Hot-Belief — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$187

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

32.0%

Resolved

3,771

Trades

5,845

lifetime

Volume

$10.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-05

last 10-27 00:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 194 days

Categories

Crypto

97% 33% -$251

Other

3% 16% +$64

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

64 active days in 12wk • peak 75 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) beat quarterly earnings?	3	$35	93	0	+93	No	+$58	04-29 11:32
Will Coinbase (COIN) beat quarterly earnings?	7	$32	500	150	+350	No	-$8	05-05 12:40
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	1	$20	5,000	0	+5,000	No	-$20	06-03 06:21
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?	2	$18	285	285	+0	Yes	+$11	05-15 10:43
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 13:35 UTC	2	$16	12	12	+0	Up	+$8	03-20 13:39
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings?	7	$10	300	0	+300	Yes	-$10	04-29 15:28
Will Broadcom (AVGO) beat quarterly earnings?	5	$10	432	250	+182	Yes	+$9	06-01 18:35
Will Disney (DIS) beat quarterly earnings?	2	$10	500	0	+500	Yes	-$10	05-06 10:40
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 00:20 UTC	6	$10	29	0	+29	Down	-$10	03-24 00:20
Will Occidental Petroleum (OXY) beat quarterly earnings?	3	$10	150	0	+150	Yes	-$10	05-05 20:13
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 00:30 UTC	2	$10	28	0	+28	Down	-$10	03-24 00:31
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-24 00:00 UTC	2	$9	28	0	+28	Down	+$18	03-24 00:00
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 00:35 UTC	5	$9	27	0	+27	Down	-$9	03-24 00:38
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 01:40 UTC	1	$9	27	0	+27	Down	-$9	03-24 01:43
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 01:40 UTC	2	$9	27	0	+27	Down	-$9	03-24 01:44
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-24 01:45 UTC	1	$9	27	0	+27	Up	+$18	03-24 01:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 04:10 UTC	3	$9	27	0	+27	Up	-$9	03-24 04:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 12:45 UTC	5	$9	27	0	+27	Up	-$9	03-23 12:46
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-23 12:45 UTC	5	$9	27	0	+27	Up	-$9	03-23 12:47
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 00:40 UTC	1	$9	26	0	+26	Down	-$9	03-24 00:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 00:40 UTC	3	$9	26	0	+26	Up	+$17	03-24 00:40
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 01:45 UTC	2	$9	26	0	+26	Down	-$9	03-24 01:48
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 01:45 UTC	3	$9	26	0	+26	Down	-$9	03-24 01:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 23:20 UTC	1	$9	26	0	+26	Up	+$17	03-23 23:21
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 04:35 UTC	2	$9	26	0	+26	Down	-$9	03-24 04:36
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 01:45 UTC	2	$9	26	0	+26	Up	+$17	03-24 01:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 04:40 UTC	2	$9	25	0	+25	Down	-$9	03-24 04:42
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 04:40 UTC	3	$9	25	0	+25	Down	-$9	03-24 04:42
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 13:40 UTC	1	$9	25	0	+25	Up	-$9	03-23 13:42
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 05:05 UTC	3	$9	25	0	+25	Down	-$9	03-24 05:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 00:25:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x3a6d9f…
10-27 00:22:33	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x8b9e15…
10-27 00:16:18	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x9fb5c4…
10-26 06:24:33	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x7aa921…
10-26 06:23:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xdd9329…
10-26 06:15:06	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x91592b…
10-25 23:30:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xbbe3a1…
10-25 23:30:18	Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x22466b…
10-25 23:30:09	XRP Up or Down - October 25, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x725147…
10-25 17:06:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x172a66…
10-24 05:33:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x6fdec4…
10-24 05:31:53	Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x1d2498…
10-23 19:23:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	0	36¢	$0	0xc2b91b…
10-23 19:23:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x757a25…
10-23 19:18:18	Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xcd9cc8…
10-23 19:18:14	XRP Up or Down - October 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xa8b163…
10-23 14:16:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xa6ed03…
10-23 14:16:23	Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x46c45f…
10-23 14:16:14	XRP Up or Down - October 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xa6f7ea…
10-23 09:31:33	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-23 09:30 UTC	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x2d739d…
10-23 09:31:27	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-23 09:30 UTC	Up	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0xc04cea…
10-23 09:31:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xb0e82b…
10-23 09:30:29	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-23 09:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xbbcd4f…
10-22 06:03:41	XRP Up or Down - October 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xd969cb…
10-22 06:00:29	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x842257…
10-22 06:00:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xf40ec9…
10-22 01:49:11	XRP Up or Down - October 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x9adfa4…
10-22 01:45:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x6e4247…
10-22 01:45:21	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x93ce62…
10-21 17:53:47	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xccc370…
10-21 17:46:53	XRP Up or Down - October 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xbadf07…
10-21 17:46:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x196cba…
10-21 07:30:00	XRP Up or Down - October 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x9d6d6a…
10-21 07:30:00	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x3de400…
10-21 07:29:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x33f006…
10-20 14:15:05	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xf9c0a3…
10-20 14:15:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x1db32f…
10-20 14:15:00	XRP Up or Down - October 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x44142f…
10-18 13:30:12	Ethereum Up or Down - October 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x0f7aac…
10-18 13:30:12	XRP Up or Down - October 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x08c1c4…
10-18 13:30:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x1d3954…
10-17 21:30:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x8cebdb…
10-17 21:30:02	Ethereum Up or Down - October 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xfb15e8…
10-17 21:30:00	XRP Up or Down - October 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x140ced…
10-17 02:37:33	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 02:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x5b44bb…
10-16 18:45:34	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 18:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xb0e405…
10-16 18:45:34	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 18:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x76c4a1…
10-16 18:45:34	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 18:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x655c16…
10-16 17:15:59	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 17:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xff1f9d…
10-16 17:15:44	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 17:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xfd5b5e…
10-16 17:15:38	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 17:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xfb6658…
10-16 16:01:04	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 16:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x68e51a…
10-16 16:00:55	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 16:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xe84b87…
10-16 16:00:52	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 16:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xfb9ca1…
10-16 11:25:33	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 11:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x552058…
10-16 11:21:25	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 11:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x5cf519…
10-16 11:19:15	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 11:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x037d12…
10-16 10:56:49	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 10:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0xcd327e…
10-16 10:56:49	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 10:45 UTC	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x93114a…
10-16 10:54:15	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 10:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x88efb0…
10-16 10:47:43	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 10:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x7b8fdd…
10-15 06:05:26	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-15 06:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x002a00…
10-15 06:05:04	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-15 06:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xcfab83…
10-15 05:16:02	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-15 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xd288db…
10-15 05:16:02	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-15 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0x75714a…
10-15 05:16:02	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-15 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x24b225…
10-15 05:16:01	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-15 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0xfdf60d…
10-15 05:15:04	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-15 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x1a1b98…
10-14 14:27:02	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 14:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x1bf74b…
10-14 14:20:02	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 14:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x941ce8…
10-14 14:19:14	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 14:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x4b9fa3…
10-14 14:00:36	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 14:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x0f7ecc…
10-14 14:00:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 14:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x43334c…
10-14 14:00:12	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 14:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xcc991f…
10-13 14:15:37	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 14:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xf4c57e…
10-13 14:15:16	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 14:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xe9363d…
10-13 14:15:16	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 14:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x9e22d1…
10-12 21:45:30	XRP Up or Down - October 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x9a15c6…
10-12 21:45:08	Ethereum Up or Down - October 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	0	36¢	$0	0x2739fe…
10-12 21:45:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x9d5a65…
10-12 21:45:05	Ethereum Up or Down - October 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xb427ee…
10-12 17:01:18	XRP Up or Down - October 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xfea0f9…
10-12 17:01:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x9d7569…
10-12 14:45:39	XRP Up or Down - October 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x4f6430…
10-12 14:45:30	Ethereum Up or Down - October 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xa9df9d…
10-12 14:45:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xb580fc…
10-12 07:03:59	Ethereum Up or Down - October 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xa99f60…
10-12 07:02:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xc3f0a7…
10-12 07:02:20	XRP Up or Down - October 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x73b373…
10-11 15:49:42	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-11 15:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xa287ae…
10-11 15:49:27	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-11 15:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x150020…
10-11 15:48:51	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-11 15:45 UTC	Down	BUY	0	36¢	$0	0x2a4dae…
10-11 15:48:49	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-11 15:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xe767d1…
10-11 15:48:37	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-11 15:45 UTC	Down	BUY	0	36¢	$0	0x1b8596…
10-11 04:00:54	XRP Up or Down - October 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x5cfbc3…
10-11 04:00:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x61e02c…
10-11 04:00:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x4e95a3…
10-10 14:30:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xd99686…
10-10 14:30:03	XRP Up or Down - October 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xa63190…
10-10 14:30:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x30ce87…