Imperfect-Conspiracy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$14.2K

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

88.5%

Resolved

120

Trades

965

lifetime

Volume

$2.05M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$2.13K

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-11

last 10-25 23:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 68 days

Categories

Politics

51% 81% +$9,354

Other

42% 71% +$3,018

Crypto

7% 100% +$1,180

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$756

Tech

0% 0% -$145

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 38 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No		+0	$0	8¢	$0	$0	10-03 13:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	28	$145.5K	146,700	0	+146,700	No	+$1,180	06-03 21:42
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	2	$114.3K	114,781	0	+114,781	Yes	+$509	07-20 22:28
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	25	$104.9K	111,838	0	+111,838	Yes	+$6,936	06-16 23:58
Will CXMT’s market cap be 400 billion yuan or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2026?	1	$99.8K	100,000	0	+100,000	Yes	+$200	07-27 07:15
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	7	$98.4K	100,367	0	+100,367	Yes	+$1,967	09-20 23:32
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09?	15	$88.9K	89,176	2,107	+87,069	No	+$2,330	06-08 06:53
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	25	$79.0K	86,501	0	+86,501	Yes	+$7,540	04-29 08:52
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	13	$72.6K	76,988	0	+76,988	Yes	+$4,380	02-28 20:08
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	7	$69.8K	70,000	0	+70,000	Yes	+$175	04-10 00:11
will israel take military action in lebanon on march 20 2026	17	$69.8K	70,000	0	+70,000	Yes	+$210	03-26 17:25
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	11	$63.7K	33,579	33,500	+79	No	+$3,324	04-24 21:31
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	84	$56.9K	107,176	10,357	+96,820	No	-$19,538	08-26 22:32
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	12	$50.0K	50,000	0	+50,000	No	+$50	06-29 23:20
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	1	$50.0K	50,000	0	+50,000	No	+$50	06-29 23:18
will iran strike israel on march 10	1	$49.8K	50,000	0	+50,000	Yes	+$200	03-14 22:13
another us government shutdown by february 14	2	$44.9K	45,884	0	+45,884	No	+$1,028	02-14 06:53
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	13	$43.1K	43,912	0	+43,912	Yes	+$766	02-02 06:40
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	40	$42.8K	54,335	20,548	+33,787	Yes	-$2,762	08-26 22:32
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	8	$40.2K	68,180	0	+68,180	No	+$28,006	05-23 10:20
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	2	$40.0K	40,000	0	+40,000	Yes	+$40	03-12 17:48
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	7	$39.8K	40,000	0	+40,000	Yes	+$200	04-07 15:43
will trump admin release any more epstein related files by 777	92	$37.9K	40,880	0	+40,880	Yes	+$2,931	02-03 10:00
will iran strike israel on march 6	19	$31.5K	31,643	0	+31,643	No	+$190	03-10 23:45
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	1	$30.0K	30,000	0	+30,000	Yes	+$30	04-24 10:56
will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	14	$28.7K	69,490	0	+69,490	Yes	-$28,704	06-18 19:59
will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be between 180m and 190m	10	$28.7K	32,080	0	+32,080	No	+$3,412	04-06 05:43
uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	17	$28.1K	31,858	0	+31,858	No	-$28,111	07-30 02:48
will spider man brand new day beat avengers endgames opening weekend record 20260731162713556	41	$26.1K	28,825	4,672	+24,153	Yes	+$1,683	08-03 15:05
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	7	$25.4K	29,426	0	+29,426	No	-$1,688	06-30 23:08
Will Trump say "Star" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	8	$23.1K	31,700	0	+31,700	Yes	-$23,072	10-16 22:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 23:02:59	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	2,231	82¢	$1,818	0x048cf8…
10-22 04:43:08	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0x8ba26f…
10-16 22:54:29	Will Trump say "Star" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	No	BUY	9,104	60¢	$5,462	0x9ef225…
10-16 22:54:26	Will Trump say "Star" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	No	BUY	231	60¢	$138	0x0a19dc…
10-16 22:54:17	Will Trump say "Star" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	No	BUY	666	60¢	$399	0x881770…
10-16 22:47:00	Will Trump say "Star" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	No	BUY	40	80¢	$32	0xb6860a…
10-16 22:46:57	Will Trump say "Star" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	No	BUY	6,781	79¢	$5,369	0x31fae2…
10-16 22:46:33	Will Trump say "Star" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	No	BUY	5,000	79¢	$3,950	0xc7e21f…
10-16 22:46:30	Will Trump say "Star" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	No	BUY	4,010	79¢	$3,168	0x5c7c0f…
10-16 22:46:23	Will Trump say "Star" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	No	BUY	5,868	78¢	$4,553	0xdb11b8…
10-14 16:15:27	Will Birmingham Legion FC win on 2026-10-14?	Yes	BUY	140	50¢	$70	0x8c8f00…
10-14 16:15:27	Will Birmingham Legion FC win on 2026-10-14?	Yes	BUY	9	50¢	$5	0x45bc56…
10-14 02:53:32	Will Birmingham Legion FC win on 2026-10-14?	Yes	BUY	124	50¢	$62	0xbf4688…
10-14 02:53:32	Will Birmingham Legion FC win on 2026-10-14?	Yes	BUY	335	50¢	$168	0x9dbba0…
10-14 02:53:32	Will Birmingham Legion FC win on 2026-10-14?	Yes	BUY	133	50¢	$66	0x9634b0…
10-13 11:39:41	Will Birmingham Legion FC win on 2026-10-14?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xf1a743…
10-13 09:10:55	Will Birmingham Legion FC win on 2026-10-14?	Yes	BUY	44	50¢	$22	0x2432a2…
10-13 08:19:29	Will Birmingham Legion FC win on 2026-10-10?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x54b304…
10-13 08:19:28	Will Birmingham Legion FC win on 2026-10-10?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x32e505…
10-13 08:19:17	Will Birmingham Legion FC win on 2026-10-10?	Yes	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0x6f3bf7…
10-13 03:42:51	Will Birmingham Legion FC win on 2026-10-10?	Yes	BUY	89	54¢	$48	0xdca101…
10-13 03:42:51	Will Birmingham Legion FC win on 2026-10-10?	Yes	BUY	123	54¢	$67	0x1eb676…
10-13 02:26:24	Will Birmingham Legion FC win on 2026-10-10?	No	BUY	72	50¢	$36	0xa3584a…
10-13 02:26:23	Will Birmingham Legion FC win on 2026-10-10?	No	BUY	123	50¢	$62	0x7ccd92…
10-13 02:24:44	Will Birmingham Legion FC win on 2026-10-10?	Yes	BUY	24	60¢	$15	0x148cbe…
10-13 01:54:53	Will Birmingham Legion FC win on 2026-10-10?	No	BUY	123	75¢	$92	0xc07108…
10-13 01:54:51	Will Birmingham Legion FC win on 2026-10-10?	No	BUY	129	75¢	$97	0x96b6d5…
10-13 01:54:36	Will Birmingham Legion FC win on 2026-10-10?	No	BUY	129	75¢	$97	0xcd617a…
10-13 01:54:23	Will Birmingham Legion FC win on 2026-10-10?	No	BUY	129	75¢	$97	0x124188…
10-13 01:54:05	Will Birmingham Legion FC win on 2026-10-10?	No	BUY	129	75¢	$97	0x6f3365…
10-13 01:53:48	Will Birmingham Legion FC win on 2026-10-10?	No	BUY	129	75¢	$97	0x1ebdb4…
10-13 01:53:48	Will Birmingham Legion FC win on 2026-10-10?	No	BUY	123	75¢	$92	0x07e090…
10-09 08:42:49	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	4,705	0¢	$9	0x52fdf4…
10-09 08:37:13	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$1	0xd5d176…
10-09 08:35:33	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,200	0¢	$2	0xcf0661…
10-09 08:35:16	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	4,760	0¢	$10	0x15e845…
10-09 08:35:04	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	4,000	0¢	$8	0xfbc5c1…
10-09 08:33:10	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	6,000	0¢	$12	0xf9893a…
10-09 08:33:09	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	675	0¢	$1	0xaa7ca3…
10-09 08:31:54	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	0¢	$0	0xb68ced…
10-09 08:17:15	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5,000	0¢	$10	0x24c030…
10-09 08:15:10	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	611	0¢	$1	0x0e81a6…
10-09 07:24:52	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	1,044	53¢	$550	0x27e479…
10-09 07:24:49	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	27	53¢	$14	0xd221d5…
10-09 07:24:37	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	30	53¢	$16	0x8e2079…
10-09 07:22:58	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	6,551	52¢	$3,407	0xf5deaa…
10-09 07:22:57	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	55	52¢	$29	0xa7e45a…
10-09 07:22:43	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	6,608	52¢	$3,436	0xf272bc…
10-09 07:22:33	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	6,607	52¢	$3,436	0xdeead7…
10-09 07:22:25	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	1	52¢	$0	0x057bfc…
10-09 07:19:52	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	6,547	53¢	$3,477	0xf6181b…
10-09 07:19:31	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	17	53¢	$9	0x83fc27…
10-03 13:09:08	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	6	37¢	$2	0xaef6fe…
10-03 07:17:59	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	222	40¢	$89	0x99c2b6…
10-03 07:17:32	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	200	40¢	$80	0x996e92…
10-03 07:17:27	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	1,487	40¢	$595	0xdd7b43…
10-03 07:17:27	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	4,934	40¢	$1,974	0x2343d2…
10-02 23:09:21	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	4,849	40¢	$1,940	0xc21b94…
10-02 23:08:56	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	1,889	40¢	$756	0xfe4d95…
09-20 23:32:01	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	26,539	98¢	$25,928	0xa2ab2b…
09-20 23:31:19	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	7,498	98¢	$7,356	0x315498…
09-20 23:23:22	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	13,994	98¢	$13,729	0xcb83a1…
09-20 23:18:20	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	16,539	98¢	$16,224	0x883a85…
09-10 08:51:52	Counter-Strike: Chicken Coop Esports vs Marsborne (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest: North American Qualifier Playoffs	Marsborne	BUY	2,550	73¢	$1,861	0x902985…
09-10 08:44:28	Counter-Strike: Chicken Coop Esports vs Marsborne (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest: North American Qualifier Playoffs	Marsborne	BUY	3,645	78¢	$2,857	0x24f4c6…
09-10 08:41:22	Counter-Strike: Chicken Coop Esports vs Marsborne (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest: North American Qualifier Playoffs	Marsborne	BUY	3,700	77¢	$2,832	0xb5ef2b…
09-10 08:34:39	Counter-Strike: Chicken Coop Esports vs Marsborne (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest: North American Qualifier Playoffs	Marsborne	BUY	5,103	75¢	$3,827	0xf1ced9…
09-10 08:34:00	Counter-Strike: Chicken Coop Esports vs Marsborne (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest: North American Qualifier Playoffs	Marsborne	BUY	4,000	75¢	$3,000	0x4e3932…
09-05 00:22:01	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	Yes	BUY	237	40¢	$95	0xf0bc1a…
09-05 00:22:01	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	Yes	BUY	83	40¢	$33	0x4fdef0…
09-05 00:22:01	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	Yes	BUY	17	40¢	$7	0x0559cf…
08-31 00:11:33	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	169	24¢	$40	0x4a49b9…
08-31 00:07:07	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	798	23¢	$187	0x4b1e73…
08-30 23:51:00	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by september 9 2026	Yes	BUY	45	34¢	$15	0x985263…
08-30 23:50:52	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	712	23¢	$162	0xa1de23…
08-27 21:11:24	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	103	74¢	$76	0x6f639d…
08-27 20:56:34	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	3,622	74¢	$2,680	0x929c0a…
08-26 22:32:12	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	No	BUY	3,352	95¢	$3,179	0xed069c…
08-26 22:32:12	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	508	95¢	$483	0xcbd768…
08-26 22:32:12	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	No	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x96cf5b…
08-24 07:01:24	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	105	67¢	$70	0xf23c40…
08-24 05:54:46	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	9	67¢	$6	0x9ffe96…
08-24 04:39:10	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	50	67¢	$34	0xbd7e82…
08-24 04:35:37	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 38m and 41m?	Yes	BUY	637	100¢	$634	0xcd3f77…
08-22 15:04:51	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 900m by August 31?	No	BUY	242	24¢	$58	0x96600a…
08-22 15:03:22	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 900m by August 31?	No	BUY	401	24¢	$96	0x4ae167…
08-22 15:03:01	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 900m by August 31?	No	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xb0506c…
08-22 14:36:28	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 900m by August 31?	No	BUY	17	24¢	$4	0x02ed36…
08-20 10:34:07	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 900m and 920m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	654	40¢	$259	0x415ce7…
08-20 10:34:06	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	6,600	41¢	$2,681	0xbdf64c…
08-20 10:34:06	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	No	BUY	2,779	41¢	$1,139	0xbd3a47…
08-20 10:34:06	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 900m by August 31?	No	BUY	450	40¢	$180	0xa32845…
08-18 14:16:42	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	No	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0x3fb252…
08-18 14:16:31	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	No	BUY	240	53¢	$127	0xfbb757…
08-18 14:16:28	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	No	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x2fc41d…
08-18 14:16:27	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	No	BUY	100	53¢	$53	0xff9c14…
08-18 14:16:27	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	No	BUY	6,980	51¢	$3,526	0xeae550…
08-18 14:16:27	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 900m by August 31?	No	BUY	54	53¢	$29	0x819f07…
08-18 14:16:27	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	No	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x585707…
08-18 14:16:27	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	No	BUY	106	53¢	$56	0x4cfa44…