Realized P&L
-$140
Unrealized P&L
+$25
Hit rate
37.4%
Resolved
445
Trades
7,176
lifetime
Volume
$6.44K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$1
Open exposure
$504
30 positions
First seen
2026-09-02
last 09-12 13:14
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 40 days
Categories
Other
66% 18% -$23
Politics
17% 17% +$18
Sports
17% 0% -$135
Tech
0% 11% -$1
Crypto
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
10 active days in 12wk • peak 1510 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Yes +190 $96 80¢ $152 +$56 09-08 18:06
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +120 $95 99¢ $119 +$24 09-10 16:42
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting? Yes +80 $40 98¢ $78 +$38 09-09 22:22
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting? Yes +75 $23 86¢ $65 +$41 09-12 09:40
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes +190 $70 16¢ $30 -$40 09-08 18:06
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? Yes +15 $7 99¢ $15 +$8 09-10 17:46
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? Yes +10 $2 98¢ $10 +$8 09-06 00:25
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting? Yes +75 $44 12¢ $9 -$36 09-12 09:40
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? Yes +10 $4 60¢ $6 +$2 09-12 07:13
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? Yes +5 $3 74¢ $4 +$1 09-04 17:36
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? Yes +10 $5 31¢ $3 -$2 09-12 07:13
Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes +5 $2 52¢ $3 +$1 09-07 10:30
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Yes +190 $5 1¢ $2 -$3 09-08 18:06
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? Yes +190 $4 1¢ $1 -$3 09-08 18:06
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another country? Yes +190 $2 1¢ $1 -$1 09-08 18:06
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting? Yes +80 $34 1¢ $1 -$33 09-09 22:22
Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026? Yes +5 $4 18¢ $1 -$3 09-08 05:22
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +120 $21 1¢ $1 -$20 09-10 16:42
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? Yes +5 $1 13¢ $1 $0 09-04 17:36
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Yes +190 $1 0¢ $0 -$1 09-08 18:06
Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country? Yes +190 $1 0¢ $0 $0 09-08 18:06
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +120 $1 0¢ $0 $0 09-10 16:42
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? Yes +190 $3 0¢ $0 -$3 09-08 18:06
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? Yes +5 $1 6¢ $0 -$1 09-04 17:36
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus? Yes +190 $1 0¢ $0 -$1 09-08 18:06
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Finland? Yes +190 $1 0¢ $0 $0 09-08 18:06
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? Yes +190 $0 0¢ $0 $0 09-08 18:06
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 28 or 29 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes +5 $0 2¢ $0 $0 09-04 16:13
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting? Yes +15 $7 1¢ $0 -$7 09-10 17:46
Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? Yes +10 $0 1¢ $0 +$0 09-12 07:13