Smoggy-Planet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4

Unrealized P&L

-$16

Hit rate

86.7%

Resolved

Trades

247

lifetime

Volume

$26.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$108

Open exposure

$158

1 position

First seen

2026-04-10

last 07-11 12:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

39% — —

Sports

24% 0% $-8

Crypto

20% 100% +$4

Other

17% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 19 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes		-280	$-142	56¢	$-158	$-16	07-11 12:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	10	$6.4K	3,665	3,665	+0	open	—	06-11 03:34
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?	10	$2.3K	4,283	633	+3,650	open	—	04-27 01:45
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch?	8	$1.6K	1,369	1,369	+0	open	—	04-22 06:02
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	6	$1.5K	800	800	+0	open	—	05-27 00:48
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	4	$1.4K	715	715	+0	open	—	05-25 06:54
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	8	$916	800	1,278	-478	open	—	05-23 03:46
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch?	6	$888	450	450	+0	open	—	04-13 14:37
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?	10	$754	389	389	+0	open	—	05-26 01:15
wti closes above 94 on april 17 2026	5	$707	534	418	+116	open	—	04-18 03:04
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	12	$691	960	660	+300	open	—	04-23 06:31
wti closes above 85 on april 20 2026	2	$575	312	310	+2	open	—	04-20 21:53
USD.AI FDV above $100M one day after launch?	2	$550	282	282	+0	open	—	04-21 06:51
wti closes above 92 on april 20 2026	3	$525	270	269	+1	open	—	04-20 21:55
wti up or down on april 17 2026	11	$466	1,300	1,292	+8	open	—	04-17 21:06
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	4	$464	259	280	-21	open	—	05-26 01:15
wti closes above 87 on april 17 2026	6	$455	8,282	224	+8,058	open	—	04-18 04:06
USD.AI FDV above $1B one day after launch?	2	$372	190	190	+0	open	—	04-22 05:59
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$360	200	200	+0	open	—	05-28 06:22
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	2	$352	200	200	+0	open	—	05-25 08:27
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?	5	$343	406	306	+100	open	—	05-25 18:28
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	7	$339	381	381	+0	open	—	04-18 05:57
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?	2	$328	200	200	+0	open	—	05-25 08:29
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	3	$300	300	595	-295	open	—	05-26 00:43
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?	4	$269	466	200	+266	open	—	05-22 04:17
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31?	7	$236	120	126	-6	open	—	05-26 01:16
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	5	$233	100	150	-50	open	—	05-24 07:23
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	6	$212	200	200	+0	open	—	04-18 06:08
wti closes above 84 on april 20 2026	2	$208	110	110	+0	open	—	04-20 21:53
wti closes above 86 on april 20 2026	4	$202	230	0	+230	open	—	04-20 18:55
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?	2	$200	400	0	+400	open	—	04-18 06:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-11 12:49:34	Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	76	60¢	$46	0x12b999…
07-08 08:20:14	Surf FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	11	71¢	$8	0x434800…
07-08 08:19:52	Surf FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	10	72¢	$7	0x52eace…
07-01 06:28:34	Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	102	44¢	$45	0x031484…
07-01 06:28:10	Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	54	49¢	$26	0xe0b3b5…
06-11 03:34:31	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	Knicks	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x840fc6…
06-11 03:33:27	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	Knicks	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x1356f0…
06-11 03:32:21	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	Knicks	SELL	19	78¢	$15	0x607d97…
06-11 03:22:16	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	Knicks	SELL	75	44¢	$33	0x515e06…
06-11 03:11:58	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	Knicks	BUY	100	13¢	$13	0x05ed92…
06-11 02:46:39	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	Spurs	SELL	2,881	88¢	$2,535	0x214a5a…
06-11 02:46:33	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	Spurs	SELL	11	88¢	$10	0x8e8845…
06-11 02:46:19	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	Spurs	SELL	628	88¢	$553	0xe8551b…
06-11 02:46:18	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	Spurs	SELL	35	88¢	$31	0xb98676…
06-11 02:40:22	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	Spurs	BUY	3,555	90¢	$3,200	0xaf3cf4…
06-11 02:22:21	Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	84	62¢	$52	0x67fa5c…
06-04 05:51:12	tea fdv above 40m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0xc4f38f…
06-04 05:51:00	tea fdv above 40m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	92	10¢	$9	0x1fa968…
05-31 11:12:07	Surf FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	14	68¢	$10	0xb0d45c…
05-30 08:18:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	34¢	$68	0x2832c8…
05-30 03:05:57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	34¢	$68	0x561d47…
05-29 16:06:41	Surf FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x4d8fd3…
05-28 06:22:59	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	92¢	$184	0x4134e1…
05-28 04:09:17	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	88¢	$176	0x64d348…
05-28 03:57:11	Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	36	75¢	$27	0xf835b9…
05-27 06:35:41	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	78	77¢	$60	0x549aee…
05-27 06:32:13	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	77¢	$17	0xaa724e…
05-27 03:55:48	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	77¢	$77	0x9bdcb7…
05-27 00:48:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	380	99¢	$377	0x65df47…
05-27 00:47:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	400	99¢	$397	0xcc9978…
05-27 00:46:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x32ff9d…
05-26 01:16:54	Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31?	No	SELL	13	98¢	$13	0x567361…
05-26 01:16:35	Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31?	No	SELL	73	98¢	$72	0x7b0f22…
05-26 01:15:40	Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	280	97¢	$272	0xf730c9…
05-26 01:15:25	Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	389	100¢	$388	0x00a54a…
05-26 00:44:07	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	Yes	SELL	148	1¢	$1	0xb4d4c7…
05-26 00:43:56	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	Yes	SELL	200	1¢	$2	0x0a4b87…
05-26 00:43:46	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	Yes	SELL	595	1¢	$5	0x3c38b7…
05-25 18:28:37	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?	No	SELL	100	38¢	$38	0x979efd…
05-25 14:39:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x1c72a6…
05-25 13:55:58	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	Yes	BUY	200	96¢	$192	0x048c14…
05-25 13:53:10	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?	No	SELL	100	36¢	$36	0xfa96cf…
05-25 13:28:12	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	Yes	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0x8b592b…
05-25 12:58:12	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	Yes	BUY	8	95¢	$8	0xa8f9cd…
05-25 12:50:30	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	Yes	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xa0ce21…
05-25 09:38:45	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	Yes	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0xf97ba6…
05-25 09:21:48	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	Yes	BUY	42	95¢	$40	0xc3bb51…
05-25 09:17:29	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	Yes	BUY	58	95¢	$55	0x08faea…
05-25 08:29:55	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	Yes	SELL	200	79¢	$158	0xce7b12…
05-25 08:29:36	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?	Yes	SELL	200	84¢	$168	0x6587ad…
05-25 08:27:56	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	Yes	SELL	200	89¢	$178	0xcdee45…
05-25 08:12:43	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	200	92¢	$184	0xc973f6…
05-25 06:57:15	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	400	92¢	$368	0x495f1a…
05-25 06:54:45	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	715	100¢	$713	0x6fc0e6…
05-25 06:44:18	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	400	100¢	$398	0x653e2a…
05-25 06:33:52	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?	No	SELL	106	40¢	$42	0xa75a13…
05-25 04:35:36	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?	Yes	BUY	200	80¢	$160	0x2c1ff6…
05-24 14:13:17	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	Yes	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0xf95bbf…
05-24 11:35:03	Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31?	No	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0xbb2b51…
05-24 10:39:28	Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31?	No	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0x57ec91…
05-24 07:23:00	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xe88562…
05-24 06:46:08	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	227	98¢	$223	0x27dc10…
05-24 06:38:29	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	87	98¢	$86	0x513190…
05-23 17:41:19	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?	No	BUY	200	55¢	$110	0xe5d2ab…
05-23 15:37:42	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?	No	BUY	206	57¢	$117	0x5c9800…
05-23 06:34:53	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	BUY	86	89¢	$77	0xa422eb…
05-23 06:34:42	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	BUY	8	89¢	$7	0x905cc7…
05-23 06:18:31	Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	20	73¢	$14	0x3b2a18…
05-23 06:16:50	Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	159	73¢	$116	0x9704aa…
05-23 04:07:42	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x279c8a…
05-23 04:03:27	Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	45	97¢	$44	0x4cf944…
05-23 03:46:30	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	SELL	678	100¢	$676	0xc1925e…
05-23 03:42:16	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	SELL	50	88¢	$44	0xd772d1…
05-23 01:48:24	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	BUY	200	98¢	$197	0xa7d6c7…
05-23 01:45:29	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	58	2¢	$1	0x0eb18a…
05-22 11:13:58	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	417	3¢	$12	0xced6a3…
05-22 10:03:56	Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	80	77¢	$62	0x6bbbbd…
05-22 08:14:28	Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31?	No	BUY	40	93¢	$37	0x5560f3…
05-22 07:00:46	Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31?	No	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x272a15…
05-22 06:39:56	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	BUY	400	4¢	$16	0x5dc174…
05-22 06:38:25	Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31?	No	BUY	59	95¢	$56	0x645ac6…
05-22 04:17:47	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?	No	SELL	200	0¢	$0	0x419ba4…
05-21 11:14:04	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?	No	BUY	200	4¢	$7	0xafa9a2…
05-21 10:26:45	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	100	3¢	$3	0xc8fb10…
05-21 10:24:22	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?	Yes	BUY	265	98¢	$261	0xf345aa…
05-21 10:20:13	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	25	5¢	$1	0x7c589c…
05-21 09:57:26	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0x1b0c40…
05-21 06:52:56	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xebc5d0…
05-20 14:12:57	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 20?	Yes	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0x6a9b82…
05-20 13:57:03	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 20?	Yes	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0x67e1a5…
05-20 12:01:09	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 20?	Yes	SELL	5	82¢	$4	0x75dafb…
05-20 08:41:34	Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	15¢	$3	0xf0d1e0…
05-20 06:18:25	Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x22275c…
05-20 05:58:10	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 20?	Yes	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0xfbce4e…
05-19 07:43:37	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 19?	Down	SELL	105	34¢	$36	0x89e0eb…
05-19 07:43:27	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 19?	Down	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xa0f5f2…
05-19 07:40:37	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 19?	Down	BUY	100	34¢	$34	0x094914…
05-19 06:09:58	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 19?	Down	SELL	100	41¢	$41	0x90891d…
05-19 06:02:35	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 19?	Down	BUY	64	43¢	$27	0xa6297f…
05-19 06:01:41	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 19?	Down	BUY	36	43¢	$16	0x9e8fbc…