Murky-Rhetoric — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

88.0%

Resolved

Trades

4,613

lifetime

Volume

$857.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$186

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-27

last 08-14 00:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

69% 100% +$5

Other

22% 0% $-1

Tech

4% — —

Crypto

3% — —

Sports

2% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 259 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	99	$38.6K	36,284	57,510	-21,227	open	—	06-15 19:13
will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	52	$37.1K	37,649	0	+37,649	open	—	07-04 00:31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	51	$30.5K	20,751	24,141	-3,390	open	—	06-14 23:13
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	61	$21.9K	24,009	9,912	+14,096	open	—	08-12 16:06
iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	34	$20.4K	15,962	14,985	+977	open	—	07-12 03:20
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	6	$19.4K	18,591	1,925	+16,666	open	—	06-03 02:19
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	54	$18.9K	14,842	15,342	-500	open	—	05-30 02:26
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	43	$18.8K	19,827	4,272	+15,555	open	—	07-07 19:52
iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	39	$17.7K	14,344	10,997	+3,348	open	—	07-28 18:04
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	129	$16.6K	17,407	19,969	-2,562	open	—	06-14 23:44
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	189	$16.5K	8,686	10,285	-1,599	open	—	05-30 23:27
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	38	$16.4K	15,670	15,670	+0	open	—	08-13 11:14
israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	28	$15.5K	8,860	8,774	+86	open	—	08-01 02:02
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	79	$14.8K	20,600	11,799	+8,800	open	—	06-22 12:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	88	$12.8K	15,078	17,295	-2,217	open	—	07-02 07:55
will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	33	$12.1K	6,602	6,602	+0	open	—	08-12 22:10
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	11	$11.3K	17,800	2,800	+15,000	open	—	07-19 21:48
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	51	$11.2K	14,330	15,430	-1,100	open	—	05-29 22:25
kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	10	$11.1K	11,237	0	+11,237	open	—	07-28 18:53
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	39	$10.3K	25,333	7,333	+18,000	open	—	08-09 03:22
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	31	$9.5K	17,314	8,379	+8,935	open	—	08-11 01:18
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	112	$9.4K	13,398	7,193	+6,205	open	—	06-14 20:04
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	64	$9.3K	14,876	5,326	+9,550	open	—	06-19 05:37
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	36	$9.0K	9,065	8,427	+638	open	—	05-31 23:28
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	5	$8.5K	6,595	3,048	+3,548	open	—	08-08 19:47
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	12	$8.3K	4,903	4,950	-47	open	—	07-21 15:23
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	67	$7.8K	9,942	6,061	+3,881	open	—	06-30 22:43
israel closes its airspace by august 15	22	$7.8K	9,135	4,168	+4,967	open	—	08-02 22:20
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	80	$7.5K	9,979	11,686	-1,707	open	—	06-14 23:10
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	52	$7.3K	7,899	11,247	-3,348	open	—	06-19 23:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-14 01:17:55	iran oman hormuz agreement by august 22	No	SELL	364	80¢	$291	0x8d405b…
08-14 00:51:54	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 31 2026 339	No	SELL	13	76¢	$10	0x5a84ec…
08-14 00:51:52	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 31 2026 339	No	SELL	3	76¢	$2	0x387ac8…
08-14 00:51:51	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 31 2026 339	No	SELL	58	76¢	$44	0x475b83…
08-13 11:51:15	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	BUY	700	81¢	$567	0xe4752d…
08-13 11:14:49	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	1,656	92¢	$1,523	0x277b90…
08-13 10:44:22	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 31 2026 339	No	SELL	1,000	65¢	$650	0xc71d39…
08-13 10:34:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	1,758	92¢	$1,617	0xa8c823…
08-13 10:24:58	us iran hormuz agreement by august 15 20260804222025506 211	No	SELL	586	90¢	$527	0x479e00…
08-13 08:23:36	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	BUY	388	82¢	$318	0x9fc731…
08-12 22:40:39	will kai or speed be eliminated by powder snow 20260807142948641	No	BUY	223	100¢	$223	0x21591e…
08-12 22:11:22	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	Yes	SELL	500	100¢	$499	0x4ec4d2…
08-12 22:11:21	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	Yes	SELL	500	100¢	$499	0xe4acc5…
08-12 22:11:16	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	Yes	SELL	729	100¢	$728	0x84e35c…
08-12 22:11:09	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	Yes	SELL	600	100¢	$599	0xc58b05…
08-12 22:10:40	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	SELL	6,602	100¢	$6,582	0x0db743…
08-12 21:55:37	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	BUY	504	87¢	$440	0xbbbc4f…
08-12 21:48:40	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	BUY	22	86¢	$19	0xcf614e…
08-12 21:47:54	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0x7b53fe…
08-12 21:47:09	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	BUY	0	86¢	$0	0xa269f1…
08-12 21:47:09	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	BUY	150	86¢	$129	0x6db261…
08-12 21:46:37	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	BUY	242	86¢	$208	0x295e77…
08-12 21:40:28	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0x93a00a…
08-12 21:39:43	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	BUY	53	87¢	$46	0x905a8c…
08-12 21:39:16	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	BUY	65	87¢	$57	0xc0484b…
08-12 21:38:09	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	BUY	150	87¢	$130	0x0ed653…
08-12 21:37:58	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	BUY	74	87¢	$64	0x044258…
08-12 21:37:22	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	BUY	288	86¢	$248	0xd82d98…
08-12 21:37:09	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	BUY	500	86¢	$432	0x8abbb4…
08-12 21:36:58	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0x18a263…
08-12 21:36:46	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x6aea65…
08-12 21:36:45	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0xbb5137…
08-12 21:36:27	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	BUY	27	86¢	$23	0x37f1db…
08-12 21:34:40	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	BUY	92	86¢	$79	0x20e6e0…
08-12 21:26:40	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	BUY	309	85¢	$264	0x9f2a9f…
08-12 21:26:31	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	BUY	27	85¢	$23	0xc797ea…
08-12 21:26:30	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	BUY	500	85¢	$426	0xb01ebf…
08-12 21:26:12	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	BUY	338	85¢	$288	0xe285d9…
08-12 21:25:57	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	BUY	40	85¢	$34	0x1d05dc…
08-12 21:25:40	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	BUY	68	85¢	$58	0x14e45d…
08-12 21:24:33	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	BUY	115	85¢	$98	0xef86db…
08-12 21:24:31	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	BUY	36	85¢	$31	0xb48d13…
08-12 21:24:30	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	BUY	67	85¢	$57	0x63d55e…
08-12 21:21:03	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	BUY	200	81¢	$162	0x8bbc49…
08-12 21:20:19	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x2478da…
08-12 21:20:18	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	BUY	647	80¢	$515	0xf93b03…
08-12 21:19:37	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	Yes	BUY	608	88¢	$534	0xd9ecb2…
08-12 21:19:24	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	BUY	1,700	83¢	$1,411	0xe1260b…
08-12 20:49:46	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	BUY	294	70¢	$206	0xe06745…
08-12 20:32:16	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	Yes	BUY	45	76¢	$34	0x6301cb…
08-12 20:20:06	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	Yes	BUY	221	71¢	$158	0xffb582…
08-12 20:14:09	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	Yes	BUY	523	69¢	$359	0xd2b69e…
08-12 19:59:04	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	Yes	BUY	400	63¢	$252	0x229589…
08-12 19:55:13	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	Yes	BUY	311	66¢	$205	0xad2b1d…
08-12 19:55:07	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	Yes	BUY	221	67¢	$149	0x4e8c47…
08-12 17:36:04	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	SELL	56	73¢	$41	0xaa6332…
08-12 17:36:00	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	SELL	419	73¢	$306	0xf7034f…
08-12 17:35:51	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	SELL	68	73¢	$50	0x8249dc…
08-12 17:35:22	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	SELL	959	73¢	$700	0x01f2b7…
08-12 17:05:21	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	Yes	SELL	2,109	40¢	$844	0x778d93…
08-12 16:25:45	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xe3e444…
08-12 16:25:31	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	40	55¢	$22	0x1ac139…
08-12 16:23:09	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	1,454	55¢	$799	0xcc6fe1…
08-12 16:18:37	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	1,481	100¢	$1,478	0x17bc3b…
08-12 16:17:51	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	Yes	BUY	7	18¢	$1	0x54e47f…
08-12 16:17:46	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	Yes	BUY	102	18¢	$19	0x259735…
08-12 16:15:16	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	Yes	BUY	2,000	21¢	$417	0x4ffc89…
08-12 16:06:27	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	599	99¢	$596	0x923e0a…
08-12 16:06:15	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	463	100¢	$460	0x5e4564…
08-12 06:00:25	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	254	98¢	$249	0xaab49a…
08-12 04:50:54	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	2,500	97¢	$2,428	0x39e4aa…
08-11 23:00:49	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 31 2026 339	No	SELL	0	63¢	$0	0xd35d72…
08-11 22:09:09	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 31 2026 339	No	SELL	50	63¢	$32	0x5708f5…
08-11 22:00:51	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 31 2026 339	No	SELL	200	63¢	$126	0xb4b9e7…
08-11 21:40:07	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 31 2026 339	No	SELL	228	63¢	$143	0x02015e…
08-11 21:27:57	iran oman hormuz agreement by august 22	No	BUY	364	66¢	$239	0x6d34df…
08-11 21:27:52	us iran hormuz agreement by august 15 20260804222025506 211	No	BUY	586	77¢	$451	0x9e9e3b…
08-11 21:12:15	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	SELL	2,500	79¢	$1,975	0x21e37a…
08-11 19:33:00	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 31 2026 339	No	SELL	396	63¢	$250	0xf2f41e…
08-11 07:27:01	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 31 2026 339	No	SELL	45	58¢	$26	0x72e5ed…
08-11 06:49:06	will wti reach 100 in august 2026	No	BUY	926	85¢	$787	0x750e78…
08-11 06:41:57	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 31 2026 339	No	SELL	1	58¢	$1	0xd34293…
08-11 06:41:57	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 31 2026 339	No	SELL	3	58¢	$2	0xc3ec1d…
08-11 06:18:57	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 31 2026 339	No	SELL	700	58¢	$406	0x7eb9e8…
08-11 01:18:13	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	SELL	5,500	10¢	$550	0x854122…
08-11 01:10:22	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	BUY	800	64¢	$512	0xcb8256…
08-10 22:54:48	will trump say bitcoin or crypto or cryptocurrency during tele rally 20260809153916675	No	BUY	115	100¢	$115	0xf769a8…
08-10 14:32:12	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	806	17¢	$137	0xe2d6be…
08-10 14:27:16	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,176	17¢	$200	0xb30ca1…
08-10 13:38:52	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	18	17¢	$3	0x7d614e…
08-09 22:49:51	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804000051471	No	BUY	500	72¢	$360	0xa65884…
08-09 22:47:31	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	1,500	91¢	$1,365	0x870a4d…
08-09 21:23:18	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	368	89¢	$328	0x1e5e0d…
08-09 21:17:04	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	43	85¢	$36	0xa58f52…
08-09 21:11:48	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	1,500	89¢	$1,335	0x47c7e8…
08-09 21:10:48	will wti reach 85 in august 2026	No	BUY	65	57¢	$37	0xdd7302…
08-09 21:10:46	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	1,416	83¢	$1,173	0x96af5c…
08-09 21:10:21	will wti reach 85 in august 2026	No	BUY	400	57¢	$228	0x6b9e7f…
08-09 21:08:52	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	2,000	89¢	$1,780	0xbae67f…
08-09 21:08:28	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	500	90¢	$450	0xfccafd…