Yearly-Stag — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$802

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

37.8%

Resolved

315

Trades

702

lifetime

Volume

$5.12K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-31

last 09-09 15:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 32 days

Categories

Crypto

65% 29% -$417

Other

26% 0% -$194

Politics

8% 0% -$191

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 55 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	22	$630	18,477	6,764	+11,713	No	-$86	03-06 14:00
will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	22	$579	40,762	40,762	+0	No	-$9	03-06 14:17
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	4	$355	4,097	4,097	+0	Yes	-$189	03-01 01:31
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-04 07:45 UTC	6	$229	270	267	+4	Down	+$30	02-04 07:50
bitcoin up or down march 4 5am et	20	$226	550	550	+0	Down	+$18	03-04 10:50
bitcoin up or down march 4 5pm et	5	$163	523	23	+500	Down	-$140	03-04 22:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	3	$150	575	475	+100	Down	+$81	05-14 13:34
bitcoin up or down february 15 8pm et	3	$118	162	150	+12	Down	+$26	02-16 01:38
bitcoin up or down february 20 2pm et	3	$100	468	0	+468	Down	-$100	02-20 19:25
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$78	71	71	+0	Yes	-$2	03-24 15:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 20:10 UTC	2	$75	67	66	+1	Up	+$36	03-22 20:14
bitcoin up or down february 15 9pm et	1	$75	584	0	+584	Down	-$75	02-16 02:39
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-04-08 20:00 UTC	14	$69	162	51	+111	Down	-$4	04-08 23:31
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 19:40 UTC	2	$62	43	43	+1	Up	+$23	03-22 19:45
bitcoin up or down march 22 2026 7pm et	3	$60	1,057	56	+1,001	Down	+$8	03-22 23:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12PM ET	3	$58	51	51	+0	Up	+$30	05-14 16:52
bitcoin up or down february 12 4pm et	1	$54	181	0	+181	Up	-$54	02-12 21:04
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-22 20:15 UTC	5	$54	56	56	+0	Down	+$34	03-22 20:29
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-03-22 20:00 UTC	5	$53	173	62	+111	Down	$0	03-22 23:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 17:10 UTC	1	$48	111	0	+111	Up	-$48	03-24 17:10
bitcoin up or down march 22 2026 9pm et	1	$47	659	0	+659	Up	-$47	03-23 01:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 23:45 UTC	3	$45	71	25	+46	Down	+$5	03-22 23:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	4	$41	150	100	+50	Down	+$19	05-14 13:39
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-23 01:15 UTC	1	$40	114	0	+114	Up	-$40	03-23 01:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	1	$40	40	0	+40	Up	+$0	05-17 20:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 00:25 UTC	2	$40	48	47	+0	Down	+$20	03-23 00:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4PM ET	5	$40	264	0	+264	Down	-$40	05-17 20:37
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-22 20:30 UTC	3	$38	47	41	+6	Up	+$17	03-22 20:42
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-22 23:00 UTC	2	$38	76	76	+0	Up	+$23	03-22 23:11
bitcoin up or down march 22 2026 8pm et	2	$36	56	55	+0	Down	+$16	03-23 00:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-09 15:28:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xbb2191…
09-09 13:53:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xc63084…
09-09 12:41:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x3f7b4c…
09-09 02:32:37	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on September 9?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x8f7cc4…
09-09 02:10:13	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on September 9?	Yes	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0x42aca4…
09-09 02:07:21	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on September 9?	Yes	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x8e460b…
09-09 02:05:25	Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 25°C or higher on September 9?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xd3c288…
09-09 02:04:28	Will the lowest temperature in Milan be 24°C or higher on September 9?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x8abbb0…
09-09 02:03:06	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 24°C on September 9?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x60786e…
09-09 02:01:22	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on September 9?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x232709…
09-09 00:44:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xfaf5c9…
09-09 00:13:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x6f8cd7…
09-08 23:52:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 7PM ET	Up	BUY	9	1¢	$0	0x8a2a78…
09-08 23:52:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 7PM ET	Up	BUY	18	1¢	$0	0xe90d7b…
09-08 23:52:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 7PM ET	Up	BUY	19	1¢	$0	0x7c1f2b…
09-08 23:52:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 7PM ET	Up	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0x2715ab…
09-08 23:52:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 7PM ET	Up	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0xfa09e2…
09-08 23:52:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 7PM ET	Up	BUY	19	1¢	$0	0x328618…
09-08 23:51:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 7PM ET	Up	BUY	19	1¢	$0	0xdbc98a…
09-08 23:39:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xbabfd2…
09-08 23:24:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x636f96…
09-08 23:10:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x01183f…
09-08 22:54:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xa2a4cd…
09-08 21:57:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x71c539…
09-08 21:09:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xb67dcc…
09-08 20:53:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x7f8200…
09-08 20:44:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x2929b5…
09-08 20:43:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	SELL	30	10¢	$3	0xdba8ef…
09-08 20:43:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	SELL	0	10¢	$0	0x9c3f5b…
09-08 20:43:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x3d4220…
09-08 20:43:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	SELL	3	10¢	$0	0x0d0e5b…
09-08 20:43:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	SELL	31	10¢	$3	0xe90bf3…
09-08 20:43:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0xd0ab05…
09-08 20:43:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	SELL	6	10¢	$1	0xf67bb9…
09-08 20:43:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	SELL	0	10¢	$0	0x879175…
09-08 20:41:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	8	5¢	$0	0x5048d4…
09-08 20:41:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	52	5¢	$3	0x098925…
09-08 20:40:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	6	5¢	$0	0x6724d6…
09-08 20:40:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	6	5¢	$0	0xb3f094…
09-08 20:40:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	6	5¢	$0	0x574556…
09-08 20:40:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	6	5¢	$0	0x5a415b…
09-08 20:40:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	17	5¢	$1	0xeca825…
09-08 20:29:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	SELL	8	30¢	$2	0xea351d…
09-08 20:29:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	SELL	1	30¢	$0	0x2035c8…
09-08 20:29:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	SELL	22	30¢	$7	0xedac73…
09-08 20:29:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	SELL	30	30¢	$9	0xdf3ed0…
09-08 20:29:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0xb4bed8…
09-08 20:29:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	SELL	21	30¢	$6	0x2ae2d6…
09-08 20:29:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	SELL	13	30¢	$4	0x022ed8…
09-08 20:27:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x0c354c…
09-08 20:10:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x476f2c…
09-08 20:08:42	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2,192	0¢	$11	0x0e0fb7…
09-08 19:05:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x60a701…
09-08 19:03:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	86	7¢	$6	0xf86ae7…
09-08 18:53:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xfd0a11…
09-08 18:40:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	57	1¢	$1	0xb4f8ec…
09-08 18:40:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	23	1¢	$0	0xd0f43d…
09-08 18:40:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x7f2d75…
09-08 18:40:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	0	1¢	$0	0x7fb7b4…
09-08 18:10:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	52	1¢	$1	0x8b26f3…
09-08 18:10:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	48	1¢	$0	0x418841…
09-08 17:46:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 1PM ET	Up	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x16f117…
09-08 17:14:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xe88464…
09-08 17:14:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x2beddc…
09-08 17:08:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x863e98…
09-08 17:03:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xb832fd…
09-08 16:56:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 12PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x4c2354…
09-04 14:24:19	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,192	1¢	$13	0x92ff92…
09-02 22:46:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 6PM ET	Up	BUY	9	4¢	$0	0xc60c93…
09-02 22:46:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 6PM ET	Up	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x638587…
09-02 19:59:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 3PM ET	Up	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0x275d3c…
09-02 19:59:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x9baec8…
09-02 19:59:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 3PM ET	Up	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0x601220…
09-02 19:59:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x0f5da9…
09-02 19:59:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xd86cf6…
09-02 14:44:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	6¢	$0	0xc470ed…
07-27 17:13:15	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	11,800	0¢	$24	0x59e1aa…
05-28 16:15:20	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 28?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xab4b19…
05-28 03:48:45	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 28?	Yes	BUY	476	4¢	$19	0x55f77f…
05-18 02:19:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x9d158d…
05-17 20:37:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	114	15¢	$17	0x9a92fa…
05-17 20:34:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	123	15¢	$18	0x5a16ce…
05-17 20:34:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0x386668…
05-17 20:34:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0xe4a2fa…
05-17 20:34:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	12	15¢	$2	0x95f8c8…
05-17 20:30:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x549676…
05-17 20:25:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	114	9¢	$10	0xd2e62b…
05-14 20:01:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	51	17¢	$9	0x5d3c63…
05-14 19:56:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	53	7¢	$4	0xade664…
05-14 19:56:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	35	6¢	$2	0x223af6…
05-14 19:55:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	274	2¢	$5	0xfc596a…
05-14 19:52:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x12990d…
05-14 19:52:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x206da1…
05-14 18:28:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x199997…
05-14 18:28:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x879a99…
05-14 18:24:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x94b420…
05-14 18:19:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x96d3f2…
05-14 17:54:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1PM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x6cbe57…
05-14 17:47:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x0085d6…
05-14 17:45:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1PM ET	Up	BUY	88	11¢	$10	0xef8a1a…