Sparkling-Commonsense — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$34.7K

Unrealized P&L

-$1.20K

Hit rate

93.6%

Resolved

139

Trades

1,710

lifetime

Volume

$3.90M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$2.28K

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-30 19:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 69 days

Categories

Other

56% 90% +$38,255

Politics

40% 84% -$4,341

Crypto

2% 42% +$747

Sports

2% 100% +$71

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 20 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes		+0	$1,200	7¢	$0	-$1,200	08-01 07:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	58	$209.6K	143,979	74,000	+69,979	Yes	+$2,431	01-28 13:27
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	5	$205.4K	107,780	107,780	+0	No	-$7,739	04-14 00:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	89	$199.7K	139,528	107,468	+32,060	No	+$2,507	07-29 20:16
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	5	$156.9K	99,000	60,000	+39,000	Yes	+$649	03-16 23:58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	24	$151.8K	81,000	81,000	+0	No	+$8,042	05-30 14:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	50	$146.9K	92,728	72,982	+19,745	No	+$7,068	07-01 05:27
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	3	$139.7K	70,000	70,000	+0	Yes	+$140	04-08 03:14
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	2	$134.2K	68,000	68,000	+0	No	+$846	05-12 02:22
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	26	$131.0K	70,000	70,000	+0	No	+$5,000	06-05 22:47
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	30	$130.3K	86,000	86,000	+0	No	+$786	08-12 04:05
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	65	$117.8K	59,293	59,973	-680	Yes	+$584	02-09 02:22
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	25	$92.9K	50,000	50,000	+0	No	+$3,720	08-29 13:24
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	36	$92.2K	48,000	51,000	-3,000	No	+$393	01-20 17:06
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	57	$86.6K	90,000	0	+90,000	Yes	+$3,360	06-16 06:51
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	8	$71.5K	71,739	0	+71,739	Yes	+$287	04-08 04:25
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	18	$70.6K	71,000	0	+71,000	No	+$355	04-01 15:13
Will Trump dance today?	6	$69.9K	35,000	35,000	+0	Yes	+$70	04-28 20:18
israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	2	$69.8K	70,000	0	+70,000	Yes	+$210	06-06 05:17
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	2	$69.4K	69,500	0	+69,500	Yes	+$70	07-09 00:04
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	1	$68.7K	70,465	0	+70,465	Yes	+$1,762	03-22 02:13
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	2	$68.7K	69,363	0	+69,363	No	+$702	03-31 17:48
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	20	$68.5K	40,000	30,000	+10,000	No	+$350	04-14 05:19
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	2	$64.9K	65,341	0	+65,341	No	+$461	04-26 15:35
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	53	$64.1K	65,000	0	+65,000	Yes	+$870	02-02 22:56
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?	12	$59.8K	60,374	0	+60,374	Yes	+$575	03-31 04:58
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	33	$59.8K	30,000	30,000	+0	Yes	+$0	01-30 12:06
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	21	$55.0K	55,215	0	+55,215	No	+$199	01-03 17:14
will trump talk to emmanuel macron in january	21	$53.1K	25,699	27,871	-2,172	Yes	+$375	01-30 20:26
will israel strike lebanon on january 16 2026	46	$47.3K	43,390	10,000	+33,390	No	+$755	01-21 01:00
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	8	$46.4K	47,082	0	+47,082	Yes	+$699	05-02 23:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-30 19:56:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	3,842	49¢	$1,883	0x48f0c5…
08-30 19:55:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	4,000	49¢	$1,960	0x352e42…
08-30 19:43:57	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	61	49¢	$30	0x237102…
08-30 19:41:00	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	4	49¢	$2	0xa5015b…
08-30 19:27:19	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	6	49¢	$3	0xf16612…
08-30 19:18:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	SELL	10,000	98¢	$9,750	0x2d633c…
08-30 19:05:04	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0xf87b96…
08-30 18:59:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	300	49¢	$147	0x624271…
08-30 18:48:45	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	9	49¢	$4	0x739a56…
08-30 18:44:10	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,767	49¢	$866	0xe053a7…
08-30 18:28:25	US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	BUY	2,000	99¢	$1,978	0x5cb545…
08-29 13:24:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	SELL	35,514	100¢	$35,443	0x68cb0d…
08-29 13:24:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xf8a90c…
08-29 13:24:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0xef827c…
08-29 13:24:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xe71464…
08-29 13:24:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x9c594a…
08-29 13:24:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x7bba2d…
08-29 13:24:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x79fb26…
08-29 13:24:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x2f952e…
08-29 13:24:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	SELL	4,419	100¢	$4,410	0x637201…
08-29 05:57:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	SELL	1,899	96¢	$1,823	0xd3f96e…
08-29 05:30:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	SELL	5,200	96¢	$4,992	0x9638a7…
08-29 05:18:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	SELL	205	96¢	$197	0x15a671…
08-29 04:41:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	SELL	0	96¢	$0	0x738038…
08-29 04:38:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x998e36…
08-29 04:37:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	SELL	31	96¢	$30	0x57937e…
08-29 04:37:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0xcb376e…
08-29 04:37:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0xc04811…
08-29 04:36:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	SELL	121	96¢	$116	0x87d80b…
08-29 04:36:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	SELL	73	96¢	$70	0x5c9678…
08-29 04:36:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	SELL	2,370	96¢	$2,275	0xf9872e…
08-28 15:27:04	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	140	48¢	$67	0x04b294…
08-28 15:26:16	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	23	48¢	$11	0x21e909…
08-28 15:25:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,188	48¢	$570	0xee5221…
08-28 15:25:37	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,336	48¢	$641	0x9ebab5…
08-28 15:25:34	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	48¢	$48	0x167c3a…
08-28 15:24:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,400	48¢	$672	0x3c1b6c…
08-28 15:24:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,369	48¢	$1,137	0xdd96b8…
08-28 15:23:39	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8	48¢	$4	0x612867…
08-28 15:23:07	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	70	48¢	$33	0x1b29f4…
08-28 15:21:45	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	212	48¢	$102	0x7015e1…
08-28 15:20:31	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3,155	48¢	$1,514	0xd75e32…
08-25 19:46:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	BUY	10,000	92¢	$9,200	0x26f270…
08-25 11:11:25	US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	BUY	3,000	94¢	$2,820	0xced5c5…
08-25 11:09:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August?	No	BUY	25,300	99¢	$25,097	0xabe4ac…
08-15 13:35:46	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	8,238	86¢	$7,085	0xee0b8f…
08-15 12:59:36	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	0	86¢	$0	0xf7549f…
08-15 12:59:28	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x7eb8f4…
08-15 12:59:28	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	12	86¢	$11	0x0dbad8…
08-15 12:59:27	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xb18218…
08-15 12:59:27	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	1,000	86¢	$860	0x05771e…
08-15 09:46:03	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x974b63…
08-15 09:45:37	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	95	86¢	$82	0x28facc…
08-15 09:30:19	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	623	86¢	$536	0x112a7e…
08-12 04:05:04	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	SELL	1,480	100¢	$1,475	0xf71199…
08-12 03:35:18	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xf7b5c8…
08-12 03:23:10	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	SELL	2,500	100¢	$2,492	0xb7292a…
08-12 03:02:54	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x815a64…
08-12 02:15:46	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	SELL	1,171	100¢	$1,167	0x676758…
08-12 02:14:21	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	SELL	1,772	100¢	$1,766	0x347635…
08-12 02:13:51	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	SELL	1,094	100¢	$1,091	0xec00d8…
08-12 02:13:51	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	SELL	499	100¢	$498	0xb15127…
08-12 02:13:48	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0xfca417…
08-12 02:13:48	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0xfbc99b…
08-12 02:13:48	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	SELL	908	100¢	$905	0xcf0870…
08-12 02:13:48	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	SELL	19,881	100¢	$19,821	0x676a24…
08-12 02:02:46	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	SELL	41	100¢	$41	0x9bab38…
08-12 02:02:31	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x1544fd…
08-12 02:02:13	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x19f0c5…
08-12 02:01:37	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	10,000	96¢	$9,600	0x7d7b63…
08-12 01:55:31	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	SELL	20,582	100¢	$20,521	0x256dd7…
08-05 11:34:48	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	9,114	84¢	$7,656	0xbb1025…
08-05 11:23:26	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	70	84¢	$59	0x6b1682…
08-05 11:22:41	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	400	84¢	$336	0x37bc56…
08-05 11:20:23	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	80	84¢	$67	0x0d5611…
08-05 11:15:21	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	200	84¢	$168	0x077165…
08-05 10:57:12	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	76	84¢	$64	0xbe8b45…
08-05 10:56:38	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	50	84¢	$42	0x5719fe…
08-05 10:53:24	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	10	84¢	$8	0x127d0f…
08-02 02:15:03	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	10,000	97¢	$9,700	0x2b719b…
08-01 22:56:48	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	2,598	98¢	$2,559	0x9c8d71…
08-01 21:44:47	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	9,710	98¢	$9,565	0x54e908…
08-01 21:29:09	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	27,692	98¢	$27,277	0x40c848…
08-01 17:14:42	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	Yes	SELL	5,257	1¢	$37	0x6faa28…
08-01 17:01:23	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	Yes	SELL	143	1¢	$1	0xa25a62…
08-01 16:56:14	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	Yes	SELL	143	1¢	$1	0x877bfa…
08-01 16:49:59	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	Yes	SELL	200	1¢	$1	0xe1eb53…
08-01 16:49:47	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	Yes	SELL	14,257	1¢	$100	0xba2cfa…
08-01 07:37:24	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	1,473	67¢	$987	0x8506f1…
07-31 19:49:21	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	1	67¢	$1	0x303160…
07-31 19:49:09	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	3	67¢	$2	0x8bf62f…
07-31 19:49:08	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	2	67¢	$1	0x1e643a…
07-31 19:49:03	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	8	67¢	$6	0x07e15c…
07-31 19:49:02	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	8	67¢	$6	0x994cf0…
07-31 19:49:02	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	8	67¢	$5	0x93dc01…
07-31 19:49:00	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	2	67¢	$1	0x1a4ce8…
07-31 19:48:59	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	2	67¢	$1	0x031ada…
07-31 19:48:57	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	5	67¢	$3	0xe564b0…
07-31 19:48:57	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	4	67¢	$3	0xc44817…
07-31 19:48:57	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	4	67¢	$3	0xa3e9b9…