Immense-Manipulation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.04K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

61.8%

Resolved

6,578

Trades

12,076

lifetime

Volume

$23.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-09

last 10-03 21:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 200 days

Categories

Crypto

98% 45% -$812

Politics

2% 7% -$251

Other

0% 100% +$19

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 174 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-12 19:00 UTC	4	$108	95	95	+0	Up	-$4	07-12 19:04
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 08:30 UTC	13	$88	60	60	+0	Down	+$11	09-30 08:33
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-09 16:50 UTC	3	$85	60	60	+0	Down	+$34	03-09 16:55
israel strikes iran by january 16 2026 418	2	$75	235	235	+0	No	-$5	01-11 06:59
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 08:30 UTC	13	$74	55	55	+0	Down	+$9	09-30 08:38
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	1	$68	1,269	0	+1,269	No	-$68	02-27 16:41
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31?	2	$63	350	350	+0	No	-$7	01-11 16:46
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	2	$53	282	0	+282	No	-$53	01-25 15:07
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 08:45 UTC	5	$42	51	51	+1	Up	+$2	02-25 08:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 08:40 UTC	4	$41	29	29	+0	Up	+$11	02-25 08:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-09 12:10 UTC	2	$38	30	30	+0	Up	+$21	03-09 12:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 02:30 UTC	4	$38	45	17	+28	Down	-$4	02-25 02:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-24 20:55 UTC	5	$37	34	34	+1	Up	+$5	02-24 20:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 07:25 UTC	4	$35	37	37	+1	Up	+$7	02-25 07:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 03:55 UTC	3	$34	35	20	+15	Down	+$6	02-25 04:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 11:50 UTC	3	$33	36	19	+17	Up	+$5	02-25 11:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 05:00 UTC	4	$32	45	45	+0	Up	+$5	02-25 05:01
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-24 22:10 UTC	3	$32	38	18	+20	Up	+$4	02-24 22:16
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-24 20:30 UTC	4	$32	41	40	+1	Up	+$4	02-24 20:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-24 22:05 UTC	4	$32	36	35	+1	Down	+$4	02-24 22:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 02:55 UTC	3	$32	36	18	+19	Down	+$4	02-25 03:01
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-24 19:50 UTC	3	$32	35	18	+18	Down	+$4	02-24 19:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-24 19:05 UTC	4	$31	38	37	+1	Up	+$3	02-24 19:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 09:00 UTC	3	$31	30	17	+13	Up	+$3	02-25 09:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-24 21:30 UTC	3	$30	35	21	+14	Down	+$11	02-24 21:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 05:05 UTC	4	$30	39	38	+0	Up	+$6	02-25 05:07
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 12:05 UTC	3	$30	39	33	+5	Up	+$18	02-25 12:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-24 22:00 UTC	3	$30	34	20	+14	Up	+$10	02-24 22:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-24 00:55 UTC	4	$29	38	35	+3	Down	+$1	02-24 01:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 03:00 UTC	3	$29	32	15	+16	Down	+$1	02-25 03:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-03 21:03:02	XRP Up or Down - October 3, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xbc72a8…
10-03 21:02:50	Solana Up or Down - October 3, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0x9ed56c…
10-03 21:02:04	Solana Up or Down - October 3, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0xd41c50…
10-03 20:46:10	Ethereum Up or Down - October 3, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0xfc796c…
10-03 20:45:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x36734b…
10-03 20:32:13	XRP Up or Down - October 3, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x8b716e…
10-03 20:31:11	Ethereum Up or Down - October 3, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0x899c6a…
10-03 20:30:34	Solana Up or Down - October 3, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x08dba0…
10-03 20:30:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xc4aa0d…
10-03 20:16:58	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-03 20:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x4c4db2…
10-03 20:15:17	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-03 20:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x2e210f…
10-03 20:01:07	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-03 20:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0xbfbcf9…
10-03 20:00:25	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-03 20:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xe4d2ae…
10-03 19:47:13	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-03 19:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x3a0ef0…
10-03 19:47:05	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-03 19:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xda1741…
10-03 19:45:13	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-03 19:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0xae521f…
10-03 19:32:28	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-03 19:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xe89d6f…
10-03 19:31:42	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-03 19:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x0ab25f…
10-03 19:16:27	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-03 19:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x7d87b0…
10-03 19:16:06	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-03 19:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x21216a…
10-03 19:15:52	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-03 19:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x7c9064…
10-03 19:15:19	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-03 19:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x202f92…
10-03 19:01:00	XRP Up or Down - October 3, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x9f108d…
10-03 19:00:45	Ethereum Up or Down - October 3, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xcf6688…
10-03 19:00:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xb14da6…
10-03 18:46:03	Solana Up or Down - October 3, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	41¢	$1	0x3f9a1c…
10-03 18:45:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xd71c86…
10-03 18:45:14	XRP Up or Down - October 3, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xe6fef6…
10-03 18:34:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x8d8bbc…
10-03 18:33:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xba4481…
10-03 18:30:36	XRP Up or Down - October 3, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x805377…
10-03 18:30:35	Solana Up or Down - October 3, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x58320e…
10-03 18:16:38	Solana Up or Down - October 3, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0xf6143a…
10-03 18:16:15	Ethereum Up or Down - October 3, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0xd8efa1…
10-03 18:15:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x309202…
10-03 18:01:06	XRP Up or Down - October 3, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x0973df…
10-03 18:01:02	Solana Up or Down - October 3, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xc32cb6…
10-03 17:55:08	Ethereum Up or Down - October 3, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Up	SELL	5	88¢	$4	0xdd863b…
10-03 17:45:47	Ethereum Up or Down - October 3, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xdc34d9…
10-03 17:33:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	SELL	5	84¢	$4	0xbf9e72…
10-03 17:32:11	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-03 17:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xb628d0…
10-03 17:31:21	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-03 17:30 UTC	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x3b9b33…
10-03 17:31:20	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-03 17:30 UTC	Down	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x1bfb31…
10-03 17:30:27	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-03 17:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xf28ced…
10-03 17:16:26	Solana Up or Down - October 3, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x5049c4…
10-03 17:16:26	Solana Up or Down - October 3, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x2af514…
10-03 17:16:12	Ethereum Up or Down - October 3, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x310aa7…
10-03 17:16:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x0cab57…
10-03 17:01:15	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-03 17:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xaa83aa…
10-03 17:01:12	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-03 17:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x108097…
10-03 17:00:47	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-03 17:00 UTC	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x9105b7…
10-03 17:00:12	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-03 17:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xd5185d…
10-02 14:53:14	XRP Up or Down - October 2, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x4297af…
10-02 14:46:08	XRP Up or Down - October 2, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xb2a9ee…
10-02 14:45:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xf8f1fe…
10-02 14:45:21	Solana Up or Down - October 2, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xe38e5a…
10-02 14:45:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xe5fceb…
10-02 14:38:47	XRP Up or Down - October 2, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	67¢	$4	0x2766af…
10-02 14:28:53	XRP Up or Down - October 2, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	7	33¢	$2	0x5027e3…
10-02 14:15:39	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x30a40f…
10-02 14:15:14	Solana Up or Down - October 2, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xa18206…
10-02 14:00:53	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x3ae3fe…
10-02 14:00:38	Solana Up or Down - October 2, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x0c4148…
10-02 14:00:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x9486f1…
10-02 13:46:41	XRP Up or Down - October 2, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xa214b0…
10-02 13:46:33	Solana Up or Down - October 2, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x6332d8…
10-02 13:45:57	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x8f7d87…
10-02 13:16:36	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x5a6a56…
10-02 13:16:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xec6f90…
10-02 13:01:38	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x47583e…
10-02 13:00:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xd35f50…
10-02 13:00:41	XRP Up or Down - October 2, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x466e43…
10-02 12:48:20	XRP Up or Down - October 2, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x2fdbab…
10-02 12:47:05	Solana Up or Down - October 2, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x194102…
10-02 12:45:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x3ddfd6…
10-02 12:30:21	XRP Up or Down - October 2, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x861631…
10-02 12:30:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x3e4239…
10-02 12:17:00	Solana Up or Down - October 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0xbd89ea…
10-02 12:16:14	XRP Up or Down - October 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x79601e…
10-02 12:15:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xca58e7…
10-02 12:00:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0xcbb356…
10-02 11:45:12	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x276311…
10-02 11:45:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x3233b6…
10-02 11:32:05	XRP Up or Down - October 2, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x4d96af…
10-02 11:31:06	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x8f9ff5…
10-02 11:31:06	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	0	52¢	$0	0x717abd…
10-02 11:30:39	Solana Up or Down - October 2, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x91a3e6…
10-02 11:17:02	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x57051b…
10-02 11:16:33	XRP Up or Down - October 2, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x9a6d53…
10-02 11:15:17	Solana Up or Down - October 2, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xc912d9…
10-02 11:02:02	Solana Up or Down - October 2, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xec3a43…
10-02 11:01:20	XRP Up or Down - October 2, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x992178…
10-02 11:00:15	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x41db61…
10-02 10:47:21	Solana Up or Down - October 2, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x600b34…
10-02 10:46:02	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x15900b…
10-02 10:45:15	XRP Up or Down - October 2, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xd69f42…
10-02 10:30:21	XRP Up or Down - October 2, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x1463f6…
10-02 10:30:17	XRP Up or Down - October 2, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	28¢	$0	0x2a6743…
10-02 10:30:11	Solana Up or Down - October 2, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xab018d…
10-02 10:30:06	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x2d6b9e…