Guilty-Shift — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$255

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

64.9%

Resolved

2,266

Trades

5,598

lifetime

Volume

$68.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-04 11:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 145 days

Categories

Crypto

91% 56% +$42

Other

5% 18% -$189

Politics

3% 19% -$96

Sports

1% 15% -$6

Tech

0% 17% -$5

Pop-Culture

0% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-21 16:45 UTC	10	$245	220	122	+98	Down	-$48	01-21 16:56
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-20 16:00 UTC	8	$201	178	176	+3	Up	+$28	01-20 16:12
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-19 04:30 UTC	6	$183	162	159	+2	Up	+$49	01-19 04:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-05 10:30 UTC	9	$167	132	120	+12	Down	-$13	01-05 10:45
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-14 09:30 UTC	4	$166	196	193	+3	Up	-$28	01-14 09:45
will the 2026 bad bunny super bowl halftime show video get between 100m and 125m views in its first 7 days	14	$150	131	131	+0	No	-$3	02-13 10:30
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-21 03:00 UTC	8	$148	119	94	+26	Up	+$3	01-21 03:15
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-05 00:15 UTC	6	$141	96	96	+0	Up	+$11	01-05 00:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-20 13:15 UTC	9	$141	89	88	+1	Down	+$13	01-20 13:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-22 04:30 UTC	3	$139	87	86	+1	Up	+$27	01-22 04:45
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 29?	7	$135	200	200	+0	Down	+$7	05-29 10:17
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-14 09:30 UTC	2	$134	121	120	+2	Down	-$17	01-14 09:40
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-06 09:45 UTC	8	$131	97	96	+1	Down	-$10	02-06 09:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-15 11:00 UTC	6	$130	104	103	+1	Down	-$18	02-15 11:14
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-14 08:45 UTC	6	$126	81	80	+1	Down	+$6	01-14 09:00
will bangladesh jamaat e islami win the most seats in the bangladesh parliamentary election	9	$124	400	400	+0	No	$0	02-12 12:26
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-10 09:45 UTC	5	$123	72	71	+1	Up	+$14	01-10 09:58
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-19 09:15 UTC	4	$122	77	77	+1	Up	+$2	01-19 09:21
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-16 09:00 UTC	6	$121	108	79	+29	Down	-$31	01-16 09:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-19 10:15 UTC	4	$121	69	69	+0	Up	+$13	01-19 10:25
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-10 14:15 UTC	4	$121	102	47	+55	Down	+$11	01-10 14:30
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-01 15:45 UTC	2	$117	51	82	-31	Up	+$6	02-01 15:52
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	7	$113	147	147	+0	Yes	$0	06-17 06:45
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-19 02:15 UTC	5	$111	65	65	+0	Up	+$10	01-19 02:29
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-10 04:45 UTC	4	$110	229	129	+100	Down	-$68	01-10 04:59
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	4	$110	100	100	+0	Yes	+$2	04-07 10:15
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-06 05:30 UTC	7	$109	102	102	+0	Down	-$49	01-06 05:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-12 02:30 UTC	9	$109	100	100	+0	Up	+$10	02-12 02:34
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-19 09:45 UTC	6	$108	83	82	+1	Up	-$11	01-19 09:57
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-14 08:45 UTC	6	$108	80	79	+1	Down	-$1	01-14 08:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-04 11:49:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 11:45 UTC	Down	SELL	25	89¢	$22	0xef759b…
10-04 11:48:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 11:45 UTC	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xdadfa6…
09-16 13:14:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 13:10 UTC	Up	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x614ddd…
09-16 13:12:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 13:10 UTC	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x3798f3…
08-11 07:18:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 07:15 UTC	Up	SELL	4	2¢	$0	0x93de8d…
08-11 07:15:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 07:15 UTC	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x412c80…
08-11 07:14:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 07:10 UTC	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xf54962…
06-26 09:49:55	will the announcers say oh my god or oh my goodness during the croatia vs ghana fifa world cup match 20260625200259129	Yes	SELL	20	16¢	$3	0xb84600…
06-26 09:46:08	Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	SELL	50	35¢	$18	0x47e742…
06-26 09:39:02	will the announcers say oh my god or oh my goodness during the croatia vs ghana fifa world cup match 20260625200259129	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x580ecb…
06-26 09:32:49	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	SELL	100	35¢	$35	0x139676…
06-26 09:31:50	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0x795170…
06-26 09:24:47	Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	50	36¢	$18	0xfb36f1…
06-18 05:30:55	Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma?	Yes	SELL	150	4¢	$6	0x5b156f…
06-18 05:30:17	will the announcers say nutmeg meg during the czechia vs south africa fifa world cup match 20260616211456425	Yes	SELL	30	21¢	$6	0x2f9f57…
06-18 05:30:13	Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma?	Yes	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0x47ca7a…
06-18 05:28:44	will the announcers say nutmeg meg during the czechia vs south africa fifa world cup match 20260616211456425	Yes	BUY	30	21¢	$6	0x5892dc…
06-18 05:25:26	will the announcers say loose ball during the mexico vs south korea fifa world cup match 20260616192751366	Yes	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0x95047a…
06-18 05:25:07	Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma?	Yes	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0x287d31…
06-18 05:24:35	will the announcers say loose ball during the mexico vs south korea fifa world cup match 20260616192751366	Yes	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xbc804e…
06-17 07:13:14	Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	SELL	40	20¢	$8	0x9f4db5…
06-17 06:45:10	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	Yes	SELL	50	43¢	$22	0xece390…
06-17 06:38:52	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	Yes	BUY	50	45¢	$22	0x716a05…
06-17 06:09:29	Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0xdc49aa…
06-17 06:07:56	Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x731bc5…
06-17 05:47:37	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	SELL	54	24¢	$13	0x21ce28…
06-17 05:30:53	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	SELL	46	26¢	$12	0x627b5c…
06-17 04:46:10	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0xa5489f…
06-16 11:27:16	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 17 2026 20260612163100185 516 841	Yes	SELL	50	17¢	$8	0x960f14…
06-16 11:26:16	wti up or down on june 16 2026	Up	SELL	200	4¢	$8	0x12ec5d…
06-16 11:22:27	Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3?	Yes	SELL	50	30¢	$15	0x829428…
06-16 11:15:28	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	Yes	SELL	47	36¢	$17	0xb0e884…
06-16 11:14:24	Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3?	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x80709e…
06-16 11:13:49	Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3?	Yes	BUY	9	28¢	$2	0x7678e6…
06-16 11:13:31	Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3?	Yes	BUY	9	28¢	$2	0xe3028a…
06-16 11:13:31	wti up or down on june 16 2026	Up	BUY	200	7¢	$14	0x6f8b3c…
06-16 11:12:21	Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3?	Yes	BUY	26	28¢	$7	0x4ef13a…
06-16 11:11:46	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	Yes	BUY	47	36¢	$17	0x4d75b5…
06-16 11:05:30	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 17 2026 20260612163100185 516 841	Yes	BUY	50	21¢	$10	0xcb9e52…
06-16 10:04:46	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	50	23¢	$11	0x6f0f56…
06-16 10:02:58	will steve witkoff sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950071	Yes	SELL	1	26¢	$0	0x92c84a…
06-16 09:07:40	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0xaf5060…
06-16 09:07:39	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	30	26¢	$8	0xe36785…
06-16 08:57:24	will steve witkoff sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950071	Yes	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0x58e96a…
06-16 08:54:21	wti up or down on june 16 2026	Up	SELL	14	9¢	$1	0x771865…
06-16 08:54:19	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 17 2026 20260612163100185 516 841	Yes	SELL	25	32¢	$8	0xda26b0…
06-16 08:51:25	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 17 2026 20260612163100185 516 841	Yes	BUY	25	33¢	$8	0x6a261e…
06-16 08:49:45	wti up or down on june 16 2026	Up	BUY	14	9¢	$1	0x4d47c9…
06-16 07:09:40	will the announcers say president during the england vs croatia fifa world cup match 20260615191513555	Yes	SELL	11	38¢	$4	0x4ab119…
06-16 07:08:24	will the announcers say president during the england vs croatia fifa world cup match 20260615191513555	Yes	BUY	11	38¢	$4	0x19a847…
06-16 07:06:33	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 17 2026 20260612163100185 516 841	Yes	SELL	45	20¢	$9	0xf9fc03…
06-16 07:03:03	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 17 2026 20260612163100185 516 841	Yes	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x3b93e9…
06-16 06:55:03	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 17 2026 20260612163100185 516 841	Yes	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0x2e908f…
06-16 06:47:13	will the announcers say messi during the england vs croatia fifa world cup match 20260615191513557	Yes	SELL	20	43¢	$9	0x9a2df8…
06-16 06:46:45	will the announcers say ankle during the england vs croatia fifa world cup match 20260615191513560	Yes	SELL	30	29¢	$9	0x366615…
06-16 06:46:13	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	Yes	SELL	40	35¢	$14	0x96b9dd…
06-16 06:37:00	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	Yes	SELL	10	36¢	$4	0x4bf3ae…
06-16 06:25:43	will the announcers say ankle during the england vs croatia fifa world cup match 20260615191513560	Yes	BUY	30	39¢	$12	0x978d50…
06-16 06:18:54	will abbas araghchi sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950073	Yes	SELL	62	32¢	$20	0x6892ee…
06-16 06:17:39	will abbas araghchi sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950073	Yes	BUY	1	32¢	$0	0x05ae78…
06-16 06:17:34	will abbas araghchi sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950073	Yes	BUY	1	32¢	$0	0x5a5ddd…
06-16 06:17:30	will abbas araghchi sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950073	Yes	BUY	1	32¢	$0	0xcceedc…
06-16 06:17:28	will abbas araghchi sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950073	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x35c766…
06-16 06:17:25	will abbas araghchi sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950073	Yes	BUY	1	32¢	$0	0xb5f25b…
06-16 06:17:21	will abbas araghchi sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950073	Yes	BUY	1	32¢	$0	0x778f9e…
06-16 06:11:37	will the announcers say messi during the england vs croatia fifa world cup match 20260615191513557	Yes	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0xe82d8e…
06-16 06:08:21	spy closes above 760 on june 16 2026	Yes	SELL	60	12¢	$7	0xb5ce88…
06-16 05:50:09	will the announcers say red card during the england vs croatia fifa world cup match 20260615191513562	Yes	SELL	12	58¢	$7	0x9d7c0e…
06-16 05:48:04	will the announcers say red card during the england vs croatia fifa world cup match 20260615191513562	Yes	BUY	12	58¢	$7	0x90533e…
06-16 05:35:13	will abbas araghchi sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950073	Yes	BUY	47	36¢	$17	0xe6f44e…
06-16 05:34:52	spy closes above 760 on june 16 2026	Yes	BUY	60	11¢	$7	0x01b38c…
06-16 05:27:12	will abbas araghchi sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950073	Yes	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0x4ae131…
06-16 05:27:07	will abbas araghchi sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950073	Yes	BUY	1	36¢	$0	0xbced31…
06-16 05:14:13	Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3?	Yes	SELL	27	17¢	$5	0x7a4e10…
06-16 05:12:22	Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3?	Yes	SELL	23	17¢	$4	0x28b7b0…
06-16 05:09:19	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	Yes	BUY	50	34¢	$17	0x74a5fe…
06-16 05:08:49	Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3?	Yes	BUY	50	16¢	$8	0x7c53fd…
06-16 04:48:42	will shehbaz sharif sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950081	Yes	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0x7e3833…
06-16 04:47:33	will shehbaz sharif sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950081	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xd90e00…
06-13 05:53:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-13 05:50 UTC	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xc0b204…
06-13 05:26:42	Will Ecuador finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	SELL	21	40¢	$8	0xe9abe1…
06-13 05:21:46	Will Ecuador finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	BUY	6	42¢	$3	0x4f83c0…
06-13 05:09:43	Will Ecuador finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	BUY	15	41¢	$6	0xed8e9e…
06-12 10:37:25	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 18	Yes	SELL	20	63¢	$13	0xb9649a…
06-12 10:12:22	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 18	Yes	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0x0ca5d8…
06-12 09:53:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-12 09:50 UTC	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x36ef8a…
06-12 09:52:36	will tim weah be in the starting 11 for the usas first 2026 fifa world cup group stage match 20260611180532031	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x73bd80…
06-12 09:23:28	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	Yes	SELL	21	22¢	$5	0xc7b7e7…
06-12 09:22:24	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 17	Yes	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0xaf5aa6…
06-12 09:22:10	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 16	Yes	SELL	20	48¢	$10	0xb39f21…
06-12 09:21:54	will tim weah be in the starting 11 for the usas first 2026 fifa world cup group stage match 20260611180532031	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0xb6ae94…
06-12 09:21:18	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 16	Yes	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x97e9f7…
06-12 09:21:18	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 17	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x32561f…
06-12 09:21:18	wti up or down on june 12 2026	Up	SELL	10	11¢	$1	0x077e61…
06-12 09:18:04	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 16	Yes	SELL	5	48¢	$2	0x7c3095…
06-12 09:16:46	wti up or down on june 12 2026	Up	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0x463968…
06-12 09:16:36	wti up or down on june 12 2026	Up	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0x04e2c5…
06-12 09:13:31	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 16	Yes	SELL	1	48¢	$0	0x4f5cd4…
06-12 09:13:16	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 16	Yes	SELL	14	48¢	$7	0xf7358f…
06-12 09:13:16	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 17	Yes	SELL	20	53¢	$11	0xdf4944…