Light-Fava — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$280

Unrealized P&L

-$20

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.16K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

$58

1 position

First seen

2026-02-03

last 07-03 21:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

34% 0% $-280

Other

26% — —

Tech

22% — —

Crypto

18% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026?	Yes		-3,141	$-38	2¢	$-58	$-20	07-03 21:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will claude 5 be released by february 14 2026 449	4	$214	230	230	+0	open	—	02-06 01:46
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	1	$200	476	0	+476	Yes	$-200	02-05 00:27
btc updown 15m 1770165900	19	$144	335	79	+256	open	—	02-04 00:57
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	7	$127	38,748	20	+38,728	open	—	02-03 22:21
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	1	$80	143	0	+143	Yes	$-80	02-04 22:12
iran leadership change by march 31	2	$68	160	80	+80	open	—	03-13 23:44
jesus christ return before 2027 odds 5 monday night 12 1 am	1	$50	202	0	+202	open	—	02-10 20:38
will apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	3	$38	80	0	+80	open	—	02-04 22:29
Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026?	1	$38	0	3,141	-3,141	open	—	07-03 21:43
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	2	$34	71	36	+36	open	—	02-18 16:32
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	3	$22	182	182	+0	open	—	02-06 11:05
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	4	$20	330	0	+330	open	—	04-14 10:59
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic	2	$20	55	0	+55	open	—	05-29 16:47
btc updown 15m 1770245100	1	$20	33	0	+33	open	—	02-04 22:53
btc updown 15m 1770158700	7	$20	500	0	+500	open	—	02-03 22:57
btc updown 5m 1776349800	2	$15	42	0	+42	open	—	04-16 14:31
will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	4	$14	100	0	+100	open	—	02-06 10:51
fifwc mex rsa 2026 06 11 team total home 2pt5	3	$12	37	0	+37	open	—	06-11 20:58
us x iran nuclear talks resume by march 31	1	$10	125	0	+125	open	—	02-05 00:18
btc updown 15m 1770166800	1	$8	8	0	+8	open	—	02-04 01:06
will drake perform during the super bowl lx halftime show	2	$3	20	20	+0	open	—	02-03 19:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-03 21:43:20	Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,141	1¢	$38	0xaf1c48…
06-11 20:58:40	fifwc mex rsa 2026 06 11 team total home 2pt5	Over	BUY	17	19¢	$3	0xd801b1…
06-11 20:44:15	fifwc mex rsa 2026 06 11 team total home 2pt5	Over	BUY	1	44¢	$0	0x697434…
06-11 20:44:15	fifwc mex rsa 2026 06 11 team total home 2pt5	Over	BUY	19	44¢	$8	0x05ed96…
05-29 16:47:16	Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic	Joao Fonseca	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0x9cc475…
05-29 16:42:20	Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic	Joao Fonseca	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0xfbec88…
04-16 14:31:20	btc updown 5m 1776349800	Down	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0xe6ef66…
04-16 14:30:30	btc updown 5m 1776349800	Down	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x0f37ce…
04-14 10:59:13	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	6¢	$0	0xdafdec…
04-14 07:28:19	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x673925…
04-14 05:34:51	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	307	6¢	$19	0x4516a6…
04-13 22:47:07	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	6¢	$1	0xa1e255…
03-13 23:44:13	iran leadership change by march 31	Yes	SELL	80	35¢	$28	0xbe7f38…
03-10 16:28:09	iran leadership change by march 31	Yes	BUY	160	25¢	$40	0x56e5f6…
02-18 16:32:14	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	Yes	SELL	36	40¢	$14	0x258a65…
02-10 20:38:29	jesus christ return before 2027 odds 5 monday night 12 1 am	Yes	BUY	202	25¢	$50	0x9b64b9…
02-06 11:05:07	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	SELL	91	5¢	$5	0x54215d…
02-06 10:51:55	will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	Yes	BUY	40	14¢	$6	0xe9d4db…
02-06 02:59:23	will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	Yes	BUY	12	14¢	$2	0xc8972e…
02-06 02:05:57	will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	Yes	BUY	25	14¢	$4	0x77b042…
02-06 01:58:11	will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	Yes	BUY	23	14¢	$3	0xa2441a…
02-06 01:46:01	will claude 5 be released by february 14 2026 449	Yes	SELL	230	16¢	$37	0x8f0b0f…
02-05 19:00:43	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	SELL	91	8¢	$7	0xe0d5c5…
02-05 03:37:37	will claude 5 be released by february 14 2026 449	Yes	BUY	140	75¢	$105	0x394046…
02-05 00:27:43	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	No	BUY	476	42¢	$200	0xe8a612…
02-05 00:18:03	us x iran nuclear talks resume by march 31	No	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0x9346f7…
02-04 22:53:01	btc updown 15m 1770245100	Up	BUY	33	60¢	$20	0x47025a…
02-04 22:50:31	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	Yes	BUY	71	28¢	$20	0x375e6d…
02-04 22:29:31	will apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	No	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0x53fe2c…
02-04 22:28:47	will apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	No	BUY	38	48¢	$18	0xc717ec…
02-04 22:25:19	will apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	No	BUY	38	48¢	$18	0x3547d4…
02-04 22:17:51	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	BUY	182	5¢	$10	0x7bbd2f…
02-04 22:12:01	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	BUY	143	56¢	$80	0x634fb7…
02-04 21:22:59	will claude 5 be released by february 14 2026 449	Yes	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x798606…
02-04 16:24:59	will claude 5 be released by february 14 2026 449	Yes	BUY	70	86¢	$60	0x2f78ad…
02-04 01:06:38	btc updown 15m 1770166800	Up	BUY	8	94¢	$8	0x1acb1a…
02-04 00:57:42	btc updown 15m 1770165900	Up	BUY	172	4¢	$7	0xd22966…
02-04 00:57:42	btc updown 15m 1770165900	Up	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x889001…
02-04 00:57:42	btc updown 15m 1770165900	Up	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x574624…
02-04 00:57:40	btc updown 15m 1770165900	Up	BUY	6	4¢	$0	0x82e3f4…
02-04 00:57:40	btc updown 15m 1770165900	Up	BUY	9	4¢	$0	0x1580ef…
02-04 00:57:40	btc updown 15m 1770165900	Up	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x0c6a09…
02-04 00:54:32	btc updown 15m 1770165900	Up	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0xb3d319…
02-04 00:52:20	btc updown 15m 1770165900	Up	SELL	7	70¢	$5	0xd3b376…
02-04 00:52:20	btc updown 15m 1770165900	Up	SELL	2	70¢	$2	0x7fa642…
02-04 00:52:20	btc updown 15m 1770165900	Up	SELL	0	70¢	$0	0x650461…
02-04 00:51:34	btc updown 15m 1770165900	Up	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x18148c…
02-04 00:50:28	btc updown 15m 1770165900	Up	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0xb026b7…
02-04 00:49:50	btc updown 15m 1770165900	Up	SELL	25	82¢	$21	0xae8ac1…
02-04 00:49:50	btc updown 15m 1770165900	Up	SELL	5	82¢	$4	0x4f8d8b…
02-04 00:48:26	btc updown 15m 1770165900	Up	BUY	30	75¢	$22	0x6d9f3f…
02-04 00:47:18	btc updown 15m 1770165900	Up	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0xb8e8a3…
02-04 00:47:18	btc updown 15m 1770165900	Up	SELL	6	60¢	$3	0x1f14bd…
02-04 00:47:18	btc updown 15m 1770165900	Up	SELL	29	60¢	$17	0x129138…
02-04 00:45:32	btc updown 15m 1770165900	Up	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x292570…
02-03 22:57:44	btc updown 15m 1770158700	Up	BUY	104	4¢	$4	0xd656e0…
02-03 22:57:44	btc updown 15m 1770158700	Up	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0xb2469e…
02-03 22:57:44	btc updown 15m 1770158700	Up	BUY	235	4¢	$9	0x90cb49…
02-03 22:57:44	btc updown 15m 1770158700	Up	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x73b890…
02-03 22:57:44	btc updown 15m 1770158700	Up	BUY	16	4¢	$1	0x60eba0…
02-03 22:57:42	btc updown 15m 1770158700	Up	BUY	93	4¢	$4	0xafee00…
02-03 22:57:42	btc updown 15m 1770158700	Up	BUY	40	4¢	$2	0x065ce9…
02-03 22:21:30	us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	No	BUY	1,500	0¢	$3	0x3728e9…
02-03 21:04:10	us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	No	BUY	5,348	0¢	$20	0xbca45a…
02-03 21:03:30	us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x5bb33a…
02-03 21:03:24	us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x0398d2…
02-03 19:16:24	us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	No	BUY	1,880	0¢	$4	0xe80902…
02-03 19:16:12	will drake perform during the super bowl lx halftime show	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0xe49681…
02-03 19:03:22	us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	No	BUY	25,000	0¢	$50	0x93c9af…
02-03 18:58:12	us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	No	BUY	5,000	0¢	$10	0xd66586…
02-03 01:08:56	will drake perform during the super bowl lx halftime show	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x3120ab…