Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$754

Unrealized P&L

-$17

Hit rate

48.6%

Resolved

2,277

Trades

3,168

lifetime

Volume

$25.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-08-01

last 10-29 14:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 72 days

Categories

Crypto

58% 47% -$775

Other

32% 49% -$178

Politics

9% 100% +$200

Tech

2% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

67 active days in 12wk • peak 155 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (8) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	+1	$2	14¢	$0	-$2	10-24 22:56
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	No	+0	$9	98¢	$0	-$8	10-23 20:26
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+0	$8	95¢	$0	-$7	10-26 14:51

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1?	66	$2.1K	2,148	1,948	+200	No	+$5	10-19 12:49
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	8	$764	800	800	+0	open	—	10-27 08:37
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	32	$636	550	550	+0	open	—	10-27 07:50
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	16	$635	921	700	+221	Yes	-$116	10-19 10:03
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	24	$499	486	485	+1	open	—	10-24 22:56
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	4	$390	400	400	+0	open	—	10-26 10:19
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	12	$332	377	164	+213	Yes	+$200	10-18 12:24
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026?	20	$299	339	339	+0	No	-$10	10-18 14:54
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026?	17	$292	298	292	+6	open	—	10-26 20:44
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	6	$275	240	240	+0	open	—	10-29 00:01
Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?	11	$271	229	229	+0	open	—	10-27 09:42
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	14	$250	205	205	+0	open	—	10-25 22:01
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?	15	$242	266	266	+0	open	—	10-26 17:28
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	16	$181	220	220	+0	No	-$13	10-19 06:13
Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	10	$166	159	158	+1	Yes	-$11	10-26 20:17
Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	13	$159	160	160	+0	open	—	10-23 04:56
Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	11	$123	156	156	+0	Yes	-$11	10-19 07:33
Will Vitality Win the PGL Masters Bucharest 2026?	7	$116	89	89	+0	open	—	10-25 13:22
Turek flips Hinson for Iowa Senate by November 2?	8	$101	124	124	+0	open	—	10-29 10:44
Republican Senate odds dip to 30% by October 31?	2	$81	50	50	+0	open	—	10-19 00:51
Eritrea invades Ethiopia by October 31?	7	$77	60	60	+0	open	—	10-29 07:38
Will the Republicans win Sedgwick County in the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	17	$73	67	67	+0	open	—	10-18 20:50
Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (HIGH) 103.00 in October?	7	$71	62	62	+0	open	—	10-18 21:07
Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	4	$69	50	50	+0	open	—	10-19 02:07
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	4	$62	40	38	+2	open	—	10-24 11:13
US imports Russian diesel by November 15?	3	$62	50	50	+0	open	—	10-29 01:15
Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	7	$57	48	48	+0	open	—	10-23 23:09
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on October 31?	6	$57	40	40	+0	open	—	10-28 19:07
Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	4	$56	70	70	+0	Yes	-$5	10-26 16:54
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	5	$55	65	65	+0	open	—	10-23 20:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 14:51:02	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kansas be between 1,100,000 and 1,200,000?	Yes	BUY	13	45¢	$6	0x9959f6…
10-29 14:51:02	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kansas be between 1,100,000 and 1,200,000?	Yes	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0x0dd334…
10-29 14:46:16	Solana Up or Down - October 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x644c39…
10-29 10:44:31	Turek flips Hinson for Iowa Senate by November 2?	No	SELL	38	46¢	$18	0x87d380…
10-29 09:54:01	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 6 and 12 hours?	Yes	SELL	34	11¢	$4	0xcf41c2…
10-29 09:54:01	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 6 and 12 hours?	Yes	SELL	0	11¢	$0	0xcc43ae…
10-29 09:50:37	Turek flips Hinson for Iowa Senate by November 2?	No	SELL	10	47¢	$5	0xd51fd4…
10-29 09:07:58	Turek flips Hinson for Iowa Senate by November 2?	No	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0x39e9c8…
10-29 09:03:13	Turek flips Hinson for Iowa Senate by November 2?	Yes	SELL	50	35¢	$17	0x5fcbfb…
10-29 09:03:13	Turek flips Hinson for Iowa Senate by November 2?	No	BUY	50	64¢	$32	0x369c46…
10-29 07:38:34	Eritrea invades Ethiopia by October 31?	Yes	SELL	11	2¢	$0	0x339022…
10-29 01:19:11	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on October 31?	No	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0xd03eec…
10-29 01:16:16	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	22	53¢	$12	0x52c0c2…
10-29 01:15:50	US imports Russian diesel by November 15?	Yes	SELL	50	59¢	$30	0x34e006…
10-29 01:01:16	US imports Russian diesel by November 15?	Yes	BUY	13	64¢	$8	0xb06f83…
10-29 01:01:16	US imports Russian diesel by November 15?	Yes	BUY	37	64¢	$24	0x7cd873…
10-29 00:22:23	Turek flips Hinson for Iowa Senate by November 2?	Yes	BUY	50	36¢	$18	0xc967e6…
10-29 00:02:16	BNB Up or Down - October 28, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xedcb6b…
10-29 00:01:58	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	No	SELL	80	79¢	$63	0x337516…
10-29 00:01:19	BNB Up or Down - October 28, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0x5d5d33…
10-28 22:57:14	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	No	BUY	80	80¢	$64	0x3c1b45…
10-28 20:16:19	BNB Up or Down - October 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	18	54¢	$10	0x02fe2f…
10-28 19:46:25	BNB Up or Down - October 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x531e2a…
10-28 19:46:16	BNB Up or Down - October 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xdd2ba6…
10-28 19:23:10	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on October 31?	No	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0x8abf9f…
10-28 19:23:08	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on October 31?	No	BUY	13	45¢	$6	0x309b95…
10-28 19:07:59	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on October 31?	No	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0x2b8124…
10-28 19:00:25	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 6 and 12 hours?	Yes	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0xd6a8e2…
10-28 19:00:25	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 6 and 12 hours?	Yes	BUY	4	14¢	$1	0x9f5215…
10-28 19:00:19	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 6 and 12 hours?	Yes	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0x4f2e6f…
10-28 19:00:19	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 6 and 12 hours?	Yes	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0x35e88e…
10-28 18:49:07	Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 7?	Yes	SELL	12	29¢	$4	0xcee1cf…
10-28 18:37:41	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on October 31?	No	SELL	15	65¢	$10	0x7accca…
10-28 18:35:50	Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 7?	Yes	SELL	8	29¢	$2	0x069145…
10-28 18:22:47	Eritrea invades Ethiopia by October 31?	No	SELL	40	96¢	$38	0xe6562f…
10-28 16:35:59	Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 7?	Yes	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0x8ed3df…
10-28 15:53:04	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on October 31?	Yes	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0xc5c254…
10-28 15:28:49	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	No	SELL	80	69¢	$55	0xecf04f…
10-28 15:23:46	Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	Yes	SELL	50	15¢	$8	0xc687a5…
10-28 15:20:35	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	No	BUY	80	80¢	$64	0xd94496…
10-28 14:09:16	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x68a035…
10-28 14:09:14	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on October 31?	No	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0x20ed9b…
10-28 12:39:55	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	Yes	SELL	80	18¢	$14	0xa190b3…
10-28 12:34:17	Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	Yes	BUY	50	27¢	$14	0xbf327f…
10-28 12:32:13	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	Yes	BUY	80	18¢	$14	0x99a403…
10-28 12:07:04	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on October 31?	No	SELL	20	73¢	$15	0xf3b5d0…
10-28 11:36:58	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on October 31?	No	BUY	12	75¢	$9	0xf88d92…
10-28 11:36:58	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on October 31?	No	BUY	8	75¢	$6	0x8fb8c8…
10-28 10:19:31	Turek flips Hinson for Iowa Senate by November 2?	Yes	SELL	24	20¢	$5	0xd677d1…
10-28 09:08:41	Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 7?	No	SELL	20	38¢	$8	0xf25c87…
10-28 08:20:16	Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 7?	No	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0xf4d6cb…
10-28 07:12:25	Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 7?	Yes	SELL	11	39¢	$4	0x21eda3…
10-28 07:00:47	Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 7?	Yes	SELL	6	39¢	$2	0x79ce28…
10-28 07:00:22	Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 7?	Yes	SELL	3	39¢	$1	0x733958…
10-28 06:04:23	Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 7?	Yes	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0xa22832…
10-27 22:08:47	Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0xf53ced…
10-27 20:50:41	Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	13	32¢	$4	0x543a8b…
10-27 19:36:00	Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	37	32¢	$12	0xe60d90…
10-27 16:56:08	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-08 House election by 10%-15%?	Yes	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0xabf759…
10-27 14:07:14	Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	Yes	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0x0af7e6…
10-27 13:25:21	Walmart (WMT) Q3 US comp sales (ex-fuel) growth 4% to 5.5%?	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x2aa7e8…
10-27 12:46:23	BNB Up or Down - October 27, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x2cfbd4…
10-27 12:46:15	BNB Up or Down - October 27, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	15	50¢	$8	0xb09dd2…
10-27 12:31:26	Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	SELL	50	31¢	$16	0x67efe2…
10-27 11:39:03	Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0x9ccc1e…
10-27 11:39:03	Gavin Newsom Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	No	SELL	19	70¢	$13	0x3241f7…
10-27 10:59:51	Gavin Newsom Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	No	SELL	1	71¢	$1	0x74c843…
10-27 10:51:20	Gavin Newsom Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	No	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x68c1a8…
10-27 10:16:17	BNB Up or Down - October 27, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0xdf8ad0…
10-27 09:42:11	Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	42	63¢	$26	0xdaecf4…
10-27 09:33:47	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-08 House election by 10%-15%?	Yes	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0xe23452…
10-27 09:33:47	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-08 House election by 10%-15%?	Yes	BUY	0	37¢	$0	0x500de6…
10-27 09:24:14	Walmart (WMT) Q3 US comp sales (ex-fuel) growth 4% to 5.5%?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x0e6251…
10-27 09:21:24	Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	50	44¢	$22	0x753ac9…
10-27 09:01:18	Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	63¢	$5	0x441d34…
10-27 08:41:45	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CT-04 House election by 30%-35%?	Yes	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0x0b03df…
10-27 08:37:53	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	110	52¢	$57	0x24fefb…
10-27 08:16:17	BNB Up or Down - October 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x8bd814…
10-27 07:50:59	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	29¢	$2	0x6c6d2c…
10-27 07:50:18	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4	29¢	$1	0xb67ff4…
10-27 07:50:18	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	40	29¢	$12	0x0b6fa7…
10-27 07:31:17	BNB Up or Down - October 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xe9ffd4…
10-26 20:55:20	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	90	50¢	$45	0xc1d37d…
10-26 20:44:38	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026?	No	SELL	51	56¢	$28	0x702638…
10-26 20:17:23	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	No	BUY	1	32¢	$0	0xf49a2a…
10-26 20:12:23	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	18	46¢	$8	0xdbeb26…
10-26 20:12:23	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	32	46¢	$15	0x5d20d5…
10-26 20:02:44	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	42¢	$21	0x2acf75…
10-26 20:02:44	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026?	No	BUY	50	57¢	$28	0x2acf75…
10-26 19:58:15	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	42¢	$21	0xd0a404…
10-26 19:57:03	Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	67¢	$34	0xe6a37b…
10-26 19:42:00	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	200	52¢	$104	0x25844f…
10-26 18:57:38	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026?	No	SELL	20	56¢	$11	0xf90871…
10-26 18:44:41	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026?	No	SELL	4	67¢	$3	0x4c0f09…
10-26 18:01:18	BNB Up or Down - October 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x73982a…
10-26 17:58:45	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026?	No	SELL	25	67¢	$17	0xacf88e…
10-26 17:53:21	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026?	No	BUY	28	72¢	$20	0xabc96e…
10-26 17:53:21	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026?	No	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0x80ac90…
10-26 17:53:21	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026?	No	BUY	9	72¢	$6	0x6739f3…
10-26 17:46:14	BNB Up or Down - October 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x2b3d83…