Naive-Agreement — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$150

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

83.3%

Resolved

269

Trades

1,636

lifetime

Volume

$6.20K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-22

last 06-05 14:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 10 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 67% $-150

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

32 active days in 12wk • peak 385 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	1	$40	42	0	+42	Down	+$2	05-05 04:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	1	$40	40	0	+40	Up	+$0	05-05 05:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	1	$40	40	0	+40	Up	+$0	05-05 03:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	1	$40	40	0	+40	Up	+$0	05-05 03:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	1	$40	40	0	+40	Down	$-40	05-05 06:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	1	$40	40	0	+40	Down	+$0	05-05 01:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	1	$40	40	0	+40	Up	+$0	05-05 04:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	1	$40	40	0	+40	Up	+$0	05-05 03:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	1	$40	40	0	+40	Down	+$0	05-05 07:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	1	$40	40	0	+40	Down	+$0	05-05 06:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	1	$40	40	0	+40	Up	+$0	05-05 05:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	1	$40	40	0	+40	Down	+$0	05-05 04:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	1	$40	40	0	+40	Up	+$0	05-05 06:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	1	$39	40	0	+40	Up	+$1	05-05 03:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	1	$39	43	0	+43	Up	+$4	05-05 01:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	4	$30	33	0	+33	Up	+$3	05-11 01:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	2	$30	33	0	+33	Up	$-30	05-10 22:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	2	$30	33	0	+33	Down	$-30	05-11 01:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	3	$30	33	0	+33	Up	+$3	05-10 21:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	1	$29	33	0	+33	Up	+$4	05-11 01:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	1	$29	33	0	+33	Down	+$4	05-11 01:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	1	$29	33	0	+33	Up	+$4	05-10 23:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	1	$28	33	0	+33	Down	+$5	05-11 01:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	1	$28	33	0	+33	Down	+$5	05-11 02:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	1	$28	33	0	+33	Up	$-28	05-11 02:39
btc updown 5m 1776954300	8	$28	85	52	+33	open	—	04-23 14:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	1	$28	33	0	+33	Down	+$5	05-10 23:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	1	$27	33	0	+33	Up	$-27	05-10 23:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	1	$24	32	0	+32	Up	+$8	05-12 22:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	1	$24	25	0	+25	open	—	05-04 15:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-05 14:39:40	eth updown 5m 1780670100	Down	BUY	13	53¢	$7	0xf3bbef…
06-04 17:14:51	eth updown 5m 1780593000	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xd2334d…
06-04 09:54:54	eth updown 5m 1780566600	Down	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x54857b…
06-04 08:24:54	eth updown 5m 1780561200	Up	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x065fa8…
06-04 07:44:51	eth updown 5m 1780558800	Up	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x5994c6…
06-04 07:24:51	eth updown 5m 1780557600	Down	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x71cfd4…
06-04 07:14:57	eth updown 5m 1780557000	Down	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0xad054d…
06-04 05:24:51	eth updown 5m 1780550400	Down	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x47e6e8…
06-04 04:44:54	eth updown 5m 1780548000	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x415744…
06-04 03:54:51	eth updown 5m 1780545000	Up	BUY	9	67¢	$6	0x8f3c99…
06-04 03:44:51	eth updown 5m 1780544400	Up	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x24e0f0…
06-04 00:54:54	eth updown 5m 1780534200	Down	BUY	9	67¢	$6	0x63592d…
06-04 00:14:51	eth updown 5m 1780531800	Up	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x828ddd…
06-03 23:44:51	eth updown 5m 1780530000	Up	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x623fd7…
06-03 21:24:54	eth updown 5m 1780521600	Up	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x46ba46…
06-03 19:04:52	Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x468a2f…
06-03 16:14:58	Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x812a5d…
06-03 14:24:51	Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x55c33b…
06-03 12:04:50	Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x9ca817…
06-03 11:54:50	Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x4b4a6b…
06-03 09:04:51	Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x1a73c5…
06-03 07:14:52	Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0xf1bac3…
06-03 06:14:52	Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0xaa1f44…
06-03 05:14:52	Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x995a3d…
06-03 03:04:51	Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	9	66¢	$6	0xae1874…
06-02 07:59:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x4ed569…
06-02 06:19:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Up	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x8b5f83…
06-02 04:39:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Down	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x13346a…
06-02 00:44:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x961db9…
06-02 00:34:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xe5be47…
06-02 00:14:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xd77f21…
06-01 23:44:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xb0a26d…
06-01 23:14:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x1e41fd…
06-01 22:54:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x3bc79f…
06-01 22:24:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xf9c3c1…
06-01 16:19:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xa911ff…
06-01 14:49:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0xf7500f…
06-01 14:39:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x17f0ef…
06-01 14:19:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x367f7f…
06-01 13:39:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x482d6d…
06-01 13:29:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x2a0c4d…
06-01 13:09:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x6d5361…
06-01 11:39:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x30c495…
06-01 11:29:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xdb9d71…
06-01 10:39:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x602f82…
06-01 10:29:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0xbe8c3f…
06-01 09:59:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x60cd14…
06-01 09:29:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x285c11…
06-01 08:09:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xfde91c…
06-01 07:59:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x911a30…
06-01 07:29:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xf9a299…
06-01 07:19:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x51c73d…
06-01 06:59:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x5c08e1…
06-01 05:39:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Down	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x950179…
06-01 04:29:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x95357e…
06-01 03:59:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x173590…
06-01 03:29:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x183a04…
06-01 03:19:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x4876dc…
06-01 02:59:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x60b677…
06-01 02:49:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x66197e…
06-01 02:29:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x5d8b29…
06-01 01:29:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xd78ca7…
05-31 23:59:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x4c332c…
05-31 23:29:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x973b98…
05-31 22:59:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x8aca14…
05-31 22:19:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x52631e…
05-31 21:54:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x13acab…
05-31 21:19:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x534cf4…
05-31 20:49:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x459b73…
05-31 20:39:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x4713b5…
05-31 19:44:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xcf68da…
05-31 19:04:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x7f241c…
05-31 18:44:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x26c158…
05-31 18:14:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xd83da4…
05-31 17:44:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xefbeda…
05-31 15:34:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x3eff41…
05-31 13:54:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x222aa9…
05-31 13:44:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x76466f…
05-31 11:54:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x020839…
05-31 11:14:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x1ed30f…
05-31 10:44:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x758bfd…
05-31 10:04:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xe79f50…
05-31 09:44:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0xad2b03…
05-31 09:14:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xafda70…
05-31 06:44:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0xcdbebb…
05-31 05:34:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x5993e1…
05-31 04:44:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0xd3d1a2…
05-31 03:34:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x36f137…
05-31 00:14:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x59c28c…
05-30 23:44:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xcfa318…
05-30 23:34:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x4023c0…
05-30 22:44:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x00564b…
05-30 22:34:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x603f8b…
05-30 22:24:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0xf56d0b…
05-30 22:14:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xd62ab0…
05-30 21:54:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x1105a9…
05-30 21:44:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x75f291…
05-30 21:34:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x35238b…
05-30 21:14:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xa27869…
05-30 18:04:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x4b9bcb…