Critical-Dibble — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$10

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$8.54K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$150

Open exposure

$53

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 06-05 06:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

92% — —

Politics

3% 100% +$4

Sports

2% 100% +$6

Tech

2% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes		-41	$-28	76¢	$-31	$-3	05-28 01:38
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor?	Yes		-25	$-22	90¢	$-23	$-1	06-05 06:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will keegan bradley win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$3.0K	1,511	1,511	+0	open	—	04-11 14:00
will sahith theegala win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$2.9K	1,478	1,478	+0	open	—	04-07 08:18
will matt fitzpatrick win the 2026 masters tournament	1	$1.5K	1,507	0	+1,507	open	—	04-11 14:00
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	1	$103	118	0	+118	open	—	06-05 06:43
Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI?	2	$66	35	35	+0	open	—	05-05 02:56
will henrique gouveia e melo win the 2026 portugal presidential election	2	$58	30	30	+0	open	—	01-24 01:59
gpt 5pt6 released by june 5 2026	2	$56	29	29	+0	open	—	06-05 06:42
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026?	2	$53	27	27	+0	open	—	02-25 03:38
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	2	$51	26	26	+0	open	—	04-27 06:53
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	2	$37	19	19	+0	open	—	04-27 06:53
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league?	2	$36	20	20	+0	open	—	04-27 06:53
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	1	$35	0	35	-35	open	—	04-16 02:42
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?	2	$34	18	18	+0	open	—	05-15 07:11
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?	2	$34	33	33	+0	open	—	05-20 02:39
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	2	$31	24	24	+0	open	—	04-07 08:18
will norway win the most medals in the 2026 winter olympics	2	$31	18	18	+0	open	—	02-22 13:27
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	2	$29	32	32	+0	open	—	05-15 05:48
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	1	$28	0	41	-41	open	—	05-28 01:38
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	1	$28	30	0	+30	open	—	03-09 12:42
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?	1	$24	27	0	+27	open	—	05-15 07:14
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?	2	$24	24	24	+0	open	—	05-20 02:39
maduro out by january 31 2026 318	1	$23	47	0	+47	open	—	01-03 07:52
will mrbeast hit 465 million subscribers by january 31 316 216 943	1	$22	24	0	+24	open	—	01-31 07:01
israel x hamas ceasefire cancelled by march 31 2026 824	1	$22	22	0	+22	open	—	03-25 07:50
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor?	1	$22	0	25	-25	open	—	06-05 06:43
israel strike on yemen by march 31 2026	2	$21	30	30	+0	open	—	03-31 08:40
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	1	$21	27	0	+27	Yes	+$6	04-02 02:05
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?	1	$21	25	0	+25	open	—	04-27 06:54
Over $16M committed to the Space public sale?	1	$20	23	0	+23	open	—	01-12 08:27
will tommy fleetwood win the 2026 masters tournament	1	$20	21	0	+21	open	—	03-31 08:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-05 06:43:45	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	118	87¢	$103	0x9f61ab…
06-05 06:43:07	Will SpaceX acquire Cursor?	Yes	SELL	25	86¢	$22	0x62ac1c…
06-05 06:42:58	gpt 5pt6 released by june 5 2026	No	SELL	29	97¢	$29	0x63b3a7…
05-28 01:39:31	GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?	No	BUY	29	92¢	$27	0x446bd7…
05-28 01:38:53	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	41	69¢	$28	0x040f6e…
05-20 02:39:43	Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?	Yes	SELL	33	35¢	$12	0x49163b…
05-20 02:39:36	Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?	Yes	SELL	24	58¢	$14	0xcfec3b…
05-15 07:14:58	Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?	No	BUY	27	88¢	$24	0x383432…
05-15 07:11:42	Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?	Yes	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0x7c6e2e…
05-15 05:48:35	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	SELL	32	17¢	$5	0xe2ee30…
05-05 02:57:06	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	BUY	32	75¢	$24	0xbee6a2…
05-05 02:56:58	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	17	76¢	$13	0xaae0c9…
05-05 02:56:18	Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	35	99¢	$35	0x5a89d3…
04-27 06:56:42	Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?	Yes	BUY	18	89¢	$16	0xd7f09a…
04-27 06:56:22	Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?	Yes	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0xe12d55…
04-27 06:56:14	Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?	Yes	BUY	33	66¢	$22	0x8ebe1f…
04-27 06:55:58	Will Wolves finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0xc7ce03…
04-27 06:54:34	Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?	Yes	BUY	25	85¢	$21	0xa98f62…
04-27 06:53:58	Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0xfd280c…
04-27 06:53:46	Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league?	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x542d47…
04-27 06:53:36	Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	No	SELL	19	97¢	$18	0x36a311…
04-27 06:53:26	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	9¢	$1	0xa3d71b…
04-16 02:43:06	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	89¢	$14	0x2493e0…
04-16 02:42:38	Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	35	100¢	$35	0xc7ee52…
04-13 08:29:51	Will Erling Haaland be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?	Yes	BUY	22	79¢	$17	0xaa5211…
04-13 08:29:23	Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0xef202b…
04-11 14:01:03	will rory mcilroy win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	25	71¢	$18	0x06ae27…
04-11 14:00:53	will matt fitzpatrick win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	1,507	100¢	$1,503	0xb1f25c…
04-11 14:00:19	will keegan bradley win the 2026 masters tournament	No	SELL	1,511	100¢	$1,509	0x5634f6…
04-07 08:19:29	will keegan bradley win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	1,511	100¢	$1,505	0x2be1b6…
04-07 08:18:57	will sahith theegala win the 2026 masters tournament	No	SELL	1,478	100¢	$1,476	0xa5aaf1…
04-07 08:18:47	Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	No	SELL	24	53¢	$13	0x916038…
04-02 02:06:11	will sahith theegala win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	1,478	100¢	$1,470	0xea1fb9…
04-02 02:05:45	Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	Yes	BUY	27	77¢	$21	0x39005c…
03-31 08:42:01	will tommy fleetwood win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xa79515…
03-31 08:40:25	israel strike on yemen by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	30	4¢	$1	0x980fc4…
03-28 05:27:03	israel strike on yemen by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	30	67¢	$20	0xcce486…
03-25 07:50:49	highest temperature in nyc on march 25 2026 48 49f	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0xe5551b…
03-25 07:50:25	Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	No	BUY	24	76¢	$18	0x6aacbc…
03-25 07:50:15	israel x hamas ceasefire cancelled by march 31 2026 824	No	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0x132952…
03-13 05:47:41	highest temperature in shanghai on march 13 2026 15c	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x3ade7d…
03-13 05:46:07	will american girls harry styles be the 1 song on us spotify this week	Yes	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0x61568c…
03-09 12:42:43	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	No	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0x174b15…
02-25 03:38:40	us anti cartel strikeoperation on foreign soil by february 28 2026	No	BUY	14	96¢	$13	0x3c93a6…
02-25 03:38:08	Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026?	No	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0x4ecc28…
02-22 13:30:34	Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	No	BUY	19	98¢	$19	0x66c341…
02-22 13:30:04	Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026?	No	BUY	27	95¢	$26	0x9dcdea…
02-22 13:27:54	will norway win the most medals in the 2026 winter olympics	Yes	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x5ca859…
02-10 01:56:31	Superform FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	17	99¢	$16	0x71c6f7…
02-06 12:24:11	will norway win the most medals in the 2026 winter olympics	Yes	BUY	18	74¢	$13	0x77f8fb…
02-06 12:23:35	Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league?	Yes	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x80d3e7…
01-31 07:01:58	will mrbeast hit 465 million subscribers by january 31 316 216 943	Yes	BUY	24	91¢	$22	0x02679a…
01-24 02:00:20	Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	35	88¢	$31	0x8ba644…
01-24 01:59:36	will henrique gouveia e melo win the 2026 portugal presidential election	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x5688e0…
01-12 08:27:54	Over $16M committed to the Space public sale?	Yes	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0x1487c5…
01-05 08:06:11	will henrique gouveia e melo win the 2026 portugal presidential election	No	BUY	30	95¢	$28	0xa1ec8b…
01-03 07:52:27	maduro out by january 31 2026 318	Yes	BUY	47	49¢	$23	0xc6082b…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	35	$123.4K	3,155	06-09 06:03
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	32	$6.60K	1,604	06-04 02:03
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	30	$35.6K	3,306	06-01 05:20
(anonymous) 0x9474…5091	30	$3.47K	1,983	06-05 06:43
Fragrant-Dandelion 0x1408…b4f8	29	$12.9K	2,759	05-07 03:32
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	28	$8.81K	381	06-09 02:46
Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595	27	$51.5K	5,163	06-09 20:34
Vacant-Challenge 0x3078…0389	23	$11.3K	1,365	06-09 16:55