Waterlogged-Fritter — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$19.2K

Unrealized P&L

-$171

Hit rate

29.5%

Resolved

204

Trades

606

lifetime

Volume

$86.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$142

Open exposure

$439

1 position

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-24 16:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 129 days

Categories

Crypto

97% 13% -$18,824

Other

3% 46% -$308

Politics

0% 67% -$23

Sports

0% 0% -$51

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?	Yes		+1,034	$610	42¢	$439	-$171	10-24 16:34

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will bitcoin dip to 80k in january 2026	1	$11.8K	0	11,765	-11,765	Yes	-$12	01-31 18:30
bitcoin above 70k on february 7	44	$6.4K	8,813	8,813	+0	No	+$3,377	02-07 00:25
will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	27	$4.9K	17,608	6,609	+11,000	No	-$1,189	03-23 19:44
bitcoin above 70k on march 4	3	$4.8K	4,938	4,938	+0	Yes	+$3,699	03-04 14:05
bitcoin above 68k on february 13	5	$4.2K	3,932	3,932	+0	Yes	+$2,887	02-13 16:13
will bitcoin reach 80000 in february 298	3	$3.6K	13,233	13,233	+0	No	-$3,368	02-23 17:27
bitcoin above 88k on january 2	1	$3.0K	9,227	0	+9,227	Yes	-$2,992	01-02 05:32
will bitcoin reach 75000 in february 858 936	2	$2.3K	12,446	0	+12,446	No	-$2,262	02-21 18:20
bitcoin above 76k on march 5	60	$2.0K	13,350	0	+13,350	No	-$2,002	03-04 20:01
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2?	4	$1.9K	1,855	1,855	+0	No	+$1,602	06-02 13:50
will bitcoin reach 84k february 2 8	2	$1.5K	4,420	0	+4,420	No	-$1,500	02-02 17:54
microstrategy sells any bitcoin by march 31 2026	3	$1.5K	1,000	500	+500	No	+$4	02-08 05:57
will bitcoin reach 94k december 29 january 4	2	$1.2K	6,552	0	+6,552	No	-$1,250	01-04 06:08
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?	9	$1.1K	4,500	4,500	+0	No	+$104	06-03 17:39
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7?	1	$1000	1,297	0	+1,297	Yes	-$1,000	06-02 16:49
bitcoin above 70k on february 20	6	$986	10,441	0	+10,441	No	-$986	02-19 03:38
bitcoin above 74k on march 5	15	$962	5,345	0	+5,345	No	-$962	03-05 02:57
will bitcoin reach 70k february 23 march 1	7	$960	4,393	0	+4,393	No	-$960	02-28 18:52
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 24?	2	$870	772	772	+0	No	+$672	10-24 16:24
bitcoin above 76k on march 18	8	$858	3,731	0	+3,731	No	-$858	03-17 20:31
bitcoin above 72k on april 9	2	$822	835	781	+54	Yes	+$709	04-09 15:56
spx opens up or down on march 5 2026	2	$798	657	657	+0	Down	-$43	03-05 01:11
will bitcoin reach 74k april 6 12	2	$735	1,500	0	+1,500	No	-$735	04-09 15:57
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14?	2	$640	540	540	+0	No	-$126	06-10 19:17
bitcoin above 88k on january 3	3	$624	12,812	0	+12,812	Yes	-$624	01-03 07:29
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?	1	$610	1,034	0	+1,034	open	—	10-24 16:34
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 June 1-7?	3	$588	355	355	+0	Yes	+$88	06-02 13:48
bitcoin above 68k on february 20	3	$562	2,462	0	+2,462	No	-$562	02-20 00:47
bitcoin above 70k on march 3	2	$517	7,609	0	+7,609	No	-$517	03-03 15:37
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 5-11?	1	$516	1,148	0	+1,148	No	-$516	10-08 19:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 16:37:32	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 26?	No	BUY	237	19¢	$45	0x59148d…
10-24 16:34:17	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	1,034	59¢	$610	0xccd7b0…
10-24 16:24:45	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 24?	No	SELL	772	100¢	$771	0xd036a6…
10-23 04:45:21	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 24?	No	BUY	772	13¢	$99	0xcd12e9…
10-17 01:00:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 01:00 UTC	Up	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0x304b4f…
10-14 22:14:15	bitcoin above 80k on october 16 2026	No	BUY	1,260	20¢	$252	0xaa72bd…
10-08 19:36:33	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 5-11?	Yes	BUY	1,148	45¢	$516	0x6ccf26…
10-05 15:16:01	Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 October 5-11?	Yes	BUY	53	51¢	$27	0x520cda…
09-17 00:59:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 01:00 UTC	Up	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x5e879c…
09-16 02:32:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x329070…
09-15 22:13:07	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 16?	No	BUY	935	19¢	$176	0x040ced…
09-15 19:05:34	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 16?	No	BUY	1,485	14¢	$202	0xb0f097…
09-15 00:33:15	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 15?	No	BUY	401	51¢	$205	0x28028d…
09-04 14:12:24	bitcoin above 80k on september 4 2026	No	SELL	183	80¢	$147	0xf66938…
09-04 14:11:15	bitcoin above 80k on september 4 2026	No	SELL	103	80¢	$83	0x110eef…
09-04 01:13:54	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 5?	No	BUY	606	9¢	$54	0x3a6c57…
09-03 22:14:51	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 4?	No	BUY	286	19¢	$54	0x37aeec…
09-03 01:50:49	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 3?	No	BUY	227	8¢	$18	0xe6903e…
08-31 01:18:52	bitcoin above 76k on august 31 2026	No	BUY	23	10¢	$2	0x3e9a70…
08-31 01:17:16	bitcoin above 76k on august 31 2026	No	BUY	1,380	10¢	$139	0xd46126…
08-31 01:17:01	bitcoin above 78k on august 31 2026	No	SELL	248	62¢	$153	0x2df72b…
08-30 17:19:54	bitcoin above 78k on august 31 2026	No	BUY	248	21¢	$52	0x829b86…
08-20 23:21:33	bitcoin above 72k on august 21 2026	No	BUY	226	24¢	$55	0x136877…
08-20 19:21:40	bitcoin above 70k on august 21 2026	No	BUY	172	6¢	$11	0xc960ab…
08-18 22:30:06	bitcoin above 62k on august 19 2026	No	SELL	1,802	0¢	$8	0xe6236d…
08-17 23:57:21	bitcoin above 62k on august 18 2026	No	SELL	1,192	0¢	$5	0x7c51f8…
08-17 17:24:40	bitcoin above 62k on august 19 2026	No	BUY	1,802	3¢	$56	0x8c3e11…
08-16 20:01:04	bitcoin above 62k on august 18 2026	No	BUY	1,192	15¢	$183	0x4c1005…
08-07 23:17:24	bitcoin above 64k on august 10 2026	No	BUY	511	21¢	$107	0x05cfcd…
08-06 22:34:42	bitcoin above 62k on august 7 2026	No	BUY	1,698	1¢	$22	0x7e944b…
08-06 20:13:56	bitcoin above 64k on august 7 2026	No	BUY	196	28¢	$55	0xd0e52a…
07-31 18:13:06	Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-07-31?	Yes	BUY	570	61¢	$347	0xb68653…
07-31 16:04:41	bitcoin above 64k on july 31 2026	No	SELL	355	100¢	$355	0xd4f64f…
07-30 22:32:11	bitcoin above 64k on july 31 2026	No	BUY	315	15¢	$47	0x97c58e…
07-30 22:31:54	bitcoin above 64k on july 31 2026	No	BUY	40	14¢	$6	0x617a8d…
07-24 00:57:21	bitcoin above 66k on july 24 2026	Yes	BUY	65	12¢	$8	0x7d1acc…
07-24 00:57:03	will bitcoin reach 68k july 20 26 2026	Yes	SELL	105	8¢	$9	0xc296e9…
07-21 18:56:03	will bitcoin reach 68k july 20 26 2026	Yes	BUY	105	52¢	$55	0xf7a111…
07-17 00:47:50	bitcoin above 62k on july 17 2026	No	BUY	539	5¢	$26	0xe05b76…
07-13 22:38:40	bitcoin above 60k on july 14 2026	No	BUY	609	4¢	$26	0x80a9fc…
07-09 22:14:07	will bitcoin reach 64k on july 9	No	BUY	51	90¢	$46	0x0b1878…
07-09 22:05:56	bitcoin above 62k on july 10 2026	No	BUY	455	11¢	$50	0xd438ab…
07-09 21:57:11	Will France win on 2026-07-09?	Yes	SELL	99	100¢	$99	0x043e71…
07-09 21:15:11	Will France win on 2026-07-09?	Yes	BUY	99	59¢	$59	0xb8c724…
07-09 00:31:22	bitcoin above 62k on july 9 2026	No	BUY	153	40¢	$61	0xebb9f8…
06-30 22:36:50	bitcoin above 58k on july 1 2026	No	BUY	226	31¢	$70	0x0adc30…
06-30 22:36:08	Will France win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	SELL	75	100¢	$74	0x9358ee…
06-30 21:14:43	Will France win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	BUY	75	75¢	$56	0x6d411f…
06-25 21:22:23	Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	BUY	207	54¢	$112	0x7e179b…
06-22 19:19:05	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x5d6ad2…
06-22 17:24:26	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	7	61¢	$4	0xba6741…
06-18 20:43:46	bitcoin above 62k on june 19 2026	Yes	BUY	4	82¢	$3	0x0ed5a9…
06-18 20:42:29	bitcoin above 62k on june 19 2026	No	BUY	1,158	18¢	$211	0x361478…
06-18 01:39:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-18 01:40 UTC	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xa04b59…
06-17 15:30:40	bitcoin above 64k on june 17 2026	No	SELL	1,223	0¢	$2	0x53e9cd…
06-17 02:51:48	bitcoin above 64k on june 17 2026	No	BUY	629	5¢	$31	0xd548aa…
06-15 18:30:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17?	No	BUY	594	5¢	$27	0x75b2f0…
06-13 23:16:58	bitcoin above 62k on june 15 2026	No	BUY	1,043	5¢	$52	0x5fde44…
06-12 19:59:25	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15?	No	BUY	1,234	4¢	$53	0x094e33…
06-10 19:18:43	bitcoin above 58k on june 12 2026	No	BUY	474	7¢	$34	0x4ce482…
06-10 19:17:40	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11?	No	BUY	1,579	13¢	$200	0x864a25…
06-10 19:17:22	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14?	Yes	SELL	540	48¢	$257	0x45e41f…
06-09 22:51:22	bitcoin above 60k on june 10 2026	No	BUY	427	13¢	$53	0x1f2293…
06-09 16:57:46	will bitcoin dip to 60k june 8 14 2026	Yes	BUY	540	71¢	$383	0x1bfb56…
06-09 16:39:24	bitcoin above 62k on june 9 2026	No	SELL	402	100¢	$401	0xf3dfc9…
06-08 23:05:12	bitcoin above 62k on june 9 2026	No	BUY	402	13¢	$53	0x7ea73f…
06-07 04:06:00	bitcoin above 58k on june 8 2026	No	BUY	483	11¢	$53	0xc81fae…
06-05 20:00:27	bitcoin above 58k on june 6 2026	No	BUY	27	12¢	$3	0x136510…
06-05 20:00:04	bitcoin above 58k on june 6 2026	No	BUY	1,571	13¢	$208	0x0a08f3…
06-04 20:03:42	will bitcoin reach 66k on june 4	Yes	BUY	221	5¢	$12	0x5b7ee3…
06-04 20:03:10	bitcoin above 68k on june 5 2026	Yes	SELL	1,187	1¢	$14	0x99c8d2…
06-04 02:17:07	bitcoin above 68k on june 5 2026	Yes	BUY	177	4¢	$7	0x8e0ba5…
06-03 17:42:48	Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 1-7?	No	BUY	590	82¢	$481	0x329892…
06-03 17:41:22	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5?	Yes	BUY	1,010	23¢	$230	0xebf011…
06-03 17:39:48	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4?	Yes	BUY	486	13¢	$65	0x5710c6…
06-03 17:39:12	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?	Yes	SELL	4,500	14¢	$621	0xb3be7e…
06-03 10:11:02	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?	Yes	BUY	3,172	12¢	$365	0x0baa5f…
06-03 06:38:07	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?	Yes	BUY	86	12¢	$10	0x407143…
06-03 06:37:40	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?	Yes	BUY	90	12¢	$10	0xb32c41…
06-03 06:11:20	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?	Yes	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0x84b2b9…
06-03 06:08:06	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?	Yes	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0x43207e…
06-03 06:07:40	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?	Yes	BUY	71	12¢	$8	0x507005…
06-03 06:06:47	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?	Yes	BUY	179	12¢	$21	0xcc4090…
06-03 06:06:07	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?	Yes	BUY	801	12¢	$92	0x753d62…
06-03 04:11:15	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4?	Yes	BUY	395	25¢	$100	0x83cfcc…
06-03 03:55:04	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3?	Yes	BUY	570	9¢	$50	0x9923ff…
06-03 03:48:13	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4?	Yes	BUY	222	18¢	$40	0x50baee…
06-02 23:07:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3?	Yes	BUY	289	17¢	$50	0xaf0e46…
06-02 22:56:15	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3?	Yes	BUY	400	24¢	$94	0xfb2351…
06-02 22:53:59	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3?	Yes	BUY	464	21¢	$97	0x6af0ec…
06-02 20:49:54	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3?	Yes	BUY	715	7¢	$47	0xd50cf5…
06-02 20:48:48	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4?	Yes	BUY	707	14¢	$100	0xa75a31…
06-02 18:31:08	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4?	Yes	BUY	989	13¢	$129	0x398e56…
06-02 18:28:25	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4?	Yes	BUY	11	13¢	$1	0x9844b3…
06-02 17:09:33	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4?	Yes	BUY	11	12¢	$1	0x1b65fa…
06-02 16:49:33	Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7?	No	BUY	1,297	77¢	$1,000	0x63c243…
06-02 13:50:19	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2?	No	SELL	1,855	95¢	$1,760	0x432186…
06-02 13:48:01	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 June 1-7?	Yes	SELL	309	100¢	$309	0xfb2478…
06-01 22:47:45	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 June 1-7?	Yes	SELL	46	64¢	$30	0x1815f3…
06-01 17:34:07	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on June 1?	Yes	BUY	376	9¢	$34	0x2fccf3…