Hot-Belief — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$52

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

21.2%

Resolved

149

Trades

4,035

lifetime

Volume

$8.45K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-05

last 07-02 11:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

96% 29% $-62

Other

4% 12% +$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

68 active days in 12wk • peak 79 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) beat quarterly earnings?	3	$35	93	0	+93	open	—	04-29 11:32
Will Coinbase (COIN) beat quarterly earnings?	7	$32	500	150	+350	No	$-8	05-05 12:40
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	1	$20	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	06-03 06:21
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?	2	$18	285	285	+0	open	—	05-15 10:43
btc updown 5m 1774013700	2	$16	12	12	+0	open	—	03-20 13:39
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings?	7	$10	300	0	+300	open	—	04-29 15:28
Will Broadcom (AVGO) beat quarterly earnings?	5	$10	432	250	+182	open	—	06-01 18:35
Will Disney (DIS) beat quarterly earnings?	2	$10	500	0	+500	Yes	$-10	05-06 10:40
xrp updown 5m 1774311600	6	$10	29	0	+29	open	—	03-24 00:20
Will Occidental Petroleum (OXY) beat quarterly earnings?	3	$10	150	0	+150	Yes	$-10	05-05 20:13
xrp updown 5m 1774312200	2	$10	28	0	+28	open	—	03-24 00:31
btc updown 15m 1774310400	2	$9	28	0	+28	open	—	03-24 00:00
xrp updown 5m 1774312500	5	$9	27	0	+27	open	—	03-24 00:38
xrp updown 5m 1774316400	1	$9	27	0	+27	open	—	03-24 01:43
sol updown 5m 1774316400	2	$9	27	0	+27	open	—	03-24 01:44
xrp updown 15m 1774316700	1	$9	27	0	+27	open	—	03-24 01:47
btc updown 5m 1774325400	3	$9	27	0	+27	open	—	03-24 04:13
btc updown 5m 1774269900	5	$9	27	0	+27	open	—	03-23 12:46
btc updown 15m 1774269900	5	$9	27	0	+27	open	—	03-23 12:47
xrp updown 5m 1774312800	1	$9	26	0	+26	open	—	03-24 00:44
btc updown 5m 1774312800	3	$9	26	0	+26	open	—	03-24 00:40
sol updown 5m 1774316700	2	$9	26	0	+26	open	—	03-24 01:48
xrp updown 5m 1774316700	3	$9	26	0	+26	open	—	03-24 01:47
btc updown 5m 1774308000	1	$9	26	0	+26	open	—	03-23 23:21
btc updown 5m 1774326900	2	$9	26	0	+26	open	—	03-24 04:36
btc updown 5m 1774316700	2	$9	26	0	+26	open	—	03-24 01:49
btc updown 5m 1774327200	2	$9	25	0	+25	open	—	03-24 04:42
sol updown 5m 1774327200	3	$9	25	0	+25	open	—	03-24 04:42
btc updown 5m 1774273200	1	$9	25	0	+25	open	—	03-23 13:42
btc updown 5m 1774328700	3	$9	25	0	+25	open	—	03-24 05:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-02 13:32:02	btc updown 15m 1782999000	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xc476c5…
07-02 13:32:02	xrp updown 15m 1782999000	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x03d39a…
07-02 13:31:34	eth updown 15m 1782999000	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x706a28…
07-02 12:26:52	xrp updown 15m 1782994500	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xf29341…
07-02 11:21:59	xrp updown 15m 1782990900	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x524ada…
07-02 11:11:23	xrp updown 15m 1782990000	Down	BUY	1	31¢	$0	0xb2ae7c…
07-02 11:11:23	xrp updown 15m 1782990000	Down	BUY	1	31¢	$0	0xa5ad08…
07-02 11:11:23	xrp updown 15m 1782990000	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x8b58e7…
07-02 10:52:23	xrp updown 15m 1782989100	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xcd1b8c…
07-02 10:13:28	btc updown 15m 1782986400	Down	BUY	4	31¢	$1	0x8aad46…
07-02 10:13:26	btc updown 15m 1782986400	Down	BUY	1	31¢	$0	0x866b17…
07-02 09:57:26	eth updown 15m 1782985500	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x0ea99e…
07-02 09:52:37	btc updown 15m 1782985500	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xfd800a…
07-02 09:31:01	xrp updown 15m 1782984600	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x18d592…
07-02 09:30:56	eth updown 15m 1782984600	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x5e231c…
07-02 08:35:07	xrp updown 15m 1782981000	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x0e4e95…
07-02 08:16:19	btc updown 15m 1782980100	Down	BUY	2	31¢	$1	0x424a7e…
07-02 08:16:19	btc updown 15m 1782980100	Down	BUY	1	31¢	$0	0x3074a5…
07-02 08:16:19	btc updown 15m 1782980100	Down	BUY	2	31¢	$1	0x2f032c…
07-02 03:50:05	xrp updown 15m 1782963900	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x1494a7…
07-02 03:38:50	xrp updown 15m 1782963000	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x22f440…
07-02 03:38:50	eth updown 15m 1782963000	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x09dcc9…
07-02 03:34:47	btc updown 15m 1782963000	Down	BUY	0	31¢	$0	0xc0adfa…
07-02 03:34:46	btc updown 15m 1782963000	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xad7b6a…
07-02 01:47:07	eth updown 15m 1782956700	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xfa9854…
07-02 01:47:07	xrp updown 15m 1782956700	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xf26d50…
07-02 01:47:01	btc updown 15m 1782956700	Down	BUY	4	31¢	$1	0xae43ce…
07-02 01:47:01	btc updown 15m 1782956700	Down	BUY	1	31¢	$0	0x24c0f3…
07-02 01:19:05	eth updown 15m 1782954900	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x1dff65…
07-01 21:59:34	btc updown 15m 1782942300	Down	BUY	1	31¢	$0	0x31cb28…
07-01 21:59:32	btc updown 15m 1782942300	Down	BUY	2	31¢	$1	0x37da1d…
07-01 21:59:32	btc updown 15m 1782942300	Down	BUY	1	31¢	$0	0x08a68b…
07-01 21:26:22	xrp updown 15m 1782940500	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xc5843c…
07-01 21:20:04	btc updown 15m 1782940500	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x82a569…
07-01 17:37:14	eth updown 15m 1782927000	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x3b3a02…
07-01 17:37:11	xrp updown 15m 1782927000	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x53b1ca…
07-01 17:37:11	btc updown 15m 1782927000	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x401dc3…
07-01 14:10:37	eth updown 15m 1782914400	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x7248b5…
07-01 14:10:23	btc updown 15m 1782914400	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x9882f9…
07-01 12:04:05	eth updown 15m 1782907200	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x23e812…
07-01 10:42:49	xrp updown 15m 1782901800	Up	BUY	4	31¢	$1	0x8c5b57…
07-01 10:42:44	xrp updown 15m 1782901800	Up	BUY	1	31¢	$0	0x6e2efe…
07-01 10:35:49	btc updown 15m 1782901800	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x3d83cc…
07-01 10:34:28	eth updown 15m 1782901800	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xb978d3…
07-01 10:25:53	eth updown 15m 1782900900	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x9d92d1…
07-01 10:25:10	btc updown 15m 1782900900	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x122b8b…
07-01 10:24:14	xrp updown 15m 1782900900	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x8e2cd9…
07-01 09:07:11	eth updown 15m 1782896400	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x44ab63…
07-01 09:06:58	xrp updown 15m 1782896400	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xa85208…
07-01 08:33:35	eth updown 15m 1782894600	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x28372a…
07-01 06:46:20	eth updown 15m 1782888300	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$1	0xbcec8f…
07-01 06:46:19	eth updown 15m 1782888300	Up	BUY	0	31¢	$0	0xa07faa…
07-01 06:46:13	xrp updown 15m 1782888300	Up	BUY	4	31¢	$1	0xd9f576…
07-01 06:46:13	xrp updown 15m 1782888300	Up	BUY	1	31¢	$0	0x97f175…
07-01 06:34:35	btc updown 15m 1782887400	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xedb873…
07-01 06:34:35	eth updown 15m 1782887400	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x1050df…
07-01 06:18:58	btc updown 15m 1782886500	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x144e4b…
07-01 00:37:05	xrp updown 15m 1782865800	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x127e8e…
06-30 21:43:07	eth updown 15m 1782855000	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x65d1d8…
06-30 21:22:56	btc updown 15m 1782854100	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x4da827…
06-30 21:22:16	xrp updown 15m 1782854100	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x381bd9…
06-30 20:10:41	xrp updown 15m 1782849600	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x3fa51b…
06-30 12:41:41	xrp updown 15m 1782822600	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xd249df…
06-30 12:34:41	btc updown 15m 1782822600	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xd10df2…
06-30 12:33:46	eth updown 15m 1782822600	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x18dd78…
06-30 12:22:13	xrp updown 15m 1782821700	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x248a62…
06-30 12:22:02	xrp updown 15m 1782821700	Up	BUY	2	31¢	$1	0xfed0b5…
06-30 12:01:31	xrp updown 15m 1782820800	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x433e72…
06-30 11:33:32	eth updown 15m 1782819000	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x3a2768…
06-30 11:32:37	btc updown 15m 1782819000	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x925972…
06-30 08:45:41	eth updown 15m 1782809100	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x27c1af…
06-30 07:28:01	xrp updown 15m 1782803700	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x15832c…
06-30 07:27:56	btc updown 15m 1782803700	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x2bafb3…
06-30 07:27:38	btc updown 15m 1782803700	Up	BUY	0	31¢	$0	0xae6c12…
06-30 05:17:28	btc updown 15m 1782796500	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xa12d04…
06-30 05:07:44	btc updown 15m 1782795600	Up	BUY	4	31¢	$1	0x4c1309…
06-30 05:07:41	btc updown 15m 1782795600	Up	BUY	1	31¢	$0	0x265963…
06-30 04:16:47	btc updown 15m 1782792900	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xd7b023…
06-30 04:16:44	eth updown 15m 1782792900	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xb89feb…
06-30 04:16:44	xrp updown 15m 1782792900	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x3fec02…
06-30 04:07:04	xrp updown 15m 1782792000	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x7314bc…
06-30 04:02:44	btc updown 15m 1782792000	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x1b083a…
06-30 03:46:07	btc updown 15m 1782791100	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x6a6643…
06-30 02:17:16	btc updown 15m 1782785700	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xede1d8…
06-30 00:56:59	xrp updown 15m 1782780300	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x3799e3…
06-30 00:30:49	xrp updown 15m 1782779400	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x072ec3…
06-30 00:30:47	btc updown 15m 1782779400	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x0a1e5f…
06-29 21:47:41	btc updown 15m 1782769500	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x282508…
06-29 19:44:32	btc updown 15m 1782761400	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x0aceb7…
06-29 19:32:29	xrp updown 15m 1782761400	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x7434dd…
06-29 13:56:02	btc updown 15m 1782740700	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xc66cbe…
06-29 13:30:34	eth updown 15m 1782739800	Up	BUY	2	31¢	$1	0x7f40f2…
06-29 13:30:34	eth updown 15m 1782739800	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x3aff97…
06-29 12:51:41	eth updown 15m 1782737100	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x254c3c…
06-29 11:31:13	xrp updown 15m 1782732600	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x89ee5a…
06-29 11:17:58	eth updown 15m 1782731700	Up	BUY	0	31¢	$0	0xcb14fe…
06-29 11:17:58	eth updown 15m 1782731700	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$1	0x397739…
06-27 06:47:53	xrp updown 15m 1782542700	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xfc2c59…
06-27 06:47:19	eth updown 15m 1782542700	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x4353b7…
06-27 06:47:10	btc updown 15m 1782542700	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x3c450e…