Dual-Recession — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

77.6%

Resolved

360

Trades

801

lifetime

Volume

$10.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-24

last 10-28 03:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 62 days

Categories

Other

72% 79% +$1

Crypto

22% 88% +$1

Politics

4% 63% +$0

Sports

1% 33% $0

Tech

1% 50% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No		+4	$4	100¢	$4	$0	09-03 12:24
Will Leeds United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	No		+3	$3	100¢	$3	+$0	10-27 09:28

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 68k on july 14 2026	5	$116	58	58	+0	No	+$0	07-13 16:17
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C on May 27?	3	$72	46	26	+20	No	+$0	05-27 09:33
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 17?	3	$71	36	36	+0	No	+$0	05-17 19:35
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on July 4?	8	$62	31	31	+0	No	+$0	07-04 01:58
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 3?	3	$60	30	30	+0	No	$0	07-03 04:53
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 4?	4	$59	30	30	+0	No	+$0	06-03 13:46
Will Ant Middleton summit Everest in between 3 and 4 days?	2	$59	29	29	+0	No	+$0	06-01 01:02
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 27?	2	$59	29	29	+0	No	+$0	06-26 19:50
will bitcoin dip to 54k june 22 28 2026	2	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	06-29 00:28
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C or below on June 28?	3	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	06-28 09:32
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C or below on June 25?	2	$57	28	28	+0	No	+$0	06-25 07:43
xrp above 1pt4 on july 22 2026	2	$57	28	28	+0	No	$0	07-22 02:11
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 26?	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	05-26 05:10
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 25°C or below on July 18?	4	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	07-17 08:34
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 17?	3	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	07-17 07:58
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 44°C or higher on July 15?	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	07-15 00:12
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 19 be between 90 and 95?	6	$55	35	20	+15	No	+$0	05-22 15:01
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on July 10?	2	$54	27	27	+0	No	+$0	07-09 16:25
ethereum above 2000 on july 12 2026	2	$54	27	27	+0	No	+$0	07-12 01:25
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 41°C or higher on July 4?	2	$54	27	27	+0	No	$0	07-03 09:56
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 11?	5	$53	27	27	+0	No	+$0	07-10 22:30
ethereum above 2100 on july 17 2026	2	$53	27	27	+0	No	+$0	07-16 22:26
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on July 9?	2	$53	27	27	+0	No	+$0	07-09 04:25
Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on July 11, 2026?	2	$53	27	27	+0	No	+$0	07-11 16:02
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 21?	2	$53	27	27	+0	No	$0	07-21 05:24
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on July 1?	2	$53	27	27	+0	No	+$0	07-01 08:20
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1?	2	$53	27	27	+0	No	+$0	06-28 07:59
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 3?	3	$53	26	26	+0	No	+$0	06-03 02:16
bitcoin above 66k on june 28 2026	2	$53	26	26	+0	No	+$0	06-27 16:36
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on July 3?	2	$52	26	26	+0	No	$0	07-02 10:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 03:34:48	Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xa4e5b1…
10-28 03:33:55	Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$7	0x0bd352…
10-27 09:28:51	Will Leeds United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x437772…
10-07 06:08:30	Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$7	0x2196a3…
10-03 21:32:37	Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x396754…
10-03 21:31:46	Will Toronto FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x9a8bea…
09-20 17:37:36	Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x00bd42…
09-03 12:24:13	Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x8f96e2…
08-29 12:23:52	Will Toronto FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x48098a…
08-28 17:17:54	Will Memphis Grizzlies win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x1f8cb9…
08-25 10:10:10	Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xe6131c…
08-07 19:30:30	Will Memphis Grizzlies win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x4b0cac…
07-23 16:17:13	bitcoin above 70k on july 24 2026	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xf7b3a1…
07-23 14:16:16	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on July 24?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x5e7404…
07-23 08:24:15	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on July 23?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x3a5839…
07-23 07:59:00	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on July 24?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x3dd7c4…
07-23 06:41:40	bitcoin above 70k on july 24 2026	No	BUY	13	100¢	$12	0xaa0f91…
07-23 02:11:57	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on July 23?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x625d11…
07-23 02:07:48	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on July 23?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xfb54af…
07-23 01:36:16	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on July 23?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xad0165…
07-23 01:26:31	bitcoin above 70k on july 23 2026	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x3f4e2a…
07-22 21:05:37	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on July 23?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x1cd07f…
07-22 17:58:27	bitcoin above 70k on july 23 2026	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x334cb4…
07-22 17:16:27	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on July 22?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x0912df…
07-22 17:14:55	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on July 23?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x46a025…
07-22 11:08:46	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on July 22?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xea8b29…
07-22 09:16:07	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on July 23?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xa8db79…
07-22 05:33:30	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on July 22?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x759b58…
07-22 05:19:42	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on July 22?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xdc7bf8…
07-22 05:16:19	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on July 22?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x1c3129…
07-22 04:11:55	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on July 22?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x0f8180…
07-22 02:11:34	xrp above 1pt4 on july 22 2026	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0x05c41d…
07-22 01:49:03	xrp above 1pt4 on july 22 2026	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xbe473a…
07-21 21:43:01	ethereum above 2100 on july 22 2026	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0xf0d72d…
07-21 19:06:30	ethereum above 2100 on july 22 2026	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xcc342d…
07-21 16:27:19	ethereum above 1700 on july 22 2026	Yes	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xa0b86d…
07-21 16:25:58	ethereum above 1700 on july 22 2026	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x094515…
07-21 15:29:12	Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on July 21?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0xf9a30f…
07-21 13:34:06	Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on July 21?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xc8ec10…
07-21 11:49:16	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 21?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x7bc04c…
07-21 08:56:45	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 21?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xe12f75…
07-21 08:07:28	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 22?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$14	0x2435ec…
07-21 06:07:51	ethereum above 1700 on july 22 2026	Yes	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x961eb6…
07-21 05:24:43	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 21?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0xe3922f…
07-21 03:22:00	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 21?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xd068d8…
07-21 03:09:39	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 21?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x17d8c6…
07-21 01:25:43	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 22?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$14	0x9974bd…
07-20 22:40:40	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 21?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x865ca2…
07-20 22:01:27	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on July 21?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xe5a1c0…
07-20 13:45:43	ethereum above 1700 on july 20 2026	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xc14c05…
07-20 13:04:54	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on July 20?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x6df09c…
07-20 12:54:18	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on July 21?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xfc6474…
07-20 12:24:34	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on July 21?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6303b5…
07-20 09:40:55	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on July 21?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x1cb5dc…
07-20 06:25:54	will the odyssey score at least 80 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	Yes	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xaf2c45…
07-20 06:25:49	will the odyssey score at least 80 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xa2d445…
07-20 06:25:46	will the odyssey score at least 80 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x0ef4a4…
07-20 05:42:15	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on July 20?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x4726f1…
07-20 05:02:30	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 24°C or below on July 20?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x0d5af0…
07-20 04:55:15	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on July 20?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$14	0xfce6e7…
07-20 03:37:52	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 24°C or below on July 20?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x1f6f85…
07-20 03:28:18	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 20?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xc10ad1…
07-20 01:44:31	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 20?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xb9b375…
07-20 01:31:19	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xa20429…
07-20 00:57:28	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on July 20?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$14	0xa4712f…
07-19 23:03:37	will the odyssey score at least 80 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x3ae7d6…
07-19 22:56:52	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 24°C or below on July 20?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x15abd0…
07-19 20:25:39	will the odyssey score at least 80 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x3f49d3…
07-19 16:32:51	bitcoin above 60k on july 20 2026	Yes	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0xfe4a72…
07-19 16:00:54	Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on July 20?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x700720…
07-19 15:59:45	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x3430e6…
07-19 15:09:25	Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on July 20?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x6475c4…
07-19 13:34:58	Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on July 20?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$16	0xb83eb4…
07-19 13:33:51	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 82°F or higher on July 20?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xcba5f1…
07-19 13:19:46	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 82°F or higher on July 20?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x9008d1…
07-19 12:11:30	Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on July 20?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x56a7f9…
07-19 11:27:10	bitcoin above 60k on july 20 2026	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x09cded…
07-19 10:09:28	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 19?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xdf3a62…
07-19 09:05:42	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 19?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf8fa32…
07-19 06:50:52	Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x6a0581…
07-19 06:48:52	Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xe0bcbe…
07-19 06:19:13	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 82°F or higher on July 20?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xeca232…
07-19 03:28:03	Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x42b050…
07-19 02:33:48	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 19?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xa61aa3…
07-19 01:25:46	will the next uk prime minister be appointed by july 21 20260714155939803	Yes	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x965391…
07-18 23:55:55	will the next uk prime minister be appointed by july 21 20260714155939803	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xf16353…
07-18 23:03:34	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 19?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x58dada…
07-18 03:09:36	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x35ebe7…
07-17 23:28:24	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C or higher on July 18?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x5ed78c…
07-17 21:14:03	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C or higher on July 18?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x5875d4…
07-17 20:59:58	will the jensen jacket jensen huangs tom ford leather jacket sell for at least 90k at auction 20260713233758306	Yes	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xa2dbb7…
07-17 19:40:13	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 98-99°F on July 17?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x84a539…
07-17 08:50:28	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x45bc0d…
07-17 08:34:45	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 25°C or below on July 18?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x1ed47a…
07-17 07:58:06	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 17?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x1b7ab8…
07-17 07:53:52	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on July 17?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0xd9856e…
07-17 07:45:25	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 17?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0xde3e7a…
07-17 06:30:12	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on July 17?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xb2d2b4…
07-17 05:46:22	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 25°C or below on July 18?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xd7e049…
07-17 04:57:54	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 25°C or below on July 18?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xcec848…