13 20:37:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x7a41c2…
05-13 17:57:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xc3f978…
05-13 17:52:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xaabd40…
05-13 17:46:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xbe00b6…
05-13 14:19:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	29	86¢	$25	0xb320f9…
05-09 22:24:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xa40be9…
05-09 22:24:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	SELL	5	51¢	$3	0x02397e…
05-09 22:22:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x6e6f8f…
05-09 19:50:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xb9f877…
05-05 18:59:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0x787c26…
05-05 18:56:08	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x3db655…
04-16 15:49:22	Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	No	SELL	130	97¢	$126	0xc4c041…
04-13 07:38:27	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	SELL	326	0¢	$1	0xf80026…
04-12 19:03:09	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	BUY	326	3¢	$10	0xe350c5…
04-08 10:18:35	Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	No	BUY	130	93¢	$121	0x0f3079…
04-04 12:56:59	btc updown 5m 1775307300	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xfd2f1a…
04-02 09:42:35	btc updown 5m 1775122800	Down	BUY	123	90¢	$110	0x36fe53…
04-02 09:33:33	will fidesz kdnp win 100 114 seats in the hungarian national assembly in this election	No	SELL	135	81¢	$110	0x2b8658…
04-01 20:01:21	will fidesz kdnp win 100 114 seats in the hungarian national assembly in this election	No	BUY	116	82¢	$95	0xe90023…
04-01 20:00:57	will fidesz kdnp win 100 114 seats in the hungarian national assembly in this election	No	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x91b992…
04-01 20:00:21	will fidesz kdnp win 100 114 seats in the hungarian national assembly in this election	No	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0xbbf77b…
04-01 07:06:31	highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 14c	Yes	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0xb04fc1…
04-01 07:06:05	highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 14c	Yes	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x0d2d66…
03-31 07:28:43	highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 14c	Yes	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0xed4f56…
03-31 07:28:29	highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 13c	Yes	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0xc69450…
03-31 07:28:21	highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 11c	Yes	BUY	15	14¢	$2	0xcae53e…
03-31 07:28:15	highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 12c	Yes	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x20db9e…
03-31 05:17:43	highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 10c	Yes	SELL	15	4¢	$1	0xb4751f…
03-31 05:17:39	highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 15c	Yes	SELL	13	12¢	$2	0xd90a4d…
03-31 05:17:35	highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 11c	Yes	SELL	10	14¢	$1	0x97c079…
03-31 05:17:27	highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 14c	Yes	SELL	11	15¢	$2	0x2a5c32…
03-31 05:17:21	highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 12c	Yes	SELL	11	17¢	$2	0x5d59d3…
03-31 05:17:07	highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 13c	Yes	SELL	10	23¢	$2	0x7c888d…
03-30 21:24:37	highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 10c	Yes	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0x3621f4…
03-30 21:19:15	highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 15c	Yes	BUY	13	12¢	$1	0xfe241e…
03-30 21:19:03	highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 14c	Yes	BUY	12	13¢	$1	0x9d5d55…
03-30 21:16:31	highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 13c	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x9d4d3e…
03-30 21:16:25	highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 12c	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x1d598a…
03-30 21:15:23	highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 13c	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xabc4b8…
03-30 21:15:15	highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 12c	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xcfc29f…
03-30 21:14:55	highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 11c	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x2a0b94…
03-28 12:05:19	btc updown 5m 1774699200	Down	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xe66896…
03-28 12:04:07	btc updown 5m 1774699200	Down	BUY	4	68¢	$3	0x4b8eeb…
03-28 11:49:31	btc updown 5m 1774698300	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x6bc580…
03-27 21:24:41	highest temperature in atlanta on march 28 2026 70 71f	Yes	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x003a50…
03-27 21:24:15	highest temperature in atlanta on march 28 2026 68 69f	Yes	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0xa6976f…