Guilty-Shift — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

+$4

Hit rate

34.0%

Resolved

Trades

5,442

lifetime

Volume

$67.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-09 08:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

93% 67% +$1

Other

4% 0% —

Politics

2% — —

Sports

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes		-16	$-5	12¢	$-2	+$4	06-02 05:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
btc updown 15m 1769013900	10	$245	220	122	+98	open	—	01-21 16:56
btc updown 15m 1768924800	8	$201	178	176	+3	open	—	01-20 16:12
eth updown 15m 1768797000	6	$183	162	159	+2	open	—	01-19 04:43
btc updown 15m 1767609000	9	$167	132	120	+12	open	—	01-05 10:45
sol updown 15m 1768383000	4	$166	196	193	+3	open	—	01-14 09:45
will the 2026 bad bunny super bowl halftime show video get between 100m and 125m views in its first 7 days	14	$150	131	131	+0	open	—	02-13 10:30
btc updown 15m 1768964400	8	$148	119	94	+26	open	—	01-21 03:15
xrp updown 15m 1767572100	6	$141	96	96	+0	open	—	01-05 00:29
btc updown 15m 1768914900	9	$141	89	88	+1	open	—	01-20 13:29
btc updown 15m 1769056200	3	$139	87	86	+1	open	—	01-22 04:45
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 29?	7	$135	200	200	+0	open	—	05-29 10:17
eth updown 15m 1768383000	2	$134	121	120	+2	open	—	01-14 09:40
btc updown 15m 1770371100	8	$131	97	96	+1	open	—	02-06 09:59
btc updown 15m 1771153200	6	$130	104	103	+1	open	—	02-15 11:14
eth updown 15m 1768380300	6	$126	81	80	+1	open	—	01-14 09:00
will bangladesh jamaat e islami win the most seats in the bangladesh parliamentary election	9	$124	400	400	+0	open	—	02-12 12:26
eth updown 15m 1768038300	5	$123	72	71	+1	open	—	01-10 09:58
sol updown 15m 1768814100	4	$122	77	77	+1	open	—	01-19 09:21
eth updown 15m 1768554000	6	$121	108	79	+29	open	—	01-16 09:14
btc updown 15m 1768817700	4	$121	69	69	+0	open	—	01-19 10:25
sol updown 15m 1768054500	4	$121	102	47	+55	open	—	01-10 14:30
btc updown 15m 1769960700	2	$117	51	82	-31	open	—	02-01 15:52
btc updown 15m 1768788900	5	$111	65	65	+0	open	—	01-19 02:29
sol updown 15m 1768020300	4	$110	229	129	+100	open	—	01-10 04:59
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	4	$110	100	100	+0	open	—	04-07 10:15
xrp updown 15m 1767677400	7	$109	102	102	+0	open	—	01-06 05:44
btc updown 5m 1770863400	9	$109	100	100	+0	open	—	02-12 02:34
eth updown 15m 1768815900	6	$108	83	82	+1	open	—	01-19 09:57
xrp updown 15m 1768380300	6	$108	80	79	+1	open	—	01-14 08:57
btc updown 15m 1768815900	7	$107	69	69	+1	open	—	01-19 09:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-10 07:27:57	btc updown 5m 1781076300	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x662a59…
06-09 08:04:24	eth updown 5m 1780992000	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x457fbb…
06-09 07:59:33	gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	Yes	SELL	200	10¢	$20	0x0e3294…
06-09 07:50:15	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540	Yes	SELL	20	15¢	$3	0x1665c9…
06-09 07:34:09	gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	Yes	BUY	200	11¢	$22	0xbdd0d0…
06-09 07:28:27	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0xc390bd…
06-09 06:34:10	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	Yes	SELL	40	48¢	$19	0xe43f6c…
06-09 06:30:15	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xd98e90…
06-09 06:30:07	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x9c9e3e…
06-09 06:26:40	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	Yes	BUY	0	51¢	$0	0x0078f9…
06-07 14:33:07	btc updown 5m 1780842600	Up	SELL	11	97¢	$10	0x77740e…
06-07 14:32:22	btc updown 5m 1780842600	Up	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xcd0da5…
06-07 11:19:01	btc updown 5m 1780830900	Down	SELL	8	23¢	$2	0x05c247…
06-07 11:17:45	btc updown 5m 1780830900	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x2e03a1…
06-07 11:14:24	btc updown 5m 1780830600	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x723f06…
06-07 04:23:40	btc updown 5m 1780806000	Up	SELL	8	1¢	$0	0x7f6717…
06-07 04:22:55	btc updown 5m 1780806000	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xad3e48…
06-06 06:22:21	btc updown 15m 1780726500	Up	SELL	5	64¢	$3	0xf7a203…
06-06 06:19:04	btc updown 15m 1780726500	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x35b74d…
06-06 06:17:42	btc updown 5m 1780726500	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xfb6f8e…
06-06 06:13:31	btc updown 5m 1780726200	Up	SELL	5	63¢	$3	0x9763a4…
06-06 06:11:03	btc updown 5m 1780726200	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x163ee3…
06-04 07:29:12	btc updown 5m 1780557900	Up	SELL	3	97¢	$3	0xdd7946…
06-04 07:26:55	btc updown 5m 1780557900	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x8fedc7…
06-03 05:17:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	SELL	6	48¢	$3	0xda753a…
06-03 05:16:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xa3c688…
06-02 07:59:23	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in June?	Yes	SELL	50	33¢	$16	0x5806b9…
06-02 06:04:21	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2?	Up	BUY	50	33¢	$16	0xd87365…
06-02 05:58:08	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in June?	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x8eae18…
06-02 05:24:18	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in June?	Yes	BUY	40	31¢	$12	0x6d2eb3…
06-02 05:11:40	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0xe0ec4a…
05-31 07:46:41	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	24¢	$0	0x8fda25…
05-31 07:26:36	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	24¢	$0	0xdd3402…
05-31 07:26:27	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	24¢	$0	0x1b09d3…
05-29 10:17:44	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 29?	Up	SELL	100	29¢	$29	0x70d8ea…
05-29 09:47:42	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 29?	Up	BUY	100	27¢	$27	0x075bf6…
05-29 09:08:14	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 29?	Up	SELL	100	42¢	$42	0x524e0c…
05-29 06:23:39	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 29?	Up	BUY	100	37¢	$37	0x0c9292…
05-29 05:35:42	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 29?	Up	BUY	0	37¢	$0	0x63904f…
05-29 05:35:38	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 29?	Up	BUY	0	37¢	$0	0x58e8ad…
05-29 05:35:33	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 29?	Up	BUY	0	37¢	$0	0x6e18f9…
05-29 04:54:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	SELL	6	58¢	$4	0xfd2171…
05-29 04:53:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x956bb0…
05-26 09:59:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xfa4067…
05-26 09:57:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xaae0b5…
05-26 09:52:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xe0ba46…
05-26 07:45:13	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 in May?	Yes	SELL	12	34¢	$4	0xbfa4d3…
05-26 07:43:39	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 in May?	Yes	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0x92cff0…
05-26 07:32:37	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 in May?	Yes	SELL	33	34¢	$11	0x60021a…
05-26 06:50:53	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	35¢	$18	0x1790ec…
05-24 07:38:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	SELL	10	93¢	$10	0x608a9a…
05-24 07:37:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x6481f3…
05-21 04:43:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x0c3787…
05-19 04:43:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xe035ad…
05-18 04:35:02	Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17)	Yes	SELL	50	19¢	$9	0x6c8d5b…
05-18 04:32:27	Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17)	Yes	BUY	45	14¢	$6	0x0b046e…
05-18 04:30:36	Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17)	Yes	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0xf3feb5…
05-18 04:28:18	Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17)	Yes	SELL	1	21¢	$0	0x1fb47c…
05-18 04:25:27	Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17)	Yes	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0x2e504b…
05-17 05:17:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x659605…
05-15 11:33:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x9f6105…
05-15 11:32:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xfe84d8…
05-15 05:14:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x6d538d…
05-13 04:27:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Up	SELL	6	33¢	$2	0x54f9e4…
05-13 04:26:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x12c781…
05-11 05:31:55	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 11?	Up	SELL	50	36¢	$18	0x993fa7…
05-11 05:16:06	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 11?	Up	BUY	50	36¢	$18	0xd2e260…
05-11 04:43:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Up	SELL	6	92¢	$6	0x568a63…
05-11 04:42:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xdd933b…
05-05 14:24:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xa982cf…
05-05 14:24:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xe97c26…
05-04 14:37:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	SELL	11	97¢	$10	0x48d947…
05-04 14:37:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x88b94e…
05-04 14:36:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x4834fb…
04-30 05:01:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	SELL	4	18¢	$1	0x5b5fe2…
04-30 05:00:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xeb2488…
04-29 12:32:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xcfbd3c…
04-29 12:32:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xaea792…
04-18 04:45:02	btc updown 5m 1776487200	Down	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x51c219…
04-18 04:43:54	btc updown 5m 1776487200	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x1028d7…
04-14 08:35:53	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	SELL	50	29¢	$14	0xc524fb…
04-14 08:03:57	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	BUY	50	31¢	$16	0x2ba0c9…
04-14 08:01:31	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	SELL	7	31¢	$2	0x6ea474…
04-14 08:01:07	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	BUY	7	33¢	$2	0x141e82…
04-14 08:00:47	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	SELL	10	31¢	$3	0xe5bbf2…
04-14 07:59:23	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0xd956e5…
04-10 08:44:45	Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month?	Yes	SELL	70	23¢	$16	0xf3a076…
04-10 07:43:51	Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month?	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x39d923…
04-10 07:11:35	Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month?	Yes	BUY	30	34¢	$10	0xb570e7…
04-10 06:10:39	Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month?	Yes	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0xc745e8…
04-07 10:15:15	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	SELL	50	34¢	$17	0x17c168…
04-07 10:15:03	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	Yes	SELL	50	54¢	$27	0x6c636c…
04-07 09:57:49	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	Yes	BUY	50	52¢	$26	0xa7a11d…
04-07 09:55:49	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xe47158…
04-07 09:23:31	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x776e25…
04-07 09:04:29	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	BUY	31	35¢	$11	0xd58959…
04-07 08:58:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	Yes	SELL	50	58¢	$29	0x7d714d…
04-07 08:54:33	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	Yes	BUY	50	56¢	$28	0xd42702…
04-07 08:42:41	spx opens up or down on april 7 2026	Up	SELL	3	47¢	$2	0xddae39…
04-07 08:41:45	spx opens up or down on april 7 2026	Up	BUY	3	47¢	$2	0x346ade…