Complex-Departure — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$766

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

58.1%

Resolved

906

Trades

1,397

lifetime

Volume

$11.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-13

last 10-18 01:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 104 days

Categories

Crypto

50% 63% -$32

Politics

42% 40% +$1,081

Other

5% 18% -$203

Sports

3% 37% -$81

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?	Yes	—	+50	$6	8¢	$4	-$2	10-17 08:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	1	$900	1,071	0	+1,071	No	+$171	03-23 18:21
us strikes iran by january 15 2026 652 612	2	$855	929	929	+0	No	+$409	01-14 21:55
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	12	$787	2,126	2,126	+0	No	-$21	01-25 06:09
us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	7	$720	4,950	4,950	+0	No	-$27	01-15 18:59
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	4	$676	1,429	5,484	-4,055	No	+$276	03-11 20:14
israel strikes iran by march 31 2026	8	$535	1,036	0	+1,036	Yes	+$501	01-25 07:28
will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	12	$290	460	160	+300	No	-$157	04-12 17:28
fifwc qat che 2026 06 13 total 1pt5	1	$150	183	0	+183	Over	+$33	06-13 17:56
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	3	$135	1,000	500	+500	No	-$35	04-02 08:36
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 10:50 UTC	3	$75	106	0	+106	Up	-$9	03-21 10:54
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?	2	$63	113	113	+0	No	-$45	05-18 04:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	12	$62	81	81	+0	Down	+$12	05-15 18:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	4	$57	89	89	+0	Down	+$17	05-16 17:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	2	$57	65	65	+0	Up	+$17	05-16 18:37
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 15:50 UTC	14	$55	80	20	+60	Down	-$15	03-21 15:55
israel strikes iran by january 23 2026	4	$54	1,980	1,980	+0	No	-$50	01-24 13:30
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?	1	$52	105	0	+105	Yes	+$53	05-10 16:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	6	$51	64	64	+0	Up	+$11	05-15 18:39
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026?	1	$51	102	0	+102	No	-$51	05-17 16:12
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	1	$50	101	0	+101	No	-$50	05-13 20:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	2	$50	82	82	+0	Up	+$10	05-17 06:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	4	$48	69	69	+0	Up	+$8	05-14 21:23
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	3	$47	115	115	+0	No	-$36	05-21 13:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	2	$46	74	74	+0	Down	+$6	05-16 18:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	3	$42	369	369	+0	Down	+$2	05-22 08:37
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-21 17:30 UTC	5	$40	40	20	+20	Up	$0	03-21 17:44
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-21 18:00 UTC	8	$40	78	0	+78	Up	+$0	03-21 18:11
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?	1	$39	106	0	+106	No	-$39	05-13 21:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	4	$37	138	138	+0	Down	-$3	05-17 06:44
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 17:55 UTC	14	$32	60	10	+50	Up	-$1	03-02 17:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-18 01:46:02	Will the Milwaukee Bucks finish with the worst record in the NBA in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0xd2ab40…
10-17 14:27:42	Will Thibaut Courtois (Real Madrid) record the most clean sheets in the 2026-27 La Liga season?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x4affdf…
10-17 14:27:41	Will Thibaut Courtois (Real Madrid) record the most clean sheets in the 2026-27 La Liga season?	Yes	BUY	0	18¢	$0	0x4673cb…
10-17 14:08:20	Will Trump's approval rating hit 36% by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	12	70¢	$8	0x7755b4…
10-17 08:19:41	Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0x8c19a6…
09-05 02:28:04	XRP Up or Down - September 4, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	32	30¢	$10	0xdba8db…
09-05 00:55:39	XRP Up or Down - September 4, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	27	36¢	$10	0x3d0bc4…
09-04 05:11:52	XRP Up or Down - September 4, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	25	19¢	$5	0x984453…
09-03 15:11:36	Ethereum Up or Down - September 3, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	12	45¢	$5	0xd869fe…
09-03 15:11:34	Ethereum Up or Down - September 3, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0x6a32ab…
09-03 11:55:24	XRP Up or Down - September 3, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	30	32¢	$10	0x6bebb0…
09-03 10:09:24	XRP Up or Down - September 3, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	29	31¢	$9	0x8cecc2…
08-29 23:27:30	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-29 23:15 UTC	Down	BUY	22	43¢	$10	0x7eaf43…
08-29 09:54:40	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-29 09:45 UTC	Down	BUY	25	41¢	$10	0xb72977…
08-28 23:09:21	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-28 23:00 UTC	Down	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x7b16a1…
08-17 10:58:00	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-17 10:45 UTC	Down	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x68850a…
08-12 13:41:48	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 13:30 UTC	Down	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x68e28b…
08-10 08:27:12	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-10 08:15 UTC	Up	BUY	18	36¢	$6	0xa57192…
08-10 08:27:10	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-10 08:15 UTC	Up	BUY	7	35¢	$3	0xface59…
08-07 21:41:31	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-07 21:30 UTC	Up	BUY	26	37¢	$10	0x27492c…
08-07 05:44:07	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-07 05:30 UTC	Up	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0xb6c271…
08-06 15:59:42	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-06 15:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x85eed0…
08-06 13:59:36	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-06 13:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	73¢	$1	0xcd575e…
08-06 13:27:24	HYPE Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-06 13:15 UTC	Down	BUY	9	47¢	$4	0xecbc51…
08-05 15:29:08	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-05 15:15 UTC	Down	BUY	2	79¢	$2	0x45ddba…
08-05 15:26:33	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-05 15:15 UTC	Down	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x216c55…
08-05 13:44:18	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-05 13:30 UTC	Up	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x13c670…
08-04 15:14:15	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-04 15:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x4351f3…
08-04 00:14:15	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-04 00:00 UTC	Down	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x825307…
08-03 15:59:09	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-03 15:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0xcdedcd…
08-03 15:44:09	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-03 15:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x9acabd…
08-03 14:44:38	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-03 14:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0xb83b7e…
08-03 00:44:14	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-03 00:30 UTC	Up	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0x2be548…
08-02 13:54:39	HYPE Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-02 13:45 UTC	Up	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xab4d2b…
08-02 13:54:39	HYPE Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-02 13:45 UTC	Up	BUY	6	59¢	$4	0x4db07a…
08-02 01:29:27	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-02 01:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0xa086a6…
08-01 02:14:35	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-01 02:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x142a49…
07-31 15:14:09	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-31 15:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x703503…
07-31 14:59:15	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-31 14:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x041f3e…
07-31 14:12:08	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-31 14:00 UTC	Down	BUY	10	44¢	$5	0xa407c2…
07-31 14:11:33	HYPE Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-31 14:00 UTC	Down	BUY	9	59¢	$5	0x8359cf…
07-30 15:14:35	Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0xd58324…
07-30 14:44:29	Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	77¢	$2	0x16a07f…
07-30 08:14:14	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-30 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0x0c906f…
07-30 03:14:35	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-30 03:00 UTC	Down	BUY	2	77¢	$2	0x07845f…
07-30 03:14:05	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-30 03:00 UTC	Down	BUY	2	76¢	$2	0xee98b3…
07-30 02:14:05	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-30 02:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x86390b…
07-29 21:10:32	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-29 21:00 UTC	Down	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x289829…
07-29 20:26:05	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-29 20:15 UTC	Up	BUY	9	31¢	$3	0x69cba4…
07-29 20:26:02	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-29 20:15 UTC	Up	BUY	17	41¢	$7	0xefb3ab…
07-29 20:25:57	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-29 20:15 UTC	Up	BUY	10	47¢	$4	0xebf0a9…
07-29 18:59:18	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-29 18:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x124ceb…
07-29 18:59:06	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-29 18:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x706008…
07-29 15:59:20	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-29 15:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x4ae531…
07-29 15:11:24	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-29 15:00 UTC	Up	BUY	9	48¢	$4	0x4cdb9c…
07-29 14:59:44	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-29 14:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	75¢	$2	0x94ef52…
07-29 14:41:18	HYPE Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-29 14:30 UTC	Down	BUY	10	46¢	$4	0x922336…
07-29 14:24:51	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-29 14:15 UTC	Up	BUY	9	47¢	$4	0xf6c620…
07-29 14:24:33	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-29 14:15 UTC	Up	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0xc10ecc…
07-29 13:59:41	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-29 13:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2	75¢	$2	0x80ad53…
07-29 13:59:08	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-29 13:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2	79¢	$2	0xb8d6fb…
07-29 04:14:09	Solana Up or Down - July 29, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xdd7bba…
07-29 04:11:30	XRP Up or Down - July 29, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xaadd6c…
07-29 00:40:38	Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0x2c773e…
07-28 23:26:10	XRP Up or Down - July 28, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xb07621…
07-28 23:14:32	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-28 23:00 UTC	Down	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x133372…
07-28 18:29:10	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-28 18:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0x2f61a3…
07-28 18:25:11	HYPE Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-28 18:15 UTC	Up	BUY	9	50¢	$4	0xf70607…
07-28 15:59:04	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-28 15:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x1fe40c…
07-28 15:11:07	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-28 15:00 UTC	Up	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x0670d1…
07-28 15:10:52	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-28 15:00 UTC	Up	BUY	9	47¢	$4	0x36ee63…
07-28 14:29:13	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-28 14:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x4ebede…
07-28 01:29:16	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-28 01:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x68819a…
07-27 23:14:10	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-27 23:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x7af7dd…
07-27 17:24:06	HYPE Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-27 17:15 UTC	Up	BUY	8	54¢	$4	0xbc56cb…
07-27 17:12:12	HYPE Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-27 17:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x65c0fa…
07-27 15:44:31	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-27 15:30 UTC	Up	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x738c0f…
07-27 15:10:40	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-27 15:00 UTC	Down	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0x87d3ee…
07-27 14:14:04	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-27 14:00 UTC	Down	BUY	2	76¢	$2	0x614a1e…
07-26 23:12:28	HYPE Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-26 23:00 UTC	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xbf999d…
07-26 16:42:07	HYPE Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-26 16:30 UTC	Up	BUY	9	50¢	$5	0x8fa9fc…
07-25 03:14:04	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-25 03:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x391d9c…
07-24 23:44:07	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-24 23:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0xdd5587…
07-24 17:14:07	Ethereum Up or Down - July 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	76¢	$5	0x957fe2…
07-24 15:44:18	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-24 15:30 UTC	Down	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0xa8fabb…
07-24 15:29:06	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-24 15:15 UTC	Up	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xd0b110…
07-24 15:14:37	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-24 15:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0xe79cbc…
07-24 14:29:07	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-24 14:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0xcc61ae…
07-24 14:12:55	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-24 14:00 UTC	Up	BUY	32	17¢	$5	0x3c9a4c…
07-24 11:29:04	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-24 11:15 UTC	Down	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0x8f07fb…
07-23 17:14:04	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-23 17:00 UTC	Down	BUY	6	73¢	$5	0x1ce9ff…
07-23 14:29:04	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-23 14:15 UTC	Up	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0xe5c1af…
07-23 12:59:19	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-23 12:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x718d93…
07-23 03:29:13	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-23 03:15 UTC	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x46f749…
07-23 00:44:09	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-23 00:30 UTC	Down	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0x5be8f9…
07-22 21:59:04	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-22 21:45 UTC	Down	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0xba2d33…
07-22 19:59:30	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-22 19:45 UTC	Up	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0xcba016…
07-22 19:59:28	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-22 19:45 UTC	Up	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x6a63df…
07-22 19:59:18	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-22 19:45 UTC	Up	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xa29be3…
07-22 16:10:19	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-22 16:00 UTC	Up	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0xf7769c…