Wet-Thunderbolt — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4

Unrealized P&L

+$1.55K

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$70.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.08K

Open exposure

$20.1K

3 positions

First seen

2026-02-28

last 06-11 17:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

88% 100% +$1

Politics

12% 100% +$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	+17,804	$15,300	94¢	$16.8K	+$1,525	06-11 17:49
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	-3,078	$-2,994	100¢	$-3064	$-70	06-11 17:42
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	-233	$-325	97¢	$-225	+$100	06-11 17:48

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	6	$19.2K	10,351	10,351	+0	open	—	05-31 18:43
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	8	$15.3K	17,804	0	+17,804	open	—	06-11 17:49
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	2	$13.0K	10,110	3,033	+7,077	open	—	06-02 15:09
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	6	$10.4K	5,419	5,419	+0	open	—	05-23 23:05
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	3	$4.3K	2,568	2,801	-233	open	—	06-11 17:48
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	1	$3.0K	0	3,078	-3,078	open	—	06-11 17:42
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	2	$2.0K	1,099	1,099	+0	open	—	06-11 17:42
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	3	$1.4K	1,480	0	+1,480	open	—	05-18 15:24
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$344	205	205	+0	open	—	05-19 05:39
russia strike impacts kyiv municipality during week of march 2 2026	4	$311	240	240	+0	open	—	03-13 17:40
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	2	$103	62	62	+0	Yes	+$3	03-07 16:09
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	2	$101	70	70	+0	Yes	+$1	04-07 22:14
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	1	$91	141	0	+141	open	—	04-07 22:15
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	2	$81	51	51	+0	No	+$1	04-07 22:14
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	3	$62	394	0	+394	open	—	04-08 21:23
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$58	38	38	+0	open	—	03-13 21:34
us forces enter iran by march 7	2	$55	30	30	+0	open	—	03-05 16:37
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	1	$50	77	0	+77	open	—	03-31 03:23
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	1	$50	64	0	+64	open	—	03-31 10:12
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	2	$42	25	25	+0	open	—	03-06 23:20
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	1	$20	41	0	+41	open	—	03-31 04:10
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	1	$20	28	0	+28	open	—	02-28 05:52
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	1	$15	42	0	+42	open	—	03-31 04:11
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	2	$10	33	33	+0	open	—	04-05 11:58
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	1	$10	31	0	+31	open	—	04-03 15:55
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?	1	$10	29	0	+29	open	—	02-28 05:53
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	2	$8	143	0	+143	open	—	04-06 21:47
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	1	$2	71	0	+71	open	—	04-03 15:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-11 17:49:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	4,214	83¢	$3,500	0x6cae7a…
06-11 17:48:03	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	2,801	83¢	$2,325	0x983fbd…
06-11 17:43:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	4,652	86¢	$4,000	0x353651…
06-11 17:42:42	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,099	93¢	$1,022	0xf926c9…
06-11 17:42:27	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	3,078	97¢	$2,994	0x35431c…
06-11 17:42:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	2,342	85¢	$2,000	0xb93153…
06-10 13:57:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	3,297	91¢	$3,000	0x5ed1a2…
06-09 14:23:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1,124	89¢	$1,000	0xdaa2f9…
06-07 17:38:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1,136	88¢	$1,000	0x47deef…
06-02 22:49:47	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	1,299	77¢	$1,000	0xfd14f3…
06-02 22:48:44	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,099	91¢	$1,000	0x554838…
06-02 15:09:30	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	3,033	100¢	$3,030	0xb66b52…
06-01 19:13:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	617	81¢	$500	0x7c08da…
06-01 19:12:14	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	1,269	79¢	$1,000	0x047cd5…
05-31 18:46:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	423	71¢	$300	0xe88e68…
05-31 18:44:45	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	10,110	99¢	$10,000	0x7e731e…
05-31 18:43:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	10,351	100¢	$10,331	0x2fc997…
05-23 23:06:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	8,448	84¢	$7,100	0xd39c34…
05-23 23:05:04	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	5,419	98¢	$5,295	0xa6d2e4…
05-19 05:39:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	205	85¢	$174	0xe341ba…
05-19 05:08:20	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	2,402	96¢	$2,306	0xbaa5c9…
05-18 15:24:56	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	217	95¢	$205	0xf1f7b5…
05-17 03:38:54	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	1,102	95¢	$1,047	0x11e09e…
05-15 15:23:29	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	1,053	95¢	$1,000	0x029f63…
05-14 05:11:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	1,064	94¢	$1,000	0x87573e…
05-14 02:55:48	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	1,064	94¢	$1,000	0x454bbe…
05-13 22:50:13	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	211	95¢	$200	0xb1dd78…
05-13 22:29:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	319	94¢	$300	0xdefb18…
05-12 14:24:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	330	91¢	$300	0xa364de…
05-12 14:19:46	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	532	94¢	$500	0x80f464…
05-12 03:29:05	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	319	94¢	$300	0xc1e9d2…
05-12 03:02:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	191	89¢	$170	0x7b89f1…
05-12 03:00:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	205	83¢	$170	0x61edd8…
04-08 21:23:01	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	Yes	BUY	291	12¢	$35	0xce0cc8…
04-07 22:15:47	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	141	65¢	$91	0xf34e4d…
04-07 22:14:49	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	No	SELL	51	79¢	$41	0xdbf569…
04-07 22:14:41	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	SELL	70	72¢	$51	0x4388b6…
04-06 21:47:55	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	Yes	BUY	78	7¢	$5	0x149918…
04-06 21:47:29	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	Yes	BUY	43	28¢	$12	0x7f81c3…
04-05 11:58:23	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	SELL	33	0¢	$0	0xe18cdc…
04-03 15:58:35	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	No	BUY	51	78¢	$40	0xdcbc62…
04-03 15:55:09	US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	No	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0xc3d380…
04-03 15:53:19	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	Yes	BUY	60	25¢	$15	0x19a50a…
04-03 15:52:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	Yes	BUY	65	5¢	$3	0x2681f9…
04-03 15:52:01	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	Yes	BUY	71	3¢	$2	0x354bbe…
03-31 10:12:43	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	Yes	BUY	64	78¢	$50	0xec6f3b…
03-31 04:11:11	US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	No	BUY	42	36¢	$15	0x1b2257…
03-31 04:10:19	US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	No	BUY	41	49¢	$20	0x664bf7…
03-31 04:09:05	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0xa14b72…
03-31 03:28:21	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	BUY	70	71¢	$50	0x02f764…
03-31 03:23:53	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	No	BUY	77	65¢	$50	0x5d7180…
03-13 21:34:05	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	38	81¢	$31	0x39a4a0…
03-13 17:40:15	russia strike impacts kyiv municipality during week of march 2 2026	Yes	SELL	240	100¢	$239	0x0aa146…
03-07 16:10:15	russia strike impacts kyiv municipality during week of march 2 2026	Yes	BUY	174	29¢	$50	0xc2c68f…
03-07 16:09:47	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	62	84¢	$53	0x7778b7…
03-07 04:07:07	russia strike impacts kyiv municipality during week of march 2 2026	Yes	BUY	30	41¢	$12	0x41dfb7…
03-06 23:22:03	russia strike impacts kyiv municipality during week of march 2 2026	Yes	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0xf5ba93…
03-06 23:20:53	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	SELL	25	88¢	$22	0x852ed9…
03-05 18:12:25	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	38	72¢	$27	0x6d1fbb…
03-05 16:37:37	us forces enter iran by march 7	No	SELL	30	91¢	$27	0x5ad06a…
03-03 17:53:09	us forces enter iran by march 7	No	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0x4bc257…
03-03 17:50:35	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0xe53e78…
03-01 13:27:19	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	62	80¢	$50	0x94d857…
02-28 05:53:45	US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0x0d427a…
02-28 05:52:49	US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	No	BUY	28	71¢	$20	0xb5a563…