Sparkling-Commonsense — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$729

Unrealized P&L

+$6.95K

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,431

lifetime

Volume

$3.29M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$2.30K

Open exposure

$17.8K

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-26 09:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

51% 100% +$729

Politics

47% — —

Crypto

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

34 active days in 12wk • peak 43 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No		+17,922	$10,873	99¢	$17.8K	+$6,951	06-26 09:39

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	58	$209.6K	143,979	74,000	+69,979	open	—	01-28 13:27
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	5	$205.4K	107,780	107,780	+0	open	—	04-14 00:39
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	5	$156.9K	99,000	60,000	+39,000	open	—	03-16 23:58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	24	$151.8K	81,000	81,000	+0	open	—	05-30 14:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	48	$145.1K	90,904	72,982	+17,922	open	—	06-26 09:39
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	3	$139.7K	70,000	70,000	+0	open	—	04-08 03:14
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	2	$134.2K	68,000	68,000	+0	open	—	05-12 02:22
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	23	$130.1K	68,990	70,000	-1,009	open	—	06-05 22:47
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	65	$117.8K	59,293	59,973	-680	open	—	02-09 02:22
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	36	$92.2K	48,000	51,000	-3,000	open	—	01-20 17:06
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	13	$86.1K	89,425	0	+89,425	open	—	06-16 06:51
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	8	$71.5K	71,739	0	+71,739	open	—	04-08 04:25
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	18	$70.6K	71,000	0	+71,000	open	—	04-01 15:13
Will Trump dance today?	6	$69.9K	35,000	35,000	+0	open	—	04-28 20:18
israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	2	$69.8K	70,000	0	+70,000	open	—	06-06 05:17
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	1	$68.7K	70,465	0	+70,465	open	—	03-22 02:13
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	2	$68.7K	69,363	0	+69,363	open	—	03-31 17:48
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	20	$68.5K	40,000	30,000	+10,000	open	—	04-14 05:19
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	2	$64.9K	65,341	0	+65,341	open	—	04-26 15:35
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	53	$64.1K	65,000	0	+65,000	open	—	02-02 22:56
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?	12	$59.8K	60,374	0	+60,374	open	—	03-31 04:58
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	33	$59.8K	30,000	30,000	+0	open	—	01-30 12:06
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	21	$55.0K	55,215	0	+55,215	open	—	01-03 17:14
will trump talk to emmanuel macron in january	21	$53.1K	25,699	27,871	-2,172	open	—	01-30 20:26
will israel strike lebanon on january 16 2026	46	$47.3K	43,390	10,000	+33,390	open	—	01-21 01:00
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	8	$46.4K	47,082	0	+47,082	Yes	+$699	05-02 23:33
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	16	$38.6K	40,000	30,000	+10,000	open	—	02-21 03:24
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	1	$35.3K	35,753	0	+35,753	open	—	04-28 20:19
will crude oil cl hit high 95 by end of march 851	5	$34.8K	35,000	0	+35,000	open	—	03-12 23:30
will bitcoin dip to 80k in february 2026 869 956	3	$33.0K	33,000	0	+33,000	open	—	02-01 06:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-26 09:39:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	3,030	89¢	$2,687	0xffe067…
06-26 09:29:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	1,075	87¢	$938	0x3ecb9b…
06-26 08:46:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	508	86¢	$437	0xb811ff…
06-26 08:44:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	1,270	86¢	$1,094	0xbf92a9…
06-26 08:39:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	272	86¢	$234	0xb6b012…
06-26 08:38:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	1,296	86¢	$1,112	0x93a224…
06-26 08:36:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	2,437	86¢	$2,107	0xa597e6…
06-26 08:34:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	5,221	86¢	$4,507	0x624ec0…
06-26 04:31:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	10,067	93¢	$9,362	0x8bcb76…
06-26 04:23:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	27,808	92¢	$25,646	0x1a123a…
06-20 14:22:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	497	95¢	$473	0x56563d…
06-20 14:21:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	147	95¢	$140	0x15f001…
06-20 14:20:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	1,486	95¢	$1,412	0xe052cc…
06-20 14:20:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	17,870	95¢	$16,976	0xd35ce2…
06-16 06:51:58	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	30,000	96¢	$28,650	0x88b855…
06-16 06:51:39	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	1,200	97¢	$1,162	0x280de8…
06-16 06:23:19	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	125	97¢	$121	0xe8748d…
06-16 06:22:55	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	17,147	97¢	$16,599	0xa19d80…
06-16 05:39:51	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	2,446	97¢	$2,367	0x37c43a…
06-16 01:05:34	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	0	97¢	$0	0xc2b66e…
06-16 01:03:21	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	281	97¢	$272	0x2f4329…
06-16 01:02:37	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x9df2ce…
06-16 01:02:31	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	2,969	97¢	$2,874	0xb95533…
06-16 01:02:31	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	562	97¢	$544	0x130f32…
06-16 01:02:13	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x48efe8…
06-16 01:01:28	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	4,684	97¢	$4,534	0x46fc71…
06-11 17:33:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	6,000	83¢	$4,980	0x26713a…
06-11 17:28:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	16,062	91¢	$14,616	0xbc7736…
06-11 17:27:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	3,938	91¢	$3,584	0x82c451…
06-09 16:39:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	145	88¢	$128	0xfe29c7…
06-09 16:39:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1,000	88¢	$880	0x8abe5e…
06-09 16:36:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0x897432…
06-09 16:33:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	9	88¢	$8	0xbd397a…
06-09 16:33:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	2,500	88¢	$2,200	0xdc4558…
06-09 16:33:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	9	88¢	$8	0x9a67ff…
06-09 16:33:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	17	88¢	$15	0x10e63f…
06-09 16:33:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	30	88¢	$26	0xa7605f…
06-09 16:33:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0xf0318b…
06-09 16:33:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	8,363	88¢	$7,359	0xc90843…
06-09 16:33:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	17	88¢	$15	0x5049bf…
06-09 16:33:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	12	88¢	$10	0x19468c…
06-09 16:05:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	517	88¢	$455	0xaf7a7b…
06-09 15:36:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	5	88¢	$5	0x40e175…
06-09 15:28:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	320	88¢	$282	0xd05d28…
06-09 15:24:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1,167	88¢	$1,027	0x71a378…
06-09 15:21:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	128	88¢	$113	0xbccdce…
06-09 15:21:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	41	88¢	$36	0x7b59b0…
06-09 15:04:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0x880211…
06-09 14:57:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	124	88¢	$109	0x8a2f61…
06-09 14:27:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0xf0c14c…
06-09 14:27:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	266	88¢	$234	0x4c51c4…
06-09 14:25:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x512fd7…
06-09 14:21:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0xf6e386…
06-09 14:19:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	500	88¢	$440	0x068d90…
06-09 14:09:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0x2b3905…
06-09 14:09:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	8,333	88¢	$7,333	0x596499…
06-09 14:09:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	22	88¢	$19	0x9d5486…
06-09 14:07:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1,189	88¢	$1,046	0x6a06a9…
06-08 11:32:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	30,000	89¢	$26,700	0xe1e353…
06-06 05:17:42	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	20,000	100¢	$19,940	0xea6eb7…
06-05 22:47:24	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	13,631	98¢	$13,358	0x389fd9…
06-05 22:01:51	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	6,369	98¢	$6,242	0xfceebb…
06-04 19:57:21	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	30,000	97¢	$29,100	0x0b22c9…
06-03 13:23:02	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	400	100¢	$398	0x310f75…
06-01 21:28:51	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	25,000	100¢	$24,875	0x5c14e8…
06-01 16:28:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	SELL	19,272	97¢	$18,597	0x85c0d0…
06-01 16:20:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	SELL	100	96¢	$96	0xc2022b…
06-01 16:18:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	SELL	628	96¢	$606	0x6b79e9…
06-01 16:09:13	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	42¢	$850	0x2bd1ae…
05-30 14:32:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	155	100¢	$154	0xc18a10…
05-30 14:30:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	807	100¢	$805	0x8ae203…
05-30 14:29:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	754	100¢	$752	0x498517…
05-30 14:29:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	1,036	100¢	$1,033	0x7475ff…
05-30 14:29:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xf7c5ba…
05-30 14:28:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	264	100¢	$263	0x7c899c…
05-30 14:26:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	706	100¢	$704	0xe3a040…
05-30 14:25:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	686	100¢	$684	0x616d09…
05-30 14:24:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	770	100¢	$768	0xf680ec…
05-30 14:23:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	497	100¢	$495	0x010c8a…
05-30 14:22:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	306	100¢	$305	0xd2063f…
05-29 15:08:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	5,240	98¢	$5,135	0x3aac83…
05-29 15:02:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	760	98¢	$745	0x5ff2b2…
05-29 14:55:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	20,000	89¢	$17,800	0xf2a727…
05-29 02:01:37	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	5,809	100¢	$5,803	0xcc3b16…
05-28 23:37:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	19,512	91¢	$17,756	0xac399b…
05-28 22:38:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	8	91¢	$8	0x67f8d2…
05-28 22:15:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	44	91¢	$40	0x133fe2…
05-28 22:10:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	120	91¢	$109	0xc6ff10…
05-28 21:37:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	84	91¢	$77	0xa41978…
05-28 21:37:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	131	91¢	$119	0xa6f3fd…
05-28 21:32:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0xea1888…
05-28 21:31:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xdc1a0e…
05-28 21:31:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	56	91¢	$51	0x61047c…
05-28 21:31:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x416bab…
05-28 20:35:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	486	90¢	$437	0x1d6560…
05-28 20:27:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x410d5a…
05-28 20:24:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xa04316…
05-28 20:02:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	8,444	90¢	$7,599	0xc2abb7…
05-28 14:16:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	10,000	62¢	$6,200	0x757118…
05-28 14:14:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	16,459	90¢	$14,813	0x1578a5…