Happy-Garb — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$73

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

65.8%

Resolved

210

Trades

423

lifetime

Volume

$10.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$25

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-20

last 05-19 10:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 71 days

Categories

Crypto

60% 49% -$23

Other

28% 19% +$216

Politics

9% 18% -$81

Sports

3% 22% -$39

Tech

0% 0% $0

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-19).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	11	$491	891	763	+128	Yes	-$1	05-15 23:44
another us government shutdown by february 14	7	$456	1,310	1,310	+0	No	+$275	02-15 02:54
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 260 279	10	$452	1,410	876	+534	No	+$46	02-06 16:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	4	$439	617	617	+0	Down	+$23	05-07 06:05
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 280 299	11	$429	391	391	+0	Yes	+$102	02-06 16:17
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 03:50 UTC	1	$318	327	0	+327	Up	+$10	03-21 03:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 03:35 UTC	1	$315	318	0	+318	Down	+$3	03-21 03:39
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026?	7	$303	3,509	1,959	+1,550	No	-$69	05-14 19:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	2	$296	492	492	+0	Up	+$37	05-07 05:56
nba nyk bkn 2026 03 20	5	$270	430	347	+83	Knicks	-$4	03-21 01:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	2	$258	397	397	+0	Down	+$35	05-07 05:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 02:45 UTC	1	$249	259	0	+259	Up	+$11	03-21 02:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	2	$199	361	361	+0	Down	+$47	05-07 05:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	2	$195	661	661	+0	Up	-$118	05-07 06:17
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 03:20 UTC	1	$191	248	0	+248	Up	+$57	03-21 03:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	2	$152	277	277	+0	Up	+$20	05-14 10:16
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	5	$146	1,206	1,103	+102	No	+$116	04-13 17:26
elon musk of tweets february 5 february 7 65 89	6	$144	733	733	+0	No	-$26	02-07 09:01
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 01:15 UTC	1	$142	206	0	+206	Down	+$64	04-13 01:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	3	$134	433	433	+0	Up	+$13	05-14 10:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	2	$134	271	271	+0	Down	+$35	05-07 05:22
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 02:35 UTC	1	$132	249	0	+249	Up	+$118	03-21 02:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 01:05 UTC	1	$128	143	0	+143	Down	+$15	04-13 01:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 22:50 UTC	1	$126	128	0	+128	Up	+$2	04-12 22:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 21:30 UTC	1	$122	126	0	+126	Down	+$4	04-12 21:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	2	$117	200	200	+0	Down	+$18	05-14 09:51
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 02:10 UTC	1	$117	130	0	+130	Down	+$13	03-21 02:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-13 09:10 UTC	2	$116	101	100	+1	Down	+$37	02-13 09:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	2	$116	410	410	+0	Up	+$29	05-15 06:38
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-13 08:15 UTC	1	$111	793	0	+793	Up	-$111	02-13 08:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-19 10:55:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	26	21¢	$5	0xd0705f…
05-19 09:01:44	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,013	1¢	$6	0x7284ea…
05-19 00:45:31	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	191	1¢	$1	0xaa08af…
05-19 00:45:15	Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt?	Yes	SELL	65	2¢	$1	0xa8dc64…
05-18 20:51:20	Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt?	Yes	BUY	65	3¢	$2	0xb695e9…
05-18 20:00:19	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0xac5422…
05-18 19:55:03	Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17)	Yes	SELL	33	10¢	$3	0x7cca04…
05-18 18:29:18	Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17)	Yes	BUY	33	9¢	$3	0xdda498…
05-18 18:29:00	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	16	2¢	$0	0xa41d40…
05-18 18:28:50	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	158	2¢	$3	0x3447b0…
05-18 17:02:44	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	1¢	$2	0x763172…
05-18 17:02:26	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	116	2¢	$2	0xf1cb36…
05-18 12:00:06	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	131	2¢	$3	0x427d74…
05-18 11:59:34	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	167	4¢	$6	0x7b962c…
05-18 10:05:05	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	158	1¢	$2	0xf06341…
05-18 10:04:20	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	221	3¢	$7	0xf50a76…
05-18 06:42:58	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	10¢	$4	0xa81de4…
05-18 06:42:28	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	603	1¢	$5	0xb821d3…
05-18 02:01:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	BUY	35	73¢	$26	0xc5c437…
05-18 01:39:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	SELL	33	80¢	$26	0x592291…
05-18 01:36:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	33	19¢	$6	0xed3a0f…
05-18 01:32:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	BUY	7	58¢	$4	0x02fd93…
05-18 01:24:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	SELL	4	97¢	$4	0x4156c7…
05-18 01:22:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x2fb3d2…
05-18 01:17:07	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	253	1¢	$3	0x0a4452…
05-17 10:18:19	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	603	2¢	$15	0x669306…
05-16 17:26:00	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on May 17?	Yes	BUY	2,320	0¢	$2	0x3c5c2f…
05-16 16:09:56	Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?	Yes	SELL	963	0¢	$2	0x8672ba…
05-16 09:38:26	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	253	3¢	$9	0x707a63…
05-15 23:44:27	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	128	28¢	$36	0xead71a…
05-15 23:42:16	Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?	Yes	BUY	630	1¢	$5	0xe69444…
05-15 23:42:00	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	59	72¢	$42	0x32cc73…
05-15 17:04:43	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	14¢	$8	0x1ec522…
05-15 17:04:03	Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0x489e31…
05-15 17:03:14	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x2c8b5c…
05-15 16:05:59	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0xb105b5…
05-15 16:03:26	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	19¢	$3	0x217330…
05-15 13:08:33	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0xf6076c…
05-15 13:01:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	SELL	69	3¢	$2	0x0367e3…
05-15 13:00:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	69	15¢	$10	0x3e7eec…
05-15 07:10:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	47	19¢	$9	0x04b012…
05-15 07:09:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0xa6354b…
05-15 07:05:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0xea14e7…
05-15 06:44:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	SELL	176	2¢	$4	0x6fb235…
05-15 06:40:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	176	37¢	$65	0xfecb64…
05-15 06:38:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	SELL	410	18¢	$72	0xe39773…
05-15 06:37:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	410	11¢	$44	0x0b970a…
05-15 06:32:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	SELL	42	29¢	$12	0x105fe3…
05-15 06:32:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	SELL	159	23¢	$37	0x75a255…
05-15 06:30:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	BUY	201	13¢	$26	0x8605e1…
05-15 06:11:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	SELL	63	46¢	$29	0x794350…
05-15 06:10:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	63	35¢	$22	0x480f96…
05-15 06:03:45	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	441	6¢	$24	0xb921e3…
05-15 05:30:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Up	BUY	87	23¢	$20	0x75e8ee…
05-15 05:21:34	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	441	7¢	$30	0x3e3d43…
05-15 05:17:31	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	271	20¢	$54	0xe3d8dc…
05-15 02:01:22	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 15?	No	BUY	15	14¢	$2	0xb30c4d…
05-15 01:46:24	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,150	0¢	$2	0x23af1d…
05-14 19:29:01	Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,550	0¢	$2	0xf5a3bc…
05-14 19:28:38	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,180	0¢	$1	0xd00500…
05-14 18:20:13	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	271	25¢	$68	0xa09213…
05-14 18:19:48	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	93	76¢	$71	0xb100a9…
05-14 17:55:45	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	93	78¢	$72	0xe8e912…
05-14 17:09:40	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	326	23¢	$75	0x05d057…
05-14 14:45:36	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,330	0¢	$9	0xc9ffe1…
05-14 14:45:15	Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026?	Yes	SELL	321	3¢	$10	0xb9d600…
05-14 12:57:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	103	14¢	$14	0x083645…
05-14 10:41:04	Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026?	Yes	BUY	321	6¢	$20	0x1f6ce6…
05-14 10:40:33	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	326	18¢	$60	0xa68b62…
05-14 10:16:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	SELL	277	31¢	$86	0x534d8e…
05-14 10:16:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	BUY	277	24¢	$66	0xfba0e8…
05-14 10:01:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	SELL	433	17¢	$74	0x8765cd…
05-14 10:00:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	123	14¢	$17	0x5c92e2…
05-14 10:00:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	310	14¢	$43	0x4429f2…
05-14 09:51:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	SELL	200	34¢	$68	0xa7f393…
05-14 09:50:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	200	25¢	$50	0x968c5e…
05-14 09:31:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	SELL	142	39¢	$55	0x695e5d…
05-14 09:30:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	BUY	142	29¢	$41	0xda20b2…
05-14 09:09:24	Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026?	Yes	SELL	745	6¢	$45	0xf45682…
05-14 09:08:44	Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026?	Yes	BUY	745	8¢	$58	0xe6ba3c…
05-14 09:01:40	Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026?	Yes	SELL	894	7¢	$62	0x0ecc6a…
05-14 07:47:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	64	19¢	$12	0x306f08…
05-14 07:46:10	Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?	No	SELL	139	9¢	$13	0xb01238…
05-14 05:22:59	Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026?	Yes	BUY	894	12¢	$107	0x1b9ba4…
05-14 05:14:23	Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?	No	BUY	139	11¢	$15	0x9bda74…
05-13 14:04:26	Will FK Obolon Kyiv win on 2026-05-13?	Yes	BUY	24	5¢	$1	0x83634a…
05-13 12:47:49	Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	257	0¢	$1	0x2c4cf2…
05-12 20:28:31	Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026?	Yes	SELL	232	0¢	$0	0x0d9bd4…
05-12 03:44:27	Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	257	1¢	$4	0x1e6086…
05-12 01:17:01	Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	232	1¢	$3	0xafef5b…
05-11 10:58:51	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 11?	Yes	BUY	23	10¢	$2	0x27d6d5…
05-11 10:58:31	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	SELL	260	1¢	$3	0x33fae2…
05-11 10:57:09	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	BUY	260	1¢	$3	0xdb5aa8…
05-11 10:56:25	Will James Comey leave the country by May 15?	Yes	SELL	845	0¢	$1	0x0aed6a…
05-11 10:56:18	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 11?	Yes	SELL	32	7¢	$2	0x845d5b…
05-11 09:49:20	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 11?	Yes	BUY	32	9¢	$3	0x160b62…
05-10 15:47:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	19	7¢	$1	0x65887d…
05-10 15:38:43	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 11?	Yes	SELL	367	0¢	$1	0x69a144…
05-10 13:22:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	40	11¢	$4	0x5cd3b7…
05-10 13:01:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	SELL	18	28¢	$5	0x95a40b…