Realized P&L
-$1.76K
Unrealized P&L
+$332
Hit rate
4.4%
Resolved
1,250
Trades
11,106
lifetime
Volume
$110.2K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$10
Open exposure
$1.82K
30 positions
First seen
2026-09-06
last 10-30 10:32
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 32 days
Categories
Other
69% 9% -$1,412
Politics
23% 4% -$230
Tech
3% 5% -$64
Sports
3% 0% -$34
Crypto
2% 0% -$17
Pop-Culture
0% 0% $0
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
39 active days in 12wk • peak 1014 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026? Yes +140 $24 96¢ $135 +$110 10-13 00:45
Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes +220 $128 52¢ $114 -$14 10-23 02:17
Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027? No +220 $96 48¢ $106 +$11 10-23 02:17
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? Yes +100 $89 98¢ $98 +$10 10-13 05:11
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? No +95 $61 94¢ $89 +$28 10-13 01:13
Will no next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs be appointed by February 28, 2027? Yes +150 $61 52¢ $78 +$16 10-24 09:36
Will no next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs be appointed by February 28, 2027? No +150 $90 48¢ $72 -$18 10-24 09:36
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)? Yes +85 $47 84¢ $71 +$24 10-17 10:17
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026? Yes +70 $49 99¢ $69 +$20 10-12 18:09
ilhan omar federally charged by october 31 2026 No +70 $63 98¢ $68 +$5 10-13 05:16
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? No +69 $52 99¢ $68 +$16 10-22 07:48
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T? No +70 $43 80¢ $56 +$12 10-12 15:39
US imports Russian diesel by October 31? No +50 $41 100¢ $50 +$9 10-13 01:02
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? No +60 $27 82¢ $50 +$23 10-07 19:13
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? No +50 $10 98¢ $49 +$39 10-12 19:37
Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2026? No +50 $49 96¢ $48 -$1 10-16 16:22
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? No +50 $41 94¢ $47 +$6 10-12 17:49
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in December 2026 (ET)? No +50 $42 92¢ $46 +$4 10-17 10:17
Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +70 $52 66¢ $46 -$6 10-23 15:57
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? No +50 $48 91¢ $46 -$2 10-14 22:58
us x iran ceasefire continues through november 2 Yes +50 $48 90¢ $45 -$3 10-29 00:31
Will Papertrade launch a token by December 31, 2026? No +50 $28 89¢ $44 +$17 10-18 05:47
Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? No +50 $45 87¢ $43 -$2 10-13 02:26
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30? No +50 $37 85¢ $42 +$6 10-12 15:28
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027? No +59 $11 71¢ $42 +$31 10-07 13:46
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? No +50 $37 82¢ $41 +$4 10-12 20:03
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? Yes +55 $47 70¢ $39 -$8 10-25 23:53
No one announced as next James Bond? No +50 $36 77¢ $39 +$3 10-12 19:44
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? No +50 $45 77¢ $38 -$7 10-12 18:05
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? Yes +57 $39 64¢ $37 -$2 10-19 21:57