Sparkling-Commonsense — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$729

Unrealized P&L

+$2.07K

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,503

lifetime

Volume

$3.53M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$2.35K

Open exposure

$72.7K

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-20 11:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

52% 100% +$729

Politics

44% — —

Crypto

2% — —

Sports

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

33 active days in 12wk • peak 29 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No		+73,420	$69,828	99¢	$72.5K	+$2,674	07-20 11:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes		+16,030	$802	1¢	$200	$-601	07-08 11:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	58	$209.6K	143,979	74,000	+69,979	open	—	01-28 13:27
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	5	$205.4K	107,780	107,780	+0	open	—	04-14 00:39
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	5	$156.9K	99,000	60,000	+39,000	open	—	03-16 23:58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	24	$151.8K	81,000	81,000	+0	open	—	05-30 14:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	50	$146.9K	92,728	72,982	+19,745	open	—	07-01 05:27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	61	$142.6K	139,528	50,078	+89,450	open	—	07-20 11:32
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	3	$139.7K	70,000	70,000	+0	open	—	04-08 03:14
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	2	$134.2K	68,000	68,000	+0	open	—	05-12 02:22
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	23	$130.1K	68,990	70,000	-1,009	open	—	06-05 22:47
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	65	$117.8K	59,293	59,973	-680	open	—	02-09 02:22
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	36	$92.2K	48,000	51,000	-3,000	open	—	01-20 17:06
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	13	$86.1K	89,425	0	+89,425	open	—	06-16 06:51
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	8	$71.5K	71,739	0	+71,739	open	—	04-08 04:25
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	18	$70.6K	71,000	0	+71,000	open	—	04-01 15:13
Will Trump dance today?	6	$69.9K	35,000	35,000	+0	open	—	04-28 20:18
israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	2	$69.8K	70,000	0	+70,000	open	—	06-06 05:17
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	2	$69.4K	69,500	0	+69,500	open	—	07-09 00:04
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	1	$68.7K	70,465	0	+70,465	open	—	03-22 02:13
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	2	$68.7K	69,363	0	+69,363	open	—	03-31 17:48
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	20	$68.5K	40,000	30,000	+10,000	open	—	04-14 05:19
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	2	$64.9K	65,341	0	+65,341	open	—	04-26 15:35
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	53	$64.1K	65,000	0	+65,000	open	—	02-02 22:56
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?	12	$59.8K	60,374	0	+60,374	open	—	03-31 04:58
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	33	$59.8K	30,000	30,000	+0	open	—	01-30 12:06
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	21	$55.0K	55,215	0	+55,215	open	—	01-03 17:14
will trump talk to emmanuel macron in january	21	$53.1K	25,699	27,871	-2,172	open	—	01-30 20:26
will israel strike lebanon on january 16 2026	46	$47.3K	43,390	10,000	+33,390	open	—	01-21 01:00
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	8	$46.4K	47,082	0	+47,082	Yes	+$699	05-02 23:33
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	16	$38.6K	40,000	30,000	+10,000	open	—	02-21 03:24
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	1	$35.3K	35,753	0	+35,753	open	—	04-28 20:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-20 11:32:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	16,885	98¢	$16,547	0x521657…
07-20 11:31:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	3,115	98¢	$3,053	0xa1d56f…
07-20 01:55:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	7,000	98¢	$6,881	0xb5e9ec…
07-20 01:51:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	14,513	98¢	$14,281	0xbc9321…
07-19 20:31:43	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	4,664	87¢	$4,058	0xce8266…
07-19 20:29:39	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	9	87¢	$8	0x8461ab…
07-19 16:34:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x73ba50…
07-19 16:34:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xc75fe3…
07-19 16:29:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$4	0x240680…
07-19 15:57:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	95	99¢	$94	0x08785c…
07-19 15:47:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	900	99¢	$891	0x0502fe…
07-19 15:45:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	482	99¢	$477	0xb53f13…
07-19 15:44:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	400	99¢	$396	0xa96e23…
07-19 14:57:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	451	99¢	$446	0x8cf76c…
07-19 14:21:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0xc66385…
07-19 13:46:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	5,005	99¢	$4,955	0xf76f60…
07-19 13:21:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x019230…
07-19 13:18:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	4,905	99¢	$4,855	0x797eba…
07-19 12:54:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	91	99¢	$90	0x86b821…
07-19 12:47:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0x8dbbd4…
07-19 12:47:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	91	99¢	$90	0x9a335e…
07-19 12:45:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	91	99¢	$90	0xf50d7c…
07-19 12:44:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	67	99¢	$66	0xef7034…
07-19 12:22:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	714	99¢	$707	0x643890…
07-19 12:18:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	106	99¢	$105	0x5e3297…
07-19 12:15:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0xfd38ba…
07-19 11:31:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x658f8f…
07-19 10:25:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x9f196e…
07-19 10:23:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x27a80c…
07-19 10:21:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	577	99¢	$571	0x298243…
07-18 03:25:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	77	87¢	$67	0xdc23c8…
07-18 01:16:28	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	250	87¢	$218	0x830c54…
07-18 01:14:45	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	15,000	87¢	$13,050	0xa864f8…
07-16 00:31:38	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	9,166	88¢	$8,066	0x06ade6…
07-16 00:25:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	10,834	88¢	$9,534	0x8a6219…
07-13 02:13:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	21,985	97¢	$21,325	0xb08cb3…
07-10 20:08:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	30,000	95¢	$28,500	0x1687e9…
07-09 00:04:38	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	40,000	100¢	$39,960	0xebb904…
07-08 23:38:29	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	29,500	100¢	$29,470	0xb367bd…
07-08 12:10:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	22,022	95¢	$20,920	0xaa638c…
07-08 12:07:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0x0e1168…
07-08 12:03:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	550	95¢	$522	0xd23ec1…
07-08 11:53:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	120	95¢	$114	0x0f3ec5…
07-08 11:50:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	319	95¢	$303	0x76f80f…
07-08 11:44:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	6,790	95¢	$6,450	0x4aabcf…
07-08 11:44:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	11,210	5¢	$561	0x4aabcf…
07-08 11:43:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	7	5¢	$0	0x06065e…
07-08 11:25:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x9df1c5…
07-08 11:11:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	800	5¢	$40	0x0c45a1…
07-08 11:09:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	320	5¢	$16	0xe53352…
07-08 11:08:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	848	5¢	$42	0x69fd2d…
07-08 11:04:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	764	5¢	$38	0xa28ce3…
07-07 22:09:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	662	5¢	$33	0x96d8a8…
07-07 22:09:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	2,000	5¢	$100	0x1bba40…
07-07 22:09:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0xe8c1c5…
07-07 22:02:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	6,000	5¢	$300	0x0a2d98…
07-07 21:52:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0xe2095f…
07-07 21:45:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x7f76e8…
07-07 21:44:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	498	5¢	$25	0x0ec5de…
07-07 21:42:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	29	5¢	$1	0x95ad81…
07-07 21:33:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	650	5¢	$32	0x84e7a8…
07-07 21:32:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	4,000	5¢	$200	0x38fef5…
07-07 21:31:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	999	5¢	$50	0x7c91ec…
07-07 21:31:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	14,861	5¢	$743	0x864be7…
07-07 17:42:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	764	92¢	$703	0xb0c581…
07-07 16:26:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	62	92¢	$57	0xd3d4d0…
07-07 16:25:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$0	0x98eab3…
07-07 16:25:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$0	0x395b14…
07-07 15:22:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	125	92¢	$115	0x0e60f7…
07-07 15:21:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	7,063	92¢	$6,498	0x33b184…
07-01 05:27:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xfdff65…
07-01 03:50:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1,804	99¢	$1,786	0xa73fbb…
06-26 09:39:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	3,030	89¢	$2,687	0xffe067…
06-26 09:29:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	1,075	87¢	$938	0x3ecb9b…
06-26 08:46:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	508	86¢	$437	0xb811ff…
06-26 08:44:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	1,270	86¢	$1,094	0xbf92a9…
06-26 08:39:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	272	86¢	$234	0xb6b012…
06-26 08:38:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	1,296	86¢	$1,112	0x93a224…
06-26 08:36:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	2,437	86¢	$2,107	0xa597e6…
06-26 08:34:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	5,221	86¢	$4,507	0x624ec0…
06-26 04:31:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	10,067	93¢	$9,362	0x8bcb76…
06-26 04:23:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	27,808	92¢	$25,646	0x1a123a…
06-20 14:22:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	497	95¢	$473	0x56563d…
06-20 14:21:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	147	95¢	$140	0x15f001…
06-20 14:20:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	1,486	95¢	$1,412	0xe052cc…
06-20 14:20:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	17,870	95¢	$16,976	0xd35ce2…
06-16 06:51:58	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	30,000	96¢	$28,650	0x88b855…
06-16 06:51:39	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	1,200	97¢	$1,162	0x280de8…
06-16 06:23:19	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	125	97¢	$121	0xe8748d…
06-16 06:22:55	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	17,147	97¢	$16,599	0xa19d80…
06-16 05:39:51	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	2,446	97¢	$2,367	0x37c43a…
06-16 01:05:34	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	0	97¢	$0	0xc2b66e…
06-16 01:03:21	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	281	97¢	$272	0x2f4329…
06-16 01:02:37	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x9df2ce…
06-16 01:02:31	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	2,969	97¢	$2,874	0xb95533…
06-16 01:02:31	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	562	97¢	$544	0x130f32…
06-16 01:02:13	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x48efe8…
06-16 01:01:28	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	4,684	97¢	$4,534	0x46fc71…
06-11 17:33:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	6,000	83¢	$4,980	0x26713a…
06-11 17:28:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	16,062	91¢	$14,616	0xbc7736…