Fitting-Hubris — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$121

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

64.2%

Resolved

219

Trades

296

lifetime

Volume

$956

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-11

last 05-27 18:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 21 days

Categories

Crypto

63% 79% -$19

Other

36% 35% -$96

Politics

1% 0% -$6

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-27).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Spread: Albacete Balompié (-2.5)	12	$46	231	0	+231	FC Andorra	-$46	04-30 08:31
elon musk of tweets april 11 april 13 140 164	3	$41	21	21	+0	No	+$2	04-13 16:04
highest temperature in miami on april 16 2026 80 81f	3	$24	74	71	+3	Yes	-$2	04-16 17:50
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 29?	3	$23	33	33	+0	No	-$1	04-29 13:49
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 29?	2	$21	28	28	+0	No	+$2	04-29 13:49
elon musk of tweets april 18 april 20 0 39	2	$11	85	81	+4	No	+$2	04-20 06:37
highest temperature in miami on april 16 2026 84 85f	2	$11	6	6	+0	No	+$1	04-17 03:53
highest temperature in atlanta on april 13 2026 82 83f	2	$11	12	11	+0	Yes	+$1	04-13 16:10
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on May 1?	2	$11	125	0	+125	No	-$11	05-01 07:27
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 240 259	2	$10	6	5	+0	No	+$0	04-24 05:15
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?	2	$10	292	0	+292	No	-$10	05-24 21:34
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 26?	1	$9	24	0	+24	Yes	+$15	04-25 18:26
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	2	$9	12	0	+12	Up	-$2	05-26 23:44
highest temperature in atlanta on april 23 2026 82 83f	2	$9	6	6	+0	Yes	+$3	04-24 05:10
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	2	$9	11	0	+11	Up	-$2	05-25 20:49
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 26?	1	$9	25	0	+25	No	-$9	04-25 18:25
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 220 239	3	$8	153	0	+153	No	-$8	04-24 09:02
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on April 26?	1	$8	23	0	+23	Yes	+$15	04-25 13:23
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on April 26?	1	$8	23	0	+23	No	-$8	04-25 13:22
elon musk of tweets april 11 april 13 65 89	2	$6	72	0	+72	No	-$1	04-12 19:15
elon musk of tweets april 18 april 20 40 64	1	$6	21	0	+21	Yes	-$6	04-19 18:08
Solana Up or Down - April 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	2	$5	3	3	+0	Down	+$0	04-28 10:16
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 09:50 UTC	1	$5	10	0	+10	Down	-$5	04-20 09:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 07:00 UTC	1	$5	10	0	+10	Down	+$5	04-20 07:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 09:15 UTC	1	$5	10	0	+10	Up	-$5	04-20 09:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 09:55 UTC	1	$5	10	0	+10	Up	+$5	04-20 09:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 10:25 UTC	1	$5	10	0	+10	Up	-$5	04-20 10:25
highest temperature in toronto on april 19 2026 7c	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	04-19 20:43
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 08:50 UTC	1	$5	10	0	+10	Down	-$5	04-20 08:50
highest temperature in houston on april 19 2026 68 69f	1	$5	7	0	+7	No	+$2	04-19 20:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-27 18:09:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	74¢	$2	0xefbcac…
05-27 18:09:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	74¢	$3	0x482f59…
05-27 17:19:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	6	79¢	$4	0x8b8c85…
05-27 16:59:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$5	0xd5d0b3…
05-27 16:39:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xab92c9…
05-27 16:14:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xed9ec6…
05-27 15:09:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x050b78…
05-27 14:59:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xd5cf9b…
05-27 14:49:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x62f2fd…
05-27 14:39:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	7	62¢	$4	0x07e496…
05-27 14:34:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	4	88¢	$3	0xa90dd9…
05-27 13:04:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x754da5…
05-27 10:59:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x249df5…
05-27 10:54:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	6	81¢	$4	0xc69d0f…
05-27 10:24:49	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xa489ef…
05-27 08:19:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	4	88¢	$4	0x4f8e3d…
05-27 07:04:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x166bd9…
05-26 23:59:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	73¢	$5	0x0b5529…
05-26 23:44:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$5	0x72d0cc…
05-26 23:44:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	7	64¢	$4	0xcf3d53…
05-26 23:19:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	87¢	$5	0x82c07a…
05-26 23:14:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xdc4f4c…
05-26 22:44:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x95bda4…
05-26 19:49:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	6	73¢	$5	0x42201f…
05-26 19:24:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0xe3e4ca…
05-26 18:39:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	87¢	$5	0x4915b5…
05-26 18:34:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	89¢	$5	0xc0a881…
05-26 18:24:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xbc318d…
05-26 18:09:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x8a2355…
05-26 17:44:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	86¢	$5	0x66833d…
05-26 17:14:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$5	0xbf0856…
05-26 16:54:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x00ee9e…
05-26 14:44:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x412837…
05-26 14:19:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0xea4a72…
05-26 13:59:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$5	0x7106b0…
05-26 13:24:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	86¢	$5	0x19b880…
05-26 11:54:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x496bd0…
05-26 11:29:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0xbb81dd…
05-26 10:34:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x2da04f…
05-26 07:24:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xa24914…
05-26 07:19:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	0	88¢	$0	0xadcd43…
05-25 23:54:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	0	91¢	$0	0x6c7a74…
05-25 23:44:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	88¢	$5	0x15e4a1…
05-25 23:39:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x9f1cc3…
05-25 23:29:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x6c9cf1…
05-25 23:14:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0xd597f8…
05-25 22:49:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	87¢	$5	0x20d029…
05-25 22:39:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xe046e2…
05-25 20:49:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x082cdd…
05-25 20:49:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	6	61¢	$4	0x0651c0…
05-25 20:34:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$5	0xc98e42…
05-25 20:19:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0x49a55b…
05-25 20:14:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	74¢	$5	0xb8430a…
05-25 19:54:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x01788d…
05-25 18:59:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xa8d3d7…
05-25 17:44:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	7	66¢	$5	0x7f2e40…
05-25 16:29:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xf6f3b7…
05-25 15:54:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	7	49¢	$3	0x030e05…
05-25 15:19:43	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x598610…
05-25 14:14:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x3054e1…
05-25 14:09:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xaa01ea…
05-25 13:49:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x3f136e…
05-25 12:39:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0xe7512c…
05-25 12:34:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	73¢	$0	0x777b88…
05-25 12:19:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xfc4531…
05-25 11:29:33	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xebbf24…
05-25 10:54:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	6	72¢	$4	0x66b000…
05-25 10:49:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xde73b1…
05-25 09:24:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	8	58¢	$5	0x3dec02…
05-25 09:04:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x5efb74…
05-25 08:24:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x41c1dc…
05-25 07:54:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	6	72¢	$5	0xea8bfc…
05-25 07:44:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x700c38…
05-24 21:34:10	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	198	2¢	$5	0xb6ee48…
05-24 17:52:49	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	94	5¢	$5	0xa7b7d4…
05-03 21:16:56	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	2¢	$1	0xc1ffb7…
05-03 21:09:12	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	101	2¢	$2	0x49dc7c…
05-03 21:09:10	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	2¢	$1	0xb8c888…
05-03 21:08:12	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	2¢	$1	0x5d9528…
05-03 21:07:42	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	2¢	$1	0xefaae7…
05-01 07:27:44	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on May 1?	Yes	BUY	75	1¢	$1	0x9410b1…
04-30 14:55:10	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on April 30?	Yes	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x2e663b…
04-30 14:04:14	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on May 1?	Yes	BUY	198	1¢	$2	0x146424…
04-30 13:35:50	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on May 1?	Yes	BUY	211	1¢	$1	0xb9708a…
04-30 13:35:14	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on May 1?	Yes	BUY	99	2¢	$2	0xa494b3…
04-30 13:34:26	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on May 1?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0xa5ba0d…
04-30 08:31:44	Spread: Albacete Balompié (-2.5)	Albacete Balompié	BUY	63	5¢	$3	0xa8e5b4…
04-30 03:35:42	Spread: Albacete Balompié (-2.5)	Albacete Balompié	BUY	34	6¢	$2	0x294444…
04-29 20:03:32	Spread: Albacete Balompié (-2.5)	Albacete Balompié	BUY	16	10¢	$2	0x918c9b…
04-29 13:49:48	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 29?	Yes	SELL	28	39¢	$11	0xfebdee…
04-29 13:49:36	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 29?	Yes	SELL	33	34¢	$11	0xd85b57…
04-29 09:53:46	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 29?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$1	0x888ae4…
04-28 20:34:20	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 29?	Yes	BUY	28	37¢	$10	0x2dab26…
04-28 20:32:34	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 29?	Yes	BUY	28	33¢	$9	0xa1bb2f…
04-28 20:22:16	Spread: Albacete Balompié (-2.5)	Albacete Balompié	BUY	24	8¢	$2	0xf90492…
04-28 16:59:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x2ff3c2…
04-28 16:52:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x3d693d…
04-28 16:34:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x946bfe…
04-28 16:25:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	SELL	2	18¢	$0	0xa09c84…
04-28 16:23:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x0f2ae3…