Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$6.11K

Unrealized P&L

-$457

Hit rate

61.0%

Resolved

619

Trades

714

lifetime

Volume

$13.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

$753

12 positions

First seen

2026-09-23

last 11-06 14:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 37 days

Categories

Crypto

59% 81% +$6,188

Other

34% — —

Politics

6% 0% -$81

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

32 active days in 12wk • peak 191 trades/day

Open positions (12) Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by November 30?	Yes	+485	$38	38¢	$183	+$145	11-06 14:13
NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?	Yes	+3,505	$187	4¢	$131	-$55	11-05 13:09
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in November?	Yes	+500	$80	18¢	$88	+$8	11-05 12:31
NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	Yes	+6,257	$200	1¢	$66	-$135	11-03 22:19
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	+1,010	$55	6¢	$64	+$9	11-05 12:33
Will no qualifying Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place by December 31, 2027?	Yes	+1,794	$110	3¢	$56	-$55	11-02 23:14
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in November?	Yes	+500	$60	10¢	$50	-$10	11-05 12:31
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by November 30?	Yes	+154	$16	26¢	$41	+$25	11-06 14:14
Tusk out by December 31?	Yes	+699	$100	4¢	$31	-$68	10-31 00:27
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	+1,000	$246	3¢	$27	-$219	11-02 03:12
Nawrocki out by December 31?	Yes	+700	$119	2¢	$16	-$103	10-30 22:11
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.9T and 1.2T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	+5	$0	14¢	$1	+$0	11-06 14:26

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	14	$3.0K	2,010	2,010	+0	open	—	11-04 19:50
US imports Russian diesel by January 31?	7	$1.0K	937	937	+0	open	—	11-04 11:52
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on November 5?	1	$308	1,398	0	+1,398	No	+$1,090	11-05 14:20
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 24?	7	$272	341	0	+341	No	-$272	10-23 22:55
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 22?	2	$271	1,237	0	+1,237	Yes	-$271	10-22 13:52
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on October 30?	2	$257	1,124	0	+1,124	Yes	-$257	10-30 13:46
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 28?	2	$249	1,083	0	+1,083	Yes	-$249	10-28 11:17
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on November 4?	1	$247	1,123	0	+1,123	No	+$876	11-04 14:40
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	8	$246	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	11-02 03:12
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on October 31?	1	$244	341	0	+341	Yes	+$97	10-30 20:22
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 21?	1	$225	980	0	+980	No	+$755	10-21 13:34
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 20?	1	$210	954	0	+954	No	+$744	10-20 13:14
NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	3	$200	6,257	0	+6,257	open	—	11-03 22:19
NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?	10	$187	3,505	0	+3,505	open	—	11-05 13:09
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on November 6?	2	$178	822	0	+822	Yes	-$178	11-06 13:52
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on November 5?	2	$150	715	0	+715	No	+$565	11-05 11:56
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 19?	2	$149	744	0	+744	No	+$595	10-19 13:02
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 17?	7	$145	210	0	+210	Yes	+$65	10-16 20:43
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on October 26?	1	$135	749	0	+749	Yes	-$135	10-26 10:31
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 16?	1	$128	584	0	+584	No	+$456	10-16 11:23
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on November 4?	1	$128	639	0	+639	No	+$511	11-04 11:00
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on October 30?	1	$126	599	0	+599	Yes	-$126	10-30 10:33
Nawrocki out by December 31?	3	$119	700	0	+700	open	—	10-30 22:11
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on October 27?	1	$118	592	0	+592	Yes	-$118	10-27 12:24
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on October 29?	1	$118	588	0	+588	Yes	-$118	10-29 10:04
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on October 21?	1	$117	900	0	+900	No	+$783	10-21 10:16
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on October 28?	1	$117	584	0	+584	Yes	-$117	10-28 10:06
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on November 3?	1	$116	553	0	+553	Yes	-$116	11-03 11:36
Will no qualifying Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place by December 31, 2027?	2	$110	1,794	0	+1,794	open	—	11-02 23:14
Tusk out by December 31?	9	$100	699	0	+699	open	—	10-31 00:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 14:26:45	Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.9T and 1.2T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x4c3e22…
11-06 14:14:07	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by November 30?	Yes	BUY	154	10¢	$16	0x561fc7…
11-06 14:13:07	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by November 30?	Yes	BUY	485	8¢	$38	0x0708ff…
11-06 13:52:03	Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on November 6?	No	BUY	663	22¢	$143	0xe08048…
11-06 13:30:04	Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on November 6?	No	BUY	159	22¢	$34	0xed153b…
11-05 14:20:04	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on November 5?	No	BUY	1,398	22¢	$308	0x541352…
11-05 13:09:43	NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,700	4¢	$59	0x952537…
11-05 12:33:52	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	1,010	5¢	$55	0xf625e2…
11-05 12:31:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in November?	Yes	BUY	500	12¢	$60	0x0d9d2a…
11-05 12:31:36	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in November?	Yes	BUY	500	16¢	$80	0xe37a8b…
11-05 11:56:16	Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on November 5?	No	BUY	1	21¢	$0	0xb41eb3…
11-05 11:56:13	Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on November 5?	No	BUY	714	21¢	$150	0xde8edf…
11-05 10:20:12	NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	4¢	$11	0x328049…
11-04 19:50:55	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	No	SELL	1,463	85¢	$1,244	0x308eb0…
11-04 19:50:54	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	No	SELL	26	85¢	$22	0x9ae9f3…
11-04 19:50:52	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	No	SELL	74	85¢	$63	0xd08db0…
11-04 19:50:52	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	No	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0xc21aa5…
11-04 19:50:52	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	No	SELL	50	85¢	$42	0xab36ee…
11-04 19:50:52	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	No	SELL	27	85¢	$23	0x1cd596…
11-04 19:50:52	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	No	SELL	50	85¢	$42	0x1747d0…
11-04 19:30:21	US imports Russian diesel before Russia x Ukraine peace talks?	No	SELL	21	79¢	$17	0xdd9adf…
11-04 17:40:28	NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0xda4af4…
11-04 15:50:21	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	No	SELL	9	85¢	$8	0xbad6c8…
11-04 15:16:00	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	No	SELL	135	85¢	$115	0xaa0073…
11-04 14:40:51	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0xce05bf…
11-04 14:40:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x61192e…
11-04 14:40:07	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on November 4?	No	BUY	1,123	22¢	$247	0x840f1c…
11-04 14:29:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x5a1eca…
11-04 14:14:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0xb6b4f8…
11-04 13:46:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0xe46ead…
11-04 13:44:01	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0x23bb87…
11-04 13:40:15	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x703425…
11-04 13:06:06	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	No	SELL	174	85¢	$148	0x18b473…
11-04 12:44:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x4d01bc…
11-04 12:40:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 7AM ET	Down	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x77d337…
11-04 11:52:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xf37a2f…
11-04 11:52:51	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0xc8e815…
11-04 11:52:03	US imports Russian diesel by January 31?	No	SELL	937	78¢	$730	0x3cb40e…
11-04 11:46:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0xe10d35…
11-04 11:44:04	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x9947f8…
11-04 11:44:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x2f6eed…
11-04 11:40:15	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x7fbde6…
11-04 11:00:16	Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on November 4?	No	BUY	639	20¢	$128	0xeeb4de…
11-04 10:59:00	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	66¢	$4	0x906ab4…
11-04 10:40:16	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 5AM ET	Up	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0xc04d55…
11-04 10:40:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 5AM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x75d236…
11-04 07:59:18	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x6a1184…
11-04 07:44:09	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x1ae1c5…
11-04 07:40:16	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0xaa13c1…
11-04 07:40:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x4269ec…
11-04 06:40:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xefb92d…
11-04 06:14:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x5d59d0…
11-04 05:59:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x5525fe…
11-04 05:40:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x946fd2…
11-04 05:40:15	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xa98741…
11-04 05:29:19	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x836ee6…
11-04 04:09:39	Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x63ec2f…
11-04 03:48:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x27e4b7…
11-04 02:40:16	Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x2132d3…
11-04 01:40:16	Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 8PM ET	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xd6147a…
11-04 01:40:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 8PM ET	Down	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x857fdd…
11-04 00:40:16	Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 7PM ET	Down	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0xc3f0a3…
11-04 00:07:03	NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	7¢	$1	0x3a8c06…
11-03 23:52:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0xad0065…
11-03 23:45:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x563c6e…
11-03 23:40:15	Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x762aff…
11-03 22:40:16	Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xfbe8a4…
11-03 22:40:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x48abc5…
11-03 22:19:04	NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	280	2¢	$6	0x693014…
11-03 22:18:54	NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	7¢	$0	0xf587b9…
11-03 22:18:52	NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	484	6¢	$31	0x5fc516…
11-03 21:43:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x930952…
11-03 21:40:51	Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x920793…
11-03 20:47:27	Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x8239d0…
11-03 20:42:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x97f72a…
11-03 19:59:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x04af37…
11-03 19:52:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xd2ecd6…
11-03 19:44:28	Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 2PM ET	Down	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x7c7fc4…
11-03 19:44:01	Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xdddc0e…
11-03 19:44:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0xb6c6a7…
11-03 18:47:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 1PM ET	Up	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x6a4716…
11-03 17:49:13	NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	560	8¢	$45	0x973aed…
11-03 17:49:13	NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	175	9¢	$16	0x4a4fca…
11-03 17:49:13	NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	82	9¢	$7	0x26fd6a…
11-03 17:49:12	NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	183	9¢	$16	0x1dc41e…
11-03 17:48:42	NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,477	2¢	$111	0xd2233e…
11-03 17:44:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0xf26cea…
11-03 17:14:27	Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xb89ef8…
11-03 16:42:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x029a87…
11-03 16:40:15	Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x659a51…
11-03 15:55:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x434c36…
11-03 15:52:52	Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x741c82…
11-03 15:41:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x3f48e1…
11-03 15:41:28	Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x25fe79…
11-03 14:59:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x2d4c3e…
11-03 13:40:52	Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x90b0ca…
11-03 13:40:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0xb15497…
11-03 12:59:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xe36a4e…
11-03 12:59:00	Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0xff016b…
11-03 11:52:51	Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xbf1cbd…