Granular-Budget — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$862

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

54.6%

Resolved

1,797

Trades

2,591

lifetime

Volume

$23.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 10-21 06:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 100 days

Categories

Crypto

98% 50% -$837

Other

1% 46% -$49

Politics

1% 14% +$24

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-12 16:30 UTC	14	$452	870	0	+870	Up	+$418	02-12 16:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 16:10 UTC	7	$336	600	0	+600	Up	-$336	02-17 16:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-14 14:50 UTC	1	$300	582	0	+582	Up	-$300	02-14 14:45
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	2	$250	143	143	+0	Yes	+$30	09-20 20:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-14 16:55 UTC	27	$228	400	0	+400	Up	-$228	02-14 16:55
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 09:15 UTC	1	$200	435	0	+435	Up	+$235	01-28 09:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 16:00 UTC	9	$190	345	0	+345	Up	-$190	02-17 16:00
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-06 13:00 UTC	1	$189	450	0	+450	Up	+$261	02-06 13:02
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-31 22:00 UTC	1	$189	328	0	+328	Down	+$139	01-31 21:56
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-07 16:00 UTC	1	$189	348	0	+348	Up	-$189	02-07 15:57
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-07 22:15 UTC	1	$189	408	0	+408	Down	-$189	02-07 22:16
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 20:00 UTC	1	$189	344	0	+344	Down	+$155	02-03 19:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-12 16:25 UTC	1	$189	325	0	+325	Down	-$189	02-12 16:25
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-07 12:30 UTC	1	$188	400	0	+400	Down	-$188	02-07 12:27
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-15 13:50 UTC	12	$163	370	0	+370	Down	-$163	02-15 13:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-12 10:15 UTC	1	$160	315	0	+315	Down	-$160	02-12 10:15
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 15:15 UTC	2	$146	238	0	+238	Up	+$92	01-28 15:21
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-09 07:15 UTC	1	$145	284	0	+284	Down	+$139	02-09 07:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-14 16:50 UTC	35	$140	260	0	+260	Up	-$140	02-14 16:51
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 14:30 UTC	1	$140	255	0	+255	Down	+$115	02-10 14:29
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-07 14:30 UTC	1	$136	236	0	+236	Down	+$100	02-07 14:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-12 15:40 UTC	9	$135	270	0	+270	Up	+$135	02-12 15:40
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 16:15 UTC	1	$135	237	0	+237	Down	+$102	02-10 16:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 19:15 UTC	1	$135	241	0	+241	Down	+$106	02-11 19:12
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-14 14:40 UTC	14	$135	250	0	+250	Up	-$135	02-14 14:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-15 11:50 UTC	4	$127	240	0	+240	Down	+$113	02-15 11:51
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 11:00 UTC	2	$120	256	0	+256	Down	-$120	01-28 11:02
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-12 15:10 UTC	1	$116	270	0	+270	Up	+$154	02-12 15:10
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-04 11:00 UTC	1	$104	188	0	+188	Down	+$84	02-04 11:00
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 09:00 UTC	1	$100	172	0	+172	Down	-$100	01-28 08:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-21 06:44:39	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xb71d85…
10-21 06:43:05	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x721953…
10-03 22:02:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 22:00 UTC	Up	SELL	2	87¢	$1	0x38ac02…
10-03 22:00:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 22:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x75edfe…
09-22 20:14:55	BNB Up or Down - September 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xc6a8f8…
09-22 20:09:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	SELL	2	77¢	$2	0x1a2b2b…
09-22 20:04:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xc75a4e…
09-22 19:59:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x2a80c1…
09-22 19:54:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x69f8c7…
09-20 20:45:44	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	143	98¢	$140	0xad3109…
09-19 11:58:00	Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x8ccb63…
09-19 11:57:47	Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0x299988…
09-19 11:57:42	Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x337764…
09-19 11:57:32	Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xeed78f…
09-19 11:55:15	Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x032ec2…
09-19 11:55:11	Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x6aac97…
09-18 07:47:55	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	143	77¢	$110	0xb7cd19…
09-14 23:44:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 23:40 UTC	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xfedd57…
09-14 23:42:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 23:40 UTC	Up	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x96b858…
09-13 18:24:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x4de894…
09-13 18:21:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	SELL	1	57¢	$1	0x2ce0a6…
08-15 20:33:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-15 20:30 UTC	Down	SELL	1	57¢	$1	0x57aad7…
06-03 15:53:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x8de00f…
06-03 14:44:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x875f81…
06-01 12:00:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	SELL	2	77¢	$1	0xff46c1…
06-01 12:00:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x9f8caa…
06-01 11:50:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	SELL	2	71¢	$1	0x3aa6ed…
06-01 11:49:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x2c1292…
05-29 13:43:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	88¢	$3	0xda3710…
05-29 12:11:33	XRP Up or Down - May 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x27e1c7…
05-29 11:46:31	Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0x62498d…
05-29 11:19:59	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x45253a…
05-29 11:17:39	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	4	84¢	$3	0xda1d64…
05-29 11:14:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	SELL	4	99¢	$3	0x2bd1f3…
05-29 11:14:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	4	85¢	$3	0xab1591…
05-29 09:52:53	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-05-29 09:50 UTC	Up	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xa1b7b6…
05-29 09:52:53	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-05-29 09:50 UTC	Up	SELL	5	90¢	$4	0x349c3b…
05-29 09:50:51	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-05-29 09:50 UTC	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0xb17bfe…
05-29 09:40:31	Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xb6501f…
05-29 09:34:19	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x612cac…
05-29 09:33:19	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	4	80¢	$3	0x9148ee…
05-29 09:20:33	HYPE Up/Down 5m · 2026-05-29 09:20 UTC	Down	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x9915bd…
05-29 09:14:58	XRP Up or Down - May 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x93104b…
05-29 09:11:44	XRP Up or Down - May 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	4	79¢	$3	0x77adb5…
05-29 09:03:53	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-05-29 09:00 UTC	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xbbbcca…
05-29 09:02:22	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-05-29 09:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xb4dcb8…
05-28 22:48:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x730e4f…
05-28 22:46:59	Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	SELL	7	90¢	$6	0x2f5652…
05-28 22:46:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	SELL	8	90¢	$7	0x69ad9a…
05-28 22:46:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	SELL	13	90¢	$12	0xeeddb5…
05-28 22:45:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0xe3c1fa…
05-28 22:44:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	28	57¢	$16	0x28c391…
05-28 22:40:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0xa9e8a3…
05-28 22:39:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	13	54¢	$7	0xcc5b4c…
05-28 22:35:37	Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x7f6c33…
05-28 22:24:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	SELL	6	90¢	$6	0x637c5f…
05-28 22:20:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x89cf1e…
05-28 21:08:15	XRP Up or Down - May 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	SELL	13	90¢	$12	0x3945ea…
05-28 21:05:01	XRP Up or Down - May 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	13	52¢	$7	0x97ec79…
05-28 21:01:10	XRP Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x569e61…
05-28 20:40:12	XRP Up or Down - May 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	32	50¢	$16	0xfd5de9…
05-28 20:34:59	XRP Up or Down - May 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	14	51¢	$7	0xef4090…
05-28 20:31:15	XRP Up or Down - May 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x834894…
05-28 20:03:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	SELL	2	90¢	$1	0xdfbf5a…
05-28 20:03:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	SELL	8	90¢	$7	0x89021d…
05-28 20:01:00	Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	9	33¢	$3	0x767c90…
05-28 19:47:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	SELL	4	91¢	$3	0x7ea56f…
05-28 19:46:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0xad50d8…
05-28 19:45:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	SELL	9	90¢	$8	0x26e8b8…
05-28 19:45:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	9	80¢	$7	0xdc211f…
05-28 19:42:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x9d872d…
05-28 19:41:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0xa2c08d…
05-28 19:15:07	Solana Up or Down - May 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	34	47¢	$16	0x102a8e…
05-28 19:15:00	Solana Up or Down - May 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	SELL	4	90¢	$4	0xfa6970…
05-28 19:10:18	Solana Up or Down - May 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	12	60¢	$7	0xbe1de4…
05-28 19:06:08	Solana Up or Down - May 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	4	69¢	$3	0xaffb79…
05-28 19:04:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	31	51¢	$16	0x2bef7e…
05-28 18:59:31	Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	15	48¢	$7	0xfb7fc1…
05-28 18:56:27	Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x4ebfe1…
05-28 15:37:18	Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	SELL	6	90¢	$5	0x426cc8…
05-28 15:36:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	SELL	6	90¢	$5	0x7a8e67…
05-28 15:34:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x20bb98…
05-28 15:33:57	Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x7c06cd…
05-28 15:32:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x4afdcc…
05-28 15:30:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x267fd5…
05-28 15:23:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	SELL	9	90¢	$8	0x73f8fc…
05-28 15:20:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	9	35¢	$3	0x3062e9…
05-28 14:14:37	Solana Up or Down - May 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	31	51¢	$16	0x7f8784…
05-28 14:11:03	Solana Up or Down - May 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xe9d162…
05-28 14:11:03	Solana Up or Down - May 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	SELL	5	90¢	$4	0xc9c4b9…
05-28 14:11:03	Solana Up or Down - May 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	SELL	3	90¢	$2	0xa09967…
05-28 14:11:02	Solana Up or Down - May 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0x7f7e1b…
05-28 14:10:11	Solana Up or Down - May 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	11	65¢	$7	0x6c49f4…
05-28 14:08:54	Solana Up or Down - May 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	4	84¢	$3	0x5b32ce…
05-28 12:51:59	Solana Up or Down - May 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	SELL	6	90¢	$5	0xfc24f6…
05-28 12:51:56	Solana Up or Down - May 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x40391d…
05-28 12:51:56	Solana Up or Down - May 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	SELL	5	90¢	$4	0x20262c…
05-28 12:51:50	Solana Up or Down - May 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	SELL	0	90¢	$0	0xd57786…
05-28 12:51:50	Solana Up or Down - May 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	SELL	17	90¢	$15	0x2b12c9…
05-28 12:51:50	Solana Up or Down - May 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0x17a678…